diggit i am sorrry 
i screwd up
When they’re killing me, they can’t be killing someone truly useful. Avenge me, brethern.
Wtf?
I know, I think it has been a bad morning for some.
Zeriel, I certainly hope you will be avenged, or we are stuffed
Now would be a very good time for the remaining Monks to come forward, so we can focus our efforts on the unknowns today. Please don’t wait until you are about to be dunked. And if **MHaye ** is not the real Apprentice, now would also be a good time for the real one to step out from behind the curtain, so we can kill MHaye.
Actually I disagree about the **Monk ** coming forth at this point in time. I think we can narrow things down without it being required. I say single Monk because in all the games so far there have been three of them.
However, if anyone does want to come out and challenge the existing role claims - now would be the time.
Amended possible town population
5 Cult : Prophet, 4 Cultists (inc. 1 Avatar)
3 Non-believers : Alchemist, 2 non-believer,
1 Special Role: Martyr
5 Town: Disciple, Apprentice, 1 Monks, 2 vanilla town
OK, thoughts on last nights action.
As I see it the Cultists had three possible actions they should have taken last night.
- Neutralise the Apprentice.
- Kill the Disciple
- Kill the Monk
I can’t think of other moves which would have helped the Cultists as much.
From this I reckon the following.
- They killed Zeriel last night. This means they were expecting me to guard myself and the Apprentice last night (my obvious action if I have the materials for the ritual).
1a. This means the cult does not think that the Priest carried out the ritual to protect everyone.
1b. Fretful Porcupine was identified in some other way. Looking through FP’s post there was nothing really identifiable or more likely, nothing FP said that would lead to the Cult.
1c. My guess is that FP was target on Night six and was self protected. When Malacandra role-claimed on the next day, FP protected him and allowed the Cult a free hit.
1d. This means there has been no recruitment yet.
- The Cult did not recruit last night
2a. This means the Cult is confident that the Prophet will remain alive for a few days at least.
2b. If the Cult is that sure, then it is likely they are in a position where they would not be a dunk target.
2c. A claimed role would not a safe point due to a counter claim, however, a known believer is a much stronger possiblity, as it is unlikely the town would agree to dunk one of them.
I have a few more thoughts to come later.
Does what I am saying follow logically and make sense??
R.I.P Zeriel.
Man, slow Day or what? Where is everyone?
zuma, you okay, man? Your behavior is very erratic and while I’d like to think it’s the booze talking, it still doesn’t make any sense? Is there a good reason you don’t believe Mhaye’s claim?
Meanwhile, it looks like neither Diggit or Captain Klutz was scum after all. : /
Looking at the list of players…I’m going to do another narrowing down to see where my vote best lies with.
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
5 Hockey Monkey
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
10 CatinaSuit
12 Kyrie Eleison
14 Pleonast
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
27 MHaye
Obviously I’m not going to vote for myself.
That being said…I won’t be voting for MHaye either. For now I guess I believe him.
That earlier NoKill, though, still scares me. It was either a fail at a kill or a failed or successful recruit. Well, I suppose Hockey could have also blocked but I don’t think any info on that end is good to reveal, sorta like revealing who Priests and Disciples protect and the like. I just don’t see what good it does overall and it’s never known what could or could not help the dark side along.
The Night following the NoKill, though, Fretful was butchered. The thoughts in my head are “were scum just lucky like seemingly earlier in the game or was something known there”? It’s possible the NoKill Night before that was them maybe trying for a kill or recruit of her and failing? Then either trying again (if it was a kill) or trying a kill (if it was a failed recruit) and hitting paydirt.
It would explain the finding, at least, but I’ve learned in this game never to try to focus on one solution or person (all too well).
For my own thoughts, I’m going to write down all the cases I think it could be or mean.
NoKill Night = Failed kill. - Well a power role with protection or someone who was being protected must have tried being hit. But the next kill was of Fretful so I’m wondering if scum would have changed kill targets or tried for the one they had just tried for. This game is based on how well town can think as scum and visa versa. Just going off my own thoughts, if I were blocked on a kill, I wouldn’t just go for another person…athough game history (M3) shows the scum have done this before. Still, it’d make sense to try hitting again just to be sure.
Nokill Night = Failed recruit - Again, who would the Cultists have tried for if/when we know that Fretful was the next Night’s kill? Does it say anything? Or is a cigar just a cigar in this case? Again, if it was failed though (and in this option I’m going under the belief that it was), I think they’d know it was a power role of some kind. Either Monk, Preist, or Disciple. I think it would garner another hit the next time by way of kill if it was a failed recruit…which would be Fretful the Priest.
Nokill Night = Successful Recruit - Well, this, of course, bears the question, who would they have gone for. Looking at the list, there’s still a bit of unknowns, although any of them could already be Cult. Cult knows who is who, though, so I wonder if they’d more likely go after someone who had a role but was recruitable (like Hockey) or someone who was cleared as a believer (like FCoD or Sach). Speaking of sach, he’s been away for awhile. I think a recruit of him would be ingenius almost because nobody would probably start looking at him until he was back and posting again. Then again, maybe it’s TOO obvious.
