NFL 2021: Divisional Round / Week Twenty Questions

Looks like the Bears and Packers both won zero playoff games this year. :slight_smile:

I’m not a 49ers fan, but gotta love Gould. No double doinks from him. That dude is solid. Why the Bears ever let him go is beyond me.

My suspicion is that the difference in performance between an above-average kicker (or punter) and an average one is perceived by many GMs to not be that big, and when an above-average kicker’s contract reaches a certain size, some GMs decide to save a few million, and settle for an average kicker.

The issue is, it seems like it usually turns out that the guy who replaces the above-average guy turns out to be terrible.

Tell me about it …

That logic is insane, considering even a below-average kicker is still far and away the highest scoring player on your team. They are absolutely NOT interchangeable, and any competent GM should know this.

Looking at the yearly stats, the difference between a season’s top kicker and bottom kicker, given the same number of games played, is about 50-60 points on average, which is a pretty huge amount (top kickers average in the 140-160 points/year range).

Points scored may not be the best measure of a kicker’s value, as point output alone for a kicker is dependent on a lot of things, may of which aren’t in the kicker’s control, and kickers who attempt a lot of field goals are likely doing so because their team’s offense isn’t scoring touchdowns, not because of any particular talent of the kicker.

Speaking as someone who was (briefly) a kicker in high school, and who has followed the kicking game ever since, the big measures for kicker success/value are:

  • Field goal success percentage – in the modern NFL, a good kicker needs to be making 85+% of his field goals, especially those under 50 yards
  • Extra point percentage – now that extra points are longer, the league average has dropped from 99+% to about 95%; a good kicker is making that 95+%
  • Opponent field position after kickoffs, and percent of kickoffs that are touchbacks

Too late to add/expound:

In any given season, there are probably five or six placekickers who are truly excellent – this past year, that’d be guys like Justin Tucker (Ravens), Matt Gay (Rams), Younghoe Koo (Falcons), and a few others. There are about another 20 kickers who are average to a bit above-average. And, there are always five or six teams who struggle with kicking, and may go through a couple of kickers over the course of the season.

An excellent kicker, versus an average kicker, is worth a few additional successful field goals and/or extra points a season, and a bit of field position. The average kickers are still making such a high percentage of their kicks that they can generally be relied upon to do their jobs, even in clutch situations.

Some GMs, especially those who are hard up against the salary cap, sometimes decide that the extra couple of million for their top-tier kicker (especially if his contract is up) may be a luxury, and that they can get away with an “average” kicker. As noted, that has a very real risk of blowing up in their faces.

That’s interesting about the kicking game, but stats aside, as many field goals and extra points are inconsequential to the end result of the game, it’s the kicker who can make clutch scores, like decisive field goals and extra points, in high-pressure situations, that really matter. Gould proved he can be one of them tonight.

As for the 49ers, their defense kept them in the game, and Garoppolo’s play wasn’t bad enough to lose them the game.

Definitely agreed on both counts; Gould has been an excellent kicker throughout his career.

The truly excellent ones (like a Justin Tucker today, and, in years past, guys like Adam Vinatieri and Morten Andersen) have that clutch ability. And, yet, even that level of kicker can wind up not being offered a new contract – the Patriots let Vinatieri walk (he went on to kick for the Colts for another fourteen seasons), and Andersen played for five different teams.

I’m just gonna share this…

Not a big NFL guy, just wanted to pop in here and say I’m thrilled Qaaron Rodgers lost his shot.

From the NFL meme tweeter thread:

Another COVID symptom:

CHOKING

Yes, in general I am normally rooting for GB: I like their ownership model, I like that they are anachronistically located in the middle of nowhere (<-hyperbole), and I have some friends who are big fans.

But no more, not with Antivax Aaron as the face of the franchise. Delighted he lost, delighted he got sacked so much, and I hope he leaves GB in ignominy and goes to play (poorly) for a team I already don’t like, so I can get back to enjoying the Pack.

I love the unexpected moments, like when the player fumbled the ball and the opponent took it in for a touchdown. Today I have horses in the race and am hoping for the Buccs and more so, the Chiefs to win

Bye bye, Titans!

Bye bye, Karen Rodgers!

Oh frabjous day!

Aaron Rodgers’ playoff run thwarted by snowflakes, cancel culture strikes again! :smiley: The punt-return turnover was the biggest nail. What a game!

I’m picking Bils and B-B-B Brady and the Bucs.

Taking off helmet penalty. The ol’ Michael Westbrook special!

I see Ndamukong Suh is still as much of a hothead as he was when he played for the Lions. In just the last 10-15 minutes of the Rams-Bucs game he’s gotten penalties for taunting and for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Yeah, WTF with the dopey penalties? Plus, zero offense from Brady and the Bucs. Dropped passes lose games!

Unsportsmanlike conduct on Tom Brady!

First of his career. I really wonder what he said to Ed Hochuli, the head official.

Just a guess…