NASCAR 2008, or When did Indycars become a feeder series?

The Game Room
1

So, race fans, the 2008 season is almost upon us, and what an interesting year it should be.

Dale Jr.'s got that new-car smell at Hendrick, Joe Gibbs is turning Japanese, the rookie-of-the-year candidates read like an Indy 500 winners list and Dale Jarrett’s going into the family business and stepping behind the microphone for ESPN.

Of all the offseason changes, the one I expect to have the most impact is, of course, Little E going to Hendrick. I expect at least three wins, and that’s before I figure in my expectations as a Junior fan. The challenge is going to be making three big names gel as teammates without stepping on any egos. Gordon’s been the man at Hendrick virtually since day one, and while Johnson’s managed to share the spotlight with him so far, I’m not sure how having a teammate who sucks all the air from the room like Junior will affect him.

Gibbs going to Toyota is a clear case of a rising tide lifting all ships. Expect Red Bull and MWR to be much improved because of it, and if Bill Davis can get his program together for once, he might reap the benefits as well. Davis’ problem is that he still doesn’t have a firm commitment from Villeneuve for a full season or sponsorship for that car, and with rumors that Jack is sniffing around Peugeot for another run at Le Mans, finding someone to sign the checks may be a challenge.

As for the other open-wheelers, it’s a mixed bag when it comes to performance and expectations. Franchitti’s got a good resource in Montoya, but he’s also got sponsor woes, and without a firm budget, he may get the short end of the stick with regards to engineering. Hornish will have The Captain’s full support, but unless Newman and Busch have taught him something over the winter, he’ll struggle to maintain that top-35 starting spot all year (as well as a fleet of undamaged cars.) Carpentier is a pretty big question mark for me, because he was impressive at Montreal and Watkins Glen, but road racing wasn’t his strength in Indycars. If he can take his oval Indy talent and translate it to stock cars, he might end up being the best of the new guys.

Prediction time!
My picks for the Chase: J. Gordon, Earnhardt, Stewart, Hamlin, Harvick, Edwards, Kurt Busch, Montoya, Kenseth, Johnson, Burton and Truex.

Juan Pablo Montoya will win at least one oval race this year (Atlanta, Indy or Texas are my guesses) and probably three races overall.

Toyota will have a win before April, and it just might come at Daytona.

Jacques Villeneuve will end his NASCAR excursion by Bristol, but he might do a couple of one-offs later in the year to prepare for a 2009 campaign.

At least one team will fold before the return to Daytona in July, and another will have a sponsor flake on paying the bills.

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I’m not gonna make any predix, 'cause I’d surely be wrong, but the things that are going to make this season interesting for me will be:

  1. How well Little E fits in at Hendrick, and whether he finds his mojo again (i’m thinkin’ yes)

  2. Toyota: the motors are fast, from all reports, but are they durable?

  3. Will Roush-Fenway fall together this year, or fall apart? Seemed to be rather a lot of emnity between Edwards and the other Roush teams toward the end of last season.

  4. Likewise, will Stewart and Kyle Busch be gellin’ like Magellan, or er, not so much?

  5. How will the open-wheelers perform? I frankly don’t expect a huge amount from Franchitti, Hornish and Carpentier this year, but the two road-course events should be even more of a hoot than usual.

Btw, if you’re interested, brian, (or anyone else) we’ve started an SDMB fantasy league again this year; joining instructions in this thread.

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Good write up jedi.

For chasers this year, I’m going to predict that EARNHARDT does NOT make the chase.

For “upset” predictions, I’m going to say that the steadily improving CASEY MEARS makes the Chase, as well as MONTOYA. MEARS is moving into about his sixth season. He got hsi first win last year. He’s been good at a lot of the intermediate tracks, and in previous years, had some great runs at Talladega. He had a good year last year for his first year at HMS, and I think it starts to click for him this season.

I’m going to kick out JEFF BURTON. He’s so unspectacular to me, but sometimes he just strikes me as the new Mark Martin. Always there in the top 10 at the end.