Typing all of this out because I’m trying to figure out, if for myself only, what the NoKill Night was and what it could mean. I’m wary of it being three…and if it is, I’m more leery of Hockey again, along with stronger suspicions of those already found as “believer”. They actually have two things against them as they could be the Prophet, for one, or a recruit, who also reads as “believer”.
All I know is, if I were scum, and I was trying for a recruit, I’d try for someone who was already taken in as “confirmed” town one way or another.
So, back to the list.
2 USCDiver
5 Hockey Monkey - Alchemist?
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
12 Kyrie Eleison
17 Pygmy Rugger
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
21 Queuing
23 zuma [Ver. 2]
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Not voting for
3 Idle thoughts - Not voting for myself
10 CatinaSuit - Disciple?
14 Pleonast - Special role?
27 MHaye - Apprentice?
MHaye and Pleonast could also be recruits if three is the case, although recruit or not, I would not risk voting for MHaye and, at least to me, Pleonast is shrouded in mystery. We don’t even know if he can be recruited or not, and that’s good because Cult doesn’t know either. I don’t think they’d take the chance. Then again, this is simply my own idle thoughts. But it being the case, I don’t see myself voting for Pleo toDay.
It’s interesting Queuing’s status not coming up, but I guess that’s the breaks when you’re a role that is based on percentages.
So huh. The only two left on the list, other than the new suspicions I just gave, that I ALREADY had suspicions of are Cookies and Kyrie. They’ve festered for awhile now, although with Diggit coming up town, I’d like to hear from Kyrie what his thoughts are about me now, if anything different.
And as for Cookies she’s the highest one on my suspected list right now based on all our interactions and other weird things from the past, which I’ll happy give and list again upon request but it’s all there on past days. Mostly for thinking I’m weird for not stating reasons before which I had many times, voting for a power role a couple times AFTER the claim, and not ever saying much of anything one way or another. She seems to hide mostly in the shadows and try to stay off radars…so she has from the start of the game.
As the game goes on more and more and the player list shrinks, I, at least, can only go on what feelings and suspicions I had for awhile. At this point I feel safer and stronger voting for people early on for a few reasons. For one, the game always seems to grow speedier as it goes on and the player list is whittled down. For two, it gives people a chance to role claim if need be.
vote for ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
My vote is not set in stone by far. I’ll be reviewing again a lot of the stuff I only read two or three times when I was away in Chicago…and if new insight/revelations come up, or even a good reason why I should vote for someone else comes up, I’ll consider it.
Dammit, I completely forgot about the huge, strong prayer that the Priest has. That sorta throws some of my theories out of wack, but it still works a bit if they targeted Fretful two Nights in a row. This means, in one, two and four (all powerful prayer) it would make sense how scum found the Priest if a thwartion came in some manner the Night before. A retry maybe?
I dunno. It makes sense…but I think it’d be foolish to, at least, not remember it could have been a recruition.
Why does this game have to always be like this? It hurts my brain.
Alrighty then. Things are getting interesting.
I’ve had my suspicions of Idle for some time as well, but there will be no OMGUS vote from me…at least not yet.
I’d like to see how everyone digests a few things before plunking my vote down.
I’m a Monk. And my remaining compatriot may not be immediately available to confirm me, because he’s on vacation. When the hell is sachertorte due back, anyway? I tell ya, it has been a royal bitch trying to do those harmonic chants with just two sets of pipes. Now that Zeriel is resting upon the bossom of Nairu, the chants are going to have to wait, along with my confirmation, on sachertorte’s return.
This should help explain my seemingly stubborn attentions in the direction of Hockey Monkey, even after she role-claimed.
One just can’t help but notice when 3 of the 4 Monks are called out in a group FOS, such as what occured in 1405
I really hope the cult blew their chance at conversion on the no-kill night.
[off game] I’m in the middle of a pretty busy weekend. If I don’t post something substantial tomorrow, I will on Monday for sure. [/og]
Now that I can communicate with my fellow Monk, I would like to say that I sure as hell hope you come back in here with some kick-ass analysis with your fresh eyes, because we are sinking like a waterbuffalo’s scrotum.
Okay, now THIS is really, really interesting. Let me review everything again and prepare my soon to be long post. Ohhhh boy.
Okay, I’ve found and read and gathered and reviewed and thought about everything I need for this post.
My vote stands for cookies and this time I’m positive.
Because, see, she is not a monk. I should know because I’m a monk and zuma is the third one. From the beginning there were four of us: storyteller, Zeriel, zuma, and myself.
So this is very, very interesting indeed…because from this long post from MHaye, he states:
And this being after Hal the Oracle was dead…so his (MHaye’s) reads were either “no read” like Queuing’s last Night, or correct.
