It has little to do with the cities, but all to do with the sports teams.
Exfuckingxactly. Jordan/Kobe/Bird/Magic, even someone like Isaiah or Barkley would have looked at that Miami team and thought “I want to beat them” not join them, and it would have made for incredible basketball.
Don’t bet on Reddick, Orlando management loves him and doesn’t care how much they spend.
Plus Otis doesn’t like losing RFA’s without getting something in return - see last year when he took Bass from the Mavericks while leading them to believe he’d let them have Gortat, then matching their offer for Gortat.
If he matches JJ, we have 3 great trading chips: Gortat, JJ, and Bass - all are backups on the Magic that can play as starters on some teams. I think if he can get the greenlight for the money he’ll resign Redick… on the 7th day, of course, because screw the Bulls.
Miami’s power trio has some company: Udonis Haslem agreed to take less money to stay with the Heat. He signed for $20 million over five years. Dallas and Denver supposedly offered around $10 million more, so the Heat have gotten at least one guy to take a discount. No word on whether they can get Mike Miller. I said earlier LeBron and Wade and Bosh were leaving about $5 million on the table this year, but it’s actually more than that. I just averaged out the value of their contracts but they get raises each year, so the team has more flexibility now. After Haslem and Miller, though, I think the team might only be able to offer the minimum to the remaining four to six players they need.
Derek Fisher is staying with the Lakers. I think L.A. offered him a third year, which they hadn’t done initially. I assume Kobe threatened to go postal if the team didn’t keep Fisher.
Orlando is supposedly going to take the full week to decide what to do about Redick. Meanwhile the Magic signed Quentin Richardson.
The Suns are close to getting Hedo Turkoglu from Toronto and Josh Childress from Greece (via Atlanta). Toronto would get Leandro Barbossa and Turkoglu would get to throw a huge party for getting out of Toronto.
Since the Lakers picked up Steve Blake, Jordan Farmar signed with the Nets. And Ben Wallace signed a two-year deal with the Pistons.
I still want to know what to know what Cleveland and Toronto are supposed to be getting in return in a sign-and-trade that’s allowing LeBrand and Bosh to get a 6th year. What could Miami possibly have to offer both teams at this point?
It’s all draft picks. After Miami agreed to trade Beasley they had only one player under contract, so there was not much else to offer. Cleveland gets two first round picks between 2013 and 2017, two second round picks (one in 2012 that originally belonged to New Orleans and another that originally belong to Oklahoma City), plus the rights to swap first round picks with Miami in 2012. Of course there is no reason for Cleveland to take Miami’s pick. Toronto gets two first round picks, and both teams are getting a trade exception because they didn’t take back any salary to replace the money LeBron and Bosh signIt sounds like the exact years of the picks are to be determined- I think teams are not allowed to trade their first-round picks in consecutive years, so if I’m remembering correctly, they’ll have to alternate in some way. So Miami is committing to relying on free agents for a long time because they will have few draft picks for most of the next decade.
Those picks aren’t much of a replacement for LeBron and Bosh because they’re probably all going to be late in the first round, but it was either that or lose the players for nothing. It sounded like Toronto and Cleveland were really thinking about giving the players a $30 million “fuck you,” but business sense won out.
Miami is officially going to sign Miller to a five year deal. And I’ll point out here that Udonis Haslem is giving up more money than any of Miami’s Big Three: I think Dallas and Denver were offering him $34 million over five years. He actually took a pay cut to about $4 million a year from $7.1 million. Still plenty of money in the end. I’m surprised Miami hasn’t signed a real center to go with Pittman yet but I’m sure they’ll try to find one.
ESPN reports that Dallas and Utah are both talking to Minnesota about trading for Al Jefferson.
A few more moves: Tony Allen leaves the Celtics to sign a three-year deal with Memphis. Charlotte is apparently getting ready to trade Boris Diaw and Tyson Chandler to Toronto for Jose Calderon, Reggie Evans, and Leandro Barbossa, who’s coming over in the Turkoglu deal. But none of that has been completed.
I’m taking that Q signing as a a big white flag on the Reddick offer. I can’t see a team well over the cap and into the luxury tax going in deeper to carry both Q and JJ to play the same role.
The Bulls ESPN Chicago blogger makes a pretty good argument for the Bulls targeting Matt Barnes of the Magic too. If he’s expected to hold out for a long term deal with big money, who knows how realistic it is he’d get it, I’m not sure I want the Bulls to go to crazy tying up their cap room with deals for Rose and Noah expected in a couple years but he does sound like an awfully nice fit for them and provides toughness and defense they might lack with Boozer and Deng at the Forward spots. Plus it hurts one of the Bulls Eastern rivals further, though Barnes is probably leaving Orlando one way or another.
