And what I saw on Giraffe after others suspected Giraffe. 1341
Thanks for the links. I’ll take a look.
solly.
ok. help me.
i can’t talk about the way people behave in the game.
i certainly can’t talk about other folks and their proclivity to goats.
i can’t talk about the mods.
can i talk about the weather?
or maybe the geopolitical implications of a global financial melt down?
shoot, just give me a choice my friend.
extra deaths are to towns benefit.
That’s a terrifying thought. If both of you are scum and just drowning out all the rest of the actual game play. I really don’t think it’s the case, but I wonder if one of the top most prolific posters really is the wolf spokesperson so to speak.
I gotta go back and look at the bandwagons from yesterday again. That conversation seems to have been forgotten. With several viable bandwagons, it stands to reason that one of them was for scum and that krays’ lynch was influenced by them.
peeker, how about playing the effing game?
This comment bothers me. Townies should make cases and not bother themselves about whether or not other people follow them.
In other news, I am really starting to get concerned about the lack of votes on peeker toDay as compared to yesterDay. My analysis of Scuba Ben has the two of them linked as Scum, with the latter trying to save the former with his votes on the Krayz wagon. I am considering switching my vote to peeker and focusing on Ben tomorrow if peeker turns out to be Scum, but I’m not sure if I’m falling into the “vote for peeker because he’s being a dick all over the game thread” trap. Any thoughts on this from anyone else?
[quote=“Drain_Bead, post:1627, topic:593025”]
peeker, how about playing the effing game?/QUOTE]
that’s what i am trying to do. i’ll ask you the same question that i asked jan that she chose not to answer. as town what is our job? probably paraphrased a touch.
- I’m not lynching a claimed vig at this stage in this setup with no counterclaim. The only possible scenarios are:
a. Pizza is really a vig, and is town
b. Pizza really thinks he’s a vig, but is something else, and is town
c. Pizza isn’t a vig, and is a wolf who thinks that claiming vig will save him from the lynch (even though he wasn’t getting substantial heat and in all likelihood had nothing to fear)
d. FPS option: Pizza is town, he knows his role, he knows it’s useless, and is claiming vig in an attempt to draw fire from scum at night.
I think the likelihood of each possibility is b>a>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>c>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>d
Therefore, it’s very likely that Pizza is town imo.
Fraid I disagree.
Townies should do their damndest to get actual suspects lynched. Plopping a do-nothing vote on Brewha by itself does the town absolutely no good, and doesn’t frighten any wolves either.
[ul]
[li]Putting your vote on people who could actually be lynched, and/or[/li][li]Campaigning for someone’s lynch but abandoning that for secondary or tertiary suspects that may get lynched[/li][/ul]
Are both ways of pressuring the scums as effectively as I can. I will defend the way I play 7 ways from Sunday, and I have very solid ground to challenge you on this.
Oy. Ok, just starting to even try to catch up right now.
And I think I lost my bet with Peek. I don’t think the interaction on this page with Gad would have happened if Peek was scum.
I am going back now to really catch up. More thoughts in a bit.
NETA: that 1) was going to be part of a list that I forgot to finish
I’m not getting a scum feel from Peeker. His posting habits are pretty anti-town because the noise is drowning out any actual discussion. My best guess at this point is that Peeker is town or PFK.
I’m not ruling out wolf, but he’s being awfully loud and confrontational. Wolves tend to avoid that kind of thing - at least to the degree that Peeker is engaged.
D is more likely than B, heads up.
It’s understandable why you’d infer this, but please accept my position that peeker’s off-topic posts have been anti-game regardless of his role, and I wouldn’t be tolerating them if he were scum (or neutral) any more than I would if he were town.
I believe that you believe this.
A grand idear there
This seems to be ** ATPG’s** MO. (not that I excuse it)
I’m getting mixed messages all over the place. I am tempted to lean into that trap myself (but the bait smells funny), but I am waiting to see what some of our quieter players have to say if they return in time to do so.
Or, Gad let it go as long as it did because Peek is scum. I’m not one for metagaming mod actions - but peeker is the post leader by close to 3 times the count of the number two poster.
