Mystery Mafia -- Game Thread

The Game Room
3122

**Sangaman’s **posts (and the few by **Meeko **before he subbed out):

Day 1 - posts by Meeko
423 - fluff
427 - fluff
493 - votes Krayz
918 - subs out

Day 1 -posts by Sangaman
726 - subs in, says hello

Night 1
1055 - fluff
1090 - fluff

Day 2
1128 - suggested someone might have peeked Dancecat N0 and sent the info to Idle N1
1248 - analysis of krayz voters from D1.
1445 - talks bout Meeko’s vote on Krayz
1447 - asks why Pizza claimed Vig. asks about doule-kill on Mahaloth
2355 - notes he won’t have time to catch up before EoD. Thinks Texcat, gnarlycharlie and Silver Jan are all telling the truth. doesn’t like a Giraffe lynch
2375 - doesn’t like a Blaster Master lynch, thinks PCM would have been a good lynch
2406 - fluff
2464 - fluff
2470 - fluff
2473 - fluff
2481 - thinks Blaster made a good defense. Wants to vote PCM. doesn’t want to vote Tex, Gnarly, or Jan. Needs to read up on Idle.
2490 - fluff

Night 2
2498
2568
2617
2621
2622
2625

Day 3
2710 - comment on N2 carnage. Says we shouldn’t waste a lynch on brewha since he’s been poisoned.
2728 - disucsses ‘who to lynch’ philosophy, with regard to brewha
2845 - discusses brewha. mentions that there were 9 wolves. talks about wolf healers. Thinks LightFoot might be a good lynch and theat Scuba_Ben seems Villagery.
3057 - addresses his ‘slip’. says he thought the OP said 9 wolves, and that he is used to wolves equalling 25% of the player pool
3067 - reiterates that he is used to 25% of the players being wolves, and has never played in a game where the muber of wolves was not common knowledge

Nothing to go on for Day 1
He didn’t place a vote on Day 2
Day 3 he’s told us he thinks a lynch of **brewha **would be a waste, and hasn’t made any other analysis at all (except for telling us how many Scum there are)

The only person he’s expressed any suspicion of is Precambrianmollusc; twice on Day 2 he mentions PCM, but he doesn’t place a vote.

His ‘slip’ might by PIS, or it might just be a Townie making a bad assumption, and there’s no direct evidence to support either conclusion. So taking that out of consideration, and simply looking at the rest of his game, I’m seeing no real attempt to assist the Town in its efforts. He’s either a very lazy Townie, or he’s Scum.

3123

No, that’s not it.

“There is too much. Let me sum up.”

  • Weak voting on D1
  • Voting with weak reasons early and often
  • Jumping onto the Krayz bandwagon, after I had previously unvoted em

See my reply to ATPG, where I reference Blaster Master’s case against me Yesterday. Please keep in mind (i) that e was Scum, and (ii) it’s now Day 3 when I have stuff to work with.

3124

In 4 posts, two are fluff.

Says nothing D1.

5 fluff posts out of 12. Wanted to vote PCM in two posts, but doesn’t actually vote.

Better, but doesn’t really make a case on anybody, even LightFoot.

I concur with Plankton. Either sangaman is very lazy, or sanga/Meeko is scummy. Their combined Daytime post history is not helpful. I’m also worried that of Meeko’s 3 posts on D1 before e asked to be subbed out, 2 were fluff – e’s usually almost as talkative as PizzaGuy or peeker.

I suggest that additional pressure on sanga to step up eir game is warranted. And if sanga doesn’t get lynched, e’s a good candidate for various Night actions. I’d prefer an investigation over a poisoning, it seems to me that poisoning is better suited at the moment to pushing a lurker if we have any. (I haven’t checked the Who Posted? list for lurkers.)

3125

meone throw together a short list of cliff notes for JD and duckburg? I at least have the death write ups on hand but I don’t have any of the flavor copied.
Day one Lynch:

Day one night actions:

Day Two Lynch:

Night Two Actions

Brewha is poisoned and may die tonight if not targeted by a an anti-dote/healer.
Silman was Silman
Dancecat was hifi
Episkey is Jimhalpert
Donkx4 is donkdonkdonkdonk
pwnsall is pwnsall
J.D. is J.D.
Sangaman is Sangaman

I think that’s all the 2p2ers, I could have missed someone.

3126

You sure about that?

Hmmm, interesting. Do you remember who was on that case other than BlaM?

3127

I’m fairly good at knowing what my intuition isn’t about. So yes, I’m sure that my sense isn’t OMGUS.

Drain Bead for one. Scathach went me-too in 1498. Peeker had me at his #2 in 1456. Shortly after that I went away for a while, and when I came back I was no longer the lynch leader.

I tentatively soft-cleared Drain Bead a while back. peeker is KIA. Scathach is on your leaning-Scum list.

special ed is on your leaning-scum list too. I question whether a power booster would be a a Town or Scum role, and I question whether the Scum might have normally-Town roles. So without other info, I’m curious why you’re leaning Scum on ed.

3128

ABWOP: Your question to me was “That’s interesting. Is it because I keep asking people to tell me why you were suspicious and no one has yet?”

I see nothing wrong in asking about past cases. So I’m sure my leaning-Scum sense isn’t part of that. As for why they haven’t replied – well, two of them are Dead, and I’ve given you the posts for the major case on me Yesterday.

Please ask yourself this (riddle me this, NAFman): If I am Town, why would I help you go through the case Yesterday against me?

I will note that Blaster’s concerns were valid. I claim eir conclusion, trying to lynch me, was incorrect.

Blaster kept talking emself right into a noose. Feel free to keep talking, maybe we’ll find another Wolf, regardless of your alignment.

