Nfl draft 2018

The Game Room
141

Even in the sports forum, this is still the Straight Dope and most of what I have read in this thread about Baker Mayfield is complete ignorance. I am fairly close to the OU Football program and while I don’t know Baker personally, I know a lot of people who do.

There is no chance that Baker will be a “cancer” in the locker room. When he walked on to OU, he had to sit out a year due to the “transfer” from Texas Tech. He was the team’s biggest cheerleader and a locker room favorite before he was anything close to a “BMOC”. Lincoln Riley just made the statement that Baker can “transform” a team. He says that from his experience of how Baker’s leadership impacted the Sooners. Baker is fiery, competitive and brash on the field. Which his teammates love and his opponents hate. Off the field, he is the guy who came to my friend’s daughter’s school especially to come say hi to her because she’d been bullied.

There is no comparison to Manziel that is fair to Mayfield. Mayfield walked on twice. Both times earning the starting job from scholarship QBs. He was never handed anything on a silver platter. The kid is a winner and the Browns are lucky to have him.

142

I know the Browns are in desperate need of a CB, but this draft is deep at corner and there would have been a good one in the 2nd round. I would have rather taken Chubb at #4, seeing as how Barkley was gone.

And honestly, I’m ok with taking Mayfield at #1. I like him better than Allen, Rosen or Darnold and they absolutely had to take their top QB target with that pick.

143

You may be right about him. But we can’t pretend there are no red flags surrounding Mayfield. On the field, he’s … let’s say passionate. That doesn’t always work in your favor in the NFL, especially at the QB position. While it’s great to stir up your college teammates, who are all at the same point in life, it might not fly in an NFL locker room where you have older vets, guys with kids, and egos. The dick swinging, look at me stuff is fine when you’re a 20 year old BMOC, not so much in the pros.

You also have the off the field stuff. Arrests are never a good thing, and they rarely happen on the first time. Something like public intox, possession of personal use amounts of marijuana, or little stuff like that aren’t a big deal, but the whole refusing to listen to police officers, shouting and making a scene, and taking off do raise issues about his maturity and ability to deal with limits.

But I don’t know Baker. I haven’t done the homework, had the interviews, or know if he’s actually mentally ready to become a professional. Maybe he’ll eventually mature like Favre did once he had been in Green Bay for awhile. Or maybe he’ll flame out like Ryan Leaf and Manziel. Nobody knows for sure. You can certainly conclude he won’t flame out, but lets not pretend there aren’t valid reasons to be concerned.

144

The facts don’t agree with this assessment.

Baker didn’t refuse to listen to officers, shout or make a scene. Baker was intoxicated (over 21) and was questioned about an incident he was near, but not involved in. He “ran” from the cops by slowly jogging away. I can’t speak to what he was thinking, but to me it was a case of “I’m not involved in this and I’m heading back to my friends” which the police obviously did not agree with. Dumb mistake which he owned up to immediately and there’s never been a whiff of another legal issue before or since.

The only questions about his work ethic or maturity are the snap judgments of people who didn’t like the flag plant and the crotch grab. I don’t believe there’s any chance he will be a Leaf or Manziel. My only fear is that his physical style of play could get him injured.

Anyone in a position to get to know Baker has shown no issue with him. From Lincoln Riley and Bob Stoops to Kirk Herbstreit and NFL teams, the people with actual knowledge all love the guy.

145

"“While talking to the other party involved, Mayfield was yelling profanities and was causing a scene.”

""I told Mayfield to come over to me. When I gave that command, he began to walk away from me. I repeatedly told him to stop. Mayfield then began to sprint away. I chased after him. Mayfield was tackled to the ground.”

Quotes from the police report of the arrest

As do you. Which you are welcome to. You’re free to spin all the facts and explanations any way you like.

And you may absolutely be right, I actually hope you are. I’m a fan of Mayfield’s play, I think he’ll do darn well in the NFL, heck, I made him a “my guy”. But accusing other posters of being ignorant, declaring there is no chance he’ll be a problem, and spinning the facts isn’t the best way to show your fandom.

146

That’s literally what everyone said about Manziel. Might be true, but everyone in Norman has a vested interest in making him look as squeaky clean as possible.

147

Fiery, outgoing and emotional QB with a physical playing style who rubs people the wrong way outside the locker room but is loved within it? Sounds a lot like Cam Newton. That’s not the worst QB to resemble.

148

You must be on his PR team…honestly can’t take you seriously with this stuff.

149

I’m summarizing quotes made in this forum. I know little about Mayfield myself. I think you need to chill out a bit.

150

I loved the way Gutekunst, the Packers GM, ran the draft in the first round. Basically, he picked up a first round draft pick next year for a third round this year and moving down 4 spots. Great moves, and gives me hope he knows how to run a draft.

