obviously, but you shouldn’t assume they will do it until they do, and in my experience that just isn’t the case
to the last part
Naf made the case on inner but ended up voting blaster master if i remember correctly?
i thought he was a little wolfy but he resonded well to questioning
don’t remember much about episkey
were there any kills during the day in previous days?
I’m definitely willing to lynch Episkey. Sign me up.
Vote Episkey.
For my earlier case on him plus a claim of wolf by Askthepizzaguy. It’s possible the whisper could be wrong, so I’m sorry if you flip townie. As I said yesterday regarding gnarly, I’d rather find out the old-fashioned way than worry about it day after day.
No.
What does the one have to do with the other? Is your information somehow dependent on our suspects?
I would prefer you just poison UTRs probably
we have to resolve them somehow
so we have this and the two new whispers of wolves and pizza claiming poisoner
any claims i’m missing?
Is there a particular reason why you’re going on about how to play ‘Vanilla + *n *Vigilante’ games at this point? Because, you know, this game is pretty much exactly the opposite of that.
Roughly speaking, I posted an analysis of the timing of votes in the Day One lynch. Mahaloth’s few posts came in a flurry with an unsupported vote on Krayz right as Silver Jan started drawing attention, and as I’ve said, my scumfinding method relies on vote timing of known scum.
I am still working on integrating Day Two and BLAM’s scumminess into my spreadsheet. This game is retardedly fast and it makes it difficult to keep up.
episkey- wolf result
NAF- wolf result
pwnsall- town result
I believe pwnsall is actually town, that’s certainly possible. Which would mean the results on pwnsall are (IMO) **Sane **or Naive. If the sane cop is already used up, that means there is either no read (Paranoid) or a false read (Insane) on Episkey and NAF.
Now, we know for a fact that the results on Episkey and NAF are NOT naive, and we know that the results on pwnsall are NOT paranoid.
So, if someone has been hitting nothing but townies so far and they inspected pwnsall last night, that means you are either **sane **or naive. If you ever get a guilty result, then assume you’re **sane **(random cops are bastard mod roles worse than naive or paranoid). If you’ve inspected people and gotten a guilty result, you are very, very likely to be sane, which means you should consider revealing at some point soon, because your data is the most useful.
If the Sane cop is already being used against pwnsall, that means the scanners on NAF and Episkey are either paranoid (useless) or insane (useful).
Now, since there are two guilty results, and I DO NOT believe that there are TWO paranoid cops, especially since last round we got 4 innocents and a guilty, that means:
**The result on one of these two, NAF and Episkey, must be either sane or insane ONLY.
Which means that one is a null-tell, but the other has been proven innocent, if the detective who scanned pwnsall is in fact sane, most likely, or proven guilty, if the detective who scanned pwnsall is in fact naive.
Since two of the results from yesterday came from folks who are now dead, the scum crier and the town crier, that means in my view these three results are the only ones we’re going to get.
That means we do not have sane, insane, naive, and paranoid, we can only have 3 out of 4. Or, the results have been going to an inactive person or a scumbag who is refusing to reveal. The scums would not get paranoid or naive results, because that’s useless to them, and I do not believe the moderator is such a bastard that he would feed the scumbags actually 100% useless information. That honor is usually bestowed upon townies.
That means the scumbags either have the sane results or the insane results. Thing is, we know that the townies are probably getting the insane results, just because the townies are also getting sane results from a cop and a dead crier.
So assume the townies have an insane cop whisperer.
The results on pwnsall most likely are not insane/backward because there are two other guilty results, which means that would require a paranoid and a sane cop getting a guilty result, and for the insane cop to get an innocent result is less likely, since there are more townies, so they get more guilty results on average.
Yesterday results:
“Idle got Dancecat as Town” (TOWN CRIER SANE- DEAD)
“Giraffe got Blaster as Town” (WOLF CRIER INSANE- DEAD)
Scuba got Silver Jan as Town (Sane, Insane, Naive) Cannot be paranoid.
Weedy got Texcat as Town/Mason (Sane, Insane) Naive/Role scanner possible. Gets roles but reads alignment as always townie. Cannot be paranoid.
Silver Jan got gnarlycharlie as Wolf (Sane, Insane, Paranoid) Cannot be naive.
If result on Silver Jan is sane, she’s townie, if result is insane, she’s guilty.
If result on TexCat is sane, she’s townie, if result is insane, she’s guilty.
If result on gnarlycharlie is sane, he’s guilty, if result is insane, he’s innocent. If result is sane or insane, THERE IS NO PARANOID COP. Assume this is the paranoid result, then.
