Actually all three of you have been wrong frequently in this game. We have lynched far more town than scum.
Beyond that, I don’t believe either side anymore. Sach and Idle are both giving off such crazy scum vibes that I am starting to wonder if everyone involved is scum (hyperbole, I know that is most likely not the case.)
I went back and looked at the claims, and both the original claim and the counter claim thinking that the person who claimed to be a single monk and only brought in their compatriot later would be more likely to be scum. But both Cookies and Idle claimed for themselves and their partner.
The only way I see any percentage in this play is if the scum were using an original claim to draw out the remaining monks. I just can’t make it make sense otherwise. I am sticking with Sach.
I was thinking in terms of being “confirmed” pro-Town, rather than having any special knowledge. While those voting for sachertorte are in the “No Claim and Unknown” category (still ignoring Monks).
I don’t recommend voting for Idle solely because of this (read MHaye’s two analysis posts for that), but it’s another hint.
On preview, sorry, Cat, but part of the power of my role is that it is secret and the Cult can’t be certain what I can do or how to mitigate my actions. We can discuss it when we’re both dead, but until then you’ll have to trust me (or not).
But they cannot both be converts. You must admit that at least one of them is definitely pro-Town. The fact that they agree is telling.
Satisfying your curiosity about my powers does not help the Town. Nor will it help the Town use my powers. But it will help the Cult out-guess me.
If the Cult knew what I can do, I will be forced to play a WIFOM game with them. By not revealing my powers, I take away the bottle. They don’t know the game I’m playing. They might get lucky, but they can’t out-guess me if they don’t know what I’m doing. Thus, my secrecy.
Of course I want to know. However, if we assume the worst, we will lose if we kill non-scum. Therefore, it is extremely important that we kill a Cultist toDay.
The chance of the Alchemist blocking the Cult’s kill is very slim. I won’t vote for Kyrie Eleison just because **HM **says she blocked him. We have two “blocks” of Monks, and one block is lying. Because of zuma’s drunken posts and MHaye’s testimony, I feel that the odds that Idle Thoughts is a Cultist are much greater than the odds of the Alchemist blocking the Cult’s kill.
It is entirely possible that **Kyrie **is a Cultist. But we are on the verge of losing the game, and I am much less sure of Kyrie’s status than I am of Idle’s.
Yes, I will grant that one is pro-town. I have no idea which one. Their agreement tells me nothing. I also know that I am pro-town. No one seems to agree with me, and I think that is telling.
Unfortunately I have no idea what either is saying.
Well, at least this I can clear up. I was discussing why I thought sachertorte might be the apprentice at that time. That is, I thought that the quoted passage was an investigative result by sachertorte, not one shared with sachertorte by a recruited you, MHaye.
My initial reaction on catching up on the thread was that sachertorte was more likely to be telling the truth. As I said, I had previously thought him to be the apprentice. It occurred to me that some of what gave me that impression might have originated from his knowledge regarding fellow monks influencing his posting, rather than from information obtained from investigation. I intend to review his posts a bit and confirm this for myself.
In my wildest paranoid imaginings, it’s even still possible that sachertorte is the apprentice. If he were recruited before claiming, any scum could safely claim the role.
It’s still the “why” of this that troubles me. Why would the cult launch this gambit, knowing that it’s going to cost them two of their own? To do so, they must have been pretty sure it would work, or in other words, they must have though that their pair’s claims would be more credible than the real monks. That makes me second guess myself quite a bit.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. The why of this move completely puzzles me. The scum want us to choose between these 2 groups. I don’t know why. I really and truly have no idea, so I won’t do what they want me to.
CatinaSuit is the diciple right? So wouldn’t it make sense for the Diciple to use the one-shot save two thingy that night (protecting Catinasuit and MHaye)? At least that was my thinking. If I’m mistaken and the evidence clearly shows the one-shot thingy was already used, then I missed that.
I’m not sure about this either way, but going to the unknown group isn’t as risky as i think you think it is. We’re going to have to go to that group eventually, either now, or Tomorrow, or the next Day. Right now, the main reason I see for not shift tactics to going to the unknown group is we only have half a day left Today. If we had more time to discuss it, we could do the unknowns today hoping for an MHaye investigation. Basically play chicken with the scum: scum say MHaye is recruited, if he is recruited then the scum are in a pickle. Do they kill MHaye tonight thus showing the town his true alignment? Or do they let MHaye live and allow him to give more information to the town?
Basically, what I’m trying to say is MHaye’s continuing life will determine his alignment to the town. If he continues to live, then he’s scum… BUT! If he continues to live and is able to point out scum to us, then he has the opportunity to prove his town status.
