Munchkin Mini Mafia

The Game Room
881

The ZSofia issue really actually doesn’t resolve itself, even if we knew who the Evil character left is (although I, too, am leaning towards MHaye). If no Helm had been picked up, and a confirmed Good Cleric had ID’d the evil character, we still would be in the situation of trusting the Chaotic Good player not to pick up an item after we nuked the last evil player.

So if we don’t go with the nuclear option, which guarantees us a win (unlesswe don’t trust Zsofia), then we should just lynch her. That is, if we don’t trust her now, we’ll never really be able to trust her.

That being said, I’m still in favor of the nuclear option and trusting Z

882

I’m one connection from home where I’ll be able to give the nuclear option the thought it deserves, but to answer questions - no, Hawkeyeop returned a normal result on turn one, and no, I don’t think stealing the orb is something town wouldn’t do. Nor does it mean MHaye isn’t scum.

883

Let me see if I’ve got this straight; The nuke option is predicated on three assumptions:

  1. Zsophia is Good.

  2. The helm was stolen by an Evil person and not a Chaotic Good person trying to steal the win.

  3. There is one and only one Evil person alive.

I am not much of a gambler but if that’s the way you guys are determined to go I guess I’ll have to go along with it. I just worry that one or more of those assumptions are wrong and we could be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The assumption I am most worried about is number 3.

884

Well, one and three are the big issues. I see little issue with one: Zsofia, as an evil player, should not have claimed Chaotic, and should not have dropped her item. It just doesn’t make sense if she was looking to win.

Three is a little more difficult, but I’m relying on the way things went down in the vote for Turn Three to determine that. Go back and look at the votes for that, and imagine if there were, in fact, five Evil players at the time. If there were, and had they all voted away from Hockey Monkey, they would have won. We know evil players split their votes at that juncture, which suggests that the town wasn’t at LyLo. That means there were only four of them.

885

I wouldn’t worry about assumption 3 if we go the nuke option. We should kill everyone except the person we’ve all agreed shall survive. If there are two Evil players left (and neither of them are Zsofia), they’ll both be killed as well - assuming the plan works. It may give Team Evil some scope for shenanigans though. I want to think possibles through this evening before voting.

Assumption 2 is also not a worry, unless the stealer of the Helm was Zsofia. After all, they’ll be dead too.

It’s funny; as a D&D player of many years, if I have to trust the win to one PC, it would be the Paladin.

886

Of course, scum would never do that.

Oh that’s right I completely forgot that sachertorte has been confirmed as Good.:smack:

887

It is end of day shenanigans that worry me about two evil players. All they would have to do is pop in and unvote each other at the last minute and it’s game over.

888

Is it reasonable to ask or a Yay or Nay on the Nuclear Option by 3PM EST today, so that if we decide against it we have non-zero time to figure out something else to do?

889

I think this is a good idea, and I will have a decision by then.

Right now, to be honest, I’m really 50/50. Part of my problem with it is that I’m not sure we’ve thought through all the ways the plan could be scuttled. The other part of my problem is meta-gaming, i.e. I prefer to win the “traditional” way. I’m still mulling, and I’d like to hear from Zsofia before I decide, too.

890

God, I feel SO much better after a night in my own bed. On the other hand, my perception of the world has entirely been twisted, and I’m kind of weirded out by the fact that nobody is trying to give me free liquor before noon and that no matter how far I walk in any direction there will not be a craps table. (As is traditional, I was THIS FAR from breaking even when we had to catch our flight.)

I think my gut reaction about the Nuclear Option may really just be what ShadowFacts described - it doesn’t feel so much the “fair way” to win. (I mean, it isn’t like the “modkill win” from Simpletown, which I really would have opposed as wrong and not fair play, but it’s just… I don’t know, dissatisfying.) But if everybody wants to do it, I’m fine with that - it would indeed be nice to actually win one of these things for a change.

