biggest town read and pro-town aren’t the same thing
his attempts to be pro-town seem genuine combined with the other things makes him virtually lock villager
NETA: And I am not so sure that Brewha is going to flip scum. So I really can’t imagine what anyone is doing on that wagon.
And I’ll repeat again that this is the 2nd game that I’ve played with Pizza, but I have no doubt that he could do all of this as scum. I’d give him a null-tell so far.
Here is my wagon analysis from day 2. I took the end of day vote chart and broke it down into a few key moments:
As of 2nd vote on Blaster Master (Septimus [1808]) the wagons were as follows:
GnarlyCharlie (7):
Lilflower [1720]
Idle Thoughts [1723]
Brewha [1732]
Silver Jan [1735]
NAF [1737]
Drain Bead [1738]
Giraffe [1768]
Scuba Ben (3):
Suburban Plankton [1449]
Weedy [1452]
Scathach [1499]
Blaster Master (2):
Donktimesfour [1135]
Septimus [1808]
Silver Jan (2):
Zeriel [1126]
Blaster [1759]
Peeker (1):
Bufftabby [1646]
Weedy (1):
Askthepizzaguy [1590]
Giraffe (1):
Normal Phase [1157]
Donktimesfour (1):
Peeker [1663]
Episkey (1):
CrackedQuads [1552]
**TexCat (1): **
Dancecat [1787]
As of the 5h vote on Blaster (Me, Episkey [2295]) the wagons were as follow (this is prior to the Inner Wagon gaining steam):
Scuba Ben (6)
Suburban Plankton [1449]
Idle Thoughts [1904]
Scathach [1895]
Lilflower [2222]
Blaster Master [2238]
Gnarly [2245]
Blaster Master (5):
DonkTimesFour [1135]
septimus [1808]
Dancecat [2258]
Normal Phase [2272]
Episkey [2295]
Silver Jan (5):
Zeriel [1126]
Weedy [1812]
Brewha [2159]
Drain Bead [1936]
Scuba [2235]
GnarlyCharlie (3):
Astral Rejection [1971]
Inner Stickler [2111]
PCBM [2123]
Inner Stickler (2):
TexCat [2204],
NAF1138 [2249]
Giraffe (2)
Peeker [1927]
Silver Jan [2282]
Peeker (2):
Bufftabby [1646]
Giraffe [2246]
PCBM (1)
CrackedQuads [2143]
Dancecat (1)
AskThePizzaGuy [1969]
Here comes the formation of the Stickler wagon. I’m going to take this one at a time (in order) and focus entirely on votes involving these two wagons:
Drain Bead: From Silver Jan → Blaster
Idle Thoughts: From Scuba Ben → Blaster
NAF: From Inner → Blaster
Scuba: From Silver Jan → Inner
Light Foot: From No Vote → Inner
Gnarly: From Scuba → Inner
Scathach: From Scuba → Inner
Silver Jan: From Special Ed → Inner
Brewha: From Silver Jan → Inner
Lilflower: From Scuba → Inner
Lilflower: From Inner → Scuba
Pwnsall: From PCBM → Blaster
Peeker: From Giraffe → Blaster
Blaster: From Scuba → Inner
What I take from this:
I want to temp clear DonkTimesFour and Septimus for their extremely early Blaster votes and for never wavering on it during the chaotic end of day. I also want to temp clear Normal Phase for being the 4th vote on Blaster and also never wavering.
By “Temp Clear” I mean I will not be inclined to vote them for the foreseeable future. The things I temp clear are the ones I believe to be most Town like behavior. As the game progresses and we learn more info, I’ll have to re-evaluate. But for now these guys should be off limits.
Person that went from Gnarly → Scuba → Inner is likely to be trying to fit onto any non-blaster wagon they can find:
Lilflower (Though vote moved off wagon before eod to another non blaster wagon)
If there was bussing occurring my best bet would be** NAF**, considering the vote prior to his made it 7-2 Blaster, and his vote made it 8-1. Also to note: He was initially on Blaster and moved to Inner before switching back. Perhaps a “lets try to save you” -> “nvm it’s 7-2 not happening, sorry” -> “Sigh, now I can’t switch back it’ll look atrocious”.
I want to temp clear Pwnsall for his late vote of blaster
I also want to take a hard look at** Scathach** for the Scuba → Inner vote
Or, yanno, the fact that he was fairly late on the **Inner Stickler **train yesterDay, making him possible scum. Which, by the way, we started out looking at earlier toDay.
I dunno, did those people mean “Oh, let’s look at everyone late on that train EXCEPT Brewha?” Makes no sense to me. I still find him (and Scathach to a degree) suspicious for that reason.
Maybe more of a lock as not Wolf?
self-aligned isn’t out of the question.
that is a strange statement
you must have learned a lot in that one game
I think bussing among the native group is probably done more aggressively and more frequently.
Leading a bus, starting on a teammate and staying there, and being a late swing vote are all things that occur here on a regular basis. We don’t give too much Town credit for those things.
lol, so why would any wolf ever do those things?
oh yeah
giraffe also soft cleared for being targeted by blaster n1
Yeah, for real. The whole purpose of it is to get a heap of town cred, but if towns here don’t ever give cred I can’t fathom why bussing would be rampant.
ok cool, thats good info to have.
With that info, I also agree with the last sentence.
I voted lilflower on Day one, and a lot of it had to do with her vote on me. I’d love someone with a little more perspective to take a look at her. And I think her reasoning for moving off the Inner wagon was wrong: it was because she didn’t want a tie and she didn’t like the Blaster wagon. Which doesn’t really make sense to me from either a townie or a wolfie perspective.
NAF went mostly back and forth between Blaster and Inner. His votes looked solid to me.
I don’t agree with the temp clear of Pwns. Couldn’t this late vote be throwing in the towel and bussing?
also as far as 2p2ers go
sanga wolfy ldo, none of the reasons given for slip has been particularly good
cracked slight wolf lean
donk/jim villa leans
jd no lean
mostly just based on tone
of course it COULD be, hence soft clear
assuming it’s anything but villagery is so lol tho, i don’t even get how people can think that
When pwns voted it was 8-7 Blaster by my calculation, making it 9-7. Scum had the chance to tie it up and I believe pwns would have taken it if he was scum.
Again though, thats why I used “temp clear” rather than “lock clear”. At a later date we need to reevaluate with the new info, but temp clearing people allows us to POE the lynch for the next few days with a higher % of wolves in the pool than without the temp clears.
At least thats my opinion.
also i think the amount of 2p2 deaths at night point towards more 2p2 wolves, assuming i’m remembering right
a bit thin but something to consider
I agree with pretty much all of this, though I don’t want to put much stock in the “slip” and would rather look at his overall body of work. In a recent game on POG Dean basically said the same thing and was villa, it’s just we’re used to 25% I think.
I still don’t understand what there is to be embarrassed about though. Should have just posted asap explaining our 25% rule of thumb.
Speaking of this, I actually mentioned it after night 1. Silman was killed at night, yet he wasn’t very active in the thread and didn’t say too much game related stuff, so I thought it pointed to a pretty POG heavy wolf team. I figured the SDMB people would have no reason to think Silman is Silman, while Poggers would just pretty much insta kill him when he’s a villager.
the bad explanation is as bad as the slip tho, i’ve made tons of mistakes before like that but i just say “here is exactly what happened and my thought process behind it”
if you do it right and explain in detail it can even be clearing of you