Oh yeah. Please note, I was intending to look at these posts and make a assessments based on fluffyness. i.e., a few substantive posts being more ‘pro-town’ than a few more fluffy posts. I don’t know if/when I’ll have time to do so. These counts could very well be skewed by posts of no consequence.
My intention was to do a more full analysis of posting rates. On day one (and two?) we had been relying on the board count of posts. I decided to count up the posts for day two, and day two only to remove fluff posts from night and pre-game. I also wanted to see if my suspicions regarding post count of particular players panned out. Beyond the obviously missing **MadTheSwine **and previously noted MonkeyMensch. I was wondering about Fretful Porpentine, Nava, USCDiver, Malacandra, and SnakesCatLady. Based on post count alone, I was surprised to see Fretful Porpentine with 11 posts, which could very well be due to my own perceptive inabilities (I need to check). Furthermore, I was surprised to see Nava and SnakesCatLady’s 8 posts were equal with other players I did not note as ‘low substance’ (HazelNutCoffee, Pasta, Storyteller). I was not surprised to see USCDiver with only 5 posts.
Other surprises include **Pleonast **, who I did not note as ‘missing,’ with just 3 posts. (I hope I didn’t mess this count up).
**Autolycus ** and **FlyingCowOfDoom **with 5 posts weren’t on my radar either, but that is most likely due to the high profile from Day One. But the low post count for Day Two might warrant further study.
I didn’t have time to do more analysis before (what I thought was) the end of Day, so I just posted the counts for everyone to have.
I am a little bit sensitive to the idea of ‘substantive’ posting, as I’ve had the lack of substance accusation thrown at me. Perhaps it would be beneficial if everyone did a summary of their own “Here is the evidence of my participation,” with links to every substantive post made, divided into Day one and Day two. It would save quite a bit of time and effort and would serve as a good record for future re-readings.
As I sad earlier, I’m not allowed to post during the working day, and I find that in the evenings I find I’m really drained and don’t always have the energy to do the stuff I want to do. The day I get the most quality time on the game is Saturday.
I’ve got another four weeks of my sentence to serve (at the end of this one) and then I’ll be able to give more time to the game.
That being said, please remember that the Days do get shorter as the number of players fall, so ultimately you’ll get your wish.
I’ve started doing a count of posts by period, but so far have only got up to page 4 - that is, three posts into Day 1. I’ll pick it up again as time allows. When I’m done we just need to find some way to host it.
Holy crap. That wasn’t a very good or confidence inspiring Night.
First of all, I’m haven’t read any posts in here yet but the Dawn post. So apologizes if some of these insights were already mentioned.
A lot of possibilities there too…although the most obvious and likely one seems to be that Diggit, the Crusader killed storyteller, one of the Monks, and the Cultists offed Diggit.
That’s what I think it was and certainly one of the more (if not most) plausible.
However there’s scores of other possibilities, even combining Night One with some of them (AKA Diggit tried someone and was successful but it was the Psycho, who was activated and toNight his attempt failed and the scum killed him and the Psycho killed storyteller, Diggit tried someone and was successful but it was the Psycho, who was activated and toNight his attempt failed and the scum killed storyteller and the Psycho killed him, Diggit is the one that killed zuma and the Cultists were the one to activate the Psycho, and toNight etc etc etc…the list goes on with various combos of the Cult, Crusader, possible activated Psycho, possible tries on Priests or Disciples, or Alchemist blocks–and this leads me to remember something Diggit mentioned to me on Day Two in this post, which may or may not have clues in it regarding if he made an attempt to hit someone that previous Night or not)
But pushing all that aside, I think the most likely and choice with best odds, again, is just the simple Crusader hits Monk and Cult hits Crusader outline.
