Mafia V: The Cult of Sekham

[Queuing]

Since we seem to want this:

Right now I am leaning towards voting for Zuma. I am not convinced about any of these claims, but IMO the one that makes the most sense is mhaye as the apprentice. Solely because that one hasn’t been counterclaimed. Lord knows if he has been recruited.

So why Zuma? He came in here a while ago all drunk and crazy promising us more to come. With the exception of the drunk part this has basically been his modus operandi for this game, lots of promised but with doing very little. He came after me near the end of one Day, even trying to get people to switch votes to me, and then when I said I would answer any and all accusations that he had against me he instead posted a little one liner post saying basically no I did that in M2 and look where that got us. This has also been standard for him, very small little posts with basically nothing in them. I can see this going either way, as scum trying to say something while really saying nothing or a monk trying to hide. Either way it is basically unacceptable for him to post what he has and then disappear.

I still will not put anything in blue until we hear from Zuma however. I am just not expecting much from him.

I do wonder more and more about Pleonast’s role. Perhaps he should fully disclose his role now? While I am generally against any discussion of power roles and questions about their role or when they should disclose such a role (which has apparently put me on a couple radars) this game is pretty FUBAR’d right now, what could it hurt and just maybe it will help.

[Santo_Rugger]

@NAF1138

Oh…right. Shit. Well then, do we just ignore the avatar possibility?

The better thing to do would be to ask MHaye and the Monks not to vote, unless the vote is close. The last thing we need is for the scum to be able to completely manipulate today’s vote.

If, at the end of the day, the vote’s on scum, at this point in the game a 1 to 1 trade may not be that bad, but a 1 to 1 trade with a power role may. Besides, the chances of finding the Avatar when we pop a scum are 1/n, so we’d have to do this tiptoeing every single vote until the end of the game. I don’t think it’s worth worrying about, it makes it too easy for the scum to sway the vote.

[sachertorte]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

I think it’s safer to dunk sachertorte.

–FCOD

We should be playing to win. Not playing not to lose.
Also note that scum have a near majority already. I ask everyone to think for themselves. Don’t be persuaded by anything other than what Idle Thoughts has to say or what I have to say. If you allow yourself to be persuaded by other players you could be persuaded by scum. Look at the evidence and make a determination based on that, each of you, individually. This can’t be a mob vote, the mob is nearly all scum.

Who is being most thoughtful: those voting for Idle Thoughts or those already voting for me? Who would be more likely to drive the vote early, scum who know whats what or town who are trying to make sense of the situation?

[Pleonast]

Here’s my analysis, based on my available information.

14 living players
USCDiver: no claims.
Idle Thoughts: claims Monk, says zuma is Monk.
Hockey Monkey: claims Alchemist.
NAF1138: no claims.
sachertorte: claims Monk, says Cookies is Monk, called Monk by MHaye.
CatinaSuit: claims Disciple, called Believer by MHaye.
Kyrie Eleison: no claims.
Pleonast: claims pro-Town Martyr, called Believer by MHaye.
Pygmy Rugger: no claims.
FlyingCowOfDoom: called by Believer by MHaye, claims vanilla Believer.
Queuing: no claims.
zuma: no claims, called Monk by Idle.
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies: claims Monk, says sachertorte is Monk.
MHaye: claims Apprentice.

Note: by Believer, I mean “believes in Nairu”, not a simple vanilla Believer.

Group A: Hockey, Pleonast, CatinaSuit
Barring recruitment of Hockey, I trust this group as pro-Town.

Group B: MHaye, FlyingCow
There’s been no counter-claim against MHaye, so I trust his claim, and likewise
FlyingCow. Unless he has been recruited.

Group C: Cookies, sachertorte
Potential Monk group, supported by MHaye.

Group D: Idle, zuma
Another potential Monk group, although zuma has not self-claimed (very suspicious).

Group E: USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing
No claims; our pool of unknowns.

