FWIW, the only reason I don’t have blood on my hands yet is because I missed my chance to contribute to Captain Klutz’s dunking. That being said, I’m certainly not going to be striving to dunk townies in an effort to convince FCOD (or any others of like mind) of my own townieness.
[QUOTE=Queuing]
While PR has talked a little more this day I will continue to leave my vote on him.
<snip>
[/QUOTE]
A little more? That post had me literally laughing out loud.
[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
<snip>
Of course, after I mentioned it, Pygmy Rugger helped to dunk fluiddruid. I’m not sure if that adds to my suspicion or not, but it certainly doesn’t remove any.
–FCOD
[/QUOTE]
Give me a break guys. My previous role didn’t help lynch -anybody-. I know you can’t simply forget that they didn’t talk much, but it’s not like they were lurking, they weren’t even following the thread.
I will address amrussel’s post in a couple hours, I’ve got some stuff to do first this afternoon, and that may take me a while. 
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
I think we all need to re-read the rules. **Pygmy ** see the above post regarding the Alchemist. The Psychopath will read as such only if he/she has been activated…otherwise investigates as “Non-believer”.
[/QUOTE]
Right. But if the Psychopath isn’t activated, ey’s a regular nonbeliever, so that point is moot.
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
So we probably have one of these three options:
- Psychopath activation
- Attack on the Doctor
- Attack on the Disciple
The first option should be easy to discern. If on the next Night we have two deaths, it’ll be the Psychopath for sure. The other two options mean, sadly enough, that the Cultist have (indirectly) identified yet another Power Role.
[/QUOTE]
You’re assuming that the Priest(Doctor) and Disciple are protecting themselves and not somebody else.
–FCOD
[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
You’re assuming that the Priest(Doctor) and Disciple are protecting themselves and not somebody else.
–FCOD
[/QUOTE]
As far as I know, it’s Standard Operating Procedure.
I know in M4 it didn’t work that way. But that was because on Day 2 most of the Power Roles had to out themselves.
Right now, it makes far more sense for them to self-protect. Mostly because:
- The Alchemist hasn’t been targeted so far. And she has a role that is more likely to be detrimental for the town than for the Cultists
- Even though one of the Monks has claimed, he also hadn’t been targeted.
- While he is alive he is, conceivably, subject to protection by the Priest and/or the Disciple (though I don’t think that would be a good strategy). And by targeting someone else they could catch one of them off-guard. I think that would be the scenario the Cult would be hoping for
I agree with those who have said that we can’t make any decent determination regarding what happened last night with the information that we have at present.
I remain more suspicious of DiggitCamara than anyone else, for the same reasons as yesterday, most of which amrussell has already nicely laid out. I think Diggit’s Crusader investigation was a front to permit him to mark time without incurring suspicion, and that the fact that he so readily and silently dropped Idle Thoughts from the list of suspects that was nominally the focus of his attention is evidence that we was less than sincere about the list. If Diggit does turn out to be scum, I think Idle will have some difficult questions to answer.
Here’s hoping that this is a twofer: Vote DiggitCamara
Another assumption that seems to be being made by some is that there will be two deaths if the Psycopath has been activated. Once/if the Psycopath is activated, the Cultists may choose a no-kill to use that assumption against us, or they could hit a protected role and fail, or they could convert, or they could attempt to convert and fail.
But they wouldn’t know they’d activated the Psychopath until everybody else knew it too, right? I thought they didn’t get any insider information about why their kill failed?
[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]
But they wouldn’t know they’d activated the Psychopath until everybody else knew it too, right? I thought they didn’t get any insider information about why their kill failed?
[/QUOTE]
Yeah. And I don’t see much benefit for them in trying to deceive us anyhow. The Psychopath is would be working on the same information most of us have (non-Cultists, of course) and would be more likely to target citizens than Cultist.
That would work for them, not against them. And since they would KNOW who the Psychopath was, they could kill him/her any Night they chose too, if it fit their plans.
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Another assumption that seems to be being made by some is that there will be two deaths if the Psycopath has been activated. Once/if the Psycopath is activated, the Cultists may choose a no-kill to use that assumption against us, or they could hit a protected role and fail, or they could convert, or they could attempt to convert and fail.
[/QUOTE]
It’s more a case of, if there are two bodies then we definitely know the Psychopath is active, if not we don’t have time or data to second guess all the other options.
