NFL Predictions - Week 11

In My Humble Opinion
1

Not a lot of prep time this week, but here goes:

Green Bay 27 at Detroit 20 (GB by 6 1/2)
This line started at 7 and came down. Good. Detroit tends to be tough on T-giving and Green Bay usually hates domes, but I’ll go with the Pack to bounce back from a humiliating loss to Atlanta last week.
START: Favre, Freeman, Schroeder Green, Hanson, Longwell.
Denver 17 at Dallas 20 (DEN by 6 1/2)
Without much of a running game, and now Rod Smith questionable to even play, I don’t see the Donkeys being able to win this one.
START: Hmmm, not sure, maybe Galloway.

Baltimore 23 at Jacksonville 13 (BAL by 3)
Fred Taylor’s out for the year from the sound of it, so the Jags don’t even have his return to look forward to.
START: Sharpe, Stover, Ravens Defense.

Miami 16 at Buffalo 13 (MIA by 5)
I have a gut feeling that Miami will scratch and claw to a win in this one to keep pace in the division.
START: Miami Defense, Mare.

Pittsburgh 17 at Tennessee 13 (TEN by 2)
This one opened as a “pick 'em” and I thought that was being nice to the Titans.
START: Bettis, Steeler defense.

San Francisco 30 at Indianapolis 27 (IND by 3)
Indy will have to go with Wilkins as their 2nd WR, that’s not a good thing.
START: Garcia, Owens, Hearst, Cortez, Manning, Harrision, Pollard.

Seattle 20 at Kansas City 23 (KC by 1 1/2)
As long as Derrick Alexander is back and healthy, the Chiefs should be able to get thier passing game going again. This is another line mover as the Chiefs opened as one point dogs.
START: SAlexander, DAlexander, Gonzalez, Peterson.

Washington 13 at Philadelphia 23 (PHI by 8)
Even though the Iggles aren’t that great at home this year, I think their blitzing and secondary will stop the passing game and Davis won’t be enough to win this on his own.
START: Philly Defense, McNabb, Thrash, HeHateMe (Just Kidding).

Atlanta 24 at Carolina 20 (ATL by 3)
Divisional game that I almost considered picking the other way, but between Mo Smith and Christian I think the Falcons can control the game on the ground and that will be enough to win.
START: Mo Smith, Crumpler, Panther Defense (an a hunch).

Cincinnati 16 at Cleveland 24 (CLE by 6)
Kitna is looking horrible as the Bengals are returning to form.
START: Couch, Dillon, KevJohnson.

New Orleans 20 at New England 17 (Pick 'em)
Another line changer as the Pats opened as 3 point favorites. This one, IMHO, really is a pick 'em game.
START: Brooks, Williams (Ricky, not Boo), Troy Brown.

Arizona 21 at San Diego 31 (SD by 7)
At home against a weak defensive team like the Cards, I can see the Chargers having a field day. Boston will collect some garbage time yards and TDs though.
START: Flutie, Conway, Tomlinson, Boston.

Oakland 21 at Giants 24 (OAK by 2 1/2)
Just another gut feeling on this one. The Giants gave been Jekyll and Hyde all year and I think they’ll come back this week. Or they could get blown out.
START: Gannon, TBrown, Barber, Toomer.

Chicago 23 at Minnesota 24 (MIN by 3)
I really want to go with the Bears, but I think in the dome the Vikings can squeak it out.
START: AThomas, Booker, Edinger, Moss, Carter, Culpepper.

Tampa Bay 17 at St. Louis 30 (STL by 10)
STL is all banged up on defense, but just like the Vikings, it’s Dome Sweet Dome.
START: Warner, Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Alstott.

5 ATS:
GB
BAL
PIT
CLE
SD

Sure Winner Straight Up: San Diego

2

Here’s my picks that don’t agree with Gazoo’s. Ok I’m going with Denver over Dallas, Seattle over KC & Carolina over Atlanta. Like you I’m going with the Giants over Oakland (when is someone going to pull the mask off these frauds?).