The only thing I can think of that would cause a major problem is the “3” option from above - if there is more than one scum player left alive, we could be handing a victory to them. I really don’t trust Boozahol’s analysis of Turn Three there - I’m not saying he’s scum, but I am saying that I think that’s kind of a tenuous method of counting them. I certainly wouldn’t rely on it. On the other hand, I don’t really have a good handle on who to chase after this turn, which is a mark in favor of the nuclear option.

I guess I’m for it if the rest of you guys are.

891

I need to think through the actions of last turn, so I’m going to do it “out loud” here. sach, I’m borrowing the list you already posted to start with.

MHaye used Orb on Hawkeyeop
Zsofia dropped Rod of Telekinesis into Hoard
ShadowFacts detected magic on Zsofia
sinjin dropped Potion of Speed, other?
sachertorte failed investigation of Zsofia
Boozahol Squid, P.I. watched Zsofia, saw Zsofia success physical with Hoard, saw sachertorte fail magic on Zsofia, saw ShadowFacts succeed magic on Zsofia
+
someone stole the Helm of Empathy from the Hoard

I agree with sach that Evil took the Helm. It’s possible that a Townie decided to randomly grab from the Hoard for some pro-Town reason, but in that case they would have spoken up and said so, and they haven’t, so…Evil it is.

OK, so what can we actually verify? We know that Zsofia claimed to have the Rod of Telekenesis and said she was fine getting rid of it. We know that it appeared in the Hoard. I think we all agree that there is no way that Zsofia could have picked up the Helm and dropped the Rod at the same time. Conclusion: Zsofia did NOT take the Helm from the Hoard. Additional circumstantial evidence: Boozahol claims to have seen her physically interact with the Hoard, which supports her claim. However, Boozahol could have made that up after the fact. Suspicion rating = Rare*.

MHaye claims to have used the Orb of Healing on Hawkeyeop. Hawk died, so there is absolutely no way to verify this claim. We don’t know how many charges the Orb had, so there is no way to dispute it, either. Conclusion: MHaye could have stolen the Helm from the pile. Additional circumstantial evidence: Mhaye’s statement that, if Detected by me, he might come up with three items due to a potential set-up by Boozahol, has a slight reek of pre-defense. sach has since shown that such a set-up is not possible. Suspicion rating = Well done.

sachertorte claims to have investigated Zsofia and failed. There is no way to verify this claim. Conclusion: sach could have stolen the Helm from the pile. Additional circumstantial evidence: Boozahol claims to have seen sach magically target Zsofia and fail. However, Boozahol posted this after sach claimed and could have made it up after the fact. Suspicion rating = Medium rare. Additional conclusion: For sach to be Evil and steal the Helm, Boozahol must also be Evil and covering for him.

ShadowFacts claims to have Detected Magic on Zsofia, finding one item (the Rod, presumably, before it went into the Hoard). There is no way to verify this claim. Conclusion: ShadowFacts could have stolen the Helm and guessed on Zsofia’s item count. Additional circumstantial evidence: Boozahol claims to have seen ShadowFacts magically target Zsofia and succeed. However, Boozahol posted this after ShadowFacts claimed and could have made it up after the fact. Suspicion rating = [up to you to decide - I would say Rare, of course]. Additional conclusion: For ShadowFacts to be Evil and steal the Helm, Boozahol must also be Evil and covering for him.

sinjin, as far as I know, has not claimed any action (sorry if I missed it). We suspect that he dropped the Potion of Speed into the Hoard. However, due to his Monk abilities as well as the Potion of Seed itself, it’s possible that he took multiple Actions. Conclusion: sinjin could have taken the Helm. Additional circumstantial evidence: None that I am aware of. Suspicion rating = Medium.

Boozahol claims to have Watched Zsofia and to have seen the following: Zsofia successfully interact with the Hoard, sach target Zsofia magically and fail, and ShadowFacts target Zsofia magically and succeed. None of this is confirmable as he did not reveal this until after sach and Shadow claimed. Conclusion: Boozahol could have stolen the Helm. Additional circumstantial evidence: None, really, but if he is Evil he did choose a particularly complicated fake claim. He easily could have claimed to have Watched just sach or Shadow, reducing the chances of getting caught in a lie. Suspicion rating = Medium.

