[QUOTE=Queuing]
Well I know someone who thinks we should vote for a whole different group of people 
[/QUOTE]
I’d like to hear those too. Know thine enemy and all…especially when thine enemy is the ignorance of those who are being led astray, towards doubting the word of a Monk of Nairu. 
[QUOTE=zuma]
Or you or sach :rolleyes:
We’re not the ones making contradictory conclusions regarding MHaye
[/QUOTE]
We’re Monks. We’re not scum. Our knowledge of alignment is not perfect. True pro-town Monks can, and have in the case of sachertorte and I, arrive at some different conclusions along the way.
I’ve seen several people allude to it, but does anyone have any specific comments or rebuttals to my analysis in Post 3226?
Incidentally, I appreciate the various and sundry ‘Monks’ helping us all out by point to their Monkcrumbing, but most of the those posts can be just as easily read in the context of scum helping scum.
My vote stands on sachertorte.
Unofficial Vote Count
sachertorte(3) - Idle Thoughts, USCDiver, NAF1138
Idle Thoughts(3) - MHaye, Hockey Monkey, Pleonast
Kyrie Eleison(1) - Queuing
7 out of 14 votes cast. Yet to vote sachertorte, CatinaSuit, Kyrie Eleison, Pygmy Rugger, FlyingCowOfDoom, zuma[sub]2[/sub], Cookies
Anyone else like to hear something from Kyrie?
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
We’re Monks. We’re not scum. Our knowledge of alignment is not perfect. True pro-town Monks can, and have in the case of sachertorte and I, arrive at some different conclusions along the way.
[/QUOTE]
I meant your contradiction in believing MHaye had not been converted, yet believing FCOD to be scum.
[QUOTE=USCDiver]
I’ve seen several people allude to it, but does anyone have any specific comments or rebuttals to my analysis in Post 3226?
[/QUOTE]
Well if you want a comment it is one of the reasons I am leaning more towards believing Idle and Zuma. Their side has a better explanation for the no-kill (as you demonstrated) night then the other side. Since I believe the no-kill night is now of utmost importance I will be voting based upon what I think happened that night. Ideally I would like to gather more information on that night before even attempting to clear up the clusterfuck. Most likely all of the scum are not involved so there are some scum who are amongst the unknowns who I will list again for clarity:
Queuing
USC Diver
NAF
Pygmy
Kyrie
Of this list I only know a couple things: I am a believer and Kyrie was blocked by Hockey Monkey the night of the no kill. Can’t do much with that first piece of information so I might as well act on the 2nd.
[QUOTE=USCDiver]
Here’s how I currently think things have gone down over the last 3 Days.
Day 6 - fluiddruid is killed. Voted for by 2-3 players I suspect of being cultists. Also this is the day that sachertorte announces he is leaving for vacation (last post is 8/3, expects to be gone 14 days).
Night 6 - No Kill. I am more and more convinced that MHaye was succesfully recruited this night. He is unable to communicate directly with his new friends, but he can read their board at his leisure.
Day 7 - amrussell, a poor non-believer who turned up to be the Psychopath is day killed. MHaye casts a relatively safe vote (again) on sachertorte who he now knows to be a Cultist and it out of town so won’t attract much attention from other players.
Night 7 - MHaye’s first chance to share his information with the Cult. The Priest is subsequently killed. Also the plan is hatched for the Apprentice to role claim the next day if he begins to get heat. He had already gotten some attention in the past and it seemed to escalate some the previous Day.
Day 8 - MHaye gets into some trouble early on. He role claims and lists his readings. Interestingly he claims he investigated sachertorte on Night 7, even though sach is gone and has not been around, so why investigate him instead of someone who is claiming a power role? He states that sach ‘believes in Nairu’. MHaye also lists his ‘before Oracle death’ readings which are less reliable and gives away Diggit[sub]2[/sub] as ‘does not believe’, subsequently leading to his demise. MHaye is safe though because he can say ‘oh well, false reading’.
Night 8 - Having set the stage for a lynch-or-die situation, they next formulate their plan to exterminate the Monks by confusing the hell out of the town and hopefully land a True Monk in the drink the next day. The plan hinges on there being two Cultists who claim False Monk and only one True Monk left with no one to confirm his counter claim. So they go after the one known Monk, Zeriel. I think at this point the Cultists believe there to be only one Monk remaining (after Zeriel). Now, with the possibility of there being two remaining True Monks, they have a monkeywrench thrown into their machinations and we have a chance to capitalize
A few questions remain.
