I doubt anyone cares about my opinion, but the point is that in a crowded field, only 1/4 of primary voters pick Bernie. When it was 2 candidates in 2016 he was getting 60% of the vote in NH.
I think that is to be expected (regardless of who it is).
As some drop out their voters will move to the remaining candidates and, by itself, says little about how they will act in the general election.
So, it looks like Pete will finish a very strong second and be leading in the pledged delegate count. Bernie with less than a 2% margin of victory…isn’t good. But it’s a win. I’ll certainly say that the Pete campaign did a great job of reaching voters all over the state, notice how the results got tighter as the smaller towns started coming in tonight.
On to NV, where I don’t think anyone has a clue what to expect.
I don’t get the Klobuchar support at all. She has zero charisma for me. Less than Hillary. Shocked Warren didn’t do better in NH. Seems like this is gonna be a Bernie vs Pete race with Amy trying to play spoiler.
Not the one asked but I think it portends trouble for him. With the moderate lane divided the space between his floor and his ceiling is enough for him to get the most votes (but not more delegates), but his ceiling may be lower than others’ are, and is not enough to get a majority of the delegates. This was his blow out state last time, winning it by a 22 point margin. Home turf.
I’d say it raises the odds of a contested convention. You need a majority, not a plurality, and of the delegates, not of the votes.
A squeaker like this is really bad for him here, in a state that he dominated by so much last time.
This is big for Mayor Pete, OK for Sanders and also pretty big for Amy Klobuchar. It is devastating for Warren. Less than 10% from a nearby state means it is close to the end.
Biden’s front-running status isn’t looking good right now coming in 5th. Plus latest polls show Bernie ahead for the head to head vs Trump and Mayor Pete coming on strong. Biden might need to bow out yet again.
Barring any surprises (very unlikely at this point), the candidates will get delegates from NH as follows:
- Sanders: 9
- Buttigieg: 9
- Klobuchar: 6 (surprise showing of the evening)
- Everyone else: 0
I was pleased to see both Bernie and Pete telling their supporters that in the end, “Vote blue, no matter who!”. Even if your favored candidate isn’t nominated, the important thing is to remove Trump from office. Don’t stay home out of pique - there is too much at stake.
Tonight, as the primary votes are being tallied, four federal prosecutors resign in what appears to be a protest again the Department of Justice reversing itself and recommending Roger Stone’s sentence be reduced. The Department of Justice is now openly (even more openly, that is) putting Trump’s interests over the rule of law and the interests of the nation. This corruption cannot stand. Vote blue, no matter who, indeed.
I may have underestimated turnout hopefully. 80% of the vote in and already about 250k people have voted. Turnout may be over 300k, which would be great since turnout in Iowa was about equal to what it was in 2016.
However supposedly some of the lower turnout was because older voters in IA stayed home for some reason. Supposedly super bowl hangovers played a role, thats the rumor at least.
Nah.
Buttigieg SUCKS when it comes to minority support. I mean, really, really, really bad. He’s got nothing there (single digits).
IIRC Sanders is showing 25%(ish) support and Biden (I forget) but double that from the black community.
Buttigieg will hit a wall. Biden will try to surge in and hope to snap up Buttigieg supporters once he crashes and burns (a good bet for Biden). It is not a bad strategy and can totally work if everything goes to plan but it is a dangerous one since Biden is giving an initial lead and momentum to an opponent.
That leaves who? Klobuchar did well tonight but I will be surprised if she can contend in then end. Warren did poorly and doesn’t look to pull it out. Bloomberg? He is all in on Super Tuesday looks like…hard to say if he can buy an election.
It’ll be an interesting race for sure.
Well, not as good a performance as I’d hoped for from Bernie, but another win, kind of.
I can’t stand Klobuchar; happy to see the moderate lane getting more crowded, though!
I’m sincerely feeling sorry for Joe Biden at this point. I didn’t want him to win, but damn, what a faceplant. I hadn’t realized he didn’t win any States in either of his earlier runs, either.
I think you mean “I”.:dubious:
Pretty much. Bernie leads with Latinos and the highly diverse “other minority” category, as well as with blacks under 35. But blacks overall are, or have been so far, solidly for Biden.
Biden is toast. He has so far had overwhelming support among moderate blacks, for a lot of reasons but the most important being that he’s perceived as the most electable. But even if he wins SC, all he’s proven is that moderate blacks still like him. And that’s not enough to win, so even they will probably abandon him by then. I feel like giving him a hug. Thanks for your service, Joe.
As far as Buttigieg, I’m hearing a lot of the same lazy thinking I heard about Bernie in 2016. “He’s not doing well with minorities right now; the only possible explanation is that all minorities hate him and will never vote for him under any circumstances”. Or, like, maybe they just like the other candidate(s) better? The moderate black vote is up for grabs with Biden fading, and there 's no law of nature that says Buttigieg can’t be the one to pick it up. yes, blacks overall are a bit more homophobic than whites, but not* that *dramatically so. It seems like that voting bloc really values experience, though, so that could give Klobuchar a leg up with them.
No shit. I didn’t realize that there hasn’t been a poll in Nevada in over a month! Things sure looked different back then…
Not trying to spin it as a better-than-OK night for Bernie, but you have to remember that independents can vote in the NH primaries. Presumably a lot of moderate and conservative independents who voted in the Republican primary last time moved over to the Dems this time.
Let’s see how that damn Buttigieg does in the States coming up, where only real Democrats get to vote!
(Why yes, I did enjoy typing that immensely, thanks for asking:D)
Warren and Klobuchar also SUCK when it comes to minority support. And Bernie doesn’t do that well either. Most minorities only support Biden, and that’s largely for irrational bullshit reasons such as (a) because he was Obama’s VP and (b) because they think white people will prefer Biden in the General. It certainly isn’t because of his record. And I, for one, am sick of hearing about how little Mayor Pete supposedly cares about minorities when Joe Biden literally spoke at Strom Thurmond’s fucking funeral!
Fortunately, Joe Biden’s brains are rapidly turning into wet sand, so it won’t be long before he drops out. When that happens, the minorities are going to have to find someone new. Who’s to say a sizeable number won’t line up behind Buttigieg? Stranger things have happened.
Yes Buttigieg’s path from here is harsh. And Sanders has good support among younger Black voters already. Less young ones (who more reliably vote)? Not so much so, and they tend to be positioned more to the Center. Not sure what they do in Nevada and South Carolina, but Bloomberg seems to be winning them over.
No one is “buying” their support btw. But without a doubt competing from here is a big money game.
Color me confused.
I thought part of Sanders appeal was an alleged bringing in those not who are not “real” Democrats?
I don’t think Buttigieg does as well in the next two states, and Klobuchar maybe the moderate flavor of the week until Super Tuesday. Whether of not Bloomberg becomes the centrist voice then remains to be seen, partly depending on whether or not Klobuchar can come up with decent new ways to express her messaging, and how much people are attracted to Bloomberg’s pitch.
So… Trump for four more years, then?
No, no he doesn’t. Sanders is going to beat him. Sanders has to beat him. If not Sanders, then Mayor Pete.