I believe we started with 5 Cultists, now 4 remaining, plus a likely recruit, means 5 scum left. Versus probably 9 goodguys left.

The Big Question is Who was recruited? My scenarios are

Scenario I
Hockey was recruited, then MHaye is trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Hockey, Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (2-3 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario II
MHaye was recruited, then Hockey is trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, Hockey, Idle, zuma, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: MHaye, Cookies, sachertorte. Likely scum: FlyingCow. Unknowns (1-2 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario III
Someone else is recruited, then MHaye and Hockey are trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Hockey, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (3-4 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

Scenario IV
No one is recruited, then MHaye and Hockey are trustable. Confirmed pro-Town players: CatinaSuit, MHaye, FlyingCow, Hockey, Cookies, sachertorte, Pleonast. Confirmed scum: Idle. Likely scum: zuma. Unknowns (2-3 scum): USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing.

I consider the order of likelihood to IV, I, II, III. Based on that, my assessment of scumminess (from high to low) is Idle, zuma, then the unknowns USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy, Queuing, then Hockey, MHaye, Cookies, sachertorte, FlyingCow. I trust CatinaSuit and Pleonast.

So, my vote is going to the top of my list
Vote Idle Thoughts
Voting for sachertorte is foolish at the point in the game. We need to vote for the likeliest scum, period.

Having everyone but one back off the vote winner is too easily manipulated by scum. I will not participate in such a plan. Better to have everyone vote. If the dunkee turns up scum, let people try to explain why they didn’t vote for the scum.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Unvote sachertorte

Ok, I’m convinced that sachertorte may not be the best vote right now. Pleonast, I agree with your analysis. I’m going to vote Idle Thoughts, but I’d like to wait for **zuma **to explain himself first.

–FCOD

[sachertorte]

@zuma

mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice

Could someone not in danger of being dunked today take a look at zuma’s drunken posts and reconcile them with Idle Thoughts’s claims? How can zuma contradict MHaye and be a Monk? It doesn’t make sense.

Either zuma is a monk who just decided to take a shot at a roleclaiming Apprentice without having any information that would allow him to contradict MHayes statements…

OR zuma is not a monk which clearly makes Idle a liar.

So in order for Idle Thoughts and zuma to be Monks, you’re going to have to explain how zuma can contradict MHaye with only the information available to Monks.

[Idle_Thoughts]

@sachertorte

Also Idle Thoughts’s Theory requires quite a bit of faith that certain events occurred. First, it requires that MHaye is the Apprentice and was recruited.

Actually, no. It only requires he was recruited since he already came out as being the Apprentice and I, for one, believed him. So color me confused why you’re making it seem like it’s even less likely than it is.

What is the probability that scum recruited MHaye? Did they know MHaye was the Apprentice? If so, how? Were they just lucky? Perhaps.

Have you been following this game along? Are we playing in the same game? Maybe it’s because you were gone for a bit but the Cult HAVE seemed to either be exceptionally lucky or exceptionally good at playing in this game. The Crusader, the Oracle, The Priest…and even being able to stay hidden for so long. How did they find ANY of those? I’m leaning more towards luck but to what end does luck stop being a factor. If they get all the power roles out of the blue, is it still luck?

You’re being deliberatly obtuse here. I just wish more would see it then just me.
It’s very plausible that they could have had other help, especially at finding the Priest if they converted the Apprentice.

But Idle Thoughts’s Theory also requires that I be scum, and that I must have been scum from the very beginning since scum can’t have recruited both MHaye and me. But what about Hal, The Oracle, and possible breadcrumbs? This theory requires believing that Hal did not investigate me and dropped a possible breadcrumb about someone he knew nothing about. What about the prophet? This makes a touch more sense, but look at my history. I was nearly dunked on the first day. Are my actions on Day One consistent with the actions of a prophet?Idle Thought’s Theory requires too much to be believed. Scum had to have recruited the Apprentice and Hal had to have breadcrumbed someone he didn’t investigate, or the prophet has to be me. Too complex.