How can such a plan have been devised without sachertorte around to help in the planning?
Well sachertorte is a man of numbers. When sachertorte says he’s going to be gone for 2 weeks, he means 2 weeks. This means he would have returned from Vacation on the 17th. Just in time to catch up with his brethren and confirm the plan to pose as Monks. His first post back in the main thread is on the 19th.
Also, why would MHaye give a ‘Believer’ reading on sachertorte if he now knows him to be Cult?
Two possibilities: he’s relying on the trust he’s engendered and sachertorte’s absence to carry long enough that it will be too late if he is found out. Or he knows sachertorte to be the Prophet and would therefore investigate as ‘Believer’. I’m more inclined to believe the former as it would be too dangerous for the Prophet to participate in the Monk ruse.
This begs the question, why use sachertorte in the ruse at all? Could be that the cultists aren’t very many in number. Could be that MHaye did in fact investigate another of his new friends and found the Avatar among them and they have no further options.
Where does this lead us? I believe there are 5 Cultists remaining:
MHaye(recruited Apprentice)
sachertorte (claimed Monk)
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (claimed Monk)
The Avatar
The Prophet.
I believe Pygmy Rugger is either the Avatar or the Prophet.
The final Cultist remains hidden, but I believe it to be either Kyrie Eleison or NAF1138 with Queuing coming in a distant third.
Right now my vote goes to sachertorte which by my count brings him even with Idle Thoughts
[/QUOTE]
Sorry I missed this. I certainly have things to say.
As I just posted not long ago, I outed sachertorte on a gamble.
To elaborate I gambled that either situation…
a) his arriving home early (I know that I certainly try and check on this thread as soon as is humanly possible when I’ve been traveling) to confirm my claim.
b) or his continued unknown limbo long enough to stall us into a potential diversion away from the scum’s end-game push.
What appears to have happened, is the scum have gambled with two of their own. A diversion of their own: Idle’s,zuma’s and their compatriots’, away from their Prophet.
This whole FlyingCowOfDoom angle is growing more interesting to me by the moment. I sometimes have to be hit over the head with something to see it. Talk to my father about that. But if it is a discovery, it is largely accidental. That first vote FOS against FCOD and Idle was me trying to be unpredictably aggressive. I think I got very lucky there. I’m also lazy…so the first place I go when I’m in a hurry is my own posts. If I leave breadcrumbs for anyone, it is for myself.
FCOD is acting and posting so in lockstep with resistance to my alignment, and the alingment of at least one other person who I know to be 100%, unconvertable Believer…and FCOD has been (forgive the phrase) cultishly flirting with Idle for some time, right under our noses.
But, I fully admit that a much stronger case can be made for the liars themselves, Idle and zuma.
A bird in the hand?
[QUOTE=zuma]
I meant your contradiction in believing MHaye had not been converted, yet believing FCOD to be scum.
[/QUOTE]
I still don’t see how this is a contradiction.
Cookies, Sach, and MHaye can all be telling the truth and FCOD can be scum…all at the same time! If MHaye got a believer reading, it could mean FCOD is the Prophet. Cookies did not contradict herself.
I’m not saying that I think FCOD is the Prophet, but this is a viable possiblity, so Zuma and Idle, you can quit trying to muddy the waters with this particular arguement.
“To elaborate I gambled that either situation” was worth the risk:
:smack:
[QUOTE=Queuing]
Well if you want a comment it is one of the reasons I am leaning more towards believing Idle and Zuma. Their side has a better explanation for the no-kill (as you demonstrated) night then the other side. Since I believe the no-kill night is now of utmost importance I will be voting based upon what I think happened that night. Ideally I would like to gather more information on that night before even attempting to clear up the clusterfuck. Most likely all of the scum are not involved so there are some scum who are amongst the unknowns who I will list again for clarity:
Queuing
USC Diver
NAF
Pygmy
Kyrie
Of this list I only know a couple things: I am a believer and Kyrie was blocked by Hockey Monkey the night of the no kill. Can’t do much with that first piece of information so I might as well act on the 2nd.
[/QUOTE]
Remind me exactly how Kyrie being blocked on the night of the no-kill means that I or sachertorte are lying scum?
[QUOTE=USCDiver]
I’ve seen several people allude to it, but does anyone have any specific comments or rebuttals to my analysis in Post 3226?