I’ve been giving the alignment of the secret role a bit of thought as well. I was worried that the secret role was cult aligned thus giving a easy role claim to the scum. My conclusion is such a situation (cult secret role) is game breaking as it gives way too much power to the cult. Even without whatever power is associated with the role, just the fact that everyone knows there is a secret role and cult has the secret role and cult can talk at night, makes a cult secret role game breakingly powerful. Nothing prevents scum from pretending to be a town aligned secret role. No one will counterclaim such a situation. This is very powerful indeed.
We have to take out the avatar eventually. There’s no avoiding it.
But you know Zeriel is a Monk. We didn’t want to be obvious, it just sort of happened.
But isn’t it just as plausible that scum decided to recruit after I went on vacation so that they could make the argument that I’m the prophet? We already had Hal’s breadcrumb at that point.
I agree. Thank you for taking the time to do all that.
Also I’d like to stress that a split town vote will result in a dead townie. We really have a slim margin of error. Quite frankly we’ve had a slim margin of error for a few days now. All it will take is a few townies voting town and scum will win.
But I don’t see how killing Kyrie furthers that cause either.
The no-kill night could be
Priest block (still alive right?)
Diciple block
Alchemist
Recruitment
If Kyrie turns up scum, it doesn’t preclude a recruitment. There is only about a
0.75*(1/4) = 0.1875
0.75*(1/5) = 0.15
0.75*(1/6) = 0.125
chance that the Alchemist block would even happen. That’s kinda small isn’t it?
I’m not against killing one of the unknown 5, but the case against Kyrie is very thin.
Simple. They can win. One (maybe two) wrong moves by us and they win. Even if we pick right, after the bloodbath that follows, we will still be in a situation where if we pick wrong, scum win. Correct dunkings will not remove us from a lynch-or-lose situation. The only thing that will help with that are nighttime blocks.
Also scum could be doing it just for fun. It is a game after all.
This post is for posterity in case I don’t survive the role-confirmation process.
A big question I have is why Idle Thoughts chose zuma as his partner in crime, so I went through Hal’s spreadsheet to see who storyteller and Zeriel had voted for. The theory is, Idle Thoughts was limited in which scum he could select in his false claim.
storyteller: MadTheSwine, MtgMan, Hockey Monkey
Zeriel: NAF, Kyrie Mtgman, fluiddruid, Hal, Hockey Monkey, Klutz, Diggitv2, Pygmy Rugger, amrussel, MHaye
Of these the following are still alive:
Hockey Monkey, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy Rugger, MHaye
Hockey Monkey and MHaye have un-contested roleclaims. They were at least town at the beginning of the game. This discussion will not address recruitment
That leaves: NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy Rugger
On the flipside our unknown 5 include USCDiver, NAF, Kyrie, Pygmy Rugger, and Queuing.
According to Hal’s spreadsheet, Queuing voted for Zeriel on Day 5. So that leaves USCDiver.
With the lack of additional evidence, I believe my role-confirmation gives pro-townie points to USCDiver as he would have made a better partner in Idle Thought’s Monk roleclaim, and the voting record of storyteller and Zeriel would not have contradicted it. This doesn’t exonerate him, but it makes him less suspicious in my view.
I was hoping this analysis would prove to be more helpful, but alas it has not. Plausible reasons why Idle Thoughts didn’t select USCDiver include USCDiver’s newness to the game. However, zuma’s drunken post should have given Idle Thoughts enough pause to consider a clean and relatively vibeless USCDiver.
Anyway, that leaves me with NAF, Kyrie, Queuing and Pygmy Rugger as the unknowns who Idle Thoughts could not pick to play with him since either they voted Zeriel or Zeriel voted for them.
**Pygmy Rugger **poses a problem as the role was sparsely played for so very long. From a game mechanics point of view allowing a scum to lay so very low would be game breaking in my view, so I’m more likely to give Pygmy Rugger a pass.
I like Kyrie. **Kyrie **understands my ramblings when others do not. I will be very upset if Kyrie is scum. This is not a good reason not to suspect Kyrie though.
I’ve confronted **Queuing **before. No one else seemed to care then. I’m not sure I care now. One new thing that sticks out in my mind is the notion where we dunked less productive players over more productive players early in the game. I know I ended up supporting this and I think I already regret it, but who was it who brought up that idea? I need to check, but my memory right now is pointing to Queuing. I wouldn’t mind dunking Queuing. The counterbalance is I think I support Queuing’s idea of dunking one of the unknown 5. They are unknowns and we have to sort them out eventually anyway. Why not now? Why not give MHaye more time to possibly prove his role more soundly without having to possibly kill a monk to do so?
