EBWOP: I left out the possibility that the cultists hit the Psychopath. :smack:
I think this is likely. Knowing Blaster I think he is working on a continuing story for the color text.
As I see it, here are all the possible scenarios from last night in a nutshell. If anyone else thinks of a possibility I missed, please let me know.
- Cult - Kills zuma, Crusader - chooses no kill
- Cult - Kills zuma, Crusader - gets blocked
- Cult - Kills zuma, Crusader - hits psychopath
- Cult - chooses no kill, Crusader - kills zuma
- Cult - gets blocked, Crusader - kills zuma
- Cult - hits psychopath, Crusader - kills zuma
- Cult - kills zuma, Crusader - kills zuma
It seems to me that option 4 is unlikely, as the cult will want to kill as much as they can. It also seems to me that option 7 is unlikely, although nothing in this game I have learned is impossible.
(Emphasis added to both, color removed.)
To my mind, the fact that you’ve linked yourself to another player looks very suspicious to me. Regardless of what zuma turned out to be.
And now you’re trying to play “heads I win, tails you lose”. More scumminess.
Vote Malacandra
Huh. It’s not enough to get me to throw down a vote right this minute, but I gotta say – nice catch, Pleonast…very apt description.
I was on a bit earlier than I usually am in the day but Day hadn’t started yet and I knew I’d become like storyteller was if I stayed.
The good news is, I found something to pass the time from now on, when Night has fallen (A site called flashflashrevolution).
The bad news is, Day two started an hour ago! :eek: I missed a whole hour of game. 
First things first though, R.I.P zuma. : /
Also, welcome Kat.
Okay, before I get into reading the replies (I’ve only read BM’s Dawn opening post so far as I type this), what are all the things it could be with only one Night kill?
Well, either A: The Cultists tried hitting someone like a self protecting Priest, Disciple, or Psycho (whom was activated) and were blocked and the Crusader killed off zuma
B: The Crusader tried hitting someone like a self protecting Priest, Disciple, or Psycho (whom was activated) and was blocked and the Cultists killed off zuma
C: The Crusader tried hitting someone and lost his nerve (since he only has a fifty percent chance) and the Cultists killed off zuma
D: The Crusader opted not to kill anyone and thus make the next night a sure kill for him/her and the Cultists killed off zuma
or
E: The Cultists voted NoKill and the Crusader killed off zuma.
So, going through those, I don’t think it’s E, first of all, since that would be foolish of scum, I think.
And A and B are likely but I think the chances of either of them are much slimmer (don’t know the exact numbers though) than the rest.
So that leaves C and D. And both, at least in my mind, have about an equal chance of being the case.
Anyway, time to catch up.
I’ve been sitting here thinking about it and the only thing that makes sense to my mind is that maybe the Cultists were as confused as everyone else was on the voting exchange and thought there was something behind it? Doesn’t make much sense otherwise.
Snipped.
:dubious: What makes you think the Crusader chose not to kill? It could very well be that s/he tried but it failed. Only a fifty percent chance.
Wow, good memory/find there. Although your last sentence really comes on strong and makes me worry a bit. You just seem to be really aggressive and sure there. I don’t know if this would give more evidence you’re town or scum or what. I guess it’s just your way of playing.
From your alls perspective, it means nothing. Obviously, if I had the cultists have a consistent pattern then last night would have looked like a cult kill. If I had it be distinguishably different, it would look like it was the crusader. Hence, it kinda is and kinda isn’t, such that only who actually partook in the killings knows.
IOW, I was trying to prevent the sort of discussion on my color rather than encourage it. Looks like I screwed up. :smack:
So Malacandra is trying to hitch his wagon to a dead citizen. Interesting. I am going to go back and read over the last Day’s posts and see what jumps out at me - in between finishing up my beading.
The Cult could have recruited, too, although that seems unlikely at this stage in the game. And if I’m understanding things correctly, the Crusader is only effective 50% of the time even when he or she (heesh?) chooses to kill. (I don’t know whether you’re including that under the “blocked” possibility or not.)
OK, after reviewing zuma’s posts, I have a hypothesis about why heesh was killed, although unfortunately it doesn’t tell us much about who did the killing. zuma posted a ton of informal vote counts and not much else; in this case, it just indicates that heesh was a citizen who didn’t want to go out on a limb, but this is a decent working strategy for either a Cultist or a power role who’s trying to avoid drawing too much attention – it looks vaguely helpful and commits the poster to nothing. My guess is the Cultists thought heesh was a town-aligned power role, or the Crusader mistook himmer for a Cultist, or both.
Heesh? Hahaha
Eh, I’m with sachertorte on that one. Look at it this way…say you’re the Crusader – it’s Night One, and, let’s face it, no non-scum really has any clue as to who is and isn’t a Cultist. Why would you take a shot at someone you’re not sure about that only has a 50% of succeeding? Wouldn’t you be much better served waiting the extra day to get a definite kill (hopefully on a target you’ve got a much better read on)?