[/QUOTE]
My main problem with the analysis, is Why would the Cult recruit MHaye? He had been getting some heat before the recruitment Night. Not exactly the clean citizen you’d think they’d go for. I’m not convinced the Cult would pick him. The only safe choice for them was Hockey; anyone else had strong likelihood of being unrecruitable or protected.
I think either no recruitment (a block or protected target) or a Alchemist recruitment are far more likely to have occurred. My Scenarios IV and I. Very similar to Queuing’s b and d. (Idle and zuma seem to be blowing smoke rather than addressing the issues. Neither have responded to my (or Queuing’s) detailed assessment of players and scenarios. Don’t be swayed by their emotional appeals or baseless attacks.)
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
My main problem with the analysis, is Why would the Cult recruit MHaye? <snip>
[/QUOTE]
I’ve only followed this game, M2, and MVI. In M2, reading and participating in the scum boards, it’s surprising how accurate a group discussion can be in pinpointing power roles. Even one person (think SK finding nesta in M2) can pick out a role, if they’re specifically looking for it. Perhaps they had a bead on him that you or I didn’t see.
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Maybe it never came to my mind because I can be a dumbass. It is right up there in my list of character traits with strange, incompetent and unhelpful.
[/quote]
Or it was a slip up.
Yeah, you probably would, wouldn’t you? Cause you know, no matter which of us goes first, that you’ll ultimately be found out. Trying to stay in the game as long as possible? I don’t see what good it is worrying about the Avatar. There’s nothing we can do in that case. But I don’t want it hindering REAL town’s placing a vote. If we’re all going to be so scared to vote for someone on a chance thing, town is never going to win this.
[QUOTE=Queuing]
Do you know what I wish? That you weren’t treating us like a bunch of idiots for not knowing whom to believe. It isn’t helping your case, in fact it is very reminiscent of the way brewha acted in M2 and we never listened to him because he began to froth at the mouth about how we couldn’t see what he saw looking like a raving lunatic honestly. He wasn’t right btw.
[/quote]
I’m sorry, but it’s just that this has happened before with ME too in M4 and I was right. Maybe THAT’S the reason I wasn’t believed at first in that game. Because some players had seen in with him/her in M2. I wasn’t going to be believed either if someone didn’t ask for clarification on a game rule and someone figured it out. From there it spread.
True Irony: It was zuma doing the accusing that time at me.
Anyway, it’s just frustrating. I’m sorry. : /
I already gave a full explaination of all I thought happened on the No-Kill Night earlier. I’ll dig the post up if you want.
As for disclosure of what roles have done so far, what else hasn’t been discussed? Two sets of Monks have claimed. Disciple has claimed. Apprentice has claimed. The latter two both already said what they did so far (when Mal was still in, he said who he protected thus far). Alchemist has claimed and said she hadn’t been using the power up until Kyrie, I assume.
The only thing we don’t know is what Pleonast has been doing. But what good would that do? If anything it might just HELP scum more than it does us!
And what can I possibly say to Pleonast? It IS that one option that I’m not scum…but the odds are against me, it seems. At least in his mind.
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
This whole FlyingCowOfDoom angle is growing more interesting to me by the moment. I sometimes have to be hit over the head with something to see it. Talk to my father about that. But if it is a discovery, it is largely accidental. That first vote FOS against FCOD and Idle was me trying to be unpredictably aggressive. I think I got very lucky there. I’m also lazy…so the first place I go when I’m in a hurry is my own posts. If I leave breadcrumbs for anyone, it is for myself.
[/quote]
Again, you mention this. But what you were being “unpredictably” aggressive about made no sense. You had wanted, apparently, explanations for why we were voting for Pleonast at the time when, and I speak ONLY for myself here, I had given them time and time again each Day when I voted for him. As far as I know, so had FCOD, but again, I don’t speak for him.
I’m not lying. You are the one that’s lying.
See, no capitals there. I’m very proud of myself. 
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
I still don’t see how this is a contradiction.
Cookies, Sach, and MHaye can all be telling the truth and FCOD can be scum…all at the same time! If MHaye got a believer reading, it could mean FCOD is the Prophet. Cookies did not contradict herself.
[/quote]
No, but when I called her on it, she didn’t even give creedence to the fact that he could be the Prophet. She just said
Seems like a quick reply to me without “remembering” that he could be the Prophet too. Something that would only come from, for a second, knowing who the real Prophet was and thus dismissing FCoD from being it.