IF it’s that (and I’ll be talking in the mindframe that is is) then I wonder why Diggit found storyteller scummy. Maybe he was operating under the belief that story, based on M2, was trying to pull a fast one again? I dunno. I can only speak for myself, but story didn’t set off any of my tripwires…so that’s the only thing that makes me wonder. But more importantly, why Diggit for the Cult? Going over his posts from the last two days, he doesn’t seem to say much or give anything away. Course, that could be the reason right there. But him having that power role, it’s making me try to see something he could have said that made him seem likely for it and I just don’t/can’t see it.
But time to catch up for me:
You know, one name I keep seeing on all of these lists is Pleonast. Not only was he on the Day One train of Mtgman but people seemed to think that someone on there could have possibly taken it away from one of the other three at the time (Kat, Kyrie or Auto or hell, maybe even two or all three of them).
Day Two, he’s on another like it again with Mal. Granted he WAS the one that cast the first vote there before there was ever a tie to break or even knowledge there’d be a close one, but when I look at all of the past Days posts and votes, he’s the biggest suspicion I have right now.
Now Mal still may be scummy TOO (I still haven’t ruled him out completely) but based on two other full Days of suspicions I’ve had against Pleonast, this just heightens it for me, considerably. I’d really like to hear from him today.
How do you draw these conclusions?
“Out of nowhere”? I expressed suspicion of Mal and continued to build on it in my posts as early as Day One when he cast that WTF vote on zuma. I even said at the beginning of Day Two that he and Pleonast were among my top two suspected players. I wasn’t even drawn to Kat (nor was I AZteach at all when he was still in the game) until nearing the end when it seemed like she was voting for Mal just to save her own neck, but kept protesting this wasn’t the case and was seemingly “oblivious” to it.
So I don’t know where your’e getting the vote being out of nowhere. Yeah, my vote, at the time, tied it up, but at the time each person only had FOUR votes apeice. I dunno, but I’d be more concerned if someone was casting a or the killer/deciding vote (which Kat was trying to do) and call them out on it.
Because, as I said, I honestly HAD zero suspicions of Kat/Teach before that.
:dubious:
We knew that Kat wasn’t the Avatar at the end of the last Day. Otherwise, as with most roles, I assume Blaster would have said “Kat, the Avatar, has been dunked/killed [whatever it is he says]” rather than “Kat, a Cultist has been dunked/killed”.
Are you just now figuring out she wasn’t the Avatar?
Oh, nevermind, I see/read that others have pointed this out.
It’s always nice to see that someone else sees the same things I did/do and is struck the same way by them.
The only thing I disagree with you on is, like the “out of nowhere” line above is the “poorly-supported vote” line. I had about as much as everyone else did and as far as I can tell, most all who voted for him (Mal) did so for his vote Day One and trying to seemingly have it both ways on Day Two. As far as I can disacern, therefore, the only thing that makes Hal and I different from the rest is that we placed votes that lead to a tie.
Huh.
That’s what I asked her (him?) on Day Two when she said it. I don’t get it completely either.
Time for my first convoluted vote analysis post of the game. I’m looking at who **ArizonaTeach ** and **Kat ** voted for, who voted for them, and the timing of the votes and how the votes for **Mtgman ** and **Malacandra ** weave in.
Day One:
**ArizonaTeach ** votes **Zeriel ** then about 2 hours or so later unvotes. Seemed like a scummy thing at the time and several people noted it as such. Scum will vote and unvote each other to confuse the trail. FOS Zeriel.
The first vote for AZTeach(1) doesn’t come until post 585 by NAF1138.
**Autolycus ** votes AZT(2) post 767 Scuba_Ben votes MtgMan(1) post 783
**Mtgman ** votes AZT(3) post 804 and puts **AZT ** into a tie with sachertorte(3), Clockwork Jackal/Kyrie Eleison(3) at 3 each
**Storyteller ** (now dead) votes Mtgman(2) post 824 Kyrie Eleison votes AZT(4) post 847 and breaks tie Hal Briston votes Mtgman(3) post 856 DiggitCamara (now dead) votes Mtgman(4) post 867 putting **AZT ** and **Mtgman ** in a tie at 4 each
**Zeriel ** votes Mtgman(5) post 870, breaks tie
**Pleonast ** votes Mtgman(6) post 871
**Mhaye ** votes Mtgman(7) post 874 Hockey Monkey (me) votes Mtgman(8) post 884
Day Two: It really comes down to **Kat ** vs **Malacandra ** so I’ll focus on those.
