[QUOTE=Queuing]
I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:
[/QUOTE]
Well, seems simple to me:
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Well, seems simple to me:
So that gives Tonight with the Preist (if available), tomorrow (or until MHaye is targeted, and Pleo dies instead) with Pleonast, and the next day 50/50 with the Priest. That gives us 2.5 more investigations, IF PLEONAST IS TELLING THE TRUTH.
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Let’s exemplify.
A single coin toss has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.
However, the chance of having three heads in a row is:
1/2 ^3 = .125 (12.5 percent)
In our case, we have an overbalanced coin, with 2/3 chances of coming up heads (or a “correct” diagnosis)
2/3^3=0.296296 (29.62 percent)
In other words, the chance of getting the “correct” diagnosis three times in a row is roughly 30 percent. 2 times right, one time wrong is not an unexpected result for the three first Nights.
That said, I do agree that for everyone who’s not me the best course of action is to lynch me, since I’m the only one who came up “non-Believer”.
And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our “Martyr”'s role claim to the test.
[/QUOTE]
There is, of course, the possiblity that he got one of them wrong. In fact the chances are that one of them is wrong.
However, that does not mean that he got your reading wrong. It is just as likely that he misread one of the other candidates.
So showing how accurate or not **MHaye ** was on each night.
DiggitCamara: non-believer 70/30
FluidDruid: believer 80/20
HazelNutCoffee: believer 78/22
In other words, the most likely option is, regardless of his accuracy, is that you are what he says you are.
Remember, every time you come to toss a coin, the chance is always 50/50.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
So that gives Tonight with the Preist (if available), tomorrow (or until MHaye is targeted, and Pleo dies instead) with Pleonast, and the next day 50/50 with the Priest. That gives us 2.5 more investigations, IF PLEONAST IS TELLING THE TRUTH.
[/QUOTE]
… and if not, he dies. It’s a win-win situation.
Any other deal (if, for instance, the scum don’t target him or try to recruit the Apprentice, or others) would give us even more investigations.
By the way, the Disciple definitely should protect MHaye (unless his claim is proven wrong, somehow), and at the same time the Martyr should “protect” him… That way, even one of their abilities fails (the Apprentice has a 50% chance, right?), somehow, the other’s ability should kick in.
I’m going to go ahead and switch my vote now to bring us up to 8, but I’m still highly suspicious of Pygmy Rugger and she gets my vote first thing Tomorrow.
unvote Pygmy Rugger
vote DiggitCamara
Unofficial Vote count:
DiggitCamara (8) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FlyingCowOfDoom, Pygmy Rugger, Zeriel, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, HockeyMonkey, USCDiver
Hockey Monkey (1) - CatinaSuit
Pleonast - DiggitCamara
[QUOTE=USCDiver]
I’m going to go ahead and switch my vote now to bring us up to 8, but I’m still highly suspicious of Pygmy Rugger and she gets my vote first thing Tomorrow.
[/QUOTE]
FYI: Pygmy Rugger = male.
–FCOD
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
… and if not, he dies. It’s a win-win situation.
Any other deal (if, for instance, the scum don’t target him or try to recruit the Apprentice, or others) would give us even more investigations.
By the way, the Disciple definitely should protect MHaye (unless his claim is proven wrong, somehow), and at the same time the Martyr should “protect” him… That way, even one of their abilities fails (the Apprentice has a 50% chance, right?), somehow, the other’s ability should kick in.
[/QUOTE]
It’s not that simple. If he’s lying, we lose a couple nights with the Apprentice that could be very valuable in the end game. IMO, we need one more confirmed believer to clinch a win.
I like my version of using the Priest Tonight, and the Maryter tomorrow. At least that way we’ll have one more night of investigations if Pleo is lying.
[QUOTE=CatinaSuit]
There is, of course, the possiblity that he got one of them wrong. In fact the chances are that one of them is wrong.
However, that does not mean that he got your reading wrong. It is just as likely that he misread one of the other candidates.
So showing how accurate or not **MHaye ** was on each night.
DiggitCamara: non-believer 70/30
FluidDruid: believer 80/20
HazelNutCoffee: believer 78/22
In other words, the most likely option is, regardless of his accuracy, is that you are what he says you are.
Remember, every time you come to toss a coin, the chance is always 50/50.
[/QUOTE]
Ummm… FluidDruid and HazelNut both died and are now confirmed in the roles of MHaye’s investigation
So: we already have two confirmed “hits”.
And of course the chance on each individual investigation is 2/3. However, I repeat: the chance of all 3 of them coming out “right” is just about 30%.
(By the way 70/30? What do you mean by that?)
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
It’s not that simple. If he’s lying, we lose a couple nights with the Apprentice that could be very valuable in the end game. IMO, we need one more confirmed believer to clinch a win.
I like my version of using the Priest Tonight, and the Maryter tomorrow. At least that way we’ll have one more night of investigations if Pleo is lying.
[/QUOTE]
Two points:
And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don’t have a 100% credibility, since they’re made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don’t have a 100% credibility, since they’re made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.
[/QUOTE]
Only your investigation is not 100% credible. After the Oracle died, the Apprentice’s investigations became 100% accurate.
–FCOD
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Two points:
And remember, this game is far from over. The investigations don’t have a 100% credibility, since they’re made by the Apprentice, not the Oracle.
[/QUOTE]
I guess I’m too excited to post my complete thoughts?
The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn’t used his powers. That’s what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.
