Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

[gnarlycharlie]

@Scuba_Ben

Responding to BM responding to Drain Bead, just in case it got missed.

I have been told to submit two targets Tonight. I have inferred that I got a power boost. I won’t know until Tomorrow.

I think the best way to assess my inference is for whoever targeted me, target someone they consider reliable. Let’s see if anybody gets extra targets for the following Night.

Given everything that’s going on with investigations, I think the only thing we can conclude is that there are many crazy roles in this game.

AOP @ Normal Phase. If I’ve followed this correctly, gnarly targeted TexCat. Please don’t consider my memory reliable.

AOP2 @ peeker: I’m learning fast that in this game messages are currently of unknown reliability.

It would be nice to lynch someone who would give us the most information about the game setup. But failing that we have to return to analysis of who seems Scummiest given the game so far.

so you were asked to submit two targets as well? Jan did too. does this mean some roles might be redirectors or bus drivers?

[NAF1138]

@Blaster_Master

And I see I get yet another lazy vote. I like how you list all the other people involved with this mess of claims and yet apparently Giraffe got a read on me and I’m still fair game? I’d really like to see your posts because I think I have 3 votes now, one for what was a misunderstanding of a Night post, one that was just straight up lazy, and now one for not playing good. :rolleyes:

Not not playing good, but playing…weird? I don’t know. It’s a gut call, and honestly I like my gut call against Ed better than you but he doesn’t have any votes on him and you do.

Sucks for you. Give me an hour and I will post more reasons but yours was one of the few names I consistently wrote down when playing catchup yesterday as posting something innocuously scummy. Of course I didn’t write down what posts those were :smack: so now I have to go and find them again.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Dancecat

Silver Jan is probably an insane cop, and/or the wolves have a mason, and/or the wolves have a message sender. Impossible is nothing. I want to proceed as normal and lynch the wolfiest player.

I love how my Dethy theory is getting crapped all over, but then we have a dozen folks who believe that the detectives are giving you false results.

NAW NAW, YOU SEE, THESE DETECTIVE RESULTS ARE WRONG SOMEHOW. LIKE AN INSANE COP.

Me: Could be a Dethy setup. 5 detectives and stuff. One could be an insane cop.

NO HOW PREPOSTEROUS!!!

[TexCat]

My review of Inner: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14164642&postcount=1475
My look at the TexCat voters: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14163046&postcount=1412
My look at the timeline of voting yesterDay: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14169422&postcount=1730
Vote: Inner Stickler

[TexCat]

@gnarlycharlie

so you were asked to submit two targets as well? Jan did too. does this mean some roles might be redirectors or bus drivers?

No. If you submit your night actions ahead of time, you need to submit 2 names in case your first choice dies.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You guys are either really lucky or really unlucky that I have to head to work now, otherwise I would be doing this for the next 6 hours.

*** PLEASE PUT THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF SCUMMY TO LEAST SCUMMY***:

[ul]
[li] Dancecat[/li][li] Blaster Master[/li][li] Silver Jan[/li][li] TexCat[/li][li] Gnarlycharlie[/li][/ul]

And do it before the lynch, for the love of crumbs. Look, this is important stuff that you’re going to want to look at later, guys. Seriously. Do it pleeeeeeeeeeeease!

[peekercpa]

@Scuba_Ben

Scum masons are not unheard of.

<snippped>

jeeebuz.

scum are masons jut on the dark side ffs.

[Blaster_Master]

@Askthepizzaguy

In a game of all night action roles, You are going to get the full gamut of “detective” roles.

[ul]
[li] That means you’ll have normal cops. Naive cops. Insane cops. Paranoid cops.[/li][/ul]

I have to say I think the full gamut of cops, combined with messages going to seemingly random people, in a game with mystery abilities adds too much complexity to the game to make it possible to figure out what’s going on. It’s a little meta-gamey, but I don’t think they’d make it that complex. Instead, I simply think that some of the messages are scum generated and/or straight up lies.

3. The scumbags are going to have the ability to send people fake results.

[ul]
[li]Think about it. How many people claim to have gotten results that dropped in out of frakking thin air? Where does that come from? 5 redirectors? How about scums sending out fake results.[/li][/ul]
4) You gotta figure 5-6 scumbags at the very least right about now, to counter all these roles.

This I agree with, which is why I think it’s unlikely that we have so many different cops. If we have all of that along with additional noise thrown in by the scum, we might as well just straight up ignore the messages until we have a way of linking them and determining which ones might be accurate. Besides, Occam’s Razor, some pro-town messages and some scum ones is simpler.

[Normal_Phase]

OK, skimming back over the last few pages again I have a short list for the lynch:

DanceCat
Blastermaster

These two on Pizza’s Dethy theory, which I find intriguing. DanceCat higher than Blaster pending NAF’s promised case.

Brewha

For the vote on Jan.

PCM
Inner Stickler

For their votes on gnarlycharlie. (For these two maybe PCM a notch above Inner because Inner is Inner.)