**Pleonast ** comes out of the gate with a vote for Mal(1) post 1004
**Fluiddruid ** votes Mal(2) post 1031 Fretful Porpentine votes Kat(1) post 1064
**sachertorte ** votes Mal(3) post 1119
**Autolycus ** votes Kat(2) post 1120
**SnakesCatLady ** votes Kat(3) post 1142 - ties her with Mal
**Kat ** tosses in a vote for **sachertorte ** post 1124
**Cookies ** votes for Kat(4) post 1154 Kyrie Eleison votes Kat(5) post 1166 Idle Thoughts votes Malacandra(4) post 1167
**Cookies ** unvotes Kat(4) post 1171 - ties vote - FOS **Cookies ** for this unvote
**Kat ** unvotes **sachertorte ** post 1183 FOS **sachertorte ** for the same reasons as my FOS on Zeriel Scuba_Ben votes Kat(5) post 1233 Hal Briston votes Mal(5) post 1267 - ties vote
**Kat ** votes Mal(6) post 1273 breaks tie in her favor Idle Thoughts unvotes Mal(5) post 1281 Idle Thoughts votes Kat(6) post 1309
This whole analysis puts quite a few people over into my “more trusted” column now. **Autolycus ** and Kyrie Eleison both voted for AZT/Kat both days, and left there votes there. Idle Thoughts single-handedly swung the vote and dunked the Kat. I’m not sure if this is a brilliant scum tactic or a fortuitous townie move, but for right now I’ll go with townie move. Fretful Porpentine is off my FOS list for now because she voted **Kat ** first on day two. I’m also sliding **Malacandra ** into that colomn, because I think if **Kat ** and **Mal ** were both scum, she would have just let it go to a tie and let the chips fall.
People who get giant FOS’s from me are the ones who swung the vote on day one over to **Mtgman ** and effectively saved **AZTeach’s ** ass. **Diggit ** was going to be one of those, but since he’s dead, that narrows the scope down to **Zeriel ** and Pleonast. I’ve already noted reasons above.
To sum up: FOS Zeriel
FOS Pleonast
lighter FOS sachertorte
lighter FOS ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
I have a lot of thinking and re-reading to do, and of course take into account today’s discussion before casting a vote. It took me all day to compose this during work. I haven’t caught up on the days discussion yet, so I may be back shortly to comment.
[random off-game comment]I had never heard or seen the word “fortuitous” before reading it twice today and had to go look up what it meant. I learned a new word today and a little less ignorance is seeped from the world. Thanks Mafia V![/random off-game comment]
Someone may have addressed this already, but why do you say that the Crusader can’t/couldn’t have fulfilled his win condition? There is more than one non-believer in the game…in fact at least 2 more…the player who is the psychopath thinks he/she is a regular non-believer till activated, and the Alchemist is a non-believer. We don’t know how many non-believers there were to start, but there were at least 3 according to Blaster Master. And I am pretty sure there is more than one cultist or the game would be over right now.
I am disinclined to lengthen the day because I think five is about the limit for a reasonable Day, even though the unfortunate timing of the Day ending on the weekend makes it difficult for me to end the Day promptly.
However, if it seems the general concensus of the town is for the Day to be shortened to four days now… that is something I’m willing to do. I had expected the player count to drop to 20 in about four Days, and thought with this many people the extra day would be helpful; but it looks like it may be unnecessary at this point.
I’ve been doing some re-reading, and am going to post my notes.
Why did ArizonaTeach vote for Zeriel after Zeriel accused Captain Klutz of lurking? Queuing brought this up in post 1133 and it really made me start looking for posts from Captain Klutz - but I haven’t found any. I have in my notes that he voted yesterDay, but I didn’t notice any posts from him in the last 7 pages. I may have missed them, but it definitely makes me want to take a closer look at the Captain.
