Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

[DuckburgDK]

@TexCat

I think we clearly have more than 3 cops still alive, since one of the results from N1 had role and alignment and none today did. But it could be that we have other town criers or other odd messengers still alive.

Inner’s role said he was a “beat cop”, but didn’t say anything about his sanity. Wouldn’t his sanity be listed in his reveal if this is a dethy setup?

Imo his sanity would be revealed.

@sangaman

Ughhhh what a dumb mistake by me. I wish I could say I was good enough to be aware of the game’s set-up and not mess up like I did by saying there are 9 wolves. I didn’t understand what was going on at first when people were questioning my post. I could have sworn the OP said there were 9 wolves but apparently I was wrong. I am used to 1/4 of the players (37 in this case) being wolves, and just assumed that was incontrovertibly the case in this game which evidently was a mistake.

I understand it looks terrible and could cut my game short but I still want to try to help win this game for the village. I don’t know what else to say, but I’m not scum and I’ll try to get a wolf lynched today.

Okay - this is weird.
Someone explain the deeper history.

@Weedy

I have heard 25%, or the square root of the number of players, which would be 6.

Sangaman’s statement is only PIS if there are in fact 9 wolves. That seems like a lot to me. Can anyone with more experience in balancing games comment on this?

PIS?
You have to take into account that in a normal game, the wolves would know their role and what their abilities.
In this setup they’re working in the dark, just like us, which is why there would be more wolf than normally.

[Suburban_Plankton]

Can someone please link to Idle’s breadcrumb of Dancecat being town? People keep talking about it, but I don’t recall seeing it anywhere, and I’m off to work just at the moment.

[NAF1138]

@DuckburgDK

PIS?

Perfect information syndrome. The sickness of scummy folk showing that they know more about the game state than any townie folk could know at that point.

Like knowing how many wolves there are at the game start. That isn’t usually the best example of it. The PIS slips that are most solid are usually the more subtle things, like indicating that you *know *a player is town when there is nothing in evidence to give you that belief. But like all things it tends to get reduced to the easiest thing to see, and scum have been caught giving away the number of their team before. Sadly, town have made the same (somewhat incomprehensible) blunder.

[DuckburgDK]

So I can make the assumption that PIS is the same as TMI?

Too much information - which has the same explanation you just posted.

[Weedy]

PIS=TMI, yeah.

@Suburban_Plankton

Can someone please link to Idle’s breadcrumb of Dancecat being town? People keep talking about it, but I don’t recall seeing it anywhere, and I’m off to work just at the moment.

Inner Stickler breadcrumbed Dancecat. Lightfoot’s quote of it is on the page before this one. Idle claimed he got a message about her in post 1097

[NAF1138]

Dammit, I just closed the tab on a long post I was writing when I meant to close the tab on the research pages I had open. I hate myself a little bit right now.

To sum up the lost post:

I like the case against Astral.
Could I get summaries of the case against Brewha and Scuba Ben please?

Players I believe to be town for one reason or another:

AskThePizzaGuy was PetW
DonkTimesFour was sachertorte
Giraffe
gnarlycharlie
Idle Thoughts
lilflower
NAF1138
Normal Phase
TexCat

Many of the reasons are crap meta reasons like lilflower who I believe I am able to read fairly well, same with Giraffe and Idle. Normal Phase is on the list because she pushed the BlaM lynch after I had given it up as a lost cause. Pizzaguy, is just a feeling. Sach now Donk, is on the list for meta reasons + BlaM votes. Gnarly and TexCat are probably masons. I don’t expect anyone to follow me on this list but if and when I die (and I don’t know my role yet so none of this is breadcrumbs) I hope someone takes some of this into account in some small way.

Leaning possibly scum for now:
Astral Rejection
LightFoot
sangaman was Meeko
Scathach
Special Ed

Some crap meta reasoning going on in this list (see Ed, who’s posting continues to feel wrong, but I can’t build a case on that). Some like LightFoot, I don’t remember why I had marked as scum, but they are on that list.

