Mafia V: The Cult of Sekham

[Hockey_Monkey]

@Scuba_Ben

<snip>

Let’s take stock of our assets. We have two information roles, one of which is not yet useful, and the “yet” has been discussed ad nauseum, infinitum, e pluribus. We have two protective roles, one of which is at half strength. And we have one attack role, which will average one kill every other Night. We also have one power-blocking role, and one secret attack role.

That’s a LOT of active roles. But it’s limited by the Oracle and Apprentice unable to definitively ID scum. Which leads me to think about two other roles:

<snip>…

Bolded and Sized: Your words, not mine.

[fluiddruid]

@MonkeyMensch

I vote sachertorte , for the nonce. It’s because of the Big Scheme (which shall go nameless here) proposed earlier. If there’s one thing I learned in M2 it’s that the Beat Cops’ (Apprentice) single night’s Investigations (Ritual) were not worth much. We can hope that the Oracle finds the Apprentice but it’s not worth getting panties bunched.

I tend to agree. Frankly I have been reading but not posting much as I didn’t really want to participate in the ‘discussion that will not be named’, and feel that this whole discussion is so much smoke and mirrors - ultimately unproductive and possibly dangerous. While I think it’s not necessarily a smoking gun to discuss role detection, on Day One, I feel sachertorte is the best we’ve got. Not that I’m entirely convinced NAF’s on the up-and-up, but, I don’t see a huge division on his posting style now than as a townie in MIII.

For now: vote sachertorte.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

@Hockey Monkey

Bolded and Sized: Your words, not mine.

Perhaps he was referring to the Psychopath?

–FCOD

[Blaster_Master]

1 ArizonaTeach
2 USCDiver
3 Idle Thoughts
4 Zuma
5 Hockey Monkey
6 storyteller0910
7 NAF1138
8 sachertorte
9 SnakesCatLady
10 Malacandra
11 Mtgman
12 Kyrie Eleison (repl. Clockwork Jackal)
13 Hal Briston
14 Pleonast
15 DiggitCamara
16 Fretful Porpentine
17 Nava (repl. Captain Carrot)
18 Pasta
19 FlyingCowOfDoom
20 Scuba_Ben
21 Queuing
22 Zeriel
23 MonkeyMensch
24 ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
25 Autolycus
26 HazelNutCoffee
27 MHaye
28 fluiddruid
29 MadTheSwine
30 Captain Klutz

[Captain_Klutz]

@Mgtman

I think the best strategy is for the Oracle and Apprentice to stay alive as long as possible and do a big reveal after a few Day/Night cycles(after which they live only as long as the Priest can protect them). Dropping breadcrumbs, while nice, is risky too.

I almost agree with this. I believe the Apprentice should not role claim as his/her investigations are more confusing than helpful. The Apprentice only gets reliable info after the Oracle dies, so should wait for several further Day/Night cycles before claiming.

However, this is going to take a heck of a lot of Day/Night cycles, especially since the Apprentice does not always get a reading (after the Oracle dies, the Apprentice gets either an accurate reading or no reading).

Because of this, the Apprentice is basically a useless role. The only useful thing they can do is identify the Avatar, as this will always be read accurately. I will say to the Apprentice, if you find the Avatar then please claim immediately.

[Scuba_Ben]

Hockey Monkey, I apologize, you have correctly quoted me. That slipped by me during preview; I had never thought the secret role was an attack role. What I had written up at one point was the Psychopath – which in point of fact is better described as an unactivated attack role – but I thought I had deleted it.

On preview: Flying Cow of Doom is pretty close.

Also on preview: I partially disagree with Captain Klutz, I think the Apprentice should not announce the Avatar immediately, until the Apprentice gets at least 70% accuracy on readings. But this depends on whether the Apprentice can misread someone else as the Avatar.

[Kyrie_Eleison]

@Captain Klutz

Because of this, the Apprentice is basically a useless role. The only useful thing they can do is identify the Avatar, as this will always be read accurately. I will say to the Apprentice, if you find the Avatar then please claim immediately.

And then what? Do we lynch the Apprentice that day and the Avatar the next? Don’t forget, the Apprentice knows who the Oracle is, and is subject to recruitment.

[sachertorte]

In post 670 **Queuing **responds to my query as to why the ‘have the apprentice reveal the oracle’ scheme got conflated with my ideas on coordination:

@Queuing

1. Try harder to let it go
2. Complaining about other’s not taking the same ‘heat’ as you is not helpful, particularly when the reason is they actually shut-up about their idea when it was shown to be flawed.
3. Try harder to let it go

Which I find hilarious*, because **Queuing **is one of the very people that I think should get some heat too. It was **Queuing **himself lending support to the very, very bad plan in post 551

@Queuing

A few things:
I don’t hate the idea of everyone picking a name and yelling it out, allowing the Oracle to find the apprentice. From a risk/reward perspective I see a much greater reward then the previous oracle/apprentice discussion.