Hal Briston made some comments about Queuing’s list - “four FOS’s and a vote in two sentences” that bothered me. He seemed to act like it was a bad idea for us to list who we suspect, and the only ones who benefit from that are Cult.
I am very suspicious of Hockey Monkey. When she cast her one-off vote for Fretful Porpentine yesterDay, one of the reasons she gave for the vote was a one-off vote FP had cast. Another of the reasons was that FP was one of the players to ask “why zuma?” at the beginning of Day 2. However, another of the players she quoted as saying “why zuma?” was fluiddruid, who had at least three votes at the time. So why do something you consider suspicious (throwing a one-off) when someone else you suspect already has votes? Now she is saying she no longer suspects FP, because FP cast the first vote for Kat.
I am also concerned that we haven’t heard from Mad the Swine; he checked in on Sunday and I don’t think he has posted since.
I’m not placing a vote yet, but will be keeping up.
Yes, I was exceedingly wrong in my logic. I didn’t vote for **Fluiddruid ** because I felt that one of the askers of the “why zuma” question was genuine, and I thought that it might be fluid. Yep, I made a one off vote. Heh, I think that was the first in about seven lynches (from M4 and this game) that I did not participate. (I was a crew member on the Pirate ship who somehow managed to have a lynching vote every single time!) I really thought that Fretful was where my vote should go, and I knew that it would look bad to some people if it ended up being the only vote for him/her. I don’t recall that I suspected **Fluiddruid ** at all. I think I said I was suspicious of **Fretful ** and **sachertorte ** (who at the time didn’t have any votes either.) And now that we have information to gather from **Kat’s ** lynching, I don’t suspect **Fretful ** anymore.
You’ve mentioned a couple of times that you didn’t like it that I didn’t pick from someone on the list already. I don’t see why I should have to. I prefer to do my own thinking. Sometimes I come to the same conclusions as others and sometimes I end up way out there in left field having a picnic by myself. I can admit when I’m wrong and move on.
rummages through the picnic basket So that’s where I left the asbestos panties from last game!
Idle, I’ll admit I didn’t go back too far, but from my re-read it seemed like you hadn’t mentioned any suspicions of Mal prior to that post, and then you came out of nowhere. And honestly, I was more worried about your essentially unsupported vote for Kat–either you flipped a coin and got REAL lucky, or you’re a calculating scum. I’m not sure which one yet.
For now the FOS is still pointing, but not quite as adamantly.
As was pointed out by others, Pleonast was mixed up in the dunk voting. My notes had almost nothing on him, so I went for another player workup.
My summary:
There are certaintly a couple scummy nits here and there, with a weak vote or two.
Many people picked at these (although I think most cases involved folks talking past one another.)
But, overall I saw a lot of consistency, pro-town strategy talk, and general pro-town vibe.
Since I’m looking for scum here, I stopped around post 605 since I was getting a “townie” read. I went ahead and finished up the post list with a few links for those who want to investigate Pleonast more. For me, I’m going to look for a taller nail in the board.
(I should note that a lot of people talked about Pleonast in their posts, so the summary below is far from a complete “workup” since other people’s observations are still sprinkled throughout the thread.)