I’m just not sold on Alexander as the guy. He’s certainly got a high ceiling, and was pretty special for parts of 2016 and his limited 2017, but I’m always leery of guys who make their draft bones at the combine. He’s a bit too short and slim for my liking, isn’t an impressive tackler, and gambles way too much. But it seems like he’s got a good “football IQ” and could sniff out a lot of the plays coming his direction, especially college playcalling. He’s also got great speed, good hands, and may have value as a punt returner, all things I really like. I kinda like his enthusiasm (his reaction when his teammate Lamar Jackson got drafted was fun) and he’s certainly confident, but he also carries a huge injury risk (missed half the year this year with hand and leg injuries).

Overall, I love his upside, but he’s plenty risky and I don’t see him being a shutdown kind of CB against bigger, stronger receivers. As with all things, we will see.

151

Here’s the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkrwHhn2i6o

I am glad you linked the report. It corrected me that he “yelled profanities” and caused a scene. Of course, that was the statement of the other party who had been fighting someone else (the police didn’t hear this, they heard about it). Also, you’ve taken it out of context. HE broke up a fight. HE flagged down the officers. Was he drunk, yes (it was his birthday celebration BTW). Was it stupid to move away from officers, sure (even though they said “sprint” when he clearly wasn’t). Still, it was a case of wrong place at wrong time, not a troublemaker.

This is my last point. I’m not looking to defend Baker’s honor, just pointing out that people have an opinion on him from sensationalized reporting, not who he is. The few negative items on the guy are all completely blown out of proportion.

152

I think we’re pretty much in agreement.

That’s why I question taking Saquon. He’d be a nice pickup for an offense that was already top-notch. He’s not a great acquisition for a bad team… which is what I think the Giants are.

I think Eli has been declining for several years and is well below average now. The Giants rarely draft in the #2 spot overall, which meant this would have been a great time to start building anew, with a new quarterback (among many other things).

I hope the Giants aren’t as bad as I fear. But Saquon is likely to take a beating behind a line that isn’t opening any holes for him.

153

Because I had a bit of free time today, and because I’m weird, I thought I’d check out how I’ve done at this in the past. I picked the 2012 draft (seemed like enough time had gone by to judge it. I checked out 2013, but there were still some question marks about guys). It was interesting to see what I got right (I still love me some Kirk Cousins!), what I got wrong (who the fuck is Ronnell Lewis?), and how it turned out.

Here is the list of “my guys” from the 2012 draft.

1st Round

Andrew Luck

Luke Kuechly

I was right about both. While Luck hasnt become elite, mostly due to injury, he was still worth the #1 pick in the draft. Kuechly is one of, in not the, best linebacker in the NFL.

2nd Round

Coby Fleener – Was drafted in the 2nd, and is kinda/sorta a good TE, but not great. Bad value in the 2nd.

Jared Crick – Fell all the way to the 4th round. Was a pretty good starter for a couple years with the Texans, but struggled with the Broncos (still started) last year, got injured, and is a free agent now. Definitely not worth a second rounder.

Lavonte David – Nailed it. Was drafted in the second round and been a starter his entire career. Made a ProBowl and has been a much better than average linebacker.

Kendall Reyes – Drafted in the 2nd round was a starter for 3 years with the Chargers, but wasn’t very good. Journeyman since then.

Lamar Miller – Showed flashes with a couple 1000 yard seasons, but seriously misused as an every down back. Was likely worth the 4th round where he was picked, but my 2nd would be a tad too high.

Mohammed Sanu – Drafted in third round, he’s what I said he would be, a solid #2 WR. Pretty good value.

3rd Round

Ronnell Lewis – 4th rounder who is out of the NFL. I was wrong.

Kirk Cousins – Finally, a pick I can be proud of. I praised the hell out of Washington’s professional football team when they got him in the 4th round and he’s proven to be a solid starter. Great value, and great pick.

Russell Wilson – Fuck yeah, I’m killing it.

Mike Martin – Selected in the 3rd round, he was a backup and is now out of football. Big meh.

4th Round

Josh Norman – Nailed another one. Was drafted in the 5th round and developed into a probowl CB. I’m on a roll.

Tom Compton – Drafted in the 6th round, he’s been a backup G most of his career. Now on the Vikings.

Ryan Broyles – Was way overdrafted by the Lions in the second round and quickly flamed out.

Adam Gettis – signed by 6 different teams, he’s nothing more than a backup/warm body. Luckily no team needs to start a Compton/Gettis combo at guard.

Senio Kelemete – The versatile (played every position on the offensive line) primary backup for the Saints. Signed a nice free agent deal with the Raiders in the offseason. Worth the 4th rounder.

Brandon Taylor – drafted in the 3rd round he blew out his knee in his first season and didn’t play again. Give him an incomplete.

6th Round

Dale Moss – Wasn’t drafted. For apparently good reason, because he never started a game in the NFL.

Dennis Kelly – Drafted in the 5th round, he’s been a backup lineman for the Eagles and now the Titans. Good value, even is he’s not always starting.

7th Round

John Brantley – Another undrafted guy who got cut before playing a down.
Cliff Harris – Undrafted head case got cut after being arrested with pot.

