Mafia V: The Cult of Sekham

[Santo_Rugger]

@DiggitCamara

<snip>
By the way: your “confirmed Believer” list is not only misleading but downright dangerous. <snip>

No.

We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. Monks and other power roles will be spared during the day.

[Pleonast]

@DiggitCamara

Nope. So far I’d have agreed with you. But the thing is, they hit **Fretful ** on the Night where she wasn’t self-protecting.

By the way: your “confirmed Believer” list is not only misleading but downright dangerous.

@Blaster Master

Prophet (Godfather) - Special cultist. He has the tie breaking vote among cultists. Once, while alive, he can spend one night converting a Non-Cultist but the Cult’s sacrifice will be skipped that night. A Converted player appears to the Oracle/Apprentice as they did before conversion. Investigates as “Believer”.

That’s the reason I used the term “Believer” instead of “Town”. Someone confirmed as a Believer is not necessarily on the Town’s side.

[DiggitCamara]

@Zeriel

You’re misunderstanding, apparently. IF MHaye is the Apprentice, then his math appears correct by the rules of the game as to the chances that you’re a non-believer. Actually, it’s something around actually 2/3-3/4 likely that any given read by the Apprentice will be correct, since a miss on the 50% reverts to “select a role at random from the remaining living”, and NOT “give opposite result”. Therefore, it’s much more likely that he’s gotten lucky and got correct results for his first three readings. I can do a simplified example if you don’t follow this.

And his investigation lists are pretty similar to what I’d’ve done in his shoes–focusing on the quieter folks and the folks who are just nearly evading a dunking.

And please, we don’t need any “But, but…I’m a vanilla townie, for serious.” Gussy it all you like, but there’s no disadvantage to claiming it so every scum will do so. So will every vanilla townie.

If the Apprentice is not MHaye, he’d damn well better claim.

I’m sorry if you don’t like it, but:

1. I didn’t cast doubt on MHaye’s role. Nor am I casting doubt on his list. Like on any other power role claim, my stance has been to believe the claim as long as there is no counter claim (excepting Pleonast, toDay. Since he claims a “mystery role”, he could well be telling a half truth)
2. What do you mean “it could well happen”? Like MHaye (and you) said, the chance of any one guess being right is 2/3 (approximately; I’m basing my calculation on your and MHaye’s data). The chance of three guesses in a row being correct is 2/3 ^3, or approximately 30 percent
3. Why do you object to a role claim by someone who hasn’t a power role? I know most dunkees haven’t role claimed, and I didn’t claim yesterday, but right now most power roles have been identified anyway

[Santo_Rugger]

@DiggitCamara

<snip>
3. Why do you object to a role claim by someone who hasn’t a power role? I know most dunkees haven’t role claimed, and I didn’t claim yesterday, but right now most power roles have been identified anyway

@Zeriel

<snip>
And please, we don’t need any “But, but…I’m a vanilla townie, for serious.” Gussy it all you like, but there’s no disadvantage to claiming it so every scum will do so. So will every vanilla townie.
<snip>

Bolding mine.

[DiggitCamara]

@Pygmy Rugger

No.

We go after those that came back non-believer. Then we go after those that have not been investigated. They claim if necessary. Counterclaims will result in a one to one trade. Finally, we go after those that came back believer to find the Prophet. Monks and other power roles will be spared during the day.

I was going to strenuously object… but you’re actually right.

I’m the only “investigated Non-Believer”, after all, so the town will only be losing me. I don’t have a power role, therefore I’m “expendable”. The added benefit is, of course, that I’m the only investigatee pre-Oracle-Death left over and all other investigations will have a greater accuracy.

Still: the investigation on me was wrong.

[DiggitCamara]

@Pygmy Rugger

Bolding mine.

…so? Claiming it doesn’t help but it doesn’t hurt either.

Not when you’re guaranteed to be dunked, anyway.

[Queuing]

So we did this last time so I thought I would ask:

Any desire to try to move the Day ending off of 3am EDT?

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

@Queuing

So we did this last time so I thought I would ask:

Any desire to try to move the Day ending off of 3am EDT?

Yeah I could get behind this.

–FCOD

[DiggitCamara]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

Yeah I could get behind this.

–FCOD

NO! ABSOLUTELY NO! I COULD BE SAVED IN THOSE LAST CRUCIAL SECONDS!

… Actually, if no one objects, I’d even move it to this afternoon. Unless anyone has the intention to make a pivotal post to indict anyone who has claimed, I’m off to the dunk.

By the way, since “the Martyr” has announced his role, wouldn’t these next few Nights be excellent to test his veracity?

[Hockey_Monkey]

@DiggitCamara

NO! ABSOLUTELY NO! I COULD BE SAVED IN THOSE LAST CRUCIAL SECONDS!

… Actually, if no one objects, I’d even move it to this afternoon. Unless anyone has the intention to make a pivotal post to indict anyone who has claimed, I’m off to the dunk.

By the way, since “the Martyr” has announced his role, wouldn’t these next few Nights be excellent to test his veracity?

First thoughts on reading this:

1. A call to a fellow scum to counter-claim someone to save him.

2. A message to fellow scum to take out Pleonast.

Unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote DiggitCamaraV2

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

I think a 12-hour countdown starts after 9 votes. Let’s try not to have the Day end in the middle of the night. Perhaps we could wait until this evening to cast the ninth vote, causing the Day to end tomorrow morning?