The post list:
Day 1
221 - discusses whether to dunk or not (says yes), votes randomly for USCDiver
234 - discussion of random voting (says “no better alternative”)
240 - continues; brings up whether to dunk
248 - continues
249 - simple erratum
303 - clarifies position on Day 1 random voting
387 - voices “nay” re: sachertorte’s plan; votes MadTheSwine (no reason given)
392 - says will vote for next person who discusses pro-town power roles
400 - short post re: random voting
405 - unvotes MadTheSwine, votes sachertorte (reason: see 392)
415 - more urging to stop O/A discussion; suggests other topics (avatar, recruitment)
421 - short followups; nothing new
447 - gives 5 reasons no to discuss oracle
573 - big post; just go read it here; unvotes sachertorte, votes Malacandra (for zuma weirdness)
588 - reaction to accusations from ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies; another one you can just read here
596 - “vote early, vote often”
605 - …lots of reasonable…
610 - …statements that I haven’t summarized because…
632 - …at this point in the research I’m…
764 - …just not seeing scum here…
823 - makes a suspect list
871 - unvotes Malacandra, votes his #2Mtgman
Day 2
1004 - votes Malacandra for continued zuma stuff
1036 - responds to any accusations {consistent with his previous posts, in my estimation}
1205 - “I’ve been away”
I agree with you on this Pasta. It does look bad for Pleonast on paper, but if you really look at it, Pleonast just isn’t reading as scum. At least not yet. I am not a fan of his playstyle, but I think that is all this is.
And not to beat a dead horse, but this is why we need to look at more than just stats. We need to take a look at things in context and see who is really behaving in a pro town fashion. The scummiest looking players almost never turn out to actually be scum.
For now I fluid is still highest on my suspicion list, but all I really have against her is a wine in front of me argument and a gut feeling. I need to go back and take a closer look at some of the players I have been neglecting, see if there is something I missed. It is easy to get tunnel vision in this game.
Just wanted to hit this topic one more time before I head off. Like all games of this I’m in, it’s like heroin.
I honestly thought it’d have more replies than what it has now, though. Only about one full page even a good 12 or so hours after Day started.
As with Mal my vote for Kat, I thought, was pretty apparent with the reasons and why’s and all. Her reasons and things she said in her last vote (which by the way, was the deciding vote for the tie) just seemed off. She seemed to be voting, but more or less just based on suspicions she had said wayyy early on and seemed to forget about…even taking time out in the middle to say things like “I need to find someone else to vote for” (verbatim) before hopping back on the Mal train, and what more, saying it was just because she had some suspicions of him (when, in fact, she had three other people she had named back then) and singled him out seemingly, saying nothing of the fact that it was the killer vote until AFTER that post. These struck me hard and when I questioned her about it, more things popped up (like her saying she was afraid to cast a vote that would tie it up…yet she was fine enough to cast a vote to BREAK the tie and that whole telling me that she’ll explain at Dawn…without putting the possibility out that she might not even be around at Dawn–knowing what we know now, I feel this was a slip or mistake) and so I felt like I had a lot of good and supported reason to vote for her. I dunno, do you honestly think I didn’t? Maybe I’m misunderstanding you or taking what you’re saying wrong.
I had some posts earlier in the Day (pages 22 and 23, so I’m not sure what last 7 pages you’re looking at). There was also my voting post #1264, in which I explained why I was not joining the Malacandra bandwagon.
I’m only just catching up now (for me, Day 3 started at 3 a. m. and my wife has only just relinquished the computer).
Yes, I saw #1118. I was just a bit struck by your #902 because the off-game-musing was the entire content of the post: it looked like something you wanted to say, rather than a casual side comment.
But, rereading 1118 I notice that you said that you were bored at the time, and so presumably just felt like posting something (I suppose that also ties in with your ‘heroin’ comment above). I’m happy with your explanation.
As Nairu spoke in the Book of Rude Things, Chapter threeve verse A: “Thou shall substitute from slaying cultists if thou hast a prior engagement and does not have time to fulfill ems duties”
In plain words, I apologize, but I must drop out. I’ll be out of the country and much too busy to play, even at my slow pace. At least I helped greatly in getting a scum though
I haven’t caught up on the days discussion yet, so I may be back shortly to comment.
and that whole telling me that she’ll explain at Dawn…without putting the possibility out that she might not even be around at Dawn–knowing what we know now, I feel this was a slip or mistake) and so I felt like I had a lot of good and supported reason to vote for her. I dunno, do you honestly think I didn’t? Maybe I’m misunderstanding you or taking what you’re saying wrong.