I’m going to kick out TRUEX. I think DEI continues to have problems this year.

Keep everyone else the same. I wouldn’t mind seeing NEWMAN take a spot from KURT BUSCH, but Kurt’s a better driver in a similar machine.

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Here’s some things to watch… some are repeats from above:

  1. Dale Jr. driving for Hendrick. Will there be enough wins to go around?

  2. How is the CoT going to do on the intermediate tracks? If winter practice is any indication, it might not be as durable as people had hoped. By durable, I mean its ability to stay in a race after minor damage, not driver safety.

2b) Will there be side by side racing with the CoT?

  1. How will the Toyotas run this year? I’m guessing that they have to be happy with the performance coming out of JGR so far in the winter practices.

  2. Will the loss of JGR hurt Chevy’s program?

4b) Can RCR and DEI compete at the same level as the Hendrick teams over the course of a season?

  1. How many of the open wheel guys will be around by 2009? Most of them haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire so far.
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I think Dale Jr. is going to have a tougher time getting acclimated at Hendrick than people think. While he might appreciate not carrying an entire team on his back for a while, I think third-wheel syndrome sets in pretty quickly, and strain will begin to show up between Gordon, Johnson, and Jr. I’m also going to step out on a limb and say Johnson starts poking around for a new situation this season. I don’t think he’ll move yet, but I do think he will start to get sick of hanging out in Gordon’s shadow.

And now, my riskiest prediction: the new guys wreck a whole bunch of cars.

6

Ouch. I think that the issues at DEI are far from over, let’s face it, unless Ms. Bitch decides to cede control of the company they’re pretty much finished but Truex is one of my favorite drivers and he managed to squeek in last year even with the engine problems. I think as long as they can get some more reliable motors that he’s a good pick for making the chase again this year.

I also didn’t see any mention yet of Clint Bowyer, my other favorite driver. He managed a top 3 Chase finish last season and I fully expect to see the Jack Daniels 07 car continue in those winning ways. He’s not a big name yet, but he looks like he will be in the years to come.

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You have to wonder if the DEI-RCR engine alliance means that Teresa’s cars won’t grenade like a Top Fuel dragster, or if it means Childress will have a huge parts budget this year.

Truex’s big problem to overcome will be not having a teammate to bounce setups off of, because Paul Menard is a ride-buyer with only a little talent, Mark Martin’s got one foot out the door, Regan Smith is a danger to himself and others and Aric Almirola shot himself in the foot career-wise just to spite J.D. Gibbs.

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If you ask me who I think will end up benefitting the most from the DEI-RCR engine swap, it ain’t DEI. My worst fear is that DEI becomes a Childress testing ground for new designs or a junkyard for motors that aren’t good enough for their in house drivers. Sure it’s a business, but it’s a racing business. You’d have to be nuts to give equal motors to a competitior even if they’re paying you top dollar.

Hopefully Truex will run enough Busch series races to allow those to be practice runs on the tracks before running hard on Sunday and maybe, maybe, that will help.

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While I agree that they bought his way in, Menard isn’t that bad. DEI better hope for a lot of positive influence from Mark though.

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Menard’s not as bad as most ride-buyers, but if he had to win a seat based solely on talent and not Daddy’s big pile of caulk-and-lightbulb money, he wouldn’t be driving a Cup car for DEI. He had no shot of making the top 35 until Bobby Ginn pulled a J.D. Stacy and Teresa was able to buy the remains for pennies on the dollar, and most weekends, he’s struggling to remain on the lead lap.

Bud Shootout practice turned into a tow truck race this afternoon, mainly because everyone’s having to drive sideways because of bottoming out over the bumps. Smoke’s already been called to the Big Red Truck and the season hasn’t officially started yet, which I think is a record even for him.

And Robby Gordon got busted with an unapproved nose on his car because Dodge is in the process of getting a new nosepiece, but it hasn’t been signed off on yet. Apparently Gillette Evernham sent the wrong pieces over.