New Hampshire Primary Discussion

(to ShadowFacts): We anti-Trumpers do sometimes also repeat awful things Trump has said, as part of a discussion. But I hear you. I’ll drop it.

Really? Is Amy a woman? Maybe if she mentioned it a few more times.

Yeah I’ve heard enough about her parents working in mines and saving money in coffee cans. I’ve heard her tell these same damn stories every time she gets at a mic. It’s tiresome.

To be fair, that’s how these things always go: “Thanks to the campaign workers, family, etc” followed by your standard stump speech.

If you have actually heard an Amy Klobuchar stump speech before tonight you are likely in a very small minority. There are many, many voters that haven’t heard those stories before (perhaps DSeid is one).

Not stump speeches; I’ve heard her tell those stories in the debates. Repeatedly.

Most of America has not Lamoral. They paid no attention to her at all. Yeah she’ll need fresh material from here.

FWIW her start was stronger before she fell into her more well worn schtick.

And, it was funny seeing how offended Warren’s Twitter warriors were when Pete was talking about cornfields and playing up the Midwest. My guess is that it’ll be crickets with Amy.

My oh my, Bernie only up 2%. Who knew Pete was this strong.

I’m baffled to see, on the ticker at the bottom of the screen (CBS), “DEVAL PATRICK TO SUSPEND CAMPAIGN TOMORROW.” I was completely unaware that he was running. I know who he is; I’ve seen and heard his name before. But if he was campaigning this whole time, damn, he really didn’t do a good job of it.

He was essentially recruited by deep pocket donors to try to slow down Bernie if Joe faded. Turns out they both couldn’t get traction.

He announced really, really late and just never got any traction.

The scuttlebutt seems to be that Buttigieg has zero support among minorities. Buttigieg does well in predominantly white states (Iowa and New Hampshire).

Sanders is weak among black voters too although nowhere near as weak as Buttigieg seems to be (Buttigieg has almost no support at all there). Biden is light years ahead of both of them among black voters which seems to be why Biden seems to be putting all his eggs into South Carolina, the first state with a substantial black population, and has mostly given up on these first few elections.

So, I expect Buttigieg’s campaign to hit a hard wall and Biden to substantially improve. If Buttigieg goes down a lot of his voters will probably go to Biden. I suspect this is the Biden camp’s plan/hope.

Sanders will keep cruising through the middle doing pretty good but not great. Warren looks like she can’t get enough going. Klobuchar…seems a reach but maybe she can dark horse it. Not good odds though.

It’s very bothersome to me that the white vote and the minority vote are so split. It doesn’t bode well at all for the general election.

Bernie is going to win this state, but just barely. Its pretty much a 3 way tie.

I wonder what that fortells about his chances of winning the primary or winning the general election. he has only won 26% of the vote in the first 2 primaries. Granted, that is equal to or better than everyone else, but still.

I wonder if turnout will go up. 250k people voted in the 2016 NH dem primary.

I’m guessing (and I could be totally wrong) that they are on track for closer to 280k based on how many people have voted so far when 71% of the vote has turned in.

Has the minority vote even really come into play yet? IA & NH are pretty white states.

Also which minority group? Are blacks going in one direction, latinos another, then whites a 3rd direction?

Paywalled here on Firefox Win, but thanks for the tip.

NYT.

I have uBlock Origin and Privacy Badger on my Firefox browser and a cookie killer (deletes cookies when tabs are closed so they cannot count how many times you vitisted, among other things).

I have no idea is that is what does it. I get hit-and-miss results with them.

I am curious what you think it foretells about everyone’s chances who have done worse to win the primary?

How long will Gabbard and Steyer last before they drop out?