There are 9 out of 16 votes cast. The Day will end in about 40 1/2 hours.
** MHaye ** (4) - Zeriel, FlyingCowOfDoom, Queuing, Pygmy Rugger
** Pygmy Rugger ** (2) - USCDiver, Hockey Monkey
** DiggitCamara ** (1) - Idle Thoughts
** Hockey Monkey ** (1) - CatinaSuit
** Idle Thoughts ** (1) - Pleonast
At this point in the game, I agree, the Apprentice needs to claim and give us whatever they have.
If the Apprentice has played perfectly, the Cult has about a 1 in 7 chance to hit the Apprentice in the remaining unclaimed pro-Town roles. But I think they can do better than that. The Cult has shown they have a good instinct for getting our power roles. I figure they have a 50-50 chance of hitting the Apprentice this Night or the next.
Crumbs can be misinterpreted, we need the actual calls and the Nights they were made (so we can judge their accuracy). The Disciple can protect.
We need you, Apprentice, you’re our only hope!
I’m going to guess that the Priest didn’t use his one-time-only special power “Protect All Citizens”. That means the Disciple can use it. If the Apprentice claims, he can use it to protect himself and the Apprentice. So we will get one more Night of investigation.
That is an excellent point. I forgot about this ability. I believe this is our best shot.
–FCOD
On Queuing’s elector scheme: I’m a little leery of anything that would propose to draw the election of dunking candidates shorter than it already is. And I think that it does suffer from the participation problems others have pointed out. Also, importantly, it breaks down and becomes bad for town under some circumstances.
Rather than attempt to generalize why, as that would involve that icky math stuff that Queuing dislikes so, I’ll just give a specific concrete example:
Suppose we reach this point: four town, two scum left. The avatar has yet to be killed. Let’s call our scum X & Y. X is the current elector, and the four townies are unanimous that Y should be killed. Since X is the elector, he’s obviously a suspicious person in his own right, and Y already has a majority for the dunk. Without the elector scheme, the worst case is that Y is the avatar, who kills a townie during the dunk. That leaves it 3 town, 1 scum going into the night, and most likely 2 town, 1 scum the next day.
With the elector scheme, though, everyone unvotes Y, and X votes for Y. One minute before the deadline, X unvotes Y and votes for some random townie, who is dunked before anyone can react. It’s now 3 town to 2 scum, going into night. Unless town gets very lucky, scum kill a townie, and win that night.
I do not favor this scheme which by design invests likely scum with the power to direct the day kill.
It intrigues me that you don’t want them to. I’ve explained it before, but I’ll explain it again.
16 players. Disciple, 2-3 Monks, Apprentice. That’s 4-5 unlynchables (from role claims). Add 1-2 confirmed townies (from investigations), that’s 5-7 people that will not be lynched. Assuming the Disciple can protect all citizens tonight, that gives us enough nights to kill all the non believers and non confirmed townies, and still have a day left over.
Unless you knew that the plan wouldn’t work, heck, we can hardly get everybody to come in here and vote, much less unvote on a specific day. So, if you knew it wouldn’t work, it’d be a great way to say, “Look, I’m so pro-town, I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the town!”
The Disciple can’t protect all players. The Priest could but she’s dead.
If Fretful didn’t use the power on Night 6, the Disciple can protect two players with certainty for one night, but then can’t protect at all the next night.
Cultists, I can handle
Zombies, Just about.
If you are going to say there are vampires involved, I’m legging it. 
Fair enough. I don’t think that destroys my plan, still gives it pretty good odds.
[QUOTE=Kyrie Eleison
Suppose we reach this point: four town, two scum left. The avatar has yet to be killed. Let’s call our scum X & Y. X is the current elector, and the four townies are unanimous that Y should be killed. Since X is the elector, he’s obviously a suspicious person in his own right, and Y already has a majority for the dunk. Without the elector scheme, the worst case is that Y is the avatar, who kills a townie during the dunk. That leaves it 3 town, 1 scum going into the night, and most likely 2 town, 1 scum the next day.
