3:35 p.m. Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Texans favored by 3.5
7:15 p.m. Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks favored by 8
Sunday, January 8
12:05 p.m. Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers favored by 10
3:40 p.m. New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Packers favored by 4.5
Some off the dome thoughts:
Connor Cook v. Brock Osweiler could be the worst QB matchup in the playoffs ever. I feel bad for the Raiders for losing their starting QB right before the playoffs, but, again, they’re the Raiders. Plus, I kinda like Connor Cook. But I don’t think he has the experience to go into Houston and beat that defense. I think the Texans (more precisely Osweiler) are the only things that can beat the Texans in this matchup. If he (or Savage) don’t screw it up too badly, I like the Texans to win.
Seattle is a tough place to play, and the Lions have lost 3 games in a row and are 0-5 against playoff teams. Seattle, however, is without Marshawn Lynch and they can’t really count on their running game (25th in the NFL), to ease their load. I do think, however, Russell Wilson will get enough help to get the win.
Is anyone scared of Miami? They have a pretty solid running game, but outside of that, I think they made the playoffs because they got to play the Jets and Bills twice, the Rams, the 49ers, and the Chargers. However, they did beat the Steelers in their week 6 matchup this year, so if Ben throws a couple interceptions and gets injured (:fingers crossed:) and the Dolphins can run for 200+ yards, they have a shot. But I don’t see much of a chance of that happening.
The Giants defense is scary, but alot depends on how healthy JPP is, or even if he’s going to be able to play. And with 25% of the Packers’ team are on the injury report and a depleted secondary, I’m a bit nervous. Especially having seen the Packers torched by stud WR’s like OBJ in the past. So I’m counting on Eli to be Eli (does anyone still think he’s elite?) and not pull a great game out of his ass like he can sometimes. And the Packers always have Rodgers, who is back to playing like Aaron Rodgers. The Packers should win this one, but you can never count out that Giants defense.
When he finishes the season as the second lowest graded QB in the NFL by Pro Football Focus and when he just barely beats out Blake Bortles for 27th rated QB in QBR, I dont think you can call it the “year” of Eli. You can certainly hope Good Eli shows up this post-season, though.
Wishful thinking I’m sure, but I’m picking the Lions for the win. I think they match up decently with the Seahawks, and the Seahawks seem to be limping into the playoffs as much as the Lions.
Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning only shows up in the playoffs, and he’s been dragged kicking and screaming to the playoffs before. Unfortunately he’s going to run in to the Aaron Rodgers buzzsaw. The dude’s averaged a passer rating over 120 over the running of the table, and that’s with Minnesota, Houston, and Seattle in that stretch.
Also, QBR still makes no sense. 18/23 for 240 and 3 TDs with no interceptions is just about as close to perfect as can be. That’s a 77.4 QBR?
/snip
Playoff game buddy! I’ll be at Lambeau cheering on the Pack. I have to point out that the Packers have won every playoff game I’ve gone to, and only lost one game I was present for, total. I have to cheer for the Lions though, because they’re NFCN bros, and if they win, the Packers get one more round before they play the Cowboys, which is the only team in the NFC that truly scares me.
It’s a game that can go either way, personally. The Legion of Boom (fuck Sherman) without Earl Thomas just isn’t what it used to be. That said, Stafford is perfectly capable of throwing a game away or blowing it wide open, if he reverts to gunslinging.
A game that was less than 8 points off a perfect passer rating shouldn’t yield an average QBR. QBR ends up becoming subjective and convoluted, and I just plain don’t like it.
77.4 isn’t average. The 16th ranked QB this year (Derek Carr), had a 61.8 QBR (although his QBR was lessened by his immobility, he was the only NFL QB with a negative running QBR).
I’m not married to QBR, there are certainly flaws (like the time Tim Tebow beat Aaron Rodgers’ QBR), but it can be a useful tool, just like regular passer rating or yards per attempt, or yards in air or any other stat. Except wins and/or Super Bowl trophies. Those are bad tools to determine if a QB is good or not.
Sorry, miscommunication. It was apparently an average Rodgers QBR, which it really wasn’t. He played lights out in that game, even in comparison to his normal play.
QBR isn’t the devil, and CAN be useful. The fact that there’s routinely outliers and no one knows exactly how it’s calculated, makes it seem flawed to me, and I prefer other, more clear-cut statistics.
On Super Bowl wins, how many GREAT quarterbacks never won even one? Yes, there’s a lot of mediocre quarterbacks with a ring (looking at you, Tarvaris Jackson) but aside from Marino and Kelly, there’s not a lot of elite guys without at least one. But I digress, Rodgers gonna Rodgers, and the Giants get to watch the rest of the playoffs at home. No 3LI.
Doesn’t the definition of “elite” QB kinda automatically limit the pool of QB’s who even qualify? And I don’t think that Peyton Manning’s legacy was changed at all by the fact he won a second Super Bowl based not on his play at all, but because of a dominant defense.
Fran is the one who stands out in that list; he was a really good quarterback at a time when quarterbacks weren’t all that and a slice of bread because of rule changes. Hated watching him scramble around eluding my Packers. :mad:
Texans, Steelers, Seahawks, Giants. I’d love to believe my Packers are going to continue their run, but they are sooooo banged up in the secondary, and the Giants, well, let’s just say they have some history on their side here…
As a Hawks fan I think the Packers are the team I’m most afraid of in the postseason. It’s not just how they mangled Seattle in their last meeting (the Hawks were just bad) but they seem almost supernaturally invincible right now despite their earlier struggles and depleted roster. They’re like Rasputin continuing on with what should be mortal wounds.
But they weren’t in the list, were they? And of those, the first three won Super Bowls, which was the point of the post I was referencing. Right?
As for Bert Jones, and Jim Hart, they aren’t in the same breath with Fran Tarkenton, not even close. Now Kenny Anderson, well, he was my hero in the '70s. Stupid goal line stand by the 'Niners! :mad:
This is probably the least enthusiastic I’ve ever felt about the NFL post-season, and two of my favorite teams are in the playoffs. But I just can’t get up for it the way I used to. I think they need to go back to three divisions and have three division champs and three wild-card teams.
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