This is all very self-serving. I read Queuing’s desire to shut me up about pursuing those who discussed the second plan as an attempt to avoid scrutiny of Queuing himself.

He continues in post 670 to blame **DiggitCamara **for the flawed plan.

@Queuing

Dunk DiggitCamara.

I do this for 2 reasons;

• his vote for cookie and then unvote very quickly all done due to “tradition” that isn’t even a tradition (2 out of 4 does not a tradition make)

-it was he who posted the 2nd Oracle/Apprentice plan. While he has not kept on about this plan, like a couple other people, I seem to recall that this idea was thrown out there once the discussion of the other plan had seemed to die off. This cause further plan discussion, including the divide and conquer plan rearing its head again. I admit I was caught up in this discussion again, as were other people. IMO I believe it is time to STFU about great plans to solve this game once and for all. It ain’t going to happen. We have had 2 plans proposed both shown to be severely flawd, and a mammoth post or 2 from someone who also loves the idea of a cohesive plan.

(color removed)
**Queuing **does admit to getting “caught up in this discussion again,” but the tone strikes me as ‘Poor me, I got caught up with those riff-raff.’ What **Queuing **doesn’t tell you is that he **supported **the plan for which he’s holding **DiggitCamara **accountable. Looks scummy to me.

*and by hilarious I mean suspicious
Vote Queuing

[MHaye]

@Scuba_Ben

Also on preview: I partially disagree with Captain Klutz, I think the Apprentice should not announce the Avatar immediately, until the Apprentice gets at least 70% accuracy on readings. But this depends on whether the Apprentice can misread someone else as the Avatar.

According to this post here, not even the Apprentice can mix the Avatar up with any other role.

[NAF1138]

@HazelNutCoffee

I’ve been contemplating my vote, mostly because MtS has not been back to post anything in response to the accusations, which is what I am waiting for in order to decide whether to keep my vote where it is or move it according to my other suspcions. 3 in the morning after a night out with friends is probably not the best time to be thinking about anything, but re-reading NAF’s last post directed towards me, it seems rather belligerent, which is slightly coloring my interpretation of it. I feel like I was raising a legitimate concern, which was answered with a “sucks to be a newbie, don’t tell me what to do” type of answer. On the other hand, I am inclined to think that aggressive responses are something that scum would avoid, at least at this point in the game. Which is why I am also still suspicious of zuma’s nonchalant reaction to Mal’s vote.

Eh. I’ll sleep on it and hopefully my head will be clearer in the morning.

I want to apologize if I came of beligerant in my responce to you yesterday. It was not my intenting. When I said it sucks that you don’t have the history, I meant it. It is harder for you.

I was admitadly getting frustrated by people saying that we should not bring past games into the experiance (you weren’t the only one) and while I can understand that from a practicle viewpoint for the new players, it is almost impossible for me to actually ignore things I have learned about players in the past. So you were picking up on that frustration I guess.

Also yesterday was a strange day for me in general IRL.

[Scuba_Ben]

@MHaye

According to this post here, not even the Apprentice can mix the Avatar up with any other role.

I double-checked that; I’m asking about the reverse case: Could the Apprentice mis-read somebody else as the Avatar?

[storyteller0910]

@Scuba_Ben

Very little: The thoughts that (1) the Oracle can’t tell between Nonbeliever and Cultist;

Whoa. I think I missed this fact. This is of enormous and fundamental importance. Depending upon the number of non-Cult non-believers included in the game, this completely eliminates (or, at least makes phenomenally unlikely) the possibility of a purely Investigator-driven victory. In any previous game, the Oracle/Detective/whatever was able to definitively identify scum, such that we could lynch based on his or her findings without needing to discuss it at all. But in this game, even if the Oracle determines for certain that a particular player is a nonbeliever, we cannot lynch that player without attempting to suss out whether he/she is a Cultist or a generic nonbeliever.

Frankly, this handicaps the investigative power roles so much that it makes me terribly suspicious of those - particularly Mtgman and sachertorte - who have proposed strategies emphasizing the utilization of those roles. Consider Mtgman’s strategy, which before I thought was misguided, but based on this bit of information becomes disastrous. Under his plan, even if the Oracle survives long enough to do six investigations (let’s say) - and say the Oracle is able to identify three nonbelievers. If we lynch based on this information alone (and under his plan, this information is all we’d have, there’s a nonzero chance of lynching *no Cultists at all. *

Mtgman, it seems to me that your proposition, which was presented as terribly reasonable and with just enough words to keep people a little confused, would have us rely on two roles that cannot even reliably detect scum as our one and only method of detecting scum. I know there’s a general sentiment of “why would scum be so verbose,” but it seems to me that if you were scum, presenting this wildly flawed plan is a no-risk maneuver: if the town goes along with it, the Cultists are sitting pretty, and if they don’t, everyone will assume that your presentation of the plan was too obvious to be scummy.

I need to re-read both your and sachertorte’s posts a bit more carefully with this new information in mind; I think there’s a fair chance I’ll end up voting for one of you in the end.