I’m just saying that I wouldn’t clear Peeker based on that.
“Me too” votes are complex animals as far as sniffing out scumminess. Often when it’s a wagon and the evidence is weak like “his posting is scummy” or “he’s doing a lot of smudging” and someone "Me Too"s the vote, it could be scum putting and opportunistic vote, either to get a townie dead or gain town cred on lynching a deadman walking scum, or it could be a townie who has the same read or is lazy. It’s difficult to differentiate them as they happen, but the pattern becomes useful after a voting record is established. Were they consistently on bandwagons for weak reasons or “Me Too” votes? How did those wagons turn out? How does the timing of those votes play into how that wagon relates to other potential lynch targets?
OTOH, sometimes a significant case is already made, like I feel I did with Scuba_Ben. If it convinces a townie, they often won’t have much to add, so how else can they vote besides saying they’re convinced? Unfortunately, scum will react the same way. That said, what you’ll often see that differentiates them is that, once one is convinced, one can start panning out likely scenarios based upon the results of that lynch, and scum often will not do so. Particularly in this case, I expect that if Scuba_Ben flips scum, then we almost certainly have to consider lynching one of the other top vote getters from Yesterday, and I also suspect that we’ll have some scum bussing him Today at the point that it becomes clear that he’s going down.
So, if I have time Today, I’ll start taking a close look at TexCat and Silver Jan as my hunch is it’s one of those two given how Ben’s voting pattern was around peeker.
OTOH, if Scuba_Ben flips town, I’m honestly not really sure what to make of that. I suppose it lessens suspicion on those two. I’d probably be inclined to look at people who were shying away from the Ben wagon without providing any real reason.
Frankly, I’m unsure what to make of this either. I think seeing how their votes ultimately land, how Ben flips, and whatever else we gain Tonight will shed a lot more light on it.
A PFK with a confirmable power, particularly in a closed game, actually has some reasonable motivation to come forth. He knows that neither the town nor scum can differentiate a Vig from an SK and so, by coming forth, he can confirm his power and openly use it in a pro-town way which gains the trust of the town. This not only gains him possible protection, but likely avoids investigations. It also means that as long as the scum are on a cop/doc hunt, he’ll probably remain alive unless they don’t have any better targets, particularly if he expresses suspicion in townies because he’ll do some of their work for them.
I already expressed my thoughts on this earlier, but I think any reasoning from this is not going to be fruitful. It’s highly probable that there’s at least one scum from both circles. As such, any reasoning that only Dopers or only Other-Boarders would know could easily be expressed by just that one person, particularly early in the game when their numbers are high.
Now, if we could determine clear style from one circle with little or no influence from the other, we might be able to say that they’re 100% one or the other, and that would be very useful information particularly since it’s so incredibly unlikely, but any mix in between is virtually indistinguishable.
Instead, all we’re really seeing, I think, is confirmation bias. As in, being part of this circle I might have done something for that reason, they did that, therefore they’re from my circle; however, not being from the other circle, one is ignorant of why they might have done it as well. For instance, I think it was episkey who suggested they were Other-Boarders because Guiri was killed and someone in a game there did stuff similar, but Dopers very well may have wanted him dead because they already knew he was a good player. So, if he was a scum kill, there’s no meaningful way of differentiating. Hell, he might have been killed for some other reason too, particularly if he was one of the only ones expressing suspicion for towards someone.
Either way, since we can’t even determine who killed who, and reasoning based on scum Night kills often includes a lot of dangerous assumptions, and even with reasonable ones we can’t make a meaningful differentiation, I agree that it’s pure WIFOM, at least at this point. If at some point we learn who targetted who or the alignments of some of the proponents, we might have something, but certainly not now.
Oy, you guys are making it hard to actually catch up. I need to turn off my email notifications for this game.
I am not 100% clearing him based on that. I am soft clearing him and reversing my previous decision that he had displayed his tell based on current posting behavior and mod reaction to said behavior.
really? wow, i thought you guys frowned upon that sort of thing.