The one that pinged me the most is brewha, but I’ll vote for any of them.
unvote
vote: brewha

Giraffe needs review for day two participation, of which I have thus far read zero (though there must be some since his name just came up).

Brewha’s post:

@brewha

Alright, after getting caught up (AGAIN!), I see that SilverJan’s role may not be as important as I thought. I originally feared that she may be the one and only seer (I now realize that that is silly considering the scope of the game) and that lynching her my be very detrimental to the town.

But, it seems the more likely situation is that she is one of several cops in varying states of mental coherence. So, the only way to know for sure is to start lynching cops, I guess. I just don’t like that option. If Silverjan is an insane cop, she’s still very useful.

But, if she’s a naive or paranoid cop - her reads mean nothing.

I guess the only way we’re going to sort this mess is to lynch one of the parties and go from there based on role and alignment.

[color=blue]Vote SilverJan

This is a terrible vote. It completely dodges responsibility for whether or not SilverJan is actually scum, rationalizing her lynch purely on the basis of informational gain that is not all that certain anyway and could actively be detrimental to town if the Dethy theory is true and Silver Jan is insane (that’s the reverse one, right)?

At that, I’m not even sure that Silver Jan is the cop herself (see comment above not getting how this works), but brewha’s vote assumes that she is.

On preview: NAF, I’d like to see the Ed case too even if he’s not getting lynched today.

[Blaster_Master]

@Askthepizzaguy

*** PLEASE PUT THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF SCUMMY TO LEAST SCUMMY***:

[ul]
[li] Dancecat[/li][li] Blaster Master[/li][li] Silver Jan[/li][li] TexCat[/li][li] Gnarlycharlie[/li][/ul]

I just saw this from posting, so… I’ll bite.

Silver Jan
TexCat
Gnarlycharlie
Dancecat
Blaster Master
That’s conditional on the fact that I’m still a few hundred posts behind so I haven’t seen all of the developments.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Blaster_Master

I have to say I think the full gamut of cops, combined with messages going to seemingly random people, in a game with mystery abilities adds too much complexity to the game to make it possible to figure out what’s going on. It’s a little meta-gamey, but I don’t think they’d make it that complex. Instead, I simply think that some of the messages are scum generated and/or straight up lies.

You can figure out what’s going on. The thing is, if you don’t bother to solve it with your brain, it will get solved for you via deaths of the players involved.

You will learn the setup, and you’ll figure out why you were mislead for half the game, but it will happen halfway through the game.

OR, you could do the thing where you anticipate the 5 different cop setup and test the theory ASAP, figure out that is what it is, or it isn’t what it is, and have a far superior game from then onward.

And yes, at least one of those cops is sending you lies. That’s the idea. Two more of them don’t know what the hell they’re talking about. Only 2 of those detectives even matter. However, the paranoid and naive cops can figure out that’s what they are, out themselves, die, and prove the Dethy theory correct.

This I agree with, which is why I think it’s unlikely that we have so many different cops. If we have all of that along with additional noise thrown in by the scum, we might as well just straight up ignore the messages until we have a way of linking them and determining which ones might be accurate. Besides, Occam’s Razor, some pro-town messages and some scum ones is simpler.

Occam’s Razor doesn’t apply when you’re talking about a game setup.

Occam’s Razor suggests that there isn’t 7 jester roles in a game. However, a game host could put 7 jester roles in a game.

Occam’s Razor also suggests a Dethy setup is the case when the following happens:
[ul]
[li]Gnarly flips townie[/li][li]One of the “innocents” flips scum.[/li][/ul]

Careful bout that Occam’s Razor stuff. It’s one of the most consistently misapplied things in mafia, right after WIFOM.

[peekercpa]

@Askthepizzaguy

You guys are either really lucky or really unlucky that I have to head to work now, otherwise I would be doing this for the next 6 hours.

*** PLEASE PUT THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF SCUMMY TO LEAST SCUMMY***:

[ul]
[li] Dancecat[/li][li] Blaster Master[/li][li] Silver Jan[/li][li] TexCat[/li][li] Gnarlycharlie[/li][/ul]

And do it before the lynch, for the love of crumbs. Look, this is important stuff that you’re going to want to look at later, guys. Seriously. Do it pleeeeeeeeeeeease!

that’s so footwear that involves penis and vagina interaction that i can’t even comment. donuts.

[peekercpa]

unless gad will let me play. at which point eye would be happy to respond.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But I am guessing the folks are going to have to lynch gnarly to see it for themselves.

And hey, I just finished defending a scumbag in other games which shall remain forgotten, so I’d really love it if I didn’t defend gnarly all damned day and have him flip scum. So I don’t care what you do with gnarlycharlie.

Just remember what I said if he flips townie. You start hacking apart those “innocent” claims until you find the scum within. If you forget, I’ll eat you guys through the series of tubes.