Quite a bit of wondering going on with regards to Brad Miller too. I’m not that high on him and last year he really wasn’t as productive as his numbers indicate, but the Bulls will need another Center to help out if (when?) Noah gets hurt again and needs a rest. Personally I’d prefer a better defender and banger in that role, but perhaps the Bulls want a offensive center to contrast Noah so they can play matchups and go inside when Rose is resting.
I have a question on restricted free agents. As I understand it, restricted FA’s can be offered a deal by another team, but their current team has the option to match the offer. Usually, articles talk like the FA’s will stay with their current team. But couldn’t the FA decide to take the other team’s offer anyways? After all, it’s the same money, so why not?
No promises as to the information’s validity, but this site seems to answer your question on restricted free agency, as well as having a lot of other info on NBA labor economics. See also Question 37 at that site. Their answer to your question is that
So if the original team matches, that’s it, the player must play for the original team.
On the Heat: From the News and Notes tab of Yahoo’s profile of Mike Miller, it claims that Miller signed a 5/30 deal with the Heat. I haven’t seen any confirmation of that. Both Wade’s and James’s twitters are claiming that Miller is coming. IMHO, the Miller deal if legit, with the Haslem deal make this team a legitimate contender to win it all going away. See, e.g., Arturo Galletti’s blog for some statistical modelling of this team, using the WP48 metric. I don’t have anywhere near the faith in winshares type numbers for basketball, that I do for baseball analysis, but a team with those 5 + Chalmers and six other replacement-level players is a monster. Even if Bosh has to play center for 44 minutes a night.
I realize Stern’s said he isn’t going to investigate the Heat for tampering with Wade/Bosh/James, but getting Miller and Haslem to agree to grossly below-market deals smells incredibly fishy. Particularly with the impending labor problems, this was likely to be the last chance for those two guys to get a significant payday. Miller’s three years older than the Rockets’s Kevin Martin and a roughly equivalent player (Miller’s a much better shooter, Martin gets to the line a lot more) Martin made $10.1 with the Rockets last year, and probably more this year. Miller hasn’t made $6 a year since 2004-05. His last three salaries were $8.3, $9.0 and $9.75. This isn’t Karl Malone/Gary Payton/Alonzo Mourning waiting 'til the last gasp to grab a ring; Miller can still light it up with the best of them, when healthy.
Something stinks.
Lastly, I’m not a big fan of the NBA, though I do like the way the Rockets seem to play hard and as a team most nights. I like the way GMs like Morey and Presti conduct their business. That said, I am not looking at all forward to a star-system driven NBA/ESPN shoving this superteam down our throats and giving these guys every halfway close call known to man. The schedule isn’t out yet, but I expect Miami to have prominent national TV slots/matchups throughout it. I find it unlikely the NBA, after elevating Miami to prominence, will allow Miami to lose.
And if that sounds like conspiracy-theorism, well dammit, when your league seems to take their marketing ideas from the WWE, employed a crooked game-fixing ref, and is responsible for some of the most inexplicably officiated series in all of sports (2002 Lakers/Kings, 2006 Heat/Mavericks), I’m going to start thinking of your sport like the WWE.
What’s fishy about it? It’s legal and it’s happened before. In this case it’s pretty much Miami’s business model: take a below-market deal and play with these guys and you’re likely to win titles. There’s no rule against that. It would be against the rules if Miami promised to give them bigger contracts later - Minnesota got nailed for doing that with Joe Smith years ago - or if they were somehow being paid under the table. But you’re talking about guys who are still going to make several million dollars a year agreeing to take a few million less. I can think of more suspicious things than Haslem agreeing to get $20 million and Miller $30 million over in five years.
Ilgauskas to the Heat too, apparently.
I’m with Gray Ghost. It’s one thing for The Duke and Bosh to give up a 6th year (which it seems they won’t be), it’s another for a player of Haslem’s caliber to leave $14 million on the table when he’s probably never going to see a big contract offer again (he’s 30 and there’s a lockout coming). What’s his angle? I’ve been a sports fan long enough to know that championships don’t mean that much to the players, especially if weighed against getting paid.
This doesn’t make sense.
Career earnings for Mike Miller: $58 million. For Udonis Haslem: $31 million.
Players are usually loathe to take paycuts for any reason, not the least of which is that when you make a lot of money you usually have a lot of expenses. But it actually is possible that these guys are just agreeing to take less money so they can win. Haslem has spent his whole career in Miami and Miller has spent his whole career on horrible teams. It’s not impossible that this is just what it looks like. And considering what the Heat did last week in the most high profile fashion imaginable, I have trouble believing that they would immediately turn around and start cheating.
If you think they’re doing something wrong you at least need to say what you think it is. I’m sure evidence would be asking too much, but this is getting kind of ridiculous.
How about Joe Smith redux? Would that be so unbelievable?
I could almost see Haslem staying with the team he’s spent his entire career with, but for $14 million? That’s just stupid.
