Hey, you made it all the way to the end in M2!
Oh, wait… you mean between M4 and M5. Hmm…
Well that pretty much sucked ass.
–FCOD
Bugger.
Well, there goes huge chunks of game plan. See you two at the after-party.
Now to figure out who paid unwelcome attention to DiggitCamera, and find the scum hiding in the Kat burning and Malacandra mob. There were 11 votes in there, including Kat. So 40% of the remaining town voted for one or the other. Statistically, 40% of the Cultists would be in there too. More usefully, as I understand it, those would be good places to hide a vote.
(It’s not much of a plan, but it’s as good as I’ve got.)
Kat (repl. ArizonaTeach) (6) - Fretful Porpentine, Autolycus, SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison, Scuba_Ben, Idle Thoughts
Malacandra (5) - Pleonast, fluiddruid, sachertorte, Hal Briston, [del]Kat[/del]
Well shit, that sucked. 2 potentially important believer roles whittled down or gone.
Curse you, blood-thirsty (and damn lucky) heathens! Fsckity fsck.
Seriously. What are the odds that two power roles are selected on the same Night so early in the game?
Well…that sucked.
At least we know more or less who killed who this time*. The Crusader couldn’t have killed himself.
*I know the psyco could have been activated, but that is very unlikely in the grand scheme of things.
I agree with this. Most likely the Crusader killed Storyteller and The cultists went after DiggitCamara. However I find the choice of Storyteller to be a very odd one by DiggitCamara as I personally did not get a scum feeling from Story.
Observation one: If I understand the rules/roles correctly, either the secret role can kill or we know the psychopath is activated.
Observation two: I based some analysis on the fact that Mal had a nice early vote lead, and some people came out of nowhere to vote for Mal only after Kat was in the lead. Those people who voted for Malacandra to keep the vote tied up between the two of them were Idle Thoughts and Hal Briston.
Now, on one hand, Hal’s on a lot of people’s radar. And his vote for Mal was basically a throwaway based on the stupid zuma thing. On the other hand, Idle’s last-minute switch could either be seen as damn fortuitous or as a scum trying to hide as deeply as possible by putting the ice on a scum who went so far as to tiebreak with her own vote. Not only that but he didn’t mention Kat as suspicious at all in his big analysis post where he voted for Mal in the first place.
Therefore, I’m going to start off my day with a bang:
FOS Idle Thoughts
vote Hal Briston
Either one of you could push the other into the lead with a intelligent response.
I’d completely forgotten about the idea Diggit could’ve killed storyteller first. facepalm Preview preview preview!
I don’t think I buy the 40% argument, since the cultists’ votes are anything but random, and while I realize that they will vote for their own, I don’t see too many of them voting for Kat in a close vote when there were plenty of other options on the table.
I agree, Fretful Porpentine, that pure statistics won’t prove anything. I have to reread about a thousand (!!) posts and construct a careful web of who said what about whom…
Let’s see who defends or attacks Malacandra toDay. He’s the obvious first target, as he came within inches of being yesterDay’s player in the wet seat.
Next random thought: We know, at least, that Kat wasn’t the Avatar. Neither of the deaders voted for her.
Blaster Master said the Avatar-kill is a Day Kill; as in, when the Avatar is lynched, someone is immediately struck down dead on the spot.
Final thought on my lunch break–anyone wanna call the odds of Diggit having activated the Psychopath on night one? If we make that as a potential assumption, can we potentially get any ideas of who he might have been trying and failing to whack on night one?
Oy, we would have known if she was the Avatar instantly because the Avatar is a Day killer.
That being said, I would like to hear more on what you think about Hal. I am not sure why you voted for him.
It seems like you said that you are voting for him because others are finding him suspicious…which seems 
.
I am going to guess that I am misinterpreting you though. Please to explaine further. 
Hrm, I think I missed that post. Oh well, we still know it, just for even better reasons. =P
The Avatar’s backlash victim is not a night kill role. If the Avatar is burned, one of the players voting for Him is killed before Night falls.
BM said so [post=8724328]here[/post]. (On preview, HazelNutCoffee beat me to it. The reference is useful though.
I looked at my notes on ArizonaTeach after Nightfall, and had basically very little. I had nothing on Kat either, until about three minutes to (original) Nightfall; when I logged her vote and realised it broke the tie between her and Malacandra, and she had said nothing about that, my antennae twitched. (I know she explained it away, but they didn’t convince me).
Given the information available to Diggit at that time, I figure the odds were 1/28. The role description does not discuss whether a failed attack (50% chance) will also activate the Psychopath.
And stats rears its ugly head again. I, like Fretful, do not agree with this either. It might be true if the cultists did act randomly, but they don’t, so its kind of useless.
In light of full disclosure, and to save some work potentially, I was I think the only person to actually vote for DiggitCamara. I did so in day 1 . I also FOS’d him along with a number of other people here
ON PREVIEW: Scuba Ben, I find what you are saying odd. First you say we should look at who wanted to DiggitCamara dead, now you are openly threatening anyone who dares mention Malacandra? Huh?
Zeriel, that would be useless. We would have absolutely no way to know who Diggit tried, or even if he did try. We would just be wasting our time.