The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don’t have power roles. The game’s not over, but I can’t think of any reason we wouldn’t do it this way. Can you?
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
So: we already have two confirmed “hits”.
And of course the chance on each individual investigation is 2/3. However, I repeat: the chance of all 3 of them coming out “right” is just about 30%.
(By the way 70/30? What do you mean by that?)
[/QUOTE]
I think you missed the point.
An example. He accurately calls you and HazelNutCoffee. He gets **FluidDruid ** wrong. In that case, there was a 60% chance, he would get a reading of believer for **FluidDruid **.
70/30 means that regardless of whether he is accurate or not, 70% of the time, he will detect you as a non believer.
I’m prepared to get struck down for saying this…but…
If the remaining Monks come forward and get verified, then that will narrow our pool sufficiently enough that I think that the town could win.
Plus **Mhaye ** wouldn’t waste in investigation on them.
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
Plus **Mhaye ** wouldn’t waste in investigation on them.
[/QUOTE]
That’s what I’ve been trying to say.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
I guess I’m too excited to post my complete thoughts?
The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn’t used his powers. That’s what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.
The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don’t have power roles. The game’s not over, but I can’t think of any reason we wouldn’t do it this way. Can you?
[/QUOTE]
Well, actually I would think that regardless of anything else, the “Martyr” should focus his “Powers” on protecting the Apprentice, since that’s our most valuable resource. But other than that, I’d have to agree with you.
Now, I’m kind of obsessed on the outcome of Day 2’s voting, since it was the only time where we know a Cultist was at risk.
Kat (repl. ArizonaTeach) (6) - Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison, Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts
Malacandra (5) - Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, Kat
We know now that Fretful Porpentine, SnakesCatLady, **Scuba_Ben **(townies) voted for **Kat **(Cultist)
… Do we really believe no Cultist tried to save her by voting against Malacandra(now CatinaSuit/Disciple)?
Idle Thoughts saved Malacandra by switching his vote at the last minute. That might have stopped Cultists from jumping on Malacandra’s bandwagon. **Kat ** is a confirmed cultist, but she was voting to save her own neck.
Both Pleonast and **sachertorte ** appear on Malacandra’s side of the equation… I grow more and more convinced he’s the Prophet. And I don’t think he’s used his recruitment option yet.
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
That’s what I’ve been trying to say.
[/QUOTE]
I’m sorry, I must have missed where you’re plan included verifying the Monks. Could you point it out to me?
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
I guess I’m too excited to post my complete thoughts?
The Disciple has one night of 100% guarantee, if the Priest hasn’t used his powers. That’s what I meant. Next night, Martyr. Next night, Disciple at 50%. Ergo, 2.5 more investigations.
The investigations do have 100% credibility, minus the 3 made before the Oracle died, and minus the Prophet. But once all the non believers are gone, we attack those that came up believer that don’t have power roles. The game’s not over, but I can’t think of any reason we wouldn’t do it this way. Can you?
[/QUOTE]
Well that is a best case scenario. The scum could very easily just target pleonast tonight, taking out the martyr and the disciple may have used the one time power. This would leave the disciple without protection abilities the next night and then the apprentice dies.
Of course who knows what the disciple and secret role (did Pleonast ever confirm the actual name of his secret role? I don’t recall, all I recall is that link that someone, I think sachertorte, posted) will actually do. I have faith that we won’t as they will not tell us.
As to thinking we have it in the bag, or at least are very close I remind you that we (well the town you were scum) thought the same thing in M2 after Pimaspinner (now hockey monkey) claimed and gave us loads of information. Of course different game so that doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
As to the idea of the monks claiming, guess what I am going to say? Allow them to do as they wish. I don’t see a need for it right now. All it would seem to do is give more confirmed targets for the scum, who are probably going to start taking out our power roles (hockey monkey/Zeriel). However if it is just zeriel and one other then yes they should come out, but so long as there are 2 hidden and in danger from the believers then they should remain hidden. Soon, if not now, claimed people will be of great danger to the cult as they won’t be able to remain hidden amongst the unclaimed. I realize of course that some of the claimed could still be proven false, but the likelihood of that is not high for anyone but Pleonast and Mhaye (it being not a full Day since his claim).
Let’s try this again.
I won’t be posting a vote for Diggit right now, because that will trigger a 12-hour countdown, and I’m not too keen on having the Dusk at 9:30am. I’m sure the rest of you don’t like it either.
I’ve recognised everything that Diggit has been saying about the likelihood of there being at least one wrong result in my first three investigations. It was one of the reasons for my caution earlier. I didn’t want to mislead people into thinking I was more certain than I was.
Now we know the results of the other two BOD investigations were right though, they say nothing about the accuracy or otherwise of the investigation of Diggit.
A related point : the chance of a no-result investigation is 30%. That means that the chance of 5 consecutive successful investigations is 7^5/10^5 = 0.168. Does that mean the chance my next investigation gets a result is 17%?
No; the chance is 70%.
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
I’m sorry, I must have missed where you’re plan included verifying the Monks. Could you point it out to me?
[/QUOTE]
I guess I didn’t say it explicitly, but here are the relevant quotes:
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
<snip>
16 players. Disciple, 2-3 Monks, Apprentice. That’s 4-5 unlynchables (from role claims). Add 1-2 confirmed townies (from investigations), that’s 5-7 people that will not be lynched. <snip>
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
<snip>
We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. **Monks **and other power roles will be spared during the day.
[/QUOTE]
How else will we know who the Monks are without killing them if they don’t tell us, ya know? 