NFL draft 2024!

The Game Room
81

If you’ve been consuming any post-draft content or reactions the last couple days you’ve probably heard every single criticism of the Falcon’s picking Penix. I’d like to indulge in a quick thought experiment with you.

How would you have reacted if the following alternate reality took place? The Minnesota Vikings decided to extend Kirk Cousins for the same 4-year, $180M contract with the same $90M guaranteed over the first two years at the start of free agency. Then they traded up from the 11th pick to the 10th pick (or the 8th) and drafted Michael Penix Jr.

Would this create the same degree of head-smacking and derision?

82

Just so I follow your hypothetical, you’re asking if slightly less money and a different team for the contract changes anything in the evaluation?

83

I really don’t have a problem with the pick. Cousins will be 36 at the start of next season. He has 1 playoff victory to his name, 5 years ago. He’s been remarkably durable throughout his career and puts up consistent numbers but that’s not going to last forever, probably not through his entire 4-year contract.

Penix is a kid they liked a lot, and I believe in sitting QBs a year or two, but apparently you’re not allowed to do that anymore, not with high 1st round picks.

84

Patriots draft review by someone totally unqualified to do it:

Round 1 - Drake Maye (QB)
Round 2 - Ja’Lynn Polk (WR)
Round 3 - Caeden Wallace (T)
Round 4 - Layden Robinson (G)
Round 4 - Javon Baker (WR)
Round 6 - Marcellas Dial (CB)
Round 6 - Joe Milton (QB)
Round 7 - Jaheim Bell (TE)

On paper, all but one of these selections addresses significant areas of need for the Pats, most especially QB, offensive weapons, and OL help. So yay for not wasting mid-range picks on dedicated special teams players, a Belichick specialty. I also like doubling up on their three biggest areas of need. Seems like a solid strategy, given that the defense last year was top notch and they don’t have a lot of holes there. Will any of these players be any good? Should they have taken others instead? Who the hell knows - time will tell.

I hope they sit Maye completely next year, let Jacoby Brissett play while Maye learns the offense and all the new coaches get settled.

85

Yes, though a fair amount of that would be residual mocking of the Vikings for seemingly screwing SOMEthing up every year.

I don’t think drafting a R1 QB when you have a perfectly serviceable (and aging) one is unreasonable. I think the Falcons vastly overspent on Penix after vastly overspending on Cousins.

86

No, I just quoted Kirk’s contract details from memory. He had $90M guaranteed at signing but $100M total guaranteed. In the hypothetical it’s the same deal.

87

I’m not that familiar with several of the Pats picks, but I’m very familiar with Maye, Polk, Baker and Milton. Of those, I love the first 3. Like many I had Maye as the 2nd best QB prospect and getting him at 3 and not trading back was a very good decision. Now, if they’d have traded back with the Vikings and then still landed McCarthy at 10 or 11, that might end up being better in the long run, but that’s more of a gamble. That said, the rumored Vikings offer was pretty hard to turn down.

Polk I think is going to be a solid contributor, but most people had him going in the 3rd round so that pick might be a reach. Yet a lot of WRs went off the board at the top of the round so it’s tough to really criticize that. Similarly, Baker in the 4th is a potential steal. I had him as this year’s Puka upthread, so I obviously love that pick. And that’s a lot of help for Maye. A passing built around 3 rookies is going to be tough to sustain, but on paper I like it.

Milton is a weird one, but we always talk about the wisdom of adding late round QBs with upside as the best strategy. So it’s totally rational. I really don’t think Milton can ever be an NFL QB, not even of say Justin Fields caliber, but it’s a 6th round flier. It’s certainly not a bad idea.

Adding a couple OLs in the 3rd and 4th round is obviously good sense, but I have no idea if either of these guys can play. This class was loaded at OL in the first couple rounds, maybe you could argue they should have grabbed a higher upside guy in the second instead of Polk and hoped for more WR in the 3rd or 4th., but that requires hindsight.

88

The pundits that have to fill up airtime or bandwidth love saying this is the stupidest move of all time. How dare they say that in a world that has Jamarcus Russell and Johnny Manzel. I like Penix as a player. I saw him a lot last year. I think it’s pretty clear he has the strongest arm of any of the quarterbacks this year. That’s something that can’t be taught. As I heard one coach say any of his perceived deficiencies or things that can be worked on. In the long run, he may prove to be the best of the bunch.

You have an aging quarterback coming off major surgery. You’re not getting Marino in his prime where even an old Tom Brady. You’re getting a quarterback nobody thinks is elite and you have him for two years. Who knows, he might do a Rodgers on the first play. Having your next quarterback on the bench is a damn good idea that most teams can’t afford to do. It’s a valid question if they paid too much for Cousins. They also certainly have a lot of other needs. I don’t think the picking of Penix is going to be the worst part of this move.

Cousins needs to grow the fuck up. They are paying you generational wealth in your old football age. Take your money and play well enough to keep the clipboard in his hands.

89

There’s a huge difference between getting the evaluation wrong and getting the tactics wrong.