Neutral for now:
brewha
bufftabby
crackedquads
Drain Bead
MykBot (was kinda sorta on my town list but with no participation yesterDay has to fall back to neutral. Just too hard to hold a read).
Precambrianmollusc
pwnsall was TimeLady
Scuba_Ben
septimus
Silver Jan
SisterCoyote
Suburban Plankton
Weedy was Hirka T’Bawa
Zeriel

Don’t know what to do with:
Episkey - Would have been on my town list before PizzaGuy’s reveal. Not sure what to do now. I need to rethink the odds of multiple bad readings.

Ok that’s all for this post. One more and then I will be gone for a bit.

[NAF1138]

The listings in my last post are like 80% for me so I have my thoughts down in one place. 10% for transparency, and like 10% for bragging if I turn out to be close to right.

I think I may have figured out my role. I don’t know, but I think. Before I go further, did anyone receive a whisper Day 1 after Night 0? I think they did, but I don’t actually remember.

[TexCat]

Welcome Duck. Phew subbing in after 3100 posts? Good luck with that!

[lilflower]

@Scathach

You said you didn’t like the BlaM lynch, but unvoted when you realised you had a 50/50 chance of saving him? (i.e. in a tie, correct me if I’m wrong, the lynch is chosen randomly between the two candidates) You specifically said you didn’t like the case against BlaM, but then deliberately let him be lynched?

I didn’t look at it as a “50/50 chance of saving him.” I looked at it as a “random choice between two lynch candidates” and I don’t like letting the lynch being chosen randomly. I did not like the case against **BlaM **but as I told Giraffe, I would rather have a mislynch with a clear voting record rather than leaving something to chance.

It seems to me (and others can correct me if I’m wrong) that the tie-breaking rules create a really good way for scum to hide their votes. They know if the lynchees in the tie are all town or not so I would think that they would be perfectly happy letting a bunch of townies end up in a tie at the end of the Day. They don’t care who gets lynched, as long as it’s town. And then everyone can say “well I didn’t even vote for that player - they were chosen randomly.” So I feel like a tie is anti-town.

[pwnsall]

@DuckburgDK

So I can make the assumption that PIS is the same as TMI?

Too much information - which has the same explanation you just posted.

sanga made a post definitively saying there were 9 wolves yesterday

I quoted it somewhere on the last couple pages for cracked and bolded the relevant part

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14180711&postcount=3032

[DuckburgDK]

@TexCat

Welcome Duck. Phew subbing in after 3100 posts? Good luck with that!

Not a problem - I’m not going to reread unless there’s a really good reason.
And I’m only going to reread what i feel necessary.
Btw - I’m from Euroland - so I’m only here during work hours - thank God for a slow game.

[DuckburgDK]

I don’t expect him to make up numbers - especially not when he’s on a different board than he’s used to.

So either a) He get some information every night about some game mechanics or b) he’s a wolf and made a slip.

What do you think?
I know which one I find more likely.

[TexCat]

@sangaman

I just read some of the posts from tonight about my slip. I’d like to respond to one in particular:

The reason I thought it was 9 was because I’ve only ever played WW on the 2p2 forum where the standard format for games is to always have wolves be 25% of the player pool, rounded down. 9/11 players is 2 wolves, 13/15 players is 3 wolves, 17/19 is 4 wolves, etc… I’ve only played games that follow this structure, and the closest thing to a mishmash I’ve played also followed this (21 players, 5 wolves, 1 jester, power roles on either side balancing each other). I’ve also never played any games where the # of wolves in the game was not common knowledge. Now that I’ve consciously thought about it, I guess there could be any number of wolves here since this game is on a different board and has a lot of uncommon rules, although I’d still be surprised if the number of starting wolves is far off of 9.