–FCOD

[Queuing]

In that case we may find this helpful (assuming I have it accurate), used form BM’s lats vote count.
** DiggitCamara ** (7) - Idle Thoughts, Queuing, FCOD, Pygmy Rugger, zeriel, Cookies, Hockey Monkey
** Pygmy Rugger ** (1) - USCDiver,
** Hockey Monkey ** (1) - CatinaSuit
** Idle Thoughts ** (1) - Pleonast
** Pleonast ** (1) - Diggit Camara

[CatInASuit]

Oh my, I leave for a couple of hours or so and the town goes off like a rocket.

to **DiggitCamara ** RASPBERRY

As I said previously, I am saying absolutely nothing about my current protective skills

Looking at the current lists and using Crazy Theory #2

Role Claimed

**CatinaSuit ** Disciple
**Pleonast ** Martyr
**MHaye ** Apprentice
**Zeriel ** Monk

My #1 suspect
Hockey Monkey Alchemist

Theory #2 townies
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison
DiggitCamara [Ver. 2] (although he looks like he is an unbeliever, despite denials)

Believers (possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom

Unknowns
USCDiver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Diggit Camara, MHaye’s Math does hold out although I make it 70/30 you are a non-believer.

However, to everyone voting Diggit Camara - this looks like a big bandwagon based on some possibilities. Much as I enjoy maths, I would not totally rely on it to convict Diggit Can we find anything in his posts that would hint at him being scum relating to the known roles as shown by MHaye. Please don’t end the day early, there is still a lot of discussion to go and some people have not logged in for this day yet.

I’m going to do a little more reading on previous posts. But I think we will have as much luck looking at the unknowns and trying to hit one of them as Cultists as going after Diggit Camara.

If Hockey Monkey is the Alchemist, I reckon we might have 4? Cultists of 6 townies in the Unknown list, because the odds on me getting all the Cultists in the Unknowns are really, really low.

I wonder who else is going to role-claim tonight??

GAME ON!!

[Pleonast]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

I think a 12-hour countdown starts after 9 votes. Let’s try not to have the Day end in the middle of the night. Perhaps we could wait until this evening to cast the ninth vote, causing the Day to end tomorrow morning?

Being on the West Coast, I can put in the ninth vote tonight easily enough. 9 or 10pm my time would mean a noonish dunk Eastern Time. If there’s eight votes by then, I’ll put in the ninth.

Unvote Idle Thoughts
I’m still highly suspicious of him, but Diggit seems to be flopping like a caught fish, so consider my vote switched.

[Queuing]

@CatinaSuit

However, to everyone voting Diggit Camara - this looks like a big bandwagon based on some possibilities. Much as I enjoy maths, I would not totally rely on it to convict Diggit Can we find anything in his posts that would hint at him being scum relating to the known roles as shown by MHaye. Please don’t end the day early, there is still a lot of discussion to go and some people have not logged in for this day yet.

meh, possibilities based on what the apprentice says are possibilities I am more then willing to follow. That said I don’t care if we end it early or not, I just want the end to fall on a more convenient time of day. We can end tomorrow night and have it end Thursday mid-morning.

If I had my dithers I would like the Day to end 3pm EDT as opposed to 3am. I figure that gives the pacific people enough time to look at in the morning while at the same time ending at a good time for most of the Easterners. Of course you overseas people are screwed but this is a NA board.

[DiggitCamara]

@CatinaSuit

(snip)

Diggit Camara, MHaye’s Math does hold out although I make it 70/30 you are a non-believer.

(snip)

Let’s exemplify.

A single coin toss has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.

However, the chance of having three heads in a row is:

1/2 ^3 = .125 (12.5 percent)

In our case, we have an overbalanced coin, with 2/3 chances of coming up heads (or a “correct” diagnosis)

2/3^3=0.296296 (29.62 percent)

In other words, the chance of getting the “correct” diagnosis three times in a row is roughly 30 percent. 2 times right, one time wrong is not an unexpected result for the three first Nights.

That said, I do agree that for everyone who’s not me the best course of action is to lynch me, since I’m the only one who came up “non-Believer”.

And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our “Martyr”'s role claim to the test.

[Queuing]

@DiggitCamara

And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our “Martyr”'s role claim to the test.

I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:

@mhaye

I’m going to report AOD investigations first, because they require slitghtly less discussion.

* Night 4 was saw me investigate Pleonast. He believes in Nairu.

[Pleonast]

@DiggitCamara

And would like to say, again, that toNight would be a good time to put our “Martyr”'s role claim to the test.

Hey, I’ve been waiting around for you Cultists each Night, but you’ve stood me up every time. You know where I live, don’t be so shy. Unless you’re still smitten with the Apprentice…

((If Diggit is going to send bald-faced messages to his Cultist buddies, I’m going to have some fun mocking them. :p))

[Santo_Rugger]

@Queuing

I would like to hear how you would like for him to do this, because did you see this:

Of course, Pleonast may be scum aligned, and show up to the Oracle as a believer. We don’t know the extent of his role, and probably won’t until his death/the end of the game.

[Queuing]

@Pygmy Rugger

Of course, Pleonast may be scum aligned, and show up to the Oracle as a believer. We don’t know the extent of his role, and probably won’t until his death/the end of the game.

True, good point. This is one problem with the role, we have no idea what the alignment of the role is. That is one reason I doubt Pleonast will live to see the end of the game. We will have to kill him one Day most likely.