I’d like the apprentice to claim if and only if they’ve caught the prophet.
The Prophet investigates as ‘Believer’.
Now if the Apprentice has identified the Avatar (the only role that he can be 100% accurate on now), he should try to whip up as much fervor to dunk him as possible to hopefully lure in as many ‘scum voting for scum’ as possible.
But he obviously shouldn’t advertise as such. And frankly I can’t think of a reason why the Apprentice should even so much as stick their head out right now. Their investigations are only 70% accurate (not 80%). I’m suspicious of anyone who says otherwise.
FOS Zeriel and Pygmy Rugger
USC:
Why the FOS on Zeriel?
Why do you say the Avatar the only role the Apprentice can be 100% accurate on now? I think I understand your intent, but although the Apprentice can’t confirm scum (since nonbelievers and cultists investigate the same), he can confirm believers. True, the Prophet will investigate as believer, but if you consider the Prophet to be a believer while you get rid of all nonbelievers, the odds will be pretty good if, for example, there are three believers and the Prophet at the end of the game.
Also, another important point, with the Oracle dead, the Apprentice is now 100% accurate 70% of the time (assuming Hal never investigated em), or gets a blank reading! So, the investigations that garner information are more useful than the 70% figure. I’m wondering if you don’t understand the rules, or are intentionally convoluting them to dishonestly sway others opinions.
If the Apprentice has found the Avatar, and shares this knowledge with the town, do you really expect them to trip over themselves to make sure their votes lie with em?
Oh, and upon further rules review, the Priest, Disciple, Monk, Alchemist, Psychopath investigate as such.
And why, USCDiver, do you FoS me for saying the Apprentice should share their information with the town, before it’s too late, and did not FoS Hockey Monkey when she mentioned it?
Bad logic is not necessarily scum logic, but I’m very surprised at your statements on the subject.
Okay, well…the time has come for me now. I will be heading to Chicago all this week…
…However, unlike sach, I will be able to post while I’m away, although not as often as I do now. I should be able to get on about an hour or so each day, with the exception of the days I fly out (tomorrow) and fly back (next Tuesday).
But anyway, I figure I’ll be able to make at least one or two posts a day for the next week. I’ll certainly try to check in as much as I can and catch up.
Right now, though, it seems there’s less and less to catch up on as the game goes on and while I hope this doesn’t continue to be the case too much, I can’t do much to help it all by myself either. Especailly now that I’ll be away.
So for now, just in case I don’t have time to later, I’m going to vote DiggitCamara for the second time this game. Really, in my mind right now, it’s between him and Mal for who I think at least my vote lies best with. Both have been pinging my meter a lot in the game, one since the beginning and one, more recently, in the last few Days since his resurrection. I still feel, personally, that he’s the best choice for for vote placement. For explaination, just read over my last two Days of explanations, starting with a post at the top of page 47.
For now, though, I must get home and get packing. I will be back online on Wednesday.
Take care all.
OK, some thoughts:
-
There’s nothing in the rules as I read them to suggest that the Alchemist loses any powers through being converted. The Oracle and Apprentice are specifically mentioned as suffering this, but no one else.
-
Pleonast’s role-claim stands or falls on whether we discover another secret role. At this stage, we certainly shouldn’t be trying to “out” that person, but going into the end-game, a rival role-claim will give us a confirmed scum. I found Pleonast very suspicious, but I think we’ve still got some time to play with, and don’t want to rush something we might regret.
3)USCDiver’s point about us getting close to the prophet is a good one - if we believe there was an attempt at recruitment.
- I’m finding Pygmy Rugger’s vote for Hockey Monkey increasingly suspicious. Here’s why:
Fairy early toDay, we’ve seen a consensus develop that we shouldn’t let ourselves obsess over recruitment - bear it in mind as a possibility, but no more so than any of the other options. Now, that consensus is certainly not binding on anyone - but Pygmy Rugger has not only kept his focus on a possible recruitment, he’s decided that it happened and that he knows exactly who the target was. He’s even voted based on this (admitting it’s a gut call). I’d like to ask: a) Why are you so certain recruitment happened; b) why don’t you want to wait to see if other possibilities play out; c) why do you think the alternative strategy advocated by others is not worth following?
From the logic that made **Hockey Monkey ** the target of conversion:
Really? Of the 18 left, let’s say only 13 are town. If we posit Priest, Disciple and 3 living monks, that gives an 8/13 shot at hitting a convertible player: 62%. If the scum had killed a vanilla last night, and we were to go on to lynch another one toDay, that’s still 6/11 convertibles (54%). For me, that looks like quite a few opportunities.
Also:
It’s not just the move from “batting 80%” to “100% accurate 70% of the time”. That smacks of someone who posted off the top of their head, then went to look it up. By itself, fine. But to then smear someone for making the same mistake you made in your previous post…!
Basically, both the vote for Hockey Monkey and the smear on **USCDiver ** come over as skin-saving distraction. Given that **USCDiver ** made the point about us being close to the prophet, and pointed to Pygmy Rugger as a potential candidate, this looks like an attempt to discredit his accuser.
So basically, I’ve found most of Pygmy Rugger’s posts toDay to be incredibly suspicious. However, as much of it is based on the “emergency recruitment” theory, and as I don’t want to let the possibility of recruitment distract me too much, I’m willing to wait one Day. This theory can be falsified by the appearance of two bodies at the next Dawn. Should that happen, we know the Psychopath is active. If it doesn’t, won’t have enough data to tell if last Night was a recruitment or a blocked attack, so I’ll vote then.