I don’t see how. Then again, I’m probably majorly biased since I KNOW what I am.

For Idle Thoughts to be scum, he just has to be scum. No twisting of events, or resolving who was recruited or figuring out Hal’s breadcrumbs, or figuring out who the prophet is. Idle Thoughts is scum caught in a counter-claim. Caught with the mistake that MHaye knew more than just “sachertorte is a believer,” but that investigations reveal power roles as well. It reasons out on its own simply and cleanly.

But I’m NOT scum. I KNOW this and again, I even wouldn’t mind getting dunked just so it catches THREE of you. I just hope it’s not too late by then and the numbers are even.

Also, we have zuma, who from my perspective was about to denounce MHaye as the Apprentice. How can zuma counter-claim MHaye **and **be a Monk? Idle Thoughts’s Theory is full of holes.

Then again, zuma was quite intoxicated. I can’t speak for him, though, which is why I want to hear from him as badly as everyone else.

“Clues” snipped.

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

It is going to take me some time to dig up all of the references where evidence of monk-monk interaction might be seen.

I purposefully did not direct anyone to them because I hoped they would be more compelling if some of you found them on your own. I still feel that way, but we’re running out of time and there are certainly enough of you who appear willing to swallow the rusty hook that Idle is waving so frantically below your nose.

While I’m at it, I will also be drawing your attention to how all-over-the-place Idle has been with his posts toDay. You don’t have to wait for me though, I really encourage you to look at what he’s been saying and how he’s been saying it. As sarchertorte stated above, Idle is working it so hard because it takes a lot of work to pull off such an elaborate con with only one “public” face.

Oh TO HECK WITH YOU. THIS HAS HAPPENED TO ME TWICE NOW IN THESE GAMES.

TWICE. I know you were subbed out of four and probably didn’t catch it then but THIS HAS ALL HAPPENED BEFORE.

So Crap on your “oh he must be scum because he’s trying WAY too hard for you to believe him” Crap all over it. I hate that. You are WRONG that people who are in my shoes wouldn’t be LIKE me or say the stuff I’m saying. I proved that theory wrong LAST GAME. I don’t see why people find it so hard to believe that town being set up like this wouldn’t really become all defensive and fighting against what THEY KNOW is the truth.

To ACTUAL REAL TOWN OUT THERE: WHere have you seen this before? Calm replies from others and manic replies from me? COME ON…it couldn’t be more obvious.

I AM A MONK. I SWEAR TO GOD. I SWEAR ON ANYTHING. THEY ARE LYING.

It’s even the same right down to trying the defense “Oh, real town wouldn’t act like that” STOP THAT! That theory has already been debunked. :rolleyes:

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Idle… yelling isn’t going to help you here. Bla bla bla this happened before yeah we know. It doesn’t matter that last time you kicked and screamed all the way to the noose, even though you were telling the truth. There’s nothing that says you’re not lying this time, taking advantage of your previous wrongful execution. If you want to help your case try to find convincing evidence. Nobody cares what you and you alone know.

–FCOD

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

NotETA: and weren’t you exonerated last time anyway? Didn’t we lynch someone else when someone caught zuma’s lie?

–FCOD

[Hockey_Monkey]

Post 3137 6:57 am (My time stamp EDT)

@zuma

That’s pretty convenient, MHaye.

I’m going to have something to say about these various role-claims and townie upon townie getting strung up. I’ll also apologize for not checking in for the last 30 hours of so of yesterday… I meant to definitely before the day ended and I kind of screwed up in that respect. I Got hung up at work again. Anyway I jsut got badck from SF and kind of drunk but I’ll jsut say right now MHaye I don’t believe his role claim.

MHaye I would not be surprised if you werew about ot be exposed.

