Ok, I’m officially baffled. Can we get a quick huddle, since we all seem to be online, real quick Pleonast and storyteller0910? We’re at opposite ends of the spectrum as to what should be done on Day 1 and I think we should either figure each other out or agree to disagree.
Here’s my stance. This is a game of information. There is a disparity between the information posessed by both groups. But information gained by dubious means is not reliable and can, in fact, be dangerous. Establishing a type of epistemology(a formal system by which we can gain information with a good confidence level, the scientific method is an epistemology), whether it is transparent to the Cultists or not, gives us confidence in any information we do gain. The Oracle has an epistemology(called revelation) by which he/she can accurately learn information, but the rest of us don’t. Using subjective things like “scum tells” or “flying under the radar” are all well and good, for individuals, but this is a cooperative game. The Cultists are a team, and the town should be too. By using transparent reasoning processes we can also spot those who are trying to buck the system. Those trying to buck the system are probably Cultists because they have reason to go against the pro-town strategy/epistemology we define, they have a different goal, and they have information already which may throw their calculus off when assimilated into a matrix of what the town knows.
Let’s take the specific example of discussing the math behind Night kills. If we discuss it and the various possibilities for each post-Night state, then we narrow the avenues of investigation on the following Day. Moreover, we narrow it in a way not easily controlled by the Cultists. The rules governing Night kills are set by the moderator, and the Cultists, et. al. have to play by those rules. This is an area they can’t really manipulate because the only thing they could do is forego their night kill, or a conversion, but that gives away information too. If we know the possibilities and combinations then we gain reliable information. Information is, nearly, everything in this game.
The discussion of the Apprentice and Oracle is valuable to the town because it helps establish concrete methods by which we can evaluate any breadcrumbs which may be dropped, especially by the Apprentice, and determine how reliable they are. Does anyone want a repeat of MII’s Beat-Cop slaughterfest? If we could find a way, perhaps using some sort of cryptology, to convert the Apprentice into a fully-powered Oracle, that would really tilt the scales in our favor. I’m dubious about this as of now because I don’t see a way to pass this information securely. I don’t see how the Apprentice could encode a message with info known only to them and the Oracle. As far as I know the only data point they both share is the Oracle’s name. Since there are only thirty players it would be vulnerable to a brute force attack where the Cultists try every user’s name as the decryption key and the one which works, bingo, there’s the Oracle. Maybe I’m missing something, but I think that is pretty risky. I think the best strategy is for the Oracle and Apprentice to stay alive as long as possible and do a big reveal after a few Day/Night cycles(after which they live only as long as the Priest can protect them). Dropping breadcrumbs, while nice, is risky too.
In case this isn’t enough to jumpstart discussion between the three of us, what about the case I mentioned earlier? Should the town refrain from discussion of possible Cultist strategies in case we hit on one they haven’t thought about and which would be more effective than the ones they planned to use? If not, why is that case different than discussing the possible strategies of the town’s power roles?
In any event, I think you, both Pleonast and storyteller0910 are placing way too much emphasis on Day 1’s dunk. Data talks, bullshit walks. Discussions are tiny bits of data buried among tons of bullshit. Voting patterns and kill patterns, those are data. I’d rather let Day 1 be a bad dunk and get some real data than dig through piles of bullshit to ferret out “scum tells” or various vibes like “not being helpful” or “under the radar”. Please note, NAF, and other real-life Werewolf players, this is not how I operate in face to face games. There I’m all for heating it up on Day 1 because there are SOO many tells a person can give off when you’re face to face which make it easier to spot scum. But online? Data, data, data.
Enjoy,
Steven
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