3129

Interesting stats.

The top two posters through 3127 are peeker (318) and ATPG (261). NAF is a comparatively distant third at 198.

All the posters with fewer than 20 are, IIRC, subbed out, subs, or Sir Not Appearing In This Game. Septimus is the lagger at 20, less than 10% of PizzaGuy’s post count.

Low post counts need not indicate Scum. High post counts strongly indicate talkiness but not alignment; I would expect peeker and PizzaGuy to post a lot regardless of their alignment. (Hence me curious about a 3-handed game, with peeker and PizzaGuy being two of them.)

3130

Thinking about the ‘Night whispers’ so far…

Night 1

Blaster Master whispered Giraffe that he is Town (false)
Dancecat whispered Idle Thoughts that he is Town (true)
Unknown whispered Scuba_Ben that Silver Jan is Town
Unknown whispered Silver Jan that gnarlycharlie is Scum
Unknown whispered Weedy that gnarlycharlie is town, and a Mason

Night 2
Blaster Master whispered nobody (he was already dead)
Dancecat whispered ???
Unknown whispered Giraffe that pwnsall is Town
Unknown whispered Askthepizzaguy that Episkey is Scum
Unknown whispered Askthepizzaguy that NAF1138 is Scum

Silver Jan and **Weedy **received conflicting information on Night 1. Unless one of them actually received no message and is just making things up, one of those messages must be false. I will assume for now that niether is making up their story.

Dancecat should have whispered someone on Night 2 with her alignment, but it’s possible that she was blocked, or that her death took precedence so her action didn’t go through. If anyone did receive a whisper regarding Dancecat, they need to speak up now. So we have three ‘Unknown’ whispers from Night 1, and three from Night 2. We can assume that at least one of these is false and at least one is true (see Silver Jan/Weedy).

Unfortunately, we can’t draw any conclusions from that, as the various permutations run all the way from “pwnsall, Episkey, **NAF1138 **are all Town”, to “pwnsall, Episkey, NAF1138 are all Scum”

It’s interesting that **Giraffe **was the recipient of whispers on both Nights. Why is that? Night 1’s whisper was from Blaster Master; that much seems confirmed. And by Night 2, we knew that Giraffe had been fed false information. Would this make it more or less likely that someone would choose to target Giraffe with an investigation result on Night 2? Personally, I’d say “less”, but that’s just how I would have played it if it were my decision; I have no facts to back up that opinion. Of course, it’s quite possible that nobody chose to send their investigation results to Giraffe; it sould have been a random pick, or there could have been a third party involved.

Also interesting is why two different people sent whispers to **Askthepizzaguy **on Night 2. Considering he had claimed “possibly Poisoner” on Day 2, I find it hard to beleive that two different people found him to be a ‘trusted recipient’ for their information. But again, we have no particular reason to beleive that our investigators are themselves choosing the recipients of their results.

My gut instinct is that one of Pizza’s results is true, and the other is false. But that’s just instinct. I was hoping this exercise here would either confirm or refute the premise, but it seems to have done neither.

In any case, I think the odds are that among pwnsall, Epsikey, and NAF1138, there is at least one Scum.

3131

Nice summary table, Plankton.

It seems to me that whoever got a message from Dancecat about eir alignment can safely disclose that message, as it’s no longer useful. And if nobody discloses such a message, either Dancecat was blocked, e whispered to another of the Night killed, or both.

I doubt any confirmation of receipt of Dancecat’s message would be helpful, however.

3132

ABWOP: I agree with your gut instinct and conclusion. I add that the odds seem against all three of them being Scum.

3133

Agreed. Still, if it was received, I think it’s in the Town’s best interest to share that information. If someone *did *get such a whisper, then we know Dancecat wasn’t blocked, which could prove useful somewhere down the line.

3134

I honestly can’t say. It is one of those things that doesn’t make sense if I go back and try to build a case, but I don’t typically find Ed to be scummy and right now every time he posts it strikes me wrong.

It’s why he hasn’t gotten a vote. If I can’t build a case I am not going to make a vote, but I figure I should mention it.

3135

Don’t assume that just because I am looking at you I am trying to nail you as scum. Bad assumption right there.

That is now, and always, my plan.

3136

This sounds right to me.

3137

The other option is that the people (or at least some of them) sending this information have no idea that they are doing it (i.e., what their role is).

3138

Yes that was a bad assumption / defensive reaction on my part, the kind that got me drowned in Sekhmet. Given the scrutiny I took on D2 in this game, I think I’ve gotten better at handling the pressure. The defensiveness is my problem.

I agree with lilflower, it’s possible that the whisperers don’t know it yet. There’s enough data for some people to determine that they aren’t the whisperers, eg. anybody who targeted a message recipient or subject on N1 but didn’t target any of them on N2.

Similarly, it seems to me that someone who did target a message recipient both Night or a message subject both Nights can conclude they are probably a whisperer. It’s probably in their interest to NOT claim this. And therefore it’s probably in the Town’s interest for there to NOT be a mass claim of “I’m [del]Spartacus[/del] not a whisperer!” (There’s what, 30-ish players Alive? If all but 3 say “I’m not a whisperer!” the remaining 3 very likely ARE.)

And just to check my math. As I count it, we started with 37, have had 2 lynches, have had 3 Night kills per Night, total KIA is 8. So we’re down to 29. A few more Day-Night cycles and we’ll be at a manageable number for a Mafia game.

3139

When I asked the order of actions Gad did respond. IIRC kills are last at the same time. If no one got a message from Dancecat. Then who ever targeted Her Last Night could be a roleblocker. That could be usefull to Town.

3140

MODERATOR NOTE

:stuck_out_tongue:

3141

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