[MHaye]

@Scuba_Ben

I double-checked that; I’m asking about the reverse case: Could the Apprentice mis-read somebody else as the Avatar?

I don’t think the Apprentice can make any mistake about the Avatar. From the role descriptions :

Further, because of the great evil flowing in your veins, the Oracle and Apprentice will make no mistake identifying you and cannot mistake anyone else as you.

(Bolding mine).

That would seem to suggest the answer to your question is “no.” Unless BM wants to chime in?

[storyteller0910]

@Kyrie Eleison

And then what? Do we lynch the Apprentice that day and the Avatar the next? Don’t forget, the Apprentice knows who the Oracle is, and is subject to recruitment.

Geez, there are all kinds of implications to this ruleset that hadn’t occurred to me. If the Apprentice gets recruited, he can reveal the identity of the Oracle to the scum just by telling them. Augh.

[Queuing]

@sachertorte

670 to blame **DiggitCamara **for the flawed plan.

Snipped.

I blame diggitcamara as it was his plan. So your wording here is at best misleading. I also admitted to my initial liking of the plan. Until it was shown that it was indeed a very bad plan. It was in fact you who showed it be such.

Again you miss the difference between your actions, Diggit Camara and mine.

You proposed a plan. It was repeatedly torn apart. You repeatedly proposed it. Even admitting you have a desire to be right, barely acknowledging any of the points against the plan. Your plan had risk, you admit this risk. Your plan had pretty much nothing to gain. This has been shown to you, yet you keep talking about it. Since you won’t shut up about it people are becoming suspicious of you. So instead of you know, shutting up about it, you instead go “but I wasn’t the only one who thought of a plan that sucked! Why aren’t you guys going after them too?”. Not acknowledging the difference between the 2 plan developers and supporters. This difference is; the developer of divide and conquer plan (you) wouldn’t shut up about a plan with no gain; the developer of the announce plan (diggitcamara) has posted 2 times on his plan,a supporter (me) said he liked the announce plan better as the reward was potentially actually useful. Until shown that the risk was to great. Then both people linked in your mind to the announce plan have shut up about it.

Do you see the difference here?

ON PREVIEW: Scuba Ben, no one else can be read as the avatar except the avatar. cite

[Zeriel]

Oh man,** storyteller**'s right. To the point that if the Apprentice is revealed, it’s seems like it’d be suddenly strongly in our interest for someone to protect him full-time lest he be converted and then we’ve lost the Oracle as well.

sachertorte has a good point about Queuing’s flip-flop about DiggitCamara’s plan, but on preview I think Q’s right.

On the other hand, I don’t know why there’s so much voting for sachertorte, either–despite his harping on the plan, there’s absolutely no way for him or any of us to force the O&A to do anything, so all it really does is put a Wine Taking question on the scum–will the O&A do it, because the scum know about the plan so the O&A’d have to be crazy to do it, which is the last thing the scum would suspect.

Mgtman’s particular plan was way more detrimental to the town’s interest, he just backed off it sooner.

I’m considering backing off my vote on NAF1138, but only because there are so many interesting things happening I’m not sure who I trust least anymore.

[Zeriel]

To clarify my defense of sachertorte and mgtman, I mean–I don’t want to get into a situation where there’s any animosity about discussing plans and working them out. There’s a difference between proposing a course of behavior for power roles to follow or not at whim, and attempting to actually implement that course.

The latter, I’d think, is more worthy of a vote than the former, but like many others here I’m both a newbie and fascinated by game analysis so the idea of debating a winning strategy is appealing to me.

Finally, isn’t it a lot suspicious that Kyrie Eleison immediately jumps to kill the Apprentice rather than protect the Apprentice? Given the options town has for protective roles (Priest, Disciple, and to a small extent Alchemist), I can’t believe I missed that on my first pass through the thread this morning.

Combined with my earlier suspicion of Clockwork Jackal, that’s enough for me to
unvote NAF1138
vote Kyrie Eleison

[USCDiver]

@Captain Klutz

Because of this, the Apprentice is basically a useless role. The only useful thing they can do is identify the Avatar, as this will always be read accurately. I will say to the Apprentice, if you find the Avatar then please claim immediately.

While the Avatar is ostensibly anti-Village, his presence helps the Villagers by tempering the Cultists ability to pile onto his/her impending Drowning in the ole ‘cult voting for cult’ strategy. By doing so they risk the death of one their own.

[Scuba_Ben]

I checked the full description of the roles in #2, and my question has been answered. (But it took a while as the server’s hampsters apparantly needed feeding.)

[sachertorte]

@storyteller0910

I need to re-read both your and sachertorte’s posts a bit more carefully with this new information in mind; I think there’s a fair chance I’ll end up voting for one of you in the end.

Please do. Tell me if you find anything in coordination that makes the town over reliant on the results. Also, I think that if you missed that non-believers and cultists yield the same readings, then you should be open to the possiblity that **Mtgman **might have as well. I didn’t, but I don’t think the existence of Millers affects the coordination plan.