Basically, I looked at the voting patterns on Mal and Kat, and I determined who acted to make sure that Kat wasn’t in the dunking seat. Both Idle and Hal made essentially poorly-supported votes that kept the tally between the two potential dunkees close (albiet with Kat consistently in the lead by one. So I’m suspicious of both of them.
This is, at this point, a early-day vote. I’m willing to change it when there’s responses.
I’m less suspicious of Idle, at this moment, only because he brought the final vote. I’m still suspicious of him, because a tiebreaker could have easily continued to lean towards Kat and a dramatic vote change like that can make a reputation, after all. So for now I vote for Hal for making a poorly-supported vote that kept Kat within spitting distance of alive.
Blaster would have to clarify, but the Crusader’s role description reads in terms of him “losing his nerve” if he fails his roll, i.e. not making the attempt. From that perspective, I’d say it’s likely that the odds of this are 1/28 * 1/2 * X, where X is the inestimable probability that Diggit elected to make an attempt on the first night.
I can’t totally agree with you without looking through his posts–if I were the crusader, damn sure I’d be leaving breadcrumbs just on the off chance that I activated the psychopath.
I’m slowly getting away from pure stats, as if this was a stats game we could simply roll dice.
I’m exploring whether it would be useful to determine if DiggitCamera was murdered for a particular reason or if the Cultists simply, well, rolled dice and his number came up. (On further reflection – no, it probably wouldn’t be useful. I don’t recall any posts saying essentially “Go after X and don’t worry about Y; they’re going to bite it anyway.”)
I’m not threatening anybody who goes after Malacandra, again I’m exploring a line of investigation. Or are you trying to defend him?
Good question, and it was poorly worded in the description, but Kyrie Eleison got the gist of what I was going for here:
That is, he has a 50% chance of losing his nerve, and thus he wouldn’t even attempt the attack. The Psychopath would not be activated if he didn’t know someone was thinking about attacking him, they would actually have to try. Thus, a failed or blocked attempt would not activate the Psychopath. However, from the perspective of the killer, a failed or blocked attempt would be indistinguishable from the activation of the Psychopath.
This is a thinly veiled threat, but call it what you want. I do like that you say you are not threatening anybody and then add:
Another thinly veiled FOS. To me it seems that you are trying to end a line of investigation by basically saying anyone who mentions Malacandra will be investigated.
My personal belief is DiggitCamara chose not to kill on Night One and therefore had to kill on Night Two. I believe he chose storyteller because it was storyteller’s indictment of MtgMan that largely led to his death. DiggitCamara has already lost this game as he (the crusader) will not be able to successfully produce a non-believer/cultist night kill.
I do not believe the psychopath was activated:
Based on the evidence, a Night One activation is the only possible activation time.
The Crusader likely skipped the first nightkill as the probability is only 50% and the first day yields little information
Whoever activated the psychopath would know that activation was a possibility and would have good reason to target the same person the next night. It does not appear that such a sequence occurred, although the Crusader’s 50% probability obscures things.
We probably don’t need to worry about whether or not the psychopath was activated since this information will become easily apparent tomorrow since the Psychopath must attempt a kill every night. Without a Crusader, two deaths in one night will confirm a psychopath activation, as well as when (barring doctor blocks, alchemist… blah blah).
Blaster Master:
Based on the events of the past two weekends where the Days have both ended on the weekend when everyone is not around (including the GM), I put forth the idea that Saturday and Sunday be treated as one day to compensate for the slower traffic on weekends.
Alternatively, if you could tweak the rules so that Days only end on weekdays, I think that would be helpful to all. (e.g. force days that would end on Saturday to end on Friday instead, and force days that would end on Sunday to end on Monday)
It’s a non-important piece of information. According to the rules the Crusader’s win condition requires a successful Crusader kill of a non-believer or cultist. DiggitCamara did not achieve this requirement. He can’t win.
Ugh, sorry for the double post. While my availability is way down on the weekends (I usually actually do stuff), please god no. Why make this game even longer? Particularly based on one weekend’s worth of information?
If the days are too long, then perhaps we can shorten them instead so that the day doesn’t end on a weekend? With 5 day Days and 2 day Nights, we are stuck on a weekly schedule that has us pinned into having the important part of the Day landing on a weekend.