NFL Playoffs

Aye, that’s the info that this ESPN story contains.

If the ball is knocked “loose” before the hand starts forward, then the hand starts forward with the loose ball in it, that’s a fumble. The quarterback has to be in control of the ball while the passing motion is going on. It was adjudged that Matthews’(?) hand contacted the ball before the hand started forward.

I’m a Giants fan, and a big one, but they have no one to blame but themselves on that play. If Paul Perkins does the thing that he’s supposed to be coached to do, the Giants not only keep the ball but actually wind up gaining a few yards in the exchange. Entirely unacceptable.

Well, the Packers got boned back, both on the “leading with the helmet” hit on Jordy, and the missed facemask. These things balance out.

And the Gints still should have dove on the ball. You could see Matthews yelling to his teammates - the Giant player should have heard him, too. (I thought that was funny, how Matthews did all the work. Caused the fumble and recovered it down field.).

I think both the Seahawks and Packers win next weekend. Seattle and Green Bay has, over the last few years, developed into the best rivalry no one talks about and they always seemed destined to meet in the playoffs.

That would be a great game, and in Seattle too, so it won’t be completely frozen.

And, in between those two actions, he knocked Perkins (who was leaning down to pick up the ball) away from the fumble.

Well, the wild card weekend went as expected, with the contenders winning and the pretenders (I’m looking at you Miami) going home. Here’s the divisional round games:

Saturday, Jan 14th

3:35 p.m.

Seattle at Atlanta - Falcons by 4.5

7:15 p.m.

Houston at New England - Patriots by 16 (yes, 16).

Sunday, Jan 15th

12:05

Pittsburgh at Kansas City - Chiefs by 1

3:35

Packers at Dallas - Cowboys by 4

Some stray thoughts:

  1. Classic offense v. defense matchup with Atlanta hosting Seattle. Falcons are the top scoring team in the NFL, and Seattle is … well, Seattle. I’m very interested in the Julio Jones v. Richard Sherman matchup, but Sherman rarely actually follows a WR around the field, so it might be anti-climatic. Atlanta’s defense is pretty atrocious though, and if Seattle can run the ball like they did last week (and didn’t for most the year this year), they may have a chance to slow them down. But without Earl Thomas, I think this game goes Atlanta’s way.

  2. 16 point line in the playoffs? Wow, that’s a lot of hate for Brock Osweiler. Which, given his play v. his paycheck, is pretty well earned. Houston has a very good defense, but so do the Patriots, and Brady v. Osweiler is like Real Madrid v. my kids’ 6th grade girl soccer team. Maybe Clowney, et. al. get to Brady enough, and maybe Osweiler doesn’t completely mess up, but I think the Patriots win in a walk.

  3. Chiefs/Steelers should be a fascinating game. To absolutely no one’s suprise, Ben is “injured” going into the game, but will somehow superheroically gut it out to play. Vegas seems to think this will be an interesting game too, with the line going from Steelers -1 to Steelers +1. With the game at Arrowhead and Andy Reid having a week to prepare (he’s 16-2 coming out of bye weeks), I’m thinking the Chiefs will eke out a victory, but damn that Bell/Brown combination is rough to beat.

  4. Aren’t Zeke and Dak supposed to hit the “rookie wall” at some point? Here’s hoping it’s Sunday afternoon. The ability of the Packers to stop the run (last time they played, the cowboys rushed for 191 yards) will prove crucial, because if the Cowboys can control the time of possession (they are #3 in the league this year) and keep Rodgers off the field, then they should get the win. But I don’t mind having Dom Capers working on a gameplan against a rookie QB, and I have hopes the Packers can get a win. Should be a fun game.

The 16 point spread (I’m seeing it down to 15 now) is the largest ever for a divisional round playoff game. I think NE will win, but that line is a bit much. The Texans do have a legit defense.

Actually, all of those lines except Pitt/KC look a bit out of whack. ATL giving 4.5 to Seattle? Cowboys giving 4 to GB? Seems Vegas is overconfident in the home teams.

ISTR that, all else being equal, the home team will get a 3-point edge in the Vegas odds, simply for being the home team.

Those matchups have been known for 48 hours or so by now; I suspect that the current odds (and I see that Dallas is now a 4.5 point favorite) are reflecting where the betting money has been flowing.

Patriots should be favored by 21.

Average MoV in the 8 games between Houston and NE is a little over 15, with Houston at 1-7. They beat the Pats by 7 in January of 2010, and came up 3 short three years ago – otherwise, it has been very not good for them, especially in foxboro.

Steelers/Chiefs moved to Sunday night for higher ratings, although they’re claiming ‘weather.’ It’s no coincidence that Monday is MLK day and many people are off.

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Jordy Nelson has been ruled “out” for Sunday’s game, due to his rib injury.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/13/packers-jordy-nelson-out-vs-cowboys-rib-injury

Yes, general rule is that playing at home is worth 3 points. But would you favor Dallas by 1.5 on a neutral field against GB right now? I sure wouldn’t. If I had to bet on a team other than NE this weekend, it would be the Packers. They just thumped the Giants, who owned Dallas this year.

Kansas City is supposed to be getting about an inch of ice overnight on Saturday night/Sunday morning. They’ve been monitoring this for some time. It’s weather-related.

Most years, the conference championship games are played on the Sunday before MLK Day with one game starting mid-afternoon ET and one game at night. This year MLK Day happens to come pretty early and so we’re only at the divisional round. If the NFL thought the ratings would be lower by moving the game to a Sunday night before a holiday, they wouldn’t move the game.

The NFL could give 3/4 of a flying fuck about the weather. In 2008, the NFL refused to move the start time of the NY Giants vs Green Bay conference championship game from the late game (temperature of -1 at kickoff) to the early game since GB vs NY would get much better ratings as the night game. The afternoon game featured the low ratings San Diego Chargers vs high rating Patriots.

I think they care about the field conditions too … remember that one game this year when the rain caused all of the tire pellets to surface? They stopped the game then.

The NFL most certainly cares about the bad press that would happen from people dying in car crashes on their way to see a game. I mean, really, give me a break. Cold isn’t deadly; ice is.

Last season, the Divisional games were played January 16 and 17. MLK Day was Jan. 18. Not shockingly, the Sunday games on the 17th were at 1 pm and 4:40 pm, just like scheduled this year. You’re simply wrong in your assessment, for which you have, I might add, zero evidence.

There might be a particular sensitivity to it in Kansas City, given that Derrick Thomas died from injuries he suffered in a car accident during a snowstorm.