[Scuba_Ben]

@gnarlycharlie

so you were asked to submit two targets as well? Jan did too. does this mean some roles might be redirectors or bus drivers?

As I understand it, Jan was asked to submit a backup target, as she put in her Night action during the Day.

I have been asked to submit two targets. I have no indication that the second is a backup target. I infer that whatever my action is, it will happen to both targets.

@Askthepizzaguy

I love how my Dethy theory is getting crapped all over, but then we have a dozen folks who believe that the detectives are giving you false results.

NAW NAW, YOU SEE, THESE DETECTIVE RESULTS ARE WRONG SOMEHOW. LIKE AN INSANE COP.

I presently conclude that messages received during the Night cannot be considered reliable. Reports of those messages, on the other hand, CAN be evaluated for reliability. That is, my honesty in reporting the message I received can be evaluated independently of the veracity of the message itself.

Especially given the conflict between Jan’s and TexCat’s messages about gnarlycharlie, there exists some mechanism for inaccurate messages.

So someone flipping Town would validate their report on another person but not necessarily the veracity of the message; someone flipping Scum would invalidate messages about them, but not necessarily invalidate the report of that message. Bah.

AOP @ PizzaGuy: I think you need to sharpen your razor. Occam’s Razor does NOT suggest that there are not 7 Jester roles in a game. It says to not assume 7 Jester roles until all simpler explanations of the given facts have been disproven by either logic, testing, or more facts.

[peekercpa]

@Askthepizzaguy

**Careful bout that Occam’s Razor stuff. It’s one of the most consistently misapplied things in mafia, right after WIFOM.

<snipfrped> really. eye mean serilously? lynch giraffe tpoDay and then we circle around manan.

[Normal_Phase]

OK someone tell me where the unholy name of Jester was first invoked, so I can smite.

Oh, it was Pizza.

*smites.

[NAF1138]

@Askthepizzaguy

You guys are either really lucky or really unlucky that I have to head to work now, otherwise I would be doing this for the next 6 hours.

*** PLEASE PUT THE FOLLOWING CANDIDATES IN ORDER OF SCUMMY TO LEAST SCUMMY***:

[ul]
[li] Dancecat[/li][li] Blaster Master[/li][li] Silver Jan[/li][li] TexCat[/li][li] Gnarlycharlie[/li][/ul]

And do it before the lynch, for the love of crumbs. Look, this is important stuff that you’re going to want to look at later, guys. Seriously. Do it pleeeeeeeeeeeease!

Sure

[ul]
[li] Blaster Master[/li][li]Lots and lots and lots and lots of space[*] Dancecat[/li][li] Silver Jan[/li][li] Gnarlycharlie[/li][li] TexCat[/li]
[/ul]

[Gadarene]

MODERATOR NOTE

There are no jesters in the game, donuts. And to repeat what I said last page, because 'tis important for everyone’s sanity and enjoyment: please assume that the rules of this game have been carefully designed to be fair and internally consistent for most values of both terms.

[Blaster_Master]

@Askthepizzaguy

Oh, and by the way, since having the 4 different “sanities” for Cops will make all results confusing, this is what has to happen:

You don’t lynch any claimed cops.
The cops shush and gather at least 3-4 more results before claiming.
The cops mass claim.
As the cops die, you figure out which ones were sane and insane and naive and paranoid.

Then, the results begin to matter.

However, I may reverse this and suggest you lynch gnarlycharlie anyway, because if he pops town, then I fully expect you have the paranoid or insane cop who scanned gnarly.
[ul]
[li]The paranoid cop is useless, it will always get guilty results. Losing the paranoid cop loses us nothing.[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]The insane cop is as useful as the sane cop, because it gets 100% inaccurate results. Flip them and they become accurate.[/li][/ul]

If gnarly flips scum, then good, that’s 2 down. But I sincerely, sincerely doubt it. The odds are against it.

The only way this is true is if the SANE COP happened to hit a guilty party last night. The odds are WAY WAY WAY against that. It’s possible, yeah.

But the INSANE COP is almost 90% likelihood of getting a guilty result.

And the PARANOID COP has a 100% likelihood of getting a guilty result.

So, understand that gnarly could be guilty, but the odds say he’s probably innocent.

But, the problem is, I don’t think any of our message bearers have claimed cop, they’ve all claimed to have received the message in addition to their Night action. Due to this, IF there are paranoid cops or naive cops or whatever, without knowing who targetted who and when and taking into account redirects as they may occur, it will be difficult or impossible to make any meaningful distinction. This is why I’m more inclined to believe we have at least 2-3 town investigators and their messages go out in a yet undetermined way, assuming that the one that Weedy got also gets role information, and the rest are either generated by scum and may or may not be true, or may have been given to scum and they lied about the message they received, or the scum may have gotten nothing but lied about receiving one and the message to create more disinformation.

Regardless, at this point, I think all of these messages are interesting data points, but certainly not worth lynching a claimed mason on. I’ll reconsider my actual vote once I fully catch up.

unvote Gnarlycharlie