Major sports sites like ESPN keep flogging the idea that the Red Sox are “top suitors” for players like Bregman and Alonso, noting that Boston is sitting on top of a big pile of money after “trading” away Rafael Devers.
Not sure when it will finally dawn on these writers that the rules current management operate under prevent offering lucrative deals to players over the age of 30. Sew up promising young talent like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell (cough), then dump them in their prime, sure. But the biggest contracts for established stars are left to other teams, while the Red Sox are left in limbo, closer in financial outlook to teams like the Rays than the Dodgers.
Unless there’s an ownership epiphany, fans will have to settle for occasional runs at a wild-card spot.
The Yankees non-tender Michael Arias, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Ian Hamilton, and Mark Leiter Jr. In other words half of the bullpen. I absolutely hated seeing Leiter come in a game. He stunk so bad. I feel bad about Scott Effross. When they first picked him up I thought he had the potential to be something special. Then almost immediately he had to have Tommy John. He looked nothing like his old self when he managed to come back.
Seems a little early for big moves. The Winter Meetings don’t start for a few more weeks. The Mets aren’t waiting. They trade Brandon Nimmo for Trevor Semien. I guess it saves a little money witb their current contracts. Nimmo had a better year last year. The Mets aren’t hoping for a bounce back year from Semien. It’s an indication that the Mets are going to be going after Tucker or Bellinger for the outfield. Semien should help the defense.
Marcus Semien. The money is pretty neutral, Semien makes more but only has 3 years left instead of 5. Also, at least by WAR, Semien had a better year than Nimmo, with much of the value from defense. I don’t love the trade, as I worry Semien is going to fall off a cliff offensively soon, but I understand the rationale. Also sad to lose the longest tenured Met who I liked since we drafted him from a state with no high school baseball.
Non sequitur: many teams have historically used a huge influx of young talent to catapult them into championship contention, and Boston does seem to have a pretty large batch of such right now. As a Red Sox fan I frankly don’t want either one of these guys near my team’s rosters, as while they may have been solid players at one time, they are on the bad side of 30 (as you yourself admitted) in a sport which has increasingly become a young-man’s sport. Alonzo will turn 31 in 2 weeks and has no defensive value: while 80 extra base hits are nifty, his comp list (scroll down 60% of the page) thru his current age is absolutely littered with guys who drove off the cliff in their early 30’s.
Bregman had a very good season going before he got injured, but came back and wasn’t the same: he’ll turn 32 at the end of spring training. A strategic free agent signing can certainly work, to fill in holes that your system failed to develop a player for, but to suggest that free agency is a necessary/vital part of building a championship contender is pretty silly.
He’s hit in the .230s his last two seasons, so the slide is well underway.
The Mets struggled badly to score runs in key situations last year, continuing a trend where their power bats haven’t sufficiently carried the offensive load. Seems to me they need guys who consistently get on base for the power hitters to drive in, and Semien doesn’t fit that bill, despite offering good defense.
I don’t claim to understand everything about WAR but Semien is only slightly higher. And he had 30 fewer RBIs. He is an improvement over McNeil on defense. The only way this really makes sense is if they are counting on bringing in a big name outfielder.
Don’t have to use WAR, but really don’t use RBIs. Semien batted 1st and 2nd most of the year. Not going to be a ton of RBI opportunities there.
The general point is Semien was an averageish hitter and above average defender. If he can maintain that the next 3 years than great and the Mets will be happy regardless of what they do to replace Nimmo. 2b basemen do tend to fall off the cliff though as they age, so is a risky bet. Not that Nimmo who is probably not going to be fully healthy ever again isn’t risky in his own right.
Aaron Judge has spent a lot of time near the front of the batting order and has managed to get a lot of RBIs. Semien got 100 RBIs a few years ago. Nimmo is also 30 points higher in batting average and 100 points higher in OPS.
They could greatly improve on defense much cheaper. It’s not hard to get a good field no hit infielder. They are hoping to get 2023 Semien which I doubt will happen. They dumped Nimmo without knowing they can get one of their free agent outfield targets and they get a fading second baseman.
This is the argument. There isn’t a stat around that will say you can hope to expect more than a shade of a player’s age 28-32 peak at age 35. Especially for a 2B.
In his Cy season, he only struck out 2.7 per 9 (or 7.4%). That kind of pitcher is completely extinct, outside of some small sample size scrubs with less than 10 innings (many of which likely were position players pitching in blowouts); maybe you can stretch it in the modern day to include guys who K around 6 per 9 like Bryan Bello, but there really isn’t anyone who is effective with a rate below that. That type of pitcher historically even if they won an occasional Cy here and there tended to have pretty poor longevity, as they were pitching on the edge as it was, and once they lost it they had no base velocity to fall back on.
My guess is that the competition has never been higher, average velocity too natch, and hitters with their uppercut swings may be, paradoxically, more effective against sinkerballers than one might think. Part of it likely involved being able to coast through the easy parts of the lineups at the bottom of the order; now most everybody is a HR threat and pitchers never hit anymore.
Jones was a outlier, but two years before, the fearsome Catfish Hunter won the Cy Young while averaging only 4.0 K’s per 9. I guess it’s no surprise why there were so many all field/no hit middle-infielders back then.
Both are declining assets but if I was just interested in winning in 2026, and had to choose one, I’d choose Semien, who obviously has more defensive flexibility.
Boston has acquired Sonny Gray from St. Louis in exchange for left-handed prospect Brandon Clarke and right-hander Richard Fitts. Boston is also sending $20 million.
As the ESPN article points out, Boston now has two of the five pitchers to record 200 strikeouts for the past two seasons (the other Red Sock to do this was Garrett Crochet).
Semien has never been a no hit infielder. Even last year, he was roughly league average. An avg hitting, very good defensive 2nd baseman has value. Those are not easy to find. Probably about as much value as an above average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre corner outfield spot. I don’t anyone expects either them to reach their peak again (though not impossible either has an offensive spike, hasn’t been that long ago since they were great), so the question is who is going to maintain their value best going forward.
Since league average has been dwindling being league average hitter kinda sucks. And Semien hit below league average while making $26 million for the next few years.