If you have serious doubts about Cousins’ health and ability to perform into his late 30s, then signing him to that massive contract is aggressively dumb. If you loved Penix and view him as the most NFL ready of the QBs (and because of his age, you’d better) you knew you could get him. So why sign Cousins? If you signed Cousins and then fell in love with Penix late in the process, well that’s a massive indictment of your process. Penix’s tape was readily available, and you pay scouts to watch it.

I’m a firm believer in over-investing in QB. But there’s still a right way to do it and a wrong way. Signing an old and injured expensive veteran is a gamble. Signing an old and injured prospect who is also expensive for a backup is also a gamble. Both guys have a running clock on them and their timelines are in direct contrast.

Even if Penix is incredible and the best QB prospect in this draft, all that would accomplish is putting the Falcons in the same position the Broncos are now with an unwanted veteran QB with an albatross contract and/or dead cap. Penix would to be out there playing with a roster devoid of depth, with holes on the OL and defense.

90

I think Cousins’ concern is more about building the best team and less about competition for his spot. What makes the Falcons a better team for the next couple of years - another QB, or a WR like Odunze? I think Cousins is rightfully frustrated to see the team spend big on him and then squander the opportunity to give him some good players around him.

91

No other position comes close to the importance of having the right quarterback. It’s only been a few months, does no one remember who won the Superbowl this year? In two years where will they be in the draft? How good will the draft class be?

92

I was going to say that the Chiefs didn’t spend their first round pick last year on a QB to ride the bench, but instead spent it on a player who could contribute to winning a Superbowl. But then I looked up who they drafted and it turns out that guy pretty much did ride the bench all season:

Even still, it’s an understandable frustration.

93

The Chiefs have a 28 year old star QB not a 36 year old with a new Achilles.

94

The Chiefs also drafted that QB at a time when Alex Smith was doing a pretty solid Kirk Cousins impersonation, and many KC fans were scratching their heads why they’d trade up to take a backup, and then to not take Deshaun Watson.

95

It was not a shock that the Chiefs took a QB. Smith was approaching the last year of his deal, and a youth movement was expected. No team has ever done anything like what the Falcons did.

Here’s a fun blast from the past if you want evidence.

Hilariously, the only comp I can think of is the Bears signing Mike Glennon to a 3-year deal in the same offseason they drafted Trubisky. So that’s a model to follow I guess.

96

It was a massive shock - the Chiefs hadn’t taken a first round QB since 1983.

97

Packer’s Draft Review:

Round 1, Pick 25 overall: Jordan Morgan, offensive tackle, Arizona
Round 2, Pick 45 overall: Edgerrin Cooper, linebacker, Texas A&M
Round 2, Pick 58 overall: Javon Bullard, defensive back, Georgia
Round 3, Pick 88 overall: MarShawn Lloyd, running back, USC
Round 3, Pick 91 overall: Ty’Ron Hopper, linebacker, Missouri
Round 4, Pick 111 overall: Evan Williams, safety, Oregon
Round 5, Pick 163 overall: Jacob Monk, center, Duke
Round 5, Pick 169 overall: Kitan Oladapo, safety, Washington State
Round 6, Pick 202 overall: Travis Glover, offensive tackle, Georgia State
Round 7, Pick 245 overall: Michael Pratt, quarterback, Tulane
Round 7, Pick 255 overall: Kalen King, cornerback, Penn State

What I loved: I was thrilled with the second round, where the Packers filled two desperate needs with OK value picks. Edgerrin Cooper was the #1 LB on a lot of boards and #46 on the consensus big board. And Javon Bullard was the #2 Safety, and came in at 59 on the consensus big board. Two huge holes filled well at value, not much more you can ask for.

I also loved getting Michael Pratt in the 7th round. I (and anyone who watched his college tape) hated the Packers current backup QB (Sean Clifford) and I’m on board always drafting a QB every year, and he was great value (119 consensus big board). Hopefully the Packers have their new backup for Jordan Love.

What I hated: Hopper and Williams were incredible reaches and both were the second taken by the Packers at their position. Williams was almost a wasted pick, because the Packers ended up taking 3 safeties (because Oladapo was a great value at 169 and is a better player), and selecting Hopper over Payton Wilson will piss me off until the day I die.

I also hate the lack of more help on the offensive line. Even after watching some tape, I’m not a fan of Glover, I’m ambivalant about Monk, and I’m cautiously optimistic (but unconvinced about value) of Morgan. There was a lot of talented O linemen available instead of wasting the 91st and 111th picks.

Overall: Gutey has done a fairly good job of drafting, and there weren’t a lot of holes on the roster, so I’m going to trust his judgment on Morgan and Monk. I like their process, their selections, and their depth. All in all, I’m happy with the draft, but there are still holes and dumb decisions. But I’m actually pretty excited about having Marshawn Lloyd on the Packers. I’m not a fan of Josh Jacobs, and I’ve seen more than I will ever need to of AJ Dillon, so grabbing a RB was good, and I liked Lloyd’s tape (although he needs to do better in pass pro). And he was average value (his draft pick was exactly his consensus board number). All in all, a pretty good haul. No great values, some reaches, but I trust Gutey.

