Prepare for a long read. And algebra. Although I did try to keep that to a minimum.
Once again the town manages to put their noose around an innocent neck who has only one recourse to save themselves.
I’ve been contemplating the necessity of an eventual roleclaim for about he last three Days. So long as people talked about voting me but didn’t (or did so in low numbers ) I was probably free from the prying eye of the Cult wondering if I was their quarry. So thanks folks for enabling me to stay hidden this long.
For those who want it spelled out, I am The Apprentice.
My investigations to date fall into two groups – those before the Oracle died, and those after.
BOD I was guaranteed to get an answer, but not certain that it would be right. The problem is that no-one can be sure of the investigation result without some outside evidence – either an Oracle investigation (and that is denied us) or the death of the subject. AOD I’m no longer guaranteed an answer, but have 100% confidence in any answer I receive being the one Hal would have gained.
I was never told that Hal investigated me, so all discussion of accuracy and confidence assumes that I had 50% accuracy BOD and 30% chance of misfire per investigation AOD.
Before revealing the investigations, please understand that if the subject is still alive, I will report only one of three results.[ul][li]The subject believes in Nairu,[/li][li]the subject does not believe in Nairu,[/li][li]or the subject is the Avatar of Sekham.[/ul]I’ll reveal the actual results of investigations of dead players.[/li]
I’m going to report AOD investigations first, because they require slitghtly less discussion.[ul][li]Night 4 was saw me investigate Pleonast. He believes in Nairu.[/li][li]I read FlyingCowOfDoom in night 5, who believes in Nairu.[/li][li]On Night 6 I investigated Malacandra (now replaced by CatinaSuit), who I learned believes in Nairu.[/li][li]Night 7 saw me investigate Sachertorte, who also believes in Nairu.[/ul]The names should be familiar, as that particular list has had a lot of discussion. On why that particular order, Pleonast was on two lists I wanted to look at (and was the only point of overlap), I looked at Mal in night 6 because I considered it likely that there would be a move to hang him, and Sachertorte was a result of crossed wires – I was planning on looking at him later, probably in night 8.[/li]
At this point I don’t want to reveal exactly what results I got. It might be necessary in the hunt for the Prophet, so I’m looking for opinions on the issue. Should I state whether the players have power roles or not?
Yes I have been a bit lucky, as I’d have expected one foggy night in four with a 30% failure chance. It is possible to get four straight successes, but taken as a whole the chance is aroundabout ¼. Still, lets not look a gift horse in the mouth.
Interpreting the BOD investigations would be a lot harder, if more than one of them were alive. While the accuracy of these investigations was 50%, that doesn’t mean I have a 50% chance of being wrong. The chance of my getting the same result as the Oracle goes up as the number of unknown players goes down and as the number of players with the same role goes up. So to estimate the confidence of the result, you have to estimate the number of players in each role.
Currently I think the game started with the sum total of players holding “non-believer” roles to be about 10 – the Alchemist, the Psychopath, some number of regular Cultists and the balance non-believers. The regular Cultists don’t include either the Prophet or the Avatar. I estimated nine or ten “identifiable Power” roles – those who I would get the a role name. This consists of one each Oracle, Apprentice, Priest, Disciple, Crusader, and Avatar, plus 3-4 Monks. The balance (10-11) would read Believers.
It’s easier to work out the chance I’d get a wrong result from an investigation, and then subtract that from 1 to get the chance I’d be right.
The investigations were :-[ul][li]Autolycus (aka DiggitCamara[sub]2[/sub]), who appears not to believe in Nairu, on Night 1.[/li][li]Fluiddruid, who appeared to be a Believer, in Night 2.[/li][li]HazelNutCoffee, who appeared to be a Believer, in Night 3.[/ul]The latter two were correct, as we learned when they died. DiggitCamara[sub]2[/sub] though, is still uncertain. My confidence on that investigation is about two in three, or if you want a range 60-70%.[/li]
There were then 29 players. Since I didn’t get “Avatar” he was one of the 28 non-Avatar players.
There was a 50% chance that the investigation returned a random result.
If it did, the chance I would get a wrong reading was (Surviving non-Avatar players – survivng Non-Believers)/Surviving non-Avatar players.
I estimated that there were 9 surviving Non-Believers. Thus the chance I was wrong was 0.5 * 19/28 = 0.339 (to one decimal place) and thus the chance I was right was 1-0.339 = 0.661 or 66.1%. Thus I think there’s approximately two chances in three that tis is right.
I still think the estimate of non-believers total is reasonable, although it may be one less, in which case my confidence drops to 64.2%.
Once you’ve had a chance to digest that I’m sure you have questions. I’ll do my best to field them, although I must break for tea in the next couple of hours.
That’s a load off my mind, actually. I’ve been a bit fearful of saying anything lest my words - and particularly my votes - be misinterpreted if I died before claiming.
On preview : Diggit, you do realise your last two posts are actually incompatible? If Fretful Porpentine used the reagenst to do her “protect all” ritual, the Disciple can’t get hold of them to do the “protect 2” ritual.
