I wonder how much his stated reasons are sincere versus him actually preferring to be the sole Japanese player because that way he gets 100% of the extra media attention as the novelty player?
OTOH, Japanese players are not the novelty they once were. In 20 years there may be an average of one per team. But at least now, for most teams other than LA, there is significant Japanese novelty value provided the player’s performance makes them one of the standouts on their team.
No way to know. Yet. If he keeps talking we may find out.
An average hitter isn’t worth a big contract. He’s worth an average contract. League average was .245. Semien hit .230. Paying $26 million for a .230 hitter doesn’t make sense. There are cheaper good fielders how can hit .230. They are paying for the player he was and to get out of a long term contract two years earlier.
Minor correction: the Cards are sending $20 million to help pay Gray’s salary.
If this is Boston’s idea of a #2 pitcher behind Crochet, they’re going to need to score a lot of runs, which will be made harder if, as seems highly likely, they don’t sign any of the big free agent bats on the market.
ESPN’s story on the trade refers to Gray as “durable”, which seems like damning with faint praise, as well as ironic if the same thing happens with Gray as with their previous “innings eating” signing, Lucas Giolito (who promptly went on the shelf for a year with injury before returning to pitch well in '25).
This is more evidence of the Red Sox being willing to dig into their farm system to acquire veterans, but not to shell out for free agents.
Of course he isn’t worth his contract. Neither is Nimmo. The whole point is figuring out who is going to retain more of their value either going forward since they are roughly even at the moment. Of course if you are still using batting average and rbis as your main determinates of value in 2025, you are going to massively underrate Semien, so its hard to have a discussion on maintaining value when not understanding the starting point.
In other trades, I think Gray is a strong addition for the Red Sox. The price was fairly minimal, and Gray gives them at least another mid rotation arm. If they can add a big bat (hey that Devers guy would fit well) they might be the favorites in a pretty wide open AL.
ISTM a lot of this stuff is a matter of having overpaid for a contract earlier, and now figuring out what’s the cheapest way to climb out of those earlier mistakes.
Both of these comments I think overlook just how valuable having average hitters up and down your lineup and league-average innings-eaters in your rotation can be.
There is a quality in quantity, and while there is no guarantee they will stay healthy, both Gray and Semien have produced a lot of quantity over the last few years.
Gray averages 195 IP at about 17% better than league average. That’s a great piece to have in your rotation (although, as the Cards found out, not quite good enough to be the ace).
Since 2018 Semien has averaged about 650 PAs at about 14% better than league average hitting. While playing good defense in the field. Is he worth his contract going forward? Probably not. But getting that kind of production from a FA would be tough, and since they could unload Nimmo’s contract as well I think it’s a pretty good deal.
It is not even necessarily mistakes. Just the way aging works, players are usually going to provide excess value in the early years and be “overpaid” in the later ones. The Rangers have gotten well more than their 103 million investment in the first 4 years of Semien’s contract, even he is unlikely to be worth the money in the last 3 years.
Yeah. I realized that too late to edit. Thanks for pointing that out.
As always with predicting the future, you can use excellent logic applied to perfect data and still end up making a decision that works out badly due to chance. Which is not a “mistake”
Your point about production being (generally) higher in the early years suggests the whole system is a little messed up. A contract for an e.g. 27 yo should be front loaded, not back loaded, if we’re supposed to get the same value for dollar each year. But time value of money is also involved. As is the increasing risk over time that the player will significantly over- or under-perform vs. expectations. Under- often being a proxy for injuries.
Starting pitcher Dylan Cease, who spent the past two seasons with the Padres, signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays today.
Cease was a Cy Young finalist in 2022 (with the White Sox) and 2024 (with the Padres), but was not nearly as good in '23 or '25. However, he’s a workhorse – he’s started 32 or 33 games in each of the past five seasons – and he’s just turning 30.
As the 2027 season likely isn’t happening, it’s probably closer to $180 million for six years.
Toronto is trying to win it all in 2026 to make up for choking it away in 2025, and the franchise is made of money and sees now as the time to strike; they have players in thier prime, the AL isn’t very strong, no time like the present! If Cease isn’t worth much in 2032, they don’t care. The big market teams can do this; the term of the contract to THEM is not what it is to the player. A team like the Jays, or like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets, see this as being $210 million for four or five years, and if they make a World Series it’s worth it to them. If Cease is actually worth something in Year 6 or 7, awesome, but Rogers Communications has more money than God and owns the stadium and the sports networks so they cash in big time when the team is good; they’ll make it all back if Cease helps them make it far a few times. For the big bucks franchises the benefits are front loaded and the costs are back loaded. The teams that employ Juan Soto, Vladdy Jr., or Aaron Judge don’t care if they’re worth anything when they’re 39.
Anyway, the Blue Jays are shedding $34 million out of the starting rotation; Bassitt and Scherzer are gone. They are essentially being replaced in the rotation, and salary-wise, by Cease and Bieber, who next year will cost perhaps $45 million (not sure how the Cease deal is constructed.) (Yes, they also will roll out Trey Yesavage, making the minimum, but in salary terms Yesavage basically replaces Eric Lauer and Bowden Francis, who also didn’t make much.) An $11 million price tag to upgrade from Bassitt/Scherzer to Cease/Bieber is reasonable.
Expect more moves, as the starting lineup is a jumble and Bo Bichette remains unsigned.
Devin Williams going to the Mets. He couldn’t handle the closing role with the Yankees last year. If Edwin Diaz signs with the Mets he won’t be needed in that role. Time will tell.
I like it. No opt and only 3 years is a good structure for Mets and the money is reasonable. His underlying numbers were only slightly worse last year than normal, and it really was only a bad couple months. He should be a top 5ish closer going forward (or setup man if Diaz is also resigned).
Kyle Schwarber stays with the Phillies for the next 5 years. One of the top free agents is off the board. He had a phenomenal year but that’s a lot of money for an aging DH.
And Edwin Diaz signs with the Dodgers. 3 years, $69 million. Predictable that that is where he’d end up, but going to be a lot of unhappy Mets fans out there.
They will be especially unhappy if Devin Williams starts blowing saves for them like he did for the Yankees. Maybe he turns it around but he was untrustworthy as a closer last year.
I felt Diaz was a must sign for the Mets. But it takes two to tango. Maybe he didn’t want to go back no matter what.
Maybe the Mets weren’t as good as the Dodgers at showing him the Benjamins.
I haven’t followed the negotiations enough to have an informed opinion. But as a general matter once the big bucks show up things like loyalty, liking a region, needing to move your family, and everything else pretty well takes a back seat to pay, pay, pay, and potential for more pay in the future by playing with a team with better prospects for the next couple years.
IOW, IMO if I / you / we know nothing of the details of any particular transaction, bet on pay as the reason and you’ll usually be backing the winner.
Also play for the Mets, the distant second NYC team or LA, trying for the threepeat with the #2 fanbase? Seems like an easy decision. Mets feel a lot more hapless.