Since I mentioned it myself, I don’t think it’s unbelievable. I don’t think it’s likely. I was saying I find it hard to believe that Miami would get the attention of the entire basketball world with its signings, and then turn around and start cheating. And not just cheating, but cheating in an obvious way that would be exactly what someone would suspect. It’s hard to see them being smart enough to sign Wade, Bosh, and LeBron, and then be dumb enough to pull a Joe Smith the following week.
Just for reference purposes, Joe Smith made $3.2 million in 1997-98. He was 24 and he’d been the first pick in the draft three years earlier. Minnesota promised him that if he signed a few one-year deals for less than he was worth, they’d given him a seven-year contract for $86 million (or up to $86 million). So he signed a one-year deal Minnesota for $1.75 million, then one year for $2.1 million, then one year for $2.25 million. Taking $6 million for three years for the promise of $86 million over seven years is a much, much bigger difference than what we’re seeing here, not to mention that Miller and Haslem will be 35 at the end of their contracts and wouldn’t have any expectation of getting a huge payday at that time.
Is it impossible? Definitely not. I’d be stupid to say it couldn’t happen. I’m just pointing out there are other potential explanations and that it’s possible this is just what it looks like. Haslem is a Heat lifer, and Miller was reported to have been really demoralized by spending the last couple of seasons on teams that were awful. He cut way, way down on the amount of threes he shot the last two years and that’s what he does for a living. Miami is almost guaranteed to win more games than the Wolves and Wizards teams he played on the last two years (53 combined).
I doubt we’d see a contract as big as Joe Smith’s, but maybe a guarantee of any contract at age 35 is attractive to Haslem and Miller. Who knows.
But at the very least, it’s fishy.
It could be another Joe Smith situation. I certainly don’t have any hard evidence one way or the other. Let me say that again: this is only conjecture and opinion.
What I think happened is that the three players got together before the free agency period—maybe the apocryphal meeting at the Olympics—and decided to play together, in Miami, since none of them wanted to continue in Toronto or Cleveland and the economics require that it be in one of those three cities. That’s fine, if unseemly. They then talked with the Heat before the free agency eligibility period and tried to make that happen. That’s tampering and uncompetitive behavior. (Further, don’t the players’ contracts prohibit this sort of behavior while they were under contract? I don’t know, I’m not staring at the text of their contracts, but it’s hard to believe that their full mind and honest services were on winning for their current team, while they were plotting to jump ship as soon as their contracts expired.)
Otherwise, you are in the position of having to believe that Riley and Heat ownership knew utterly nothing of Bosh and James coming to Miami. Yet nevertheless were going to utterly gut their franchise, get rid of and renounce everybody except Beasley (who nobody really wants, even at 5M). And furthermore, that gutting the team wouldn’t utterly alienate your star 2-guard. Even NY kept valuable pieces like Gallinari and Lee, NJ kept Lopez and Harris, etc… Pat Riley has to be the most prescient, ballsy, riverboat-gambling executive in the league. Or he already knew they were coming.
Were I Commissioner, I would having my staff look for any power to compel the Heat and those players to provide all e-mails, phone records, what have you, to try and find evidence of this plan and the Heat’s pre-opening day connivance. Of course, that’s not going to happen. Mainly, because I think that every team cheats to some degree and no one will be served by an investigation into teams’ behavior towards free agents.
As I said earlier, it stinks. As it stands, now in July, five teams realistically have any shot at the title: Miami, L.A., OKC, Chicago and Boston. (Maybe Orlando if you’re being generous) And really, I think I’m being polite to Orlando and Boston. Everyone else is shit out of luck. In July. How is that good for the league?
As to the specific contracts of Haslem and Miller, the Haslem one actually doesn’t bother me very much. I can rationalize someone taking ~25% less money to stay in one area, one environment they’re comfortable with, especially if it’s likely he’ll get another ring. Yeah, he’s leaving a lot of money on the table, but it’s vaguely understandable. The Miller contract is why I originally posted today. This guy could make, ~5/60, and I think I’m being conservative, especially given the Gay, Joe Johnson, Amir Johnson deals. Post lock-out, he will never see that money again. No cite, but one thing that has to result from a lockout is a shorter maximum term for contracts, say 3 years. I feel extremely confident in saying that no one will give Mike Miller $15 a year at age 34 or $14 a year at age 33. It’s inexplicable to me, someone giving up $30 million, half their earnings, for a very good shot at a ring. I think chicanery is a much more likely reason to explain the disparity.
Sorry for the walls of text. I’m not even really a basketball fan.
Yes, which is why they’ve been claiming that this all came together after July 1, when they were officially free agents. I think they’re full of it.
Did Mike Miller actually have a 5/$60 offer on the table? I didn’t actually look into that, but if true, that’s EXTREMELY questionable.