But my biggest candidate for scum is NAF. Zeriel and NAF went after each other quite a bit. I also noted some statements early on in the game that indicated to me that NAF had too much information on the alignment of ArizonaTeach. No one else seemed to care, but I’m going to bring that up again now.
The points against NAF
His list of lurkers/invisible players on Day One (it was day one right? I don’t fully recall) that was missing ArizonaTeach despite ArizonaTeach not posting a whole lot.
His statement after ArizonaTeach melted down saying to the effect, see and you thought I was crazy when I posted that list. Which was weird becuase ArizonaTeach wasn’t on his list and the statement indicated to me that NAF knew somehow that ArizonaTeach’s alignment would vindicate NAF’s pointing out lurkers/invisibles.
NAF is not participating in the current discussion. He has made his choice and is sticking to it despite the proponents of the reasoning he is using for his vote waffling and being careful to consider the data for the case against me and the case against Idle Thoughts. NAF is playing an aw-shucks I’m too confused persona. I don’t believe NAF is this naive or incapable of looking at the facts with a critical eye. I think NAF is scum.
When my role is confirmed, either by my death or Idle Thoughts’s.
DUNK NAF. (but consider a me a virtual vote for Idle Thoughts, as I’m not getting dunked over him if I can prevent it).
This is what I had to say of the NoKill Night. Mind you this was before all the false claiming and claiming started.
So you see, I already talked about all this myself too. Even before all this crazyness started. : /
Which is why I feel you’ve been converted.
Wow, circumstantial much? You’re good at making this stuff up as you go along.
Adding the last paragraph in there, out of order, since it goes in with what I’m about to say.
You’re deliberately painting this another way. At first I DID only think it was Cookies and possibly sach, based on whatever he said when he came back, that were scum. But after YOU came out and so conveinently said Sach is a “Monk” did I realize that YOU had to be scum too. At first I thought it was:
Cookies = Scum for sure.
Sach = Scum or not Scum depending on what she’d answer by way of agreeing or disagree with Cookies. If Scum, then possible recruit.
You = Apprentice.
After you came out saying Sach IS a Monk, I knew you were lying as well, though, and that OBVIOUSLY changed my my viewpoint. :rolleyes:
It’s apparent now that:
Cookies = Scum Sach = Scum and possibly Prophet
You = Apprentice who was recruited.
And the word there, of course, is IF.
Again, painting it a different way. The only thing I KNEW at the time is that SACH AND COOKIES WERE/ARE NOT MONKS. I didn’t know that YOU were going to come out with a sneaky ploy to try to tell the rest of town that he IS a “Monk”. He’s NOT. Therefore he CAN/COULD be converted. But all of that is moot now since I THINK YOU’RE THE CONVERT. Why are you trying to twist all of this in your favor. You’re making it seem like I’m contradicting myself yet you’re leaving out the part where you hadn’t said what you said yet, at the time. Therefore all I knew was: Sach = NOT A MONK so Sach = Probably a recruit since You = saying she was a believer.
AFTER YOU = Saying she was a MONK, I then knew Sach = scum and You = Recruit.
I know I shouldn’t have to be explaining this all to you since you and your buddies are the ones that set it all up this way, but I do hold out that the actual, real townies out there will read this and make do with it what they will.
How do I know? Maybe it really WAS Sach. You fail to mention, like Cookies did, that if he were the Prophet, he’d read “believer” all the way through the game!
But there’s a key difference here. In that one you were town. In this one you are not.
Go on then. Try me. You’ll only be signing your own death warrant…and YOU know it.
Either way, we don’t know that…and either way, you still could have already known by investigation.
Ohhh, let’s see here. Voting for me we have MHaye who I KNOW has to be the recruit. Hockey Monkey, whom MHaye is convinced is the recruit and seems to be setting her up for future lynch. And you, who nobody really knows anything about and who you’d obviously keep saying “oh, I’m for the side of good! Yes I am!”
You’re going to be in a world of hurt when I come up what I KNOW I will come up.
OH FOR…Catina DO NOT answer that!
I can’t believe you’d actually have the NERVE to ask that so blatantly. Obviously you’re hoping for an answer from her so you know if you ever have to worry about either hitting Catina or someone else at Night and the possibility that they’ll BOTH be protected!
I think it’s better if you guys always have to guess and wonder if she could have protected two people on the same Night.
This is a lie. I have explained why it is a lie many times. Just because Z and Sach are saying it is true does not make it not a lie. AZ wasn’t on that list because AZ was being vocal and making his presence known.
No defense for this because it was an off the cuff remark that I don’t remember making.
Here is where the fuck you comes in. I am participating as bloody well much as I can. I do have a job. I can post from work, recently things have gotten a bit more hectic at work. I have explained all of this. The ONLY reason I haven’t subbed out at this point is because I think it would break the game.