“pwnsall as town” = Naive (Likely)/Sane (Mid)/Insane (Very low)
“NAF as wolf” = Paranoid or Insane (Likely)/Sane (Low) [Almost sure one of these is paranoid]
“Episkey as wolf” = Paranoid or Insane (Likely)/Sane (Low) [Almost sure one of these is paranoid]
And the possible permutations if one of each:
Scenario 1: Pwnsall result was Sane.
Pwnsall/Town = Sane
NAF/Wolf = Paranoid/Insane
Episkey/Wolf = Paranoid/Insane
Proves **pwnsall **and one of **Naf **or **Episkey **as being both innocent, and that the result on the other is a NULL TELL.
Advice here is to not lynch any.
Scenario 2: Pwnsall result was Naive.
Pwnsall/Town = Naive
NAF/Wolf = Paranoid/Insane/Sane
Episkey/Wolf = Paranoid/Insane/Sane
Proves nothing about pwnsall (Null tell) and I would suggest that paranoid cop becomes more likely since there’s a Naive cop as well. That means that we have to figure out which result is which.
The paranoid result will mean nothing, but we can deduce once we figure out who is paranoid that the result on the other of Naf/Episkey are sane or insane. And, the death of folks will prove the results were sane or insane, allowing the detective enough information to expose themselves and declare Naf or Episkey guilty.
If you figure out which result was paranoid, lynch that one, and that will declare to the other cop that they are sane or insane.
Scenario 3: Pwnsall result was Insane.
Pwnsall/Town = Insane
NAF/Wolf = Paranoid/Sane
Episkey/Wolf = Paranoid/Sane
Under this very unlikely scenario, that means there are two known wolves between NAF and Episkey.** Advice here would be to lynch 2 of them, a third if you only hit one wolf.**
[ul]
[li]As a result, I conclude that the **pwnsall **result was highly likely Sane or Naive, not insane.[/li][/ul]
As a result, pwnsall becomes a bad lynch unless proven otherwise by a more reliable source.
And that means that the lynches on NAF and Episkey are ALSO bad bets unless we get more data.
[ul]
[li]Scenario 1 is the most likely outcome. No wolves have been caught.[/li][li]Scenario 2 bags you 1 wolf only, and you should wait to determine which one. You can deduce it as soon as you figure out which result was paranoid.[/li][li]Scenario 3 is** extremely unlikely** and bags you two wolves.[/li][/ul]
Recommend no lynch on Episkey, NAF, and pwnsall for now. Do not trust these results.
Recommend against lynching Episkey. I think this is a bad vote.
Vote: Astral Rejection.
To make my point.
No, that’s not true.
The opposite of vanilla is not role. Most “roles” are barely functional at all, and cause no real impact on the game, such as folks who cannot figure out what they are or use their tools effectively while they live, and then they die.
Until the role can prove its worth and actually positively affect change in the town’s favor, it is as useful as a vanilla role or worse.
Case in point- roles which give you bad data. If gnarly is innocent, we nearly lynched him based off of bad info.
Case in point- Backup vigilante killing our cop.
Case in point- Me if Brewha is innocent.
I think this is a worse vote. Do you think I’m scum, or is this a stunt?
I don’t trust you, this is an instinct-based vote.
I am now going to look through your contributions to the game and render my own personal opinion as to whether my vote on you stays.
I don’t trust how you’re basically opposing everything I do, and arguing the opposite of everything I argue.
Incidentally, how do you ever intend on solving the claims issue without ever acting on one of them?
Correction: Only one likely wolf between Naf and Episkey, and pwnsall is guilty under that extremely unlikely scenario.
Pwnsall should know whether this is not possible because it rules him guilty.
I rule it only very remotely likely and generally discard it.
I thought I was just a whisper, those don’t seem to be like investigations
Ever? Ever is a long time, Astral.
Prudent delay is warranted to gather more data. I never said let them go forever.
Are the scumbags going to leave them alive to the endgame? I dare them to try.
Meanwhile, we have ways of verifying these results, having at least one useful cop among the three, if not two.
Lynching them is very unwise. We deduce they are guilty with more results, or force murders to happen on them, or have a townie voting bloc. Any of those is better than lynching them immediately, even if they’re guilty, because the cops need to deduce if they’re sane, insane, paranoid, or naive.
meaning i think we should separate people who got whispers unrelated to their night action and people who get results from a night actions saying whatever, because it was quite confusing to me yesterday when I was trying to catch up
I’m actually really confused why there are so many whispers and wtf they are
also on rereading inner light it seemed likely he peeked dancecat and got full role back, his post guessing exactly what dances role was seems amazing otherwise