ATS
Green Bay
Denver
Miami
Cleveland
Minnesota

Sure Carolina (I know their the underdogs, but I like the matchup)

3

ATS:

Denver: Dallas doesn’t lose, they beat themselves
Atlanta: Detroit will finish with more wins than the Panthers
Miami: Except for when they play the Jets, they’re usually pretty good
Oakland: It may be wishful thinking, but I think the G-men are capable of not winning out, but losing out.
Seattle: I remember when Andy Reid was hired in Philly, a lot of fans wanted Vermeil, who went to St. Louis instead. After '99, the fans regretted hiring Reid, I don’t think they regret Reid over Vermeil anymore.

Straight-up: Since I can’t use the Eagles again, I’m going to pick the Niners.

4

With your prediction of San Diego doing so well, would you guys start Culpepper or Flutie this week?

5

Ok. guys, I’d like to ask some advice.

I need a win in my fantasy league badly- I’m in 2nd place, one game out. I need to pick two receivers out of this bunch:

Jerry Rice
Cris Carter
Joe Horn
Antonio Freeman
Darrell Jackson

Which two?

6

Munch - Culpepper without a doubt.

Steelerphan - Freeman for sure, and probably Carter at home.

7

Hmm, like Gazoo said, there isn’t much prep time, so my picks aren’t real well researched again. But, if history holds it won’t matter a lick.

Green Bay at Detroit (GB by 6 1/2)
I agree with Gazoo on this one somewhat. Detroit isn’t as bad as their record shows, and they’ll make this game interesting. Batch seems to be finding ways to put up big numbers. The Lions might have the worst D in the league however, and that includes Indy and Minnesota. I am bouncing back and forth on who’ll ocver. I’m pretty sure GB will win, Farve rarely loses twice in a row, and GB’s D is a hell of alot better than the Cards, but I can see Detroit making it a 1 score game at home. I’'m picking GB to win and cover, barely. Not using this game as on of the 5 though.

Denver at Dallas (DEN by 6 1/2)
Tricky one, all depends if Smith is going to play or not. I don’t have faith in Dallas taking advantage either. I think Rod Smith will knuckle up and play, and if he’s out or only 50% Denver might return to the running game roots and eek the win out. I’m picking Denver to win under duress, but not to cover. Never the less, I’m not using it.

Baltimore at Jacksonville (BAL by 3)
Baltimore isn’t good, but the Jags are just destroyed again by injury. B’More will win and cover. Feeling pretty good about taking this game, although I hate relying on the Ravin’s. McCrary’s injuy could be important here too.

Miami at Buffalo (MIA by 5)
Hmm, Buffalo sucks, but Miami isn’t reliable either. Buffalo’s D has been solid, and Fielder was a pretender early this year. Buffalo and Van Pelt won’t move the ball much either. A defensive score will probably be the difference. I’m thinking Miami wins and covers, but I’m not wagering it.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (TEN by 2)
Pittsburg really should be favored here. But you may recall how much trouble I’ve had with Tennessee all year. I know the second I pick against them Wycheck and George will bite me in the ass. I’m thinking Pittburg to win and cover, but I’m probably going to be superstisious and not pick this game.

San Francisco at Indianapolis (IND by 3)
Take the over if you’re betting, no doubt. I’m less certain of who’s going to win this puppy. SF should, especially with Edge out. I’m probably going to take SF to win and cover, but I am not confident. All the math points to a SF upset, but the Colts can find ways to score. Anyways, 49ers to win. Book it.

Seattle at Kansas City (KC by 1 1/2)
Gazoo is high on this one, its my one confident pick. Seattle wins and covers, Alexander has a huge day. The one wild card is the Chiefs running game, but I think the Seahawks will match up ok.

Washington at Philadelphia (PHI by 8)
Washington will not be able to scrounge a W here. Philly should neutralize Steven Davis, and McNabb won’t see much pressure. Not sure if they’ll cover though. Just for kicks I’m thinking Philly wins and Wash covers, but it won’t be one of the 5.