This is the structure I am referring to:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=4847617&postcount=2

FWIW I never saw the 6-9 post. I didn’t sub in till late in day 1 and was at my aunt’s beach house in NJ all weekend, so I skimmed over some parts of the thread. I was hoping to be more active starting d3, but I obviously didn’t get off on the right foot. I realized that I’d made that slip late this evening and saw some of the reactions it received, but didn’t post for a few hours because I was too embarrassed. It’s a blatantly bad mistake for me to make and I will just have to learn from it.

I’ll be online tomorrow afternoon.

This is a reasonable explanation of the slip. What I don’t like about it is my underlining. I don’t like that you wait for hours before posting. Time to confer with scum buddies? Time to research Romanic’s non-slip of the same thing?

I have to agree with Suburban though, what I really don’t like is your voting record. You let Meeko take credit for his Krayz vote. And no vote at all from you Day two?? I take a very dim view of not voting, especially from someone who was in the thread and posting opinions before the deadline:

@sangaman

I think blaster made a good defense of himself. Kinda want to vote precambrian but that’s not happening. Don’t want to vote any of the potential masons or silver jan. Have to read about inner stickler fast.

[NAF1138]

I don’t like that in that post you quoted, TexCat, he both offers and explanation and concedes it is a slip.

It is either a slip or it is reasonable. It’s not both.

[NAF1138]

NETA: my meaning in the last post is that he clearly is thinking of it as a slip. If it was an honest mistake he wouldn’t be thinking about it that way.

[TexCat]

@lilflower

I didn’t look at it as a “50/50 chance of saving him.” I looked at it as a “random choice between two lynch candidates” and I don’t like letting the lynch being chosen randomly. I did not like the case against **BlaM **but as I told Giraffe, I would rather have a mislynch with a clear voting record rather than leaving something to chance.

It seems to me (and others can correct me if I’m wrong) that the tie-breaking rules create a really good way for scum to hide their votes. They know if the lynchees in the tie are all town or not so I would think that they would be perfectly happy letting a bunch of townies end up in a tie at the end of the Day. They don’t care who gets lynched, as long as it’s town. And then everyone can say “well I didn’t even vote for that player - they were chosen randomly.” So I feel like a tie is anti-town.

The voting record is clear even in a tie. And having a random lynch of the tied players is not all that bad for town. (Unlike some other games we’ve had recently.)

What does muddy the voting record is voting for people for bad reasons just to avoid the tie. It’s just an additional excuse that scum can use for a bad vote.

[Scuba_Ben]

I’m only up to 3100.

@Askthepizzaguy

[ul]
[li][]If your action was on gnarlycharlie 2 nights ago, *and *last night you targeted one of the players I am going to reveal this round, then you are either an EXTREMELY lucky sane cop (doubtful), an unfortunately useless paranoid cop, or you are an insane cop (As useful as a sane cop) that has cleared two townies as being innocent, but reading guilty.[][/li][/ul]

I targeted gnarlycharlie N1, and once I saw ATPG’s list I confirm I did not target either Episkey or NAF. I conclude with utmost certainty that I am not an investigator. This corroborates Yesterday’s post (I’m not sure who said it) watching gnarlycharlie and seeing that he was targeted by a non-investigator.

@septimus

I was told that I felt a warm glow on Night 1. (I relayed this poorly due to fear of violating the don’t-post-PM rule.)

You and bufftabby have felt warm glows. I am suspecting a Whore role, if we want to trust the color. As I understand it, a Whore is normally a Scum Roleblocker. Septimus and bufftabby, did either of you get any indication whether your actions succeeded/failed/were blocked on the Night you felt the warm glow?

@special_ed

So we’ve completely discounted that the poisoner might be Scum?

I have not. I think a Poisoner role would be normally anti Town. That is not necessarily so in this game.

@pwnsall

all the people who claimed investigations yesterday should obviously claim again today

Yesterday I claimed receipt of a message with Jan’s alignment. I received no alignment messages Today.

@Askthepizzaguy

Well, we do know from the deaths yesterday and last night that 2 of our results weren’t even from cops, they were from crier roles.

We also know by deduction that the other 3 results are NOT from crier roles.

