If you want to get a sense of how Mayweather might deal with someone with more power, ignore the Pacquiao fight and look at Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, and Canelo Alvarez. The problem with those fights is that they were 8, 7, and 4 years ago respectively, but even so, it’s absurd to suggest that McGregor is anywhere in their league as boxers.
Those who’ve seen McGregor in MMA will point out that he has amazing raw power, and he absolutely does. But this is professional middleweight boxing, and it’s not like Mayweather hasn’t seen power before. In fact, Mayweather has gotten clocked and he got clocked hard by Mosley in the first round. And as I’ve said previously, this is the stage of the fight where ‘wild shit could happen’. Mosley landed hard but Mayweather adjusted and started picking Mosley apart in the later rounds. Keep in mind that Mosley’s a professional boxer who knows how to defend himself from the waist up. McGregor can probably land a stiff punch like Mosley did, but Mayweather saved himself by tying up. Would McGregor know how to avoid a tie up? Would McGregor be able to withstand combinations in the later rounds the way Mosley did? Boxing survival instincts and tricks are different from MMA.
The Miguel Cotto fight is analogous because it was one of Mayweather’s longest layoffs. Cotto is also about McGregor’s height and gets good leverage on his punches. He has good power. Mayweather struggled at times but was able to counter with some flurries and finished the fight well. Can McGregor defend against Mayweather’s counter the way Cotto did? Does he have the stand-up endurance Cotto had?
Alvarez was Mayweather’s toughest opponent in recent years. But Alvarez, unlike McGregor, is a solid boxer. He knows how to box, to use combinations, and to defend himself against flurries. He knows how to jab and set up a jab followed by a straight right/left. Does McGregor know how to do this effectively? Does he know how to use the ring? Alvarez is a pretty close approximation to McGregor in both size and power, and he is far superior in terms of boxing skill. And he lost a majority decision.
For McGregor to win, he will have to land a shot like Mosley’s but so fucking hard that Mayweather has no chance to recover. It could happen - McGregor is a beast. But the odds are against it. More realistically, I could see McGregor confusing Mayweather and perhaps even using his aggression to confuse, frustrate, and intimidate him in the first 2-3 rounds. But once Mayweather gets comfortable, once he eats a little bit of McGregor’s leather and feels confident he can survive, then he’ll go on the attack.
About those 8 ounce gloves. They might work to McGregor’s favor, but it’s also possible that Mayweather wants the lighter gloves. He’s a 40 year-old man. Lighter gloves means more hand speed to compensate for the speed he has lost with heavier gloves.
