I think Bernie is likely to take Missouri and Illinois. If he pulls off a surprise in Ohio, well then HRC is going to be very annoyed. But even with that scenario, she is certain to win Florida and widen her lead in delegates by a significant amount.
It nice, but I think CNN will reject it as too long and containing the word “wee”
Missouri and Illinois are toss ups. But there’s also N. Carolina (Clinton) and Ohio. A upset in Ohio would be very good for Sanders.
IIRC, polls in one or two of the states close at 7:30pm Eastern time, and the rest close at 8pm Eastern.
Florida at 7, Ohio and North Carolina at 7:30, Illinois and Missouri at 8. The talking heads will be busy this evening.
A small piece of Florida is on Central Time. I don’t know if they’ll release results before those polls close.
Bernie’s not going anywhere. He’s got a ton of money, and at the very least he can force Hillary to move to the left. And the longer he stays in and collects votes and delegates, the more relevant he remains going into the convention.
which is good- why?
You’re not real clear on the process, are you? Either Clinton or Sanders will have more than 50% of the delegates going into the convention. Nobody else has any. The one with less than 50% becomes *powerless and electorally irrelevant *the moment that gets clinched. The runner-up will then graciously concede, end his campaign, and endorse the nominee.
Sanders’ ability to influence Clinton or the Democratic campaign is very near the end, not the beginning.
No. Gotta wait until 8.
An official release of results is one thing, but will CNN make a projection before the panhandle precincts close? True, announcing Gore as winning Florida in 2000 before they closed may have played a part in what happened that year, but I thought that they decided that they could declare a winner in a two-time-zone state if enough of the precincts were in the earlier time zone and they were confident of the result.
I think that as a result of 2000, they put in rules that the media isn’t allowed to call a race until all polls have closed. Which leads to obvious states being called at 8:00:01 with 0.5% of precincts reporting.
The loser might not have any direct power, but they can still point to their delegates and say “See? There are a lot of people who want these policies, and so you’ll get more votes in the general election and in your re-election bid if you make some moves towards those policies.”. And the more delegates you’re pointing to when you say that, the stronger the message will be.
Plus, there’s the possibility that neither of them will get a majority of the pledged delegates, in which case you can expect wheeling and dealing to try to get enough of the superdelegates to switch sides.
Yes. But it requires resort to eldritch and blasphemous dark arts, and the spiritual cost is high.
Except that the loser will have conceded and endorsed long before that, so the convention will be the usual pep rally.
Dream on.
I don’t know that the media called the race, but both Michigan and Texas were reporting results from closed precincts while the small number in the other time zone were still open. It may be different for primaries.
I must be misunderstanding what you are trying to say here. There are only two candidates and an odd number of pledged delegates. It’s guaranteed that one of them will get a majority of the pledged delegates.
I’m not convinced that’s true. Historically, candidates always tack toward the center after the primaries. Because, for the most part, even voters that didn’t vote for you in the primaries are very likely to vote for you in the general, regardless of your policies, since you’re so much more palatable than the other party’s candidate.
And you can potentially gain all those juicy independent votes by moderating. Which makes me doubt seriously that the also-ran candidates in your own party have much of a policy input.
I’m sure there are some people who
(a) voted for Bernie,
(b) won’t vote for Hillary, but
(c) would vote for Hillary if she shifted left.
I would bet (a lot) that there aren’t nearly enough of them compared to the undecided voters who didn’t vote in either primary, or the sane Republicans fleeing trump who might vote for a moderate hawkish Democrat, but not for a more liberal one.
Bernie’s influence (in this election cycle) is nearing its end.
Lance, I think Chronos is saying that Hillary and Bernie might end up with enough pledged delegates that the super delegates decide the election. Which could potentially result in some horse trading to secure the nomination. Seems very unlikely to me.
Trump won the Northern Mariana Islands. 9 delegates.
Looks like it may be another very bad night for Rubio. The Florida results are beginning to come in and Trump is leading.
Rubio said today that he will continue his campaign even if he loses Florida.
If a candidate campaigns in a forest, and no one is there to hear him …