[QUOTE=amrussell]
<snip>
It’s not just the move from “batting 80%” to “100% accurate 70% of the time”. That smacks of someone who posted off the top of their head, then went to look it up. By itself, fine. But to then smear someone for making the same mistake you made in your previous post…!<snip>
[/QUOTE]
Please allow me to clarify this point. When I said “batting 80%”, I meant that the investigation would either be a hit, or a miss. In baseball, you can’t get “on base” wrong, if you will. So, yes, I did get the number wrong, but the spirit of the post still stands. There is a huge difference between this mistake and the one USCDiver made. It is pretty confusing, though, so I’m willing to forgive him on this point.
[QUOTE=amrussell]
OK, some thoughts:
3)USCDiver’s point about us getting close to the prophet is a good one - if we believe there was an attempt at recruitment.
- I’m finding Pygmy Rugger’s vote for Hockey Monkey increasingly suspicious. Here’s why:
Fairy early toDay, we’ve seen a consensus develop that we shouldn’t let ourselves obsess over recruitment - bear it in mind as a possibility, but no more so than any of the other options. Now, that consensus is certainly not binding on anyone - but Pygmy Rugger has not only kept his focus on a possible recruitment, he’s decided that it happened and that he knows exactly who the target was. He’s even voted based on this (admitting it’s a gut call). I’d like to ask: a) Why are you so certain recruitment happened; b) why don’t you want to wait to see if other possibilities play out; c) why do you think the alternative strategy advocated by others is not worth following?
[/QUOTE]
a) Like I said, it’s just a gut. Last night seems to me like it would have been their best chance to do so. More on that later.
b) I’ve placed one vote, out of 18. There’s still plenty of time in the day for me, and others, to explore other possibilities.
c) What alternative strategy? I read that as you saying there’s one alternative strategy being advocated. I see two to three groups of thought right now. Obviously, at least one must be influenced by scum in some way. When one strategy comes across to me as being head and shoulders above the others, I’ll support it. Right now I don’t know if the two to three groups are scum vs. scum, scum vs. town, or town vs. town.
[QUOTE=amrussell]
<snip>
Really? Of the 18 left, let’s say only 13 are town. If we posit Priest, Disciple and 3 living monks, that gives an 8/13 shot at hitting a convertible player: 62%. If the scum had killed a vanilla last night, and we were to go on to lynch another one toDay, that’s still 6/11 convertibles (54%). For me, that looks like quite a few opportunities.<snip>
For the record, I dislike when I give an opinion and am asked “Really?” Yes, I really think that, or I wouldn’t have said it. That being said, yes, I really think that the scum, if they chose to use their recruitment, would have done so last night. 62% is not very good odds at a one time only event, and 54% is even worse. It could be assumed that they’d want to recruit now, since that 8/13 or 6/11 number is going to drop even lower once the Alchemist comes forward.
Now, keep in mind that if the Alchemist does claim, they shouldn’t say “so and so is the Priest”, but they should say, "I have confirmed so and so as a pro town role. What this does is limit the scum’s pool even further, because they’d have no use in recruiting a nonconfirmed townie after the Alchemist claims. As I’ve said before, after the Alchemist claims, all we have to do is take out those that came up non-believer. Theoretically, that will leave us with the Priest, Disciple, Apprentice, Monks, and the Prophet at the end game. Assuming two Monks left, that gives us 5 nights to use to find the Prophet. With all the non-believers gone, that would seem like pretty good odds to me!
Not edited to fix:
[QUOTE=amrussell]
<snip>
Really? Of the 18 left, let’s say only 13 are town. If we posit Priest, Disciple and 3 living monks, that gives an 8/13 shot at hitting a convertible player: 62%. If the scum had killed a vanilla last night, and we were to go on to lynch another one toDay, that’s still 6/11 convertibles (54%). For me, that looks like quite a few opportunities.<snip>
[/QUOTE]
For the record, I dislike when I give an opinion and am asked “Really?” Yes, I really think that, or I wouldn’t have said it. That being said, yes, I really think that the scum, if they chose to use their recruitment, would have done so last night. 62% is not very good odds at a one time only event, and 54% is even worse. It could be assumed that they’d want to recruit now, since that 8/13 or 6/11 number is going to drop even lower once the Alchemist comes forward.
Now, keep in mind that if the Alchemist does claim, they shouldn’t say “so and so is the Priest”, but they should say, "I have confirmed so and so as a pro town role. What this does is limit the scum’s pool even further, because they’d have no use in recruiting a nonconfirmed townie after the Alchemist claims. As I’ve said before, after the Alchemist claims, all we have to do is take out those that came up non-believer. Theoretically, that will leave us with the Priest, Disciple, Apprentice, Monks, and the Prophet at the end game. Assuming two Monks left, that gives us 5 nights to use to find the Prophet. With all the non-believers gone, that would seem like pretty good odds to me!
