Isn’t that what I said? In a game without recruitment after a no kill you would normally consider all the possibilities equally viable until you had reason to believe otherwise.
I wasn’t sure if we should be giving extra attention to the possibility of recruitment or not. She seems to be saying not.
Ah, gotcha. When you said we should treat it the same way as a no-kill night in any other game, I thought you meant ignoring the possibility of recruitment entirely (since that possibility doesn’t exist in an ordinary game), which didn’t make much sense to me.
Those of you who have played in games with recruitment before, were you able to tell, or did the recruited players stay reasonably consistent in their posting style?
Well, if the Cult attempted to recruit, who would they target?
The best strategy would be for them to recruit the Apprentice, I think. The twisted wretch could then roleclaim and provide false data. Given that we don’t expect the data to be 100% accurate, this could be very difficult to detect and could easily see us lynching townies and/or giving scum a pass. However: there’s only one conversion attempt, so they’d have to be pretty sure they were right, otherwise they’ve wasted their chance. Up till now, it seems like they’ve been trying to kill the Apprentice. Did something happen to make them sure they were right last night?
Priests, Disciples and Monks cannot be converted. The only other role to target would be the Alchemist. I can see some advantages to the scum in co-opting the blocking role, but it only works if they know who to block. (Unless they’re very greedy, and want the gold.)
The other strategy would be to convert the most trusted person in the town. To the extent that we’ve accurately identified townies, we’ve given ourselves an advantage. Undoing that through conversion throws out all our analysis on one player, and leaves us starting from scratch.
However, we don’t even know if they’ve recruited. As a result, if we focus too much on this possibility, we’re trapped into second-guessing ourselves, and in a worst-case, lynching an innocent and trusted townie. I strongly suggest we keep thoughts about recruitment at the back of our mind. Especially toDay, as we could find out at Dawn tomorrow that the Psychopath is activated, in which case all of toDay’s speculation will be wasted.
On preview, I could cut this down to “What Cookies said”. That’ll teach me to get called away.
One more thought though: If the Alchemist performed a block last night, do we want to know the name of the target? If the scum failed because of a successful block, then the Alchemist has identified a Cultist. On the other hand, if the Alchemist blocked a townie and the scum no-killed for other reasons, that would be dangerously misleading. What do people think?
I’m probably the last person that you’d want to ask after Game 3. I did not notice any change in posting style of The Recruit. In fact, I was actually more suspicious of The Recruit prior to the recruitment, and resisted making a firm decision about The Recruit’s identity until the bitter end, even though it was quite obvious (in hindsight) that the alternatives couldn’t have been recruited.
Well, it’s good that we didn’t lose anyone last night. No sense rehashing what has already been hashed about the reasons. I agree with** Idle Thoughts** on whether or not to publicly tell if I excercised my action last night. So for now, I’ll stay zipped.
This may be a bad idea, but I’ll throw it out there for consideration. We’ve come to a point now that it could be beneficial for the Apprentice to come forward, but only if he/she has been able to get a couple of good reads on people. It would also serve to narrow the pool that we should be looking for scum in. Like I said, I don’t know if this is a good idea or not, but I’d like to discuss it and what repercussions it could have.
I need to add that my pre-recruitment suspicions of The Recruit in Game 3 had nothing to do with posting style/frequency/tone (or changes thereof) and everything to do with piss-poor attempted analysis of a town-killing bandwagon.
In regards to **amrussell ** about the recruitment…it’s my understanding that the recruited person will lose any night abilities that they had previous to the recruitment. IOW, if I had been recruited, I would no longer have any night powers. If they did try to recruit last night, I think they would have gone after a person who seemed to be trusted by the town, but they would have to be very sure that the person was not One Who Cannot Be Recruited. I don’t have that good of a read on anybody yet, and the pool of those available is getting small. Would they have risked it? I am more willing to entertain a Psychopath activation right now over a recruitment.
Yeah, I’m inclined to agree. Recruitment is the hardest for us to deal with, so we immediately start thinking about it - but that doesn’t make it likely. The question to ask is, “Why would the scum risk their one shot at recruitment now?” If someone’s got a compelling reason, fine - but otherwise, it’s not worth fretting over.
So - back to analysis and voting. Having been completely wrong about fluiddruid, I will say that my FOS is still pointed at Pygmy Rugger, Mhaye and DiggitCamara. I’ll try and have a more detailed look tonight.
Ok, I can think of one compelling reason to attempt the recruitment (possibly prematurely) and that is if we were getting close to identifying and lynching the Prophet. We may have scared the cultists into using their recruiting power before they really wanted to because they were worried we’d lynch the Prophet toDay and they’d lose the ability permanently.
That’s not to say they didn’t try and get blocked (or recruit an un-recruitable), but we could look at the 2nd and 3rd vote-getters yesterDay in more detail toDay (Pygmy Rugger and Malacandra).
my FOS is still on Malacandra
I’m taking fluiddruid’s advice and trying to change my perspective on how I approach this, since our current scum-catching methods are clearly not working.
So far re-reading the thread while trying to clear my mind of the usual suspects has been rather entertaining. More to follow when I have time.