However I know Cookies is scum (either that or a Winston like player who is claiming to save her own skin no matter what, but I’m choosing to believe the former)…so her saying that sach is a Monk as well is either a gutsy move what with him being gone or only one other thing. That he’s not himself anymore and has been converted. That is the only possible and really, the ONLY explanation it can be if MHaye IS, in fact, the Apprentice and that IS the read he got.
Furthermore, from the rules at the start of this game in this post (snipped about the recruit):
So it has to be like I thought it was and was talking about in this post made earlier toDay.
So anyway, there you have it. Cookies is lying. I don’t know why or what for or what she thought she’d gain but yeah, she’s not a Monk, that’s for dang sure. She just killed herself with that claim. Because no matter if you dunk her and then sach or me first, it’s worth it to get two scum, I feel. One monk for two of them? Dunk me if you will but SHE IS LYING.
That being said, I can now ask zuma outright (much like I poked at earlier) why he thinks MHaye is lying and not the Apprentice. Me, I’m leaning toward believing him (MHaye, that is) so I hope he (zuma, that is) get’s back sometime post haste to explain…and this time a bit more in sober mode.
Ok, and now things get interesting
Role Claimed
**CatinaSuit ** Disciple
**Pleonast ** Martyr
**MHaye ** Apprentice
**Hockey Monkey ** Alchemist
detected as believers ( and so possibly including the Prophet)
sachertorte
FlyingCowOfDoom
Theory #2 townies
NAF1138
Idle Thoughts
Kyrie Eleison
Unknowns
USCDiver
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
zuma [Ver. 2]
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
Right, looking back at the way people voted, I realised that the same pattern I saw for Day 2 also existed in Day 1 as well, when AZT/Kat was also in the lead for being dunked.
Frankly, I don’t think any of the three Theory #2 townies are Cultists.
My main cult suspects though have been and the people who have really pinged my scumdar are **Queuing ** ,sachertorte and USCDiver. Although anyone else in the Unknowns list should require close attention.
Yesterday’s dunking was a bandwagon and when asking for any justification, Queuing’s response was that it was a reasonable percentage chance. No extra justification, no, “he looks and sounds scummy because of this post”, just “the Apprentice says he is a non-believer, so we dunk him”.
Idle Thoughts - one problem with your scenario, the Monks cannot be converted. Which means that if **Cookies ** is lying and **MHaye ** is telling the truth, then **sachertorte ** is a scum who registers as Believer to anyone looking.
ie. **sachertorte ** is the Prophet (see also Theory #1)
One other thing.
If there are four Monks in this game (as it looks like certain people are claiming), then that really unbalances the game towards the town in terms of power roles.
I am beginning to get the feeling that the Super Secret role that **Pleonast ** has claimed is in fact not a pro-town role.
Trying to balance this game out, would make me suspect that the Cult had it’s own “Beat Cop” working for them to help flush out roles.
And of course, if they get into trouble and roleclaim, no-one is going to be able to contradict them.
Just thinking out loud, of course.
Snipped.
Huh?
zuma and I are the last two Monks. Cookies, I assume, has to be scum. Therefore I assume that the one she’s claiming is the “other Monk” (Sach), has to be scum too…although MHaye said he investigated him and he came up believer. Since his readings no longer, as far as I know, have a chance of being wrong (but instead only the chance of getting NO read), I think Sach might be the Prophet, yes…but I actually feel more that he might be the recruit too, which would also read as a believer.
Just call it a hunch.
But any way you look at it…something is making him show up believer when he isn’t…if only because Cookies just brought him down with her with her false claim.
Well, in that light it does seem suspicious, and now I know why at least why you have been so adamant in your suspicion of me. I thought up till this point that you were scum. Now I can give some information that may be of some use to the town. On night 7 when there was no kill, I sprinkled my sleeping potion on Kyrie Eleison. It could be that my action had no effect whatsoever. It could also mean that a recruitment attempt was made and the Prophet was blocked. For right now, this is the best suspicion that I have so I will vote for Kyrie Eleison.
The pool is now narrowed to (in no particular order):
Kyrie Eleison
Idle Thoughts
USC Diver
NAF1138
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Zuma
Of these 7, I think there are 4 scum left…based on the starting number of players. There could be as few as 3 and as many as 5 left. I think that **Idle ** and **Queuing ** are 2 of those. Anyone else have some thoughts?
And now I see that there is some controversy over who the Monks are. Now I don’t know what to think. This is why I wanted the Monks to come forward yesterDay when **Zerial ** could confirm them. :rolleyes: I’m leaving my vote where it is for now and will watch carefully.
Yeah, me. I have thoughts. As my name says, get it? But not so much thoughts as KNOWINGS, actually. Did you not see my posts, Hockey? I have no idea if Cookies is scum or not but I DO KNOW she is lying through her teeth about being a Monk. So that leads me to believe with about 99.9 surity that she, and most likely Sach, ARE Cultists.