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
a) Like I said, it’s just a gut. Last night seems to me like it would have been their best chance to do so. More on that later.
b) I’ve placed one vote, out of 18. There’s still plenty of time in the day for me, and others, to explore other possibilities.
c) What alternative strategy? I read that as you saying there’s one alternative strategy being advocated. I see two to three groups of thought right now. Obviously, at least one must be influenced by scum in some way. When one strategy comes across to me as being head and shoulders above the others, I’ll support it. Right now I don’t know if the two to three groups are scum vs. scum, scum vs. town, or town vs. town.
[QUOTE=amrussell]
<snip>
Really? Of the 18 left, let’s say only 13 are town. If we posit Priest, Disciple and 3 living monks, that gives an 8/13 shot at hitting a convertible player: 62%. If the scum had killed a vanilla last night, and we were to go on to lynch another one toDay, that’s still 6/11 convertibles (54%). For me, that looks like quite a few opportunities.<snip>
For the record, I dislike when I give an opinion and am asked “Really?” Yes, I really think that, or I wouldn’t have said it. That being said, yes, I really think that the scum, if they chose to use their recruitment, would have done so last night. 62% is not very good odds at a one time only event, and 54% is even worse. It could be assumed that they’d want to recruit now, since that 8/13 or 6/11 number is going to drop even lower once the Alchemist comes forward.
Now, keep in mind that if the Alchemist does claim, they shouldn’t say “so and so is the Priest”, but they should say, "I have confirmed so and so as a pro town role. What this does is limit the scum’s pool even further, because they’d have no use in recruiting a nonconfirmed townie after the Alchemist claims. As I’ve said before, after the Alchemist claims, all we have to do is take out those that came up non-believer. Theoretically, that will leave us with the Priest, Disciple, Apprentice, Monks, and the Prophet at the end game. Assuming two Monks left, that gives us 5 nights to use to find the Prophet. With all the non-believers gone, that would seem like pretty good odds to me!
[/QUOTE]
Do you mean the Apprentice? :dubious:
PR, are you talking about the Apprentice or the Alchemist?
–FCOD
Yeah, sorry guys. I got a little excited because I think I’m on to something. 
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
A little more? That post had me literally laughing out loud.
[/QUOTE]
Care to say why? Or are you to busy acting like a petulant little boy? Yes you are posting more right now. You have been in this game for 3 Days now. On the first Day you said you couldn’t do anything. On the 2nd Day you posted a bunch of fluff, were called on it, and then shut up. Now it is Day 3 and you are posting more. What is so funny about this?
FTR you are posting more, I am aware of it. FTR I will hold you accountable for your previous incarnations. One real life day of activity does not convince me you are a believer, particularly when your vote is on someone who is most likely not scum. Voting for a claimed role is not particularly helpful. Role claims can always be dealt with later. It is the unknowns we need to focus on, particularly quiet ones (IMO). Hence my focus is on YOU.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
For the record, I dislike when I give an opinion and am asked “Really?”
[/QUOTE]
Sorry, I didn’t mean to be rude. What I was trying to get at was that it’d be nice to understand why you thought that, rather than just knowing that you did. (And of course you have explained now, so that’s OK)
looking up petulant No, Queuing, I’m not trying to be rude. I really did laugh out loud. On my first Day, I was still catching up. On my second, I was acquainting myself with the town. Things have now actually happened since I started playing, so I’m able to comment on them in real time. I’m not going to change your mind, so I’m not going to bring it up anymore.
[QUOTE=amrussell]
Sorry, I didn’t mean to be rude. What I was trying to get at was that it’d be nice to understand why you thought that, rather than just knowing that you did. (And of course you have explained now, so that’s OK)
[/QUOTE]
[outofgame]No biggie, I didn’t think you were rude. Just a little raw from the way dnooman said the same thing in Crazyville. Don’t sweat it, I shouldn’t have mentioned it. :)[/oog]
Oh, and concerning Queuing’s point that my vote is currently on a claimed non scum power role, and considering it doesn’t look like I’ll be able to convince anybody with my gut, shooting from the hip, I’m going to unvote Hockey Monkey. I still think I’m on to something with that one, too, though. If I’m still alive in a couple days, I may come back to this one.