Conclusions:
[ul]
[li]Zsofia is almost certainly not Evil.[/li][li]If sachertorte is Evil, Boozahol Squid must also be Evil (although the reverse is not true).[/li][li]If ShadowFacts is Evil, **Boozahol Squid **must also be Evil (although the reverse is not true).[/li][/ul]

Analysis:
I know I’m not Evil, and I think my investigation results as well as the fact that I am currently Cursed strongly indicate that I am not Evil. I’m leaning Town on sach as well, with the strongest evidence being his investigations of Hockey and Chucara. Zsofia I eliminated above. I’ve had a Town read on sinjin for a while, but cannot eliminate him due to the fact that his abilities and item make a Helm theft very possible. Therefore, IMO, the most likely Helm stealers (and thus Evildoers) are MHaye, followed by Boozahol and sinjin.

Note for non-meat eaters: the “doneness scale” goes: Rare, Medium Rare, Medium, Medium Well, Well Done. Now I’m hungry.

892

I mostly agree with what ShadowFacts lists here, but I would put my suspicions on MHaye and sinjin. Shadowfacts was mainly focused on this past Turn and less so on previous turns. Squid survived a curse, and I’m convinced that if Evil were to enact a Evil fake curses Evil, each of Darth, Hockey Monkey, and Chucara would be better candidates. I won’t go into the details (I did already somewhere), but I will if you want me to.

Other minor deviations: I’m not sure if I would point to MHaye’s misstatement about the number of items he might have as Evil. The framing action certainly looks like it would mess with item number investigations (and to make it a useful power for Evil it probably should [Assassin is a really messed up role this game*]) Anyway, I can see mistakenly thinking that ‘framing’ is a possibility. I certainly don’t think scum would bring it up in a bizarre form of deception.

I had been thinking about Squid’s reporting of seeing all three relevant actions regarding Zsofia. Watching is an Even chance action, so the probability of seeing all Three actions is 1/8, which is kind of small. On the other hand, a Good Squid will report what he saw, while an Evil Squid would (or at least should) know that tossing in a Fail would look more plausible.

Sinjin: I don’t know what to do about sinjin. I’ve been thinking sinjin is Town since Turn One, but I’m starting to doubt myself. In essence, I think I give people who suspect me too big of a ‘pass’ in this game. I did it with Chucara as well. But I also have a hard time thinking that both Evil sinjin and Evil Chucara would try and get me lynched on Turn One. It makes more sense that sinjin is Good, and Chucara was opportunistic.
The thing that is bugging me is that I’m not treating sinjin equally. For some reason, I’ve lowered my expectations from her. If Shadowfacts had said what sinjin said, I would have concluded EVIL long ago. Same with Storyteller. So why am I looking at sinjin’s crazy logic and giving her a pass?

The conclusions that I particularly like from ShadowFacts are:

Which I had not thought of before.

My categories
Town: Zsofia, ShadowFacts, Me
Likely Town: Squid

Zapping candidates:
MHaye, sinjin

If we go nuclear, I’m done. If we don’t go nuclear I will need to decide between MHaye and sinjin.

*Have I mentioned that I love Pleonast? He’s the bestest mod ever; at least to me.
Conspiracy I - I got the brand spankin’ new Coroner role, which was oodles of fun.
Munchkin - Uh, have you noticed that Half-Elf Clerics are way, waaayy overpowered?

893

The nuke option.

The only flaw I can see in it is if there are in fact two members of Team Evil left in the game. If that’s the case, then going nuclear could hand them the game.

Let’s suppose for the purposes of discussion that there are two Evil players.

If Boozahol, Sachertorte, Sinjin, ShadowFacts and I all vote for each other, the two members of Team Evil can unvote each other right before the deadline. I know from experience (see Conspiracy II) that it’s possible to time a post to within about 30 seconds of the Disintegration deadline. Team Evil could rehearse making posts at specific times, then spring it on us just before the deadline.

So how likely s it that there are two Evil players left?

I formed the opinion that there was only one back around the beginning of Turn 4, I think. The Turn 3 Disintegration seemed to point to less than 5 in Team Evil. I’m beginning to wonder now whether I was right, or whether I’m getting an attack of the Mafia paranoids.