I again point to the fact that sach said he would be OKAY with being Mod-Killed.
At first, I didn’t think anything of it myself, but now that he’s claiming Monk, it’s got to be one of the biggest things against his case!
I just don’t see a Monk being “Okay” with being Mod Killed. Especially when he saw and knew that everyone else wanted to Mod-Kill the person right before him (Nava). And then that post about “orchatrating his own death”?!! Trying to do that all that time?
My vote stands. I, unlike Pleonast feel it’s best to dunk, if anyone, sach in this case. He wanted to die anyway. He was okay with it. Nay, he was even TRYING for it. This is not the behavor of a Monk, I don’t care what people say. Seems to me he should have been dead a long time ago, but even then scum didn’t touch him while he was away all that time. Why not? What an easy kill! We have Hal leaving a huge possible breadcrumb in his favor, most people trusting him, and yet, scum never touches him all that time! There’s a pretty good arguement for ya.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
My main problem with the analysis, is Why would the Cult recruit MHaye? He had been getting some heat before the recruitment Night. Not exactly the clean citizen you’d think they’d go for. I’m not convinced the Cult would pick him. The only safe choice for them was Hockey; anyone else had strong likelihood of being unrecruitable or protected.
I think either no recruitment (a block or protected target) or a Alchemist recruitment are far more likely to have occurred. My Scenarios IV and I. Very similar to Queuing’s b and d. (Idle and zuma seem to be blowing smoke rather than addressing the issues. Neither have responded to my (or Queuing’s) detailed assessment of players and scenarios. Don’t be swayed by their emotional appeals or baseless attacks.)
[/QUOTE]
Please see some of my most recent posts.
I can’t be on all the time, even though it seems I’m on 24 hours a day. : p
But again, I don’t expect any understanding from you. I probably wouldn’t if it was reversed after you had voted for me for half the game.
In my last post, I alluded to something that didn’t make sense to me, but didn’t want to say more until zuma had posted. Here’s what doesn’t make sense to me:
How does it benefit the cult to publicly form an alliance like it seems that they must have? It now seems clear that either the pair sachertorte/Cookies is scum, or Idle/zuma is. I don’t think both pairs could be, as Zeriel did talk about having remaining compatriots, never volunteered the information that he was the last remaining monk, and it seems unlikely that there is a monk out there staying quiet.
By aligning themselves this way, they’ve given us the identity of two scum for the price of one lynch. If we were to just roll a die, and pick a pair, we can expect either to get two scum over two days, or two scum over three days. That’s an expected scum-kill rate of 0.83 scum/day.
Such a move on their part only makes sense if that rate is lower than would be expected if they didn’t make this play. If we put aside the possibility that a claimed role has been converted, that rate would only be an improvement if 7 of the 8 unknowns in our dunking pool are cult, which is not possible. I’m not quite sure how to numerically account for it, but I think that adding in the possibility that a claimed role was recruited only makes this move make less sense.
I was half expecting that zuma would deny being a monk. That’s what I didn’t want to have to say before zuma had committed himself one way or another. But if Idle were scum, his move would have made more sense that way. With luck, he could have gotten one of sachertorte/Cookies dunked, followed by himself, and then followed by the highly suspect zuma whom he had falsely named as a monk. I could see a play like that making sense at this point – two townie dunks for one scum dunk might well seal the outcome of the game now.
Can someone help me see what I’m missing? How can this stratagem possibly make sense?
To those of you who want to kill me because Hockey claims to have targeted me on the no-kill night: The Alchemist’s action is successful only 75% of the time, and then, is effective against the cult with only a 1/N chance, where N is the number of remaining cultists. If you use 5 as an (IMHO, reasonable) estimate of N, the chance that the Alchemist could successfully block the cult’s action by targeting a cultist is 15%. Further reduce that by accounting for the probability that one of the other explanations (block, recruit, etc.,) took place and by the possibility that a recruited Hockey might be lying about the whole thing and I think that becomes pretty weak evidence at this stage.
Granted, it’s something, but I’d think you might be able to find a better reason to cast a vote at this stage of the game. I won’t scream and fuss about it, and insist that I’m town and you should know it, but I think it’s become important to choose wisely now. Please do.
Not edited to add: Although the expected cult-kill rate over two or three days as a result of this ploy is higher than I would expect the cult to like, it does set it up to be 50/50 on this day. Does this mean that our estimates are wrong, and the cult knows that it’s lynch-or-lose today?