And I am sorry if this is all clear as crystal to you, but you know your alignment and I don’t, so fuck off sach. I don’t need this holier than thou shit. As far as I am concerned everything that you, MHaye, Idle, Cookies, and Zuma are saying is just so much noise.
MHayes long analysis makes just as much sense from the perspective of Idle being a monk and MHaye being scum as it does the other way around. I think that there are good reasons on both sides for both sets of Monks to be liars. I haven’t seen any good reasons for why either set is telling the truth.
I said it before, the only way this makes any sense to me is if Sach and Cookies are trying to flush out the remaining monks. Well job well done.
If you can offer a different explination for why the scum suddenly went batshit crazy when they were about to win the game (because so far the only alternative explination I have heard is that we are in lynch or lose territoy) I would love to hear it.
But everything that isn’t an explination of what is happening right now, toDay, is meaningless because as far as I am concerned you are all lieing to me. So I am following my logic.
Sorry my intelect has fallen short of yours Sach. But at least I am not an asshole.
When my role is confirmed, either by my death or Idle Thoughts’s.
DUNK NAF. (but consider a me a virtual vote for Idle Thoughts, as I’m not getting dunked over him if I can prevent it).
[/QUOTE]
You keep saying this, but no one is buying it because it doesn’t make more sense for scum to try and get killed. It makes plenty more sense for a Monk to try and be the victim of the scum. As a Monk, while I would like to survive to the endgame to help town, I felt that getting myself nightkilled (well ideally recruited) would be pro-town since a nightkilled Monk means a not-night-killed Priest, Oracle, blah blah blah. Pretty simple stuff. That plus my pending vacation made me more willing to try and play apprentice. Quite frankly I think all pro-town roles should try and project powerrole a teeny bit to give cover to to the real powerroles.
If you were really a Monk, you would not merely ‘feel’ you would know. But here you ‘feel’ because its not true and you know it. Slip of the tongue from scum right there.
Which would have read “believer” either way! :dubious:
And take a look at THIS everyone:
Yet then she just votes for NAF in the next post!
Talk about inconsistancy!
But I didn’t, see? Because USC is NOT THE OTHER MONK! Don’t you think if I were REALLY FAKING THIS I WOULD have chosen a better person? Didn’t YOU say yourself that “I’m not stupid”? Then why would I do this and pick zuma after all that he did with his intoxicated posts? Does that make ANY sense at all? You’re just reaching now.
Then why not just vote for me NOW? Again, this delaying the game. For Christ’s sakes, DAY IS ENDING TODAY. What was all this talk about ganging up on one person? If so, then DO it. If it’s me, then DO it. Your delaying just makes you look more like what I know you are…scummy. Because you know you’ll be found out upon my death!
And since you have managed to piss me off while I am on my break.
It doesn’t make any more sense that a monk would try to get night killed than it does that scum would try to get night killed. In fact it actually makes a little less. You logic in this paragraph is twisted to fuck.
How does the above statement even make any sense? How would a monk “know” any more than any other townie would know?
That was a good post, Idle. Seriously, thanks for the good analysis.
Your explanation is plausible, but it’s ultimately unconvincing to someone who doesn’t have knowledge of your role. All we really have is you saying that you know MHaye was recruited because he identifies a Monk you say you know is not. It all depends on us trusting you.
A non-trusting observer can’t place much weight on your currently unverifiable testimony. Instead, looking at the No-Kill Night, we have to look at what could have happened and how likely the scenarios are. And I find it unlikely that the Cult would have chosen MHaye to recruit. I think it’s most likely that the Cult was blocked. If they did choose to recruit, their only sensible choice was Hockey. Any other choice would’ve been a huge gamble. Even recruiting Hockey is risky, because she’s the obvious choice.
So I think the most likely event was that the Cult was blocked that Night. The reason the Cult is doing this Monk counter-claim is twofold. First, it let’s them ferret out the remaining Monks. And second, it lets them know who they can recruit without risk.
Here’s their plan: no matter who is dunked to Day, the Cult will recruit to Night. They now know who all the roles are. They know who can’t resist their recruitment. And they will have several players to choose from. The Disciple will have to be very lucky to protect the correct target, if even he chooses to not protect the Apprentice.
Unfortunately, Idle, that analysis didn’t require any special knowledge. It’s based solely on the facts available to everyone. It holds even if I am scum. So if the mistrusting observer has to choose between fact-based theory and one that depends on a single player’s unverifiable claim, the choice seems clear.
On preview, this is in response to 3392. I haven’t read anything after that.
You’ll only be signing your own death warrant…and YOU know it.