I do have a vote to make toDay, but this post is already too long. More to follow…
My suspicions (other than above) currently fall on DiggitCamara and MHaye. DiggitCamara for:
a) yesterDay’s vote for Kyrie. He claimed it showed “perfect knowledge” and was an attempt at ingratiation. Because this is begging the question of his own innocence, I find it scummy
b) The Crusader-killer list: at first perhaps understandable but it was never a convincing argument, and his initial post misrepresented the actual conversation. The fact that he didn’t work through the list, but went straight to voting Kyrie after accepting Zeriel’s role-claim (when he should, by his own logic, have had just as strong suspicion’s of Idle Thoughts) makes the exercise seem like a false rationale for making votes. His explanation for dropping any suspicion of Idle was not convincing to me.
MHaye for:
a) low participation (initially, though this has picked up recently)
b) one of the names on SCL’s fatal post
c) safe, late voting
I also had a look at Malacandra last night. It didn’t take long - there are basically no substantive posts. When I first looked at Mal, I was inclined to give the benefit of the doubt because of his early faux pas - I thought he was trying to keep his head down. But it’s gone on too long: I think Mal is smart enough to know that a good town player will post analysis and votes. He tends to vote late, with little analysis. I’m rapidly coming round to the idea that he is scum.
For now vote DiggitCamara.
Something definitely stinks to high-heaven between USC, Pygmy, HM, Malacandra, and Pleonast. We have a couple days to suss it out but I’ll for now ** vote: USCDiver**
What in the hell made him FOS Zeriel?
And a huge FOS: Malacandra, Hockey Monkey, Pygmy Rugger
I’m not sure which part of this post by Blaster Master was unclear. Post #5.
I’m a little confused about Pygmy Rugger’s vote for me as well. He votes for me, then agrees with my post about the Apprentice. (FTR, I said it may be a bad idea, but I thought it was worth a discussion. I was neither advocating or bashing the idea, just wanted to know what other people thought at this point in the game.) He didn’t quote the post or make any mention of the fact that I brought it up, I suppose to distance himself from the fact that he just voted for me. 
I now believe both USC and Pygmy are scum, and USC is selling out Pygmy as the prophet. I’m good with hanging either one of them.
I think we all need to re-read the rules. **Pygmy ** see the above post regarding the Alchemist. The Psychopath will read as such only if he/she has been activated…otherwise investigates as “Non-believer”.
My stupid fault - I read the full descriptions, in post 2, and thought they covered everything. Sorry.
zuma, could you expand a little on why you think **USC ** is scum, please? Is it just the FOS on Zeriel (which I agree is odd, given his roleclaim) or is there something else you’ve noticed?
Because he was advocating that the Apprentice should role-claim. However in retrospect that was, I think, a misconception on his part that the Apprentice could positively identify the Prophet.
This was an important nuance I missed, my apologies, but you are right. It definitely makes the Apprentice much more useful than I had previously thought and now I have to rethink my position on him absolutely not roleclaiming. I was under the impression that the Apprentice would still be inaccurate (ie getting incorrect readings). With this new (for me) information, I think it’s important as always for the Apprenctice to drop breadcrumbs but I’m still not convinced s/he should role claim and publish their results.
Color removed. My reason for FOS is noted above, but probably a mistake. There’s nothing going on between us, but I definitely continue my suspicion of Malacandra
remove FOS for Zeriel and Pygmy Rugger
I was asked if the Alchemist loses his powers upon recruitment. There is a contradiction between my extended role explanations and the condensed ones. It was my intention that the Alchemist will lose his powers upon conversion. In fact, to further clarify, the Alchemist, Apprentice, Psychopath, Crusader, and Oracle (not that the last two matter 
) all lose their powers upon recruitment.
I am sure this will surprise no one but IMO the apprentice should only reveal whenever the hell they think it is the best for them to do so. Any discussion of the apprentice should be avoided.
While PR has talked a little more this day I will continue to leave my vote on him.
My list in order of FOS:
PR (we know why)
mhaye (late votes that are always safe, if I decide to remove my vote from PR this is where is goes now)
malacandra (Hal thing, as well as being rather quiet)
Fretful (again for his voting record, it is strange that he has been vote 1 so many times)
Kyrie (clockwork jackal was very scummy but it was day1)
I think the most likely scenario to explain last night’s no-kill is a protection by the Priest or the Oracle. I’m guessing the Cult tried to kill Hockey Monkey, and she was protected. I doubt that the Cult would attempt a recruitment at this time, and the chance of an Alchemist block is pretty slim.
Right now, I’m comfortable enough with keeping my vote the same as yesterDay: vote Pygmy Rugger. I will also FOS Cookies, as I think one of them is in the cult. To reiterate my reasoning: **Pygmy **and **Cookies **were the only two players that had not helped to dunk a Citizen. I know that it seems backwards to want to dunk players that haven’t dunked Citizens, but I think it’s a good hiding place for a scum.
Of course, after I mentioned it, Pygmy Rugger helped to dunk fluiddruid. I’m not sure if that adds to my suspicion or not, but it certainly doesn’t remove any.
–FCOD
I’m pretty sure we can discard the recruitment attempt. It would be too risky for the Cultist to use it while they haven’t identified all the power roles left in the game and, like the scum in M3 argued, it is a power best left to the end of the game.
So we probably have one of these three options:
- Psychopath activation
- Attack on the Doctor
- Attack on the Disciple
The first option should be easy to discern. If on the next Night we have two deaths, it’ll be the Psychopath for sure. The other two options mean, sadly enough, that the Cultist have (indirectly) identified yet another Power Role.
The good thing is that the Cultists have no way to know whom they identified yet.
My suspicions about Kyrie remain the same, though, so I’ll vote Kyrie
Just because you brought up an idea that I agree with doesn’t mean I don’t think you were recruited last night. My reason is a pure gut feeling about the events of last night. If I can’t get any support for the idea, I’m willing to change my vote Today. I did, however, want to make sure people paid attention to my theory. Hence the vote.