[QUOTE=Kyrie Eleison]
Not edited to add: Although the expected cult-kill rate over two or three days as a result of this ploy is higher than I would expect the cult to like, it does set it up to be 50/50 on this day. Does this mean that our estimates are wrong, and the cult knows that it’s lynch-or-lose today?
[/QUOTE]
This was my conjecture in my analysis post. A combination of factors including an Apprentice recruit (MHaye) leading to sacrifice of the Priest(Fretful Porpentine), a MHaye inspired dunking of a Citizen(Diggit[sub]2[/sub]), a sacrifice of a Monk (Zeriel) and a plan to draw out the remaining Monk(s) has led to the Cult making a bold (albeit admittedly risky) gambit to trick the Town into dunking a True Monk today and sealing the win for them Tonight.
I think the fact that both Monk Factions are claiming that there were 4 original Monks has taken me by surprise as I was working under the assumption that there had been 3 original True Monks. I can’t help but wonder if part of their plan originally relied on a single unconfirmed Monk counterclaim.
Another thing that has been bothering me a little: As I’ve alluded to previously I think the Monk Gambit was pre-planned prior to the beginning of Today. As such I think the fact that Cookies was the first to claim was also pre-planned. I don’t think our True Monks would have claimed first, it just didn’t seem to me to be a good idea at the time. Especially considering that Cookie’s claim included sachertorte who was ostensibly not around to back her up or make a post hinting that it was a bad idea.
Again, to reiterate, I think that sachertorte was involved in the planning and his ‘return’ post was purposefully delayed to give the impression he had nothing to do with the Role Claim.
Alright a few thoughts from me on the general game
Hockey Monkey: My apologies. In using you as a possible example, other people seem to have jumped upon it as the only other option. There is still the possiblity of no recruit. :dubious:
The only other read I have is that **sachertorte ** was the breadcrumb and that he was unhappy with that.
Can I find anything to back it up - no.
Does it mean there is something else going on - Nairu knows.
In terms of **Kyrie ** and **Idle ** both being Cult, well I find the idea ludicrous. For the cult to sacrifice one of its own on Day 2 with such a low vote count and at risk of the **Avatar ** backlash. Someone had better come up with a more convincing reason than they are trying to gain credit.
If I look at all the town roles against all the Cult roles, especially if there are 4 Monks, it actually begins to look unbalanced against the Cult. The only way to even it up would be for **Blaster Master ** to have made the secret role Cult aligned.
**Pleonast ** - I think now would be a really good time to tell us exactly what kind of role you have, because to be honest, if you were a Cult Apprentice, this game would make a lot more sense.
Another thing struck me, in the previous Mafia games, I have never seen the Monks as being that friendly towards each other, if only because identifying yourselves as a power block is an easy way to get yourselves bumped off by the Scum.
If I said that the almost outright backslapping between **Zeriel ** and **sachertorte ** just seemed to cry out power block which is the last thing any sane set of Monks would want to do.
Colour me really confused. 
my evidence FWIW says dunk **Idle ** slightly more than sachertorte
my gut instinct says just dunk sachertorte.
My biggest fear is that if we do take out a Cultist tonight, it is the Avatar and we lose a townie.
[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
Remind me exactly how Kyrie being blocked on the night of the no-kill means that I or sachertorte are lying scum?
[/QUOTE]
It doesn’t. Right now the most important bit of knowledge that we don’t have is, IMO, what happened that no-kill night. I think we should be doing our best to try to find out what happened that night. Say we kill Kyrie and find out that she was a believer, we can then completely discount the idea that Hockey Monkey blocked the scum that night, lending more credence to the idea of a recruitment happening that night. The recruitment of mhaye is what Idle and Zuma say what happened, and makes sense if you, sach and mhaye are in cahoots and scum. If she turns out to be scum then the chance of a block happened (Kyrie your math is somewhat wrong, the chance is probably 1/4 not 1/5 as we had already got a scum) potentially meaning no recruit happened that night and that we can still trust mhaye as apprentice. If this is the case then his reading of Monk for sachertorte is most likely accurate meaning you are a monk as well, proving to me at least who the true monks are.
This seems to have the added bonus of not doing what the scum want us to do, which is pick one of these 2 sides and go forth.
Pleonast I really don’t understand your whole secrecy thing, please explain why you feel it is so damn important for us not to know now when more perfect knowledge of all situations is what will help the vanilla citizens who only know what they are and nothing else.