I have seen nothing to change my mind so far. There is something suspicious about the role.
Dunk Pygmy Rugger
From next week, I should be free to read and post in the daytime as well as evenings during the working week. This should up my participation a bit (although I do have to keep up my jobhunting). However, first I have to get through this week. This Day ends before my commitment does, so I’m still strapped for time Today.
On last night; while remembering to keep it in mind as a possibility, I’m going to operate on the assumption that the Cult did not try a recruitment last night. The possibility of wasting it is too high right now.
I’m going to bring my post analysis of my two remaining subjects up to date, and maybe run a third Today. We’ll see how it goes.
I’ll do DiggitCamara[sub]2[/sub] first as he’s fairly up to date. I last looked at him in post [post=8839535]2514[/post]. Since then he has posted a few times.
He replies to my comment about the twinge I outlined in 2514 in [post=8839686]his very next post[/post].
[post=8839876]2519[/post] : He’s eased back on the “Crusader-outing” challenges in view of other players reactions.
[post=8840488]2527[/post] : IT accuses him of a slip, and he wishes to know what he means. IT explains in 2528; DC then replies in [post=8840615]2529[/post] explains that yes he did skip the post – everyone does that from time to time. Post [post=8841120]2536[/post] seems to mark the end of this exchange (at least from DC’s point of view.)
[post=8840629]2530[/post] : Suggests that Kyrie’s “perfect information” allegation was one intended to make Kyrie seem clean.
[post=8841129]2537[/post] : Responding to zuma[sub]2[/sub] who didn’t like being drawn into the argument between him and IT on spurious grounds.
That’s DC covered up to the end of Day Six. My conclusions remain the same as before, but with even less to put my finger on.
I expected to see a post similar to this from Hockey Monkey today. After I read that there had been no night kill, my first thought was that the Cult got Hockey, and here’s why:
In my opinion, the scum have been going after the Apprentice for the last few nights. When I jumped into the game, the first Day (the one I didn’t have a chance to cast a vote in), this post caught my eye:
This, to me, looked like HazelNutCoffee was trying to leave a breadcrumb. She didn’t wake up the next Morning. I think the scum eliminated the pool of people they thought was the Apprentice, and decided to convert. With the Priest and Disciple still left alive, the scum were getting very close to not having anybody who wasn’t unconvertable left. So, I think the scum decided to take HockeyMonkey. She’s the only outed known power role on the table right now, and I think the scum used last night as their best chance to recruit her. Since her role claim has been accepted by the town, the scum probably thought she was a safe bet.
Call it gut, if you will, but I’m going to Vote Hockey Monkey.
Well, your gut is wrong. If I had been converted, I probably wouldn’t have even posted anything yet, much less about recruiting. There is another power role to consider…Pleonast. But as I said, I think the Psychopath was activated last night. If so, the Cult can use his/her kill tomorrow night as cover for a real recruitment attempt.
And about the only person who fits that profile right now would be you :dubious:
Just sayin…
In any event, it wouldn’t fit their pattern of what looks to be attempting to kill the apprentice. But if they attempted a recruit last night, amrussell brings up a good point that maybe they were worried their godfather might be in trouble today.
I’m not sure exactly what to make of this yet, but by tomorrow we’ll have a better idea of whether or not it was a psychopath activation.
I’m going to take another look at the top vote-getters of yesterday. It won’t surprise anyone that my favorite is Malacandra, but I too will take fluiddruid’s advice and step back and try to look at things a little differently today.
It was USC who brought up the prophet thing, not amrussell… Sorry for the misattribution.
Or, you’d post right away about recruiting so that you’d be able to say you wouldn’t. WIFOM, I know…
Concerning Pleonast, would you try to kill or recruit a claimed role of “Martyr”? I hate to speculate about this, but it’s crossed my mind that Pleo is similar to the Avtar, but on the town’s side. If this is true, he didn’t tell us because he’s hoping he gets night killed and the town gets a one to one trade.
You know, speaking of Pleonast, when I attacked Mal for his hasty vote after the Pleonast role claim, I mentioned that we’d have to have a Pleonast discussion eventually.
While I see no reason yet to disbelieve his claim that he is the secret role, we can’t forget that we don’t know his alignment. Would a Pleonast investigation make any sense? Probably not yet, but as far as he’s concerned, I’m not putting him on my confirmed town list any time soon.
I don’t think so. Who knows if the investigation will show his true role or not. Since the Apprentice is only batting 80% right now, it seems like it’d be a waste of an investigation.
I echo the sentiment that it may be a good time for the Apprentice to out them self. The doctor can then protect them tonight. If there’s a counterclaim, we’ll know ToNight who was telling the truth, and we’ll get plenty of confirmed info, plus an extra Cultist in the process.
I was talking about a possible recruitment of Pleonast. Maybe I was a too obvious choice??? I didn’t think the town was fully on board with me in the trust department. The overall vibe I get is a grudging acceptance in the absence of a counter-claim. It’s OK…I can’t expect to be trusted till I’m dead. If you all want to kill me today to find out, that’s fine, but it will be a mistake we can ill afford.