We’ll see in 23 hours.

For now I’m going to reread a few pages.

894

Especially if they are both scum. Gloating much? But no one will even consider that so screw it I give up. Just for the record I’ve thought Boozy and sachertorte have been partners since Turn 1 when sacher cherry picked Boozy for his investigation list. I’ve still got my previous votes on the both of them, so:
vote MHaye
vote ShadowFacts

895

Sinjin, you’ve still got a self-vote up as well.

896

Sorry, I got stuck in a meeting that rang long, so I didn’t make the 3pm EST deadline for Nuclear voting. I’m going to vote Nay. I believe after nailing two Evil last Turn, we are not at Lynch or Lose, so it’s not necessary. I say we go about this the traditional way and try to find the last scum. If we lynch incorrectly this Turn, we (or you, since I’m Cursed and may not survive) can revisit it. After thinking through my huge post above, I think we have a good chance to figure this out.

What this means is that everyone who has any items left must use their Action this turn to drop their items into the Hoard, because if there is only one Evil remaining and we get it right, the game is over. If we get it wrong, there may also be some information available from who does/doesn’t drop items that may help us figure out who the bad guy is.

897

Sachertorte, I have a question for you (although anyone else can make the same assumptions and see what they come up with).

You were arguing early in the game that, when analysing an action, one should ask what the motivation for an Evil player taking that action would be as well as the Good motivation. With that in mind, if I am Evil and you are not, why did I not vote for you instead of (or indeed as well as) Hockey Monkey in Turn 3?

898

oops
unvote sinjin

899

I see what you are saying, but the voting record of Chucara and Darth Sensitive invalidates the point that Evil would have voted for me over Hockey Monkey. I don’t have an explanation as to why Chucara voted for Hockey Monkey instead of me, but we know that he did.

However, MHaye’s vote was the vote that pushed the vote onto Hockey Monkey instead of a tie between both of us. So from that point of view, I can see the brownie points for MHaye. However, if we assume that the game would not have ended with my death, then MHaye would have gotten heat (justified or unjustified) for the late vote. The theory is (and I do have issues with the way the Turn went down) if Evil knows the game will continue beyond my death, then avoiding exposure is more important than killing me. That’s the theory at least; personally, I think killing me off would have been a better move for Evil. They can’t curse me (at least not very effectively), and I have a 50% chance of investigating. Also, it should have been clear that had I lived, I was going to investigate Chucara. There was no one else on my list. So I can see giving MHaye some credit for the Hockey Monkey kill.
The problem is, this can only be a weak conclusion. Chucara voted to keep me alive as well, and we know Chucara was Evil.

I get what MHaye is trying to say, and if he Turns up Good, he deserves kudos for a good call. But that’s only if he is Good, which I don’t know yet. If he is Evil, I can see him voting for Hockey Monkey for future benefits and staying out of the spotlight.

So I neither hold the Turn 3 vote for MHaye nor against him. That is I can see Evil doing what MHaye did, and I can see Good doing what MHaye did.

900

Yeah. Oh my. It’s such a short post, yet there is so much wrong here.

  1. Yes, I’m gloating. Duh, I exposed two Evil. ShadowFacts uncovered one. We’re pretty damn sure there is only one left. Good started out horribly and turned the game around. Good is Gloating. Evil is in no position to gloat. However, one could say that Evil is in the position to complain about my gloating.

  2. I explained at the time why I wanted Squid on my list. If you objected, you should have objected then. No one else had a problem with it. Why do you? Further, you are accusing me of Evilness for cherry-picking Squid away from Evil Chucara. In what universe does this make sense?

  3. Sinjin is giving up. Why? Good is winning! She should be happy, but she clearly is not. We just zapped two Evil in one Turn, and sinjin is terse, mad at me, off the mark logically, and giving up. Compare this to Shadowfacts who is thinking through the situation, drawing conclusions and trying to figure out who the last Evil is.

If we don’t go Nuclear, can we zap sinjin? Pretty please? Sugar on top and everything.