Post 3138 7:08 am

@zuma

mhaye you are not the apprentice. I should not post drunk. but he is not hte apprentice

Post 3140 7:50 am

@zuma

it was lefty oduouls. so lame at least i rode bart home and my GF IS PISSED hahaawetr

ok yes the coffee

id vote mhaye if i could figfure out the colors ok gf is about to leave me must go we going with mom for her bday tomorrow and gf and i are seeing suberpad afterward. ok no more drunk posts vote mhaye

Post 3141 8:15 am

@zuma

diggit i am sorrry i screwd up

This is the one I’m having trouble with. Why is he sorry he screwed up something with Diggit? Was it Diggit the Crusader or Diggit the Believer? And what did he screw up?

[Pleonast]

Sorry, Idle, but emotional appeals carry no weight with me. Unless zuma (or anyone even) can convince me that Scenario II is most likely, my vote stands. The fact that zuma hasn’t post anything comprehensible is really hurting your position. There’s just not enough to convince me that the one scenario that exonerates you is the most likely. Sorry.

If you’re telling the truth, the Town is being done in by poor play. Kudos to the Cult, if so.

[Idle_Thoughts]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

Idle… yelling isn’t going to help you here. Bla bla bla this happened before yeah we know. It doesn’t matter that last time you kicked and screamed all the way to the noose, even though you were telling the truth. There’s nothing that says you’re not lying this time, taking advantage of your previous wrongful execution. If you want to help your case try to find convincing evidence. Nobody cares what you and you alone know.

–FCOD

But I already have tried to find evidence and posted it.

[Hockey_Monkey]

Duh, If **Zuma ** is the real apprentice, he screwed up by not counter-claiming, thus saving Diggit. :smack:

So Zuma, I think we *REALLY * need to hear from you buddy.

I’m still not sure why, if this is true, that Idle is in the fray claiming **Zuma ** to be a Monk.

[Idle_Thoughts]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

NotETA: and weren’t you exonerated last time anyway? Didn’t we lynch someone else when someone caught zuma’s lie?

–FCOD

Thankfully. So where’s the lie in this one? : /

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

@Idle Thoughts

But I already have tried to find evidence and posted it.

Then sorry, but your evidence is not convincing enough (to me anyway).

@Idle Thoughts

Thankfully. So where’s the lie in this one? : /

If you don’t already know, I hope someone else discovers it. But barring that, I have to go with what makes the most sense. Idle, if **zuma **is truly a Monk, how would he know that **MHaye **is lying? Can you explain why your claim contradicts what **zuma **said?

–FCOD

[Queuing]

Is it basically boiling down to Idle or sachertorte?

[Pleonast]

@Queuing

Is it basically boiling down to Idle or sachertorte?

Apparently. I’m open to other ideas.

For such an eventful Day (with a day or so left) we have an astoundingly large number of players who haven’t commented or voted.

Come on, people. This is dunk is important!

[Santo_Rugger]

@FlyingCowOfDoom

Then sorry, but your evidence is not convincing enough (to me anyway).
If you don’t already know, I hope someone else discovers it. But barring that, I have to go with what makes the most sense. Idle, if **zuma **is truly a Monk, how would he know that **MHaye **is lying? Can you explain why your claim contradicts what **zuma **said?

–FCOD

I don’t have time to look right now, but did zuma have his drunken schpeal before or after MHaye said sach was a Monk?

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

@Pygmy Rugger

I don’t have time to look right now, but did zuma have his drunken schpeal before or after MHaye said sach was a Monk?

Before. zuma posted at the very beginning of the Day, and then **MHaye **said **sachertorte **was a Monk later.

–FCOD

[MHaye]

Before.

zuma[sub]2[/sub]'s drunk posts were 3137, 3138, 3140 and 3141.

DarkCookiesclaimed in 3150.

IT claimed in 3154.

I stated the full investigation results in 3168, and again in 3170, complete with properly closed quotes.

Goes back to rereading Today.