With the elector scheme, though, everyone unvotes Y, and X votes for Y. One minute before the deadline, X unvotes Y and votes for some random townie, who is dunked before anyone can react. It’s now 3 town to 2 scum, going into night. Unless town gets very lucky, scum kill a townie, and win that night.
I do not favor this scheme which by design invests likely scum with the power to direct the day kill.[/QUOTE]
See no here is something I didn’t think of.
Why does it intrigue you so Pygmy rugger?
The fact is we have no idea about who the apprentice is or what they know. We have no idea what they know. Only the apprentice does. For all we know the apprentice has investigated only 4 people in attempt to get more complete information. Or it could be someone who is on vacation and therefore won’t read this chorus of calling for the apprentice to claim. Then when they don’t it could look like they are not ignoring the town but rather just not here. This could further narrow down the choice for the town.
The apprentice sees everything that we do. The apprentice knows what they know. This is something only they know. Therefore they are acting with more information then we are. I trust the person with more information to know when to act. I see no benefit in our continued calling for the apprentice to claim. Let them decide when to do it. This calling for it can only help the scum, not the town. Unless you assume the apprentice is a moron who needs help. I for one am not making this assumption.
Lets look at who is calling for the apprentice to claim:
Hockey Monkey: a highly suspicious semi-pro town role claimer who is the number 1 suspect of the potential recruitment.
Pleonast: A claimed secret role who’s alliance is unknown.
Pygmy Rugger: someone who has almost died the past 3 Days
FCOD: the least suspicious of all of you according to perceived (mine but I doubt many of you differ) believer feel.
Why would I not find it suspicious with this group?
Dammit I thought I hit preview not submit!
This line:
This could further narrow down the choice for the town
should read:
This could further narrow down the choice for the scum
I volunteered to take out the Avatar before Queuing’s proposal. My original idea was that if the Apprentice has found the Avatar, I would be the sole voter so that no other Townie would get blowed up. How would that not work?
Hockey Monkey: I would normally agree with you, if it wasn’t for the fact that it looks like Hal Briston breadcrumbed you as town leading to the contradiction in Theory #1.
BTW. Hockey Monkey can you tell me why you don’t think that **Hal’s ** post was not a breadcrumb. You have argued loudly that you are the Alchemist, but not pointed out any flaws in Theory #1.
At this point in time, I will be honest and say I would take an **Alchemist ** for Cultist swap, but that is up to the Alchemist, whoever they may be.
I think the Apprentice should only claim if he has a majority of either believer or non-believer on the remaining players. And only on tells from the Oracle’s death onwards. I reckon the town is split 50/50 ish in terms of believers/non-believers, so claiming now, might not necessarily be the best option.
Yes, one of the **Disciple’s ** powers is to protect two people successfully for a night, with no power the next night if he can reclaim the necessary items.
I’m saying nothing.
For all we know, the Apprentice may be a moron. Just kidding. But, they may be an inexperienced player that may not realize the benefit to spilling the beans.
If the Apprentice is on vacation, we’re fucked anyway. I’d like to assume he or she will read toDay’s posts and act accordingly. I said before that the Apprentice should only claim if they have useful information (that is, Believer results). We don’t have to worry about a false claim (unless the real Apprentice is on vacation), as the real Apprentice would be a fool not to counter-claim.
If the Apprentice claims, it should give us a damn good chance at hitting a Cultist toNight. There’s also a damn good chance that the Apprentice will get protection. That gives us one more investigation and a great chance tomorrow Night to hit a Cultist. Trading the Apprentice for TWO Cultists is worth it, if you ask me.
–FCOD
There would have to be another volunteer. I don’t think the accused Avatar would refrain from voting.
–FCOD
I know **Hal’s ** post was not a breadcrumb, because if he investigated me, I would have come up as a non-believer. I know the flaw in your theory, because I know my role. Convincing you of that is another matter, because the only proof I can offer is my death, and the revelation that comes with it.
shrugs I’ve got nothin.
:smack:
–FCOD