The guys I hated like Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, and Mike Adams were all good calls. I hated Janoris Jenkins, but he’s really developed into a good, if inconsistent, CB. I thought Dontari Poe was horribly overdrafted, and he’s been a starter with 3 teams since then, and even made a probowl. I’m not sure he was worth the #10 pick (especially with Fletcher Cox on the board), but whatever. I also hated Ryan Tannehill going in the first round. He’s started a ton of games for the Dolphins (again, he was drafted in the first round, so of course) until he was injured last year. He’s never been great, sometimes been good, and mostly just average as the team continues to put him out there and hope he develops.

Overall, I’m pretty happy with how I did. I knocked it out of the park with Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Lavonte David, and Josh Norman. I was wrong about Jenkins, Crick, Reyes, Lewis and others. I was mostly right on some too like Luck and Kuechly. It was interesting to go back and see how I did.

How’d you guys do?

154

I think he must have something on Jon Schneider. Seahawks fans should be storming the gates over that move.

155

I think I could probably find almost the exact same analysis of the Zeke pick last year.

156

And now we prepare for the tradition of the Lions Second round Pick

Will they
A. Pick a guy who just isn’t very good, but has the calculated minimum of meaningless flashes of brilliance to keep hope of growth alive, and suck up a roster spot for years?
B. Pick a guy who just can’t stay healthy, but has the calculated minimum of meaningless flashes of consistency to keep hope of contributing alive, and suck up a roster spot for years?
C. Pick an epic head case?
D. All of the above?

157

Dallas has consistently had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Giants … not so much.

158

I think I overestimated them a bit just to avoid provoking an argument over just how bad the Giants might be. But teams don’t usually repeat in the top 5 from year to year - there’s enough noise that a team that’s #2 this year are likely to be #8 next year without any improvement. Having a shot at a top QB prospect without paying a lot in a trade is not something you can rely on happening next year.

I don’t really think this is the way it’ll go. People are already way down on Allen because he’s so obviously the prototypical arm strength above all else pick. Think about the flak that the Raiders get for Jamarcus Russell. I’ve heard a lot of “lol Browns are going Allen because it’d be the dumbest thing to do”

So if Allen flames out because he’s exactly what he looks like - a guy with a big arm who isn’t accurate and doesn’t tend to win games - it would’ve been a much bigger joke than one of the best QBs in college football history failing. Of course being taken at #7 instead of #1 will lessen the impact of that, but I don’t see Mayfield or Rosen becoming “wtf would you even draft that guy” jokes like Jamarcus Russell was.

I think it’s assuming a lot to think that the reason his teammates love him is only because he’s a cocky frat boy dickhead. Good leaders do what they need to do to inspire their men, and in college that can definitely look like what you describe, but it could simply be that he’s good at getting people want to play hard for him. Pretty much everyone who has played with him agrees that he’s the sort of guy that inspires that.

And really, the Browns need something like that. They need a culture change. They need a guy who refuses to lose, who can rally the team, who can shake the loser mentality. I’m starting to think that besides his exemplary production, that Dorsey thinks Mayfield can be the guy who starts the culture change, and as such, he has a ceiling to affect the team that’s greater than just strictly his ability as a player. At least that’s what I hope.

Edit: Not that you said this, but I also find the Manziel comparisons off-base. The only real trait they share is supreme confidence. Manziel didn’t fail because he bragged too much or had too much swagger - he failed because he wasn’t a hard worker, he had a drinking problem, and was generally a dipshit. He came from a rich family and got to the big sports star from the very start and had a sense of entitlement.

Mayfield was a walk on - twice - and had to work his ass off to get where he is. He’s the sort of guy who has total commitment to the game. And there’s nothing to suggest he has critical personal failings like drug problems. His character flaws are way overblown.

159

I’m excited to see who the Browns take with their Brock Osweiler pick. It still amuses me that a team had to give up a draft pick to get someone to take a player off their hands.

160

I’m probably the oldest Browns fan here, from back in the 50s.

Mayfield was a great pick. A leader, smart on the field and in the classroom, sees and can analyze plays well, and he recognizes his mistakes. Raised Oklahoma from a fringe top 25 team to top 5 team. Jackson was the only other one who raised his team with his play, at the national contender level. It’s the smart on the field part that sold me. Can he read defenses, can he learn the subtleties of the QB position (looking off receivers, audibles, leading into catches, etc…)? I think so. I also liked Darnold and his response to getting selected later. Maybe not the most demonstrative guy but that shows me he burns inside. Jackson was a great pickup by the Ravens. I expect him to replace Flaco who is past his due date.

Height, arm strength, and other so-called predictors are BS. Heart and smarts make the player. Smarts, not intelligence. Baker smart enough to learn. Drew Brees was tossed around, Wilson was passed over by 31 teams multiple times. QB evaluators are crap (me included).

The two early picks in the 2nd round are key. I’d go with Landry then Hernandez. Landry has the pass rush skills as a package player. Hernandez is solid day one starter. If Hernandez gets taken by the Giants, go with Daniels - smart centers can play anywhere in the interior OL. For the bonus pick at the end of rnd2, I’d take a flier on Griffin at linebacker. I like guys with something to prove. One hand is a great handicap that he has overcome - now it’s just beating the “geniuses” who evaluate talent.