But, as always, we will see.

98

Random draft thought:

I gotta admire the set of reproductive organs on Ryan Poles (Bears GM). After finishing as the worst team in 2022, and the 9th worst last year, he declared that he wasn’t worried about the Bears not having many draft picks because it will be hard to make the Bears roster because they’re so good. He then decides to flex and draft a fucking punter in the 4th round. He’s certainly got the Bears’ fans in a tizzy, and they’ll be the hip/cool team to pick to greatly improve this year.

As far as the 2024 Bears draft goes, Poles gets kudos for … not being a fucking idiot. After making the most obvious trade last year and getting a gift that keeps on giving from the Panthers, Poles does the chalk thing with his two top 10 picks and gets his franchise QB and my favorite WR not named Marvin Harrison Jr. So let’s not pretend he’s some kind of genius for not fucking up a fantastic situation.

99

I agree with you.

Note that the team I root for (Seattle) has a perfectly serviceable (Pro Bowl the past 2 years) and aging (33 years old) quarterback, and was reportedly trying to trade up to get Penix. (Though I don’t think they’re overpaying Geno at all.)

But Seattle is also in the unique position where their brand new OC was Penix’s OC the last couple of years at UW. I’m sure that had something to do with it.

Seattle also had very little draft capital left this year to try to make a deal to move up.

100

I missed that quote, but assuming he said it…yeah, not a good look.

Quick Bears roster review.

QB: Williams, Bagent, Rypien
We’ll see what the depth chart shakes out as, but this is a really young but serviceable group. Assuming Williams isn’t a dumpster fire, we’re good here.

RB: Swift, Herbert, Johnson, Homer
Pretty solid group. Unspectacular but I expect we have the requisite depth for the position. I expect another couple bodies to be in camp and it will be good to find a guy with PR/KR chops here.

WR: Moore, Allen, Odunze, Scott, Pettis, Jones Jr, Johnson, Webster
This is the first real problem area. The first 3 are obviously unimpeachable, but we’re razor thin at the position. Scott wasn’t good as a rookie, Jones and Webster probably should be bagging groceries. I kind of like Pettis and Johnson, but not as WR4/5, more like WR6/7. Definitely wish we’d had a couple extra mid-round picks to get a guy like Javon Baker.

TE: Kmet, Everett, Carlson
Solidly middle of the pack. But Kmet and Everett are 2-way guys, we don’t have an elite blocker or pass catcher. So might have been nice to draft an athlete like Tip Reimann or comparable in the middle rounds.

OL: Jones, Wright, Jenkins, Davis, Bates, Shelton, Borom, Carter, Amegadjie, Pryor, Curhan, Kramer, Murray, Carvin
A bunch of these guys are practice squad bodies, but the starting group is probably good enough if you have a QB who doesn’t hold the ball for a century. But we haven’t been able to stay healthy. We added one developmental guy in the draft, but we burned day three draft picks on Bates and Dan Feeney last offseason. This group definitely isn’t one that should be hard for a rookie to win a job in. In retrospect I’d probably rather have Montez Sweat than Jackson Powers Johnson in the second round, but you know, JPJ would have been fucking amazing.

DB: J. Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Byard, Stevenson, Smith, Owens, Hicks, Q. Johnson, Blackwell, Stroman Jr, Jones, Moore Colbert, Coleman III
Same basic situation as the OL, but the starting 5 are borderline elite when healthy. Some decent backups too, but generally this group is filled with camp bodies. We definitely could have benefitted from a rookie or two, but that’d have been a luxury. But saying a rookie couldn’t crack the final roster is silly.

LB: Edwards, Edmunds, Sanborn, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga, Baskerville
We have exactly 3 starter level players here. I wouldn’t call this a problem, but deep we are not. Crappy 2023 5th rounder Sewell is likely to hold onto hist roster spot, so finding a competent rookie in this draft would have been doable.

DL: Sweat, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Booker, Robinson, Pickens, Cowart, Dwumfour, Martin, Kareem, Hardy
Three of four starters are sound and one is a massive gaping hole. With a second round pick we might have been able to add Johnny Newton or T’Vondre Sweat, but again, we probably wouldn’t have Montez in that scenario. We did trade back in to grab the unproven project in Booker, which I don’t hate, but we’ll see how much we miss that 4th rounder next year.

ST: Santos, Scales, Taylor, Gill, Lyons, Waitman
The last 2 are just camp bodies and Gill will be finding a new line of work. Spending a 4th on a Punter raises some eyebrows, but it’s a serious need for us. Getting a starter in the 4th round is always a plus and while there’s a couple guys early in the 4th I would have loved, by the time we got to our pick they were all gone. No complaints here.

So yeah, this isn’t exactly a stacked roster. A few position groups look pretty solid and we have a lot of replacement level depth. If the assessment that this was a really shallow draft is true, we probably won’t suffer for the lack of picks. But I really hope we don’t make a long-term habit of selling day three picks for veteran back-ups. I also don’t love selling 2nd rounders for expensive stars either even if the Sweat trade looks like a winner right now.