Between Hockey Monkey’s and Idle Thought’s posts, I get confused:
and
Aren’t there a number of other options? (Alchemist’s involvement, etc. etc.?) What’s a really comprehensive list of possible events?
You’re right. I completely forgot about the Alchemist. :smack:
Pleonast jumping on Malacandra right off the bat – albeit for good reasons – doesn’t seem kosher to me. I agree that Malacandra trying to validate eir position over zuma’s dead body, since proven to be a Citizen, is suspicious. But Pleonast hitting on it immediately should draw analysts’ attention. To aid in that, I suspect Pleonast.
On the other hand, that’s so obvious that I doubt they’re both scum. On the third hand, Pleonast has a very good point. So suspect Malacandra too for good measure.
Lesser suspicions go to the top five vote-getters yesterDay and the bottom five posters. And of course the 18 people inbetween. (Yes, that includes me. I’m being paranoid, but am I paranoid enough?)
No, you’re not nearly paranoid enough. You have the Secret Role, see, and you don’t ever get to find out what it is, but WE all know what it is. All I’m going to tell you is that it’s really embarrassing, which is why everybody is laughing at you. Mwuh-ha-ha! 
For my list, I was counting a block as any possible reason that an action was cancelled. That could be the Alchemist blocking a role or the protection from the Priest/Disciple, etc. I did forget that the Cult could have tried to recruit, but I don’t think that was likely on the first night. I would think they would want to wait till later in the game when someone has garnered some trust amongst the other players and try a recruitment then. I wasn’t trying to confuse anyone, only trying to make a concise list of possiblities.
I don’t understand why you are getting on Pleonast - I noticed Malacandra’s trying to set himself up as golden over zuma’s mutilated body myself. Why does calling attention to it seem suspicious? We need to get conversation going now because many of us will not be available on Wednesday.
I am not necessarily defending Pleonast. While I was going back and reading yesterDay’s posts for some reason his post #248 struck me as odd. The “fatherly, I’m a more experienced player” advice he was giving to USCDiver seemed to be the kind of “I’m from the government you can trust me” stuff I distrust. Even if he did turn out to be giving the advice to the wrong player, it was the tone of it that bothered me.
Hm. Having voted for zuma, all I can say is that I honestly thought he was scum. I actually thought both him AND Mal were scum, and that they were trying to play us with their little exchange.
So either:
-
Mal isn’t scum. This is possible, but his original vote for zuma just seems so odd. “I’ll vote for this guy, just in case he turns out to be scum. That will prove that I am innocent.” But none of us, except for scum and a few of the power-roles, know who anyone else is. We all take a risk when we vote, because most of us are groping blindly and we know that if we accidentally kill a fellow townie we will be fingered ourselves. Why was Mal unconcerned with this?
-
Mal is scum. That would mean he already knew zuma was a townie. So maybe he threw out that vote to see if he could get a rise out of zuma; bait him into doing or saying something that could be construed as a scum tell. But why kill him afterwards? (This is, of course, assuming it was a cult kill.) Someone already mentioned the possibility that the scum thought zuma might be a power-role. I can buy that; his reaction and participation were quite bland, which is why I thought him scummy in the first place. Other than that, the kill makes no sense - the scum had to know that Mal would look suspicious the next Day.
Unless Mal isn’t scum. Then the cult killed two birds with one stone - they acted on their suspicions of a power-role, and threw more suspicions on a townie.
I need to go lie down now.
Oops… this was left from my draft before I got distracted at work. The Day will end at 5:00 PM EDT on Saturday. Sorry.
Howdy. Thanks for the welcome. This looks like a nice little town. I hope it is, as the last 2 towns I’ve lived in have had…messy problems (werewolves and organized crime). That’s that you say? Ritual cult killings? That’s just great. Remind me to sue my Realtor, will you?
Just off the top of my head right now:
FOS Malacandra based on the zuma thing. Every time I read the “not because I especially think I have anything on him but because, in the event of his turning up scum, it can be taken as a minor point in my favour that I was willing to see him dunked.” it judy boggles my mind. And why zuma in particular, since any player could have been plugged into that sentence with the same results. It’s a random vote attempting to look non-random, is the only thing I can make of it.
Slight FOS Pleonast for the threat over the Oracle/Apprentice discussion. I actually agree with him over the fact that the discussion went on way too long, but the vote-threat just put me off and strikes me as unnecessary. I just don’t like voting for any reason other than scum-suspicion. Only a slight FOS on this, though, because I see the point behind it, even as I disagree with it.
FOS sachertorte for flogging the Oracle/Apprentice discussion so long. This may possibly have just be newbie over-enthusiasm, but I’m not going to discount it yet.
FOS FCOD for the “player defense = scumminess” post. And also for having the word “Dooooooooooooooooooom” in his name. 
That’s my first impression suspicion detail. I’ll go re-read the thread and see how much of the first impressions I have to retract afterwards. 