I did my own analysis, and reached the same conclusion. Gnarly, TexCat, and Jan are not crier roles. Also, gnarly and TexCat have claimed mason, supported by Weedy’s message from N1. (obvious repetition of info is obviously repetition)

@TexCat

I think we clearly have more than 3 cops still alive, since one of the results from N1 had role and alignment and none today did. But it could be that we have other town criers or other odd messengers still alive.

Inner’s role said he was a “beat cop”, but didn’t say anything about his sanity. Wouldn’t his sanity be listed in his reveal if this is a dethy setup?

It seems to me that if an investigator is not disclosed as non-sane, we should assume them to be sane.

And it’s possible the additional message Today, had gotten blocked on N1.

@sangaman

Ughhhh what a dumb mistake by me. I wish I could say I was good enough to be aware of the game’s set-up and not mess up like I did by saying there are 9 wolves. I didn’t understand what was going on at first when people were questioning my post. I could have sworn the OP said there were 9 wolves but apparently I was wrong. I am used to 1/4 of the players (37 in this case) being wolves, and just assumed that was incontrovertibly the case in this game which evidently was a mistake.

I understand it looks terrible and could cut my game short but I still want to try to help win this game for the village. I don’t know what else to say, but I’m not scum and I’ll try to get a wolf lynched today.

Bad assumption, and bad skimming of the rules in the OP. Please make a good case on someone.

@Askthepizzaguy

What were the circumstances? (Rhetorical question, but I honestly don’t recall)

1. Was this pushed by Blaster Master while neither Scuba nor Blaster was under threat of death?
2. When did Blaster Master push hardest on this case?
3. Was there a realistic chance Scuba died from his case and vote?

If so, then it’s either very convincing bussing or it’s Scuba being innocent.

1. Yes. Blaster Master made a case on me early Yesterday, and was the first to vote for me.
2. 1109, 1424, 1428.
3. A couple of real time days ago, yes as I was the vote leader. Drain Bead was for a while convinced by BlaM’s case.

I note here that **septimus **in 1367 voted BlaM for going after me. I’ll have to reread that post and consider septimus.

@Gadarene

J.D. will be subbing in to replace SisterCoyote. Say hi to J.D.!

@Gadarene

DuckburgDK will be subbing in to replace MykBot. Say hi to Duck!

Hi J.D. and DuckburgDK! Glad to have you here. Assuming you two are Villagers.

[Scuba_Ben]

Caught up to my 3117.

I’m getting an anti-Town feel on NAF. I don’t have a reason for it. I’d appreciate other people’s opinions on him.

I’m also getting an anti-Town feel on ATPG, from his oft-stated determination to keep poisoning people, or alternately keep poisoning brewha until e’s very dead.

I am keeping my vote on sangaman. E referred to eir own post as a “slip” not a “mistake” or “goof.” In my experience, Scum makes slips and Town makes goofs. But this is hardly proof.

[lilflower]

@TexCat

The voting record is clear even in a tie. And having a random lynch of the tied players is not all that bad for town. (Unlike some other games we’ve had recently.)

What does muddy the voting record is voting for people for bad reasons just to avoid the tie. It’s just an additional excuse that scum can use for a bad vote.

We may just have to agree to disagree then because I think changing a vote to avoid a tie is a good reason for a vote. **peeker **did the same thing yesterDay and luckily he was town who ended up voting for a scum. Do you think his vote was bad?

And perhaps “clear” isn’t the right word but maybe “accountable.” Meaning, I think it is important for each player to have a vote that either contributed to a lynch or not. When you have twice as many votes for a lynch that ended up being chosen randomly, I don’t think that lends itself to accountability.

[NAF1138]

@Scuba_Ben

Caught up to my 3117.

I’m getting an anti-Town feel on NAF. I don’t have a reason for it. I’d appreciate other people’s opinions on him.

That’s interesting. Is it because I keep asking people to tell me why you were suspicious and no one has yet?

How about you? What was the case against you?