Atlanta at Carolina (ATL by 3)
I have no idea who Atlanta is after last week. But I do however know who Carolina is, and they suck ass. Going with another road team here, but the Falcons win and cover. Although, you know the axiom about avoing divisional road favorites. If I’m desperate I’m taking it though.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (CLE by 6)
I know Cleveland will win this one, but will they cover. Dillon is good and JJ is dinged up. Cincy is poor on the road, and Cleveland is high after the B’More sweep. On a limb, I’d take the Brownies to cover, but not for the cash.

New Orleans at New England (Pick 'em)
The Ewing theory is golden, but the Pats haven’t beaten a team with a really good running game. Take the Saint’s to rally the troops and win this one.

Arizona at San Diego (SD by 7)
I’m not as confident as Gazoo on this one. The numbers point to a SD blowout, but I’ve got a hunch that Plummer will have a monster game. Flutie has been looking very aged lately, but those were against solid teams. LT will however have a big day. SD wins in the end, but I’m not sure they’ll cover. I am not going to use it, but I say the Cards lose but cover again.

Oakland at Giants (OAK by 2 1/2)
Gazoo, I’m thinking something along the lines of Hyde this week. Oakland wins and covers in a Blowout. Big game for Gannon.

Chicago at Minnesota (MIN by 3)
Gazoo I’m going to pretend that you didn’t just pick the Bears to lose. Bears win and cover on the back of the A-Train (unless he fumbles too much). But, I do have to remember my rule about betting the home team, so I’ll only use this game in case of emergency.

**Tampa Bay at St. Louis ** (STL by 10)
Bucs manage to score alot for them in this game, but this is Barnum and Bailey we’re talking about here. The big top will be rocking when the Rams win and cover, even though the Bucs score 27+.

Now, my OMNI picks are going to be:
Oakland, New Orleans, Seattle, San Fran, Baltimore

8

Omni - there’s that sharing a brain thing again. I think we agree in principle on most of the games (SEA-KC being an exception), just a few tweaks on points here and there on the ATS picks.

One note on CHI/MIN - AThomas has suddenly appeared on the injury list as questionable with a pulled hammy.

9

It always scares me when supposed experts and I agree. Even more so when pick the same exact score.

10

Ok, first, where Gazoo and I are different (still haven’t gone back and tallied up whether that’s a good or bad thing):

I have the Raiders over the Giants, albeit at low confidence. I hate it when Jim Fassel-la-ti-do starts guaranteeing wins. Seattle over Kansas City, just because I don’t trust KC and I got burned picking against Seattle again last week. And finally Buffalo over Miami, fueled by my deep distrust of Dave Wannstedt’s coaching instincts. The man seems to make a living off of questionable moves which lose him games he should win. So we have picked 12 the same only 3 different. Could be another tough week for us both.

In the ATS game, let’s see… Falcons, Browns, Seahawks, Steelers, 49ers.

I am out on the Sure thing game, has anyone else picked consistently right after all of the road upsets last week? If I were still picking I would go with St. Louis.

My Fantasy dilemna of the week: Culpepper (vs Chicago’s tough D) or A. Brooks on the road against New England? Any thoughts on this?

11

ATS:
Redskins (Eagles by 8? Not the oddsmakers’ fault; it’s the dumb bettors!)
Tampa Bay (They’ve played teams close on the road. Lost, but played them close.)
Cleveland (Bengals have sucked on the road.)
San Diego (Hell, it’s Arizona!)
Denver (I don’t believe their wheels have come off enough so that the Cowgirls can keep it close.)

Sure*:
Broncos

*[sub]I think I know how this works: straight W/L (forget the spread), but gotta pick a different team each week. Do I have that right?[/sub]

12

Shibb - stick with Culpepper, IMO. Even when the Vikings have had bad games he’s put up decent fantasy number.

RT - yep, that’s how it works. I’ve been knocked out already but made a pick just for the hell of it.

13

This is killing me. I need to play three of these 5:
Horn
Holt
J Smith
Ismail
DAlexander

I have Horn Holt and Smith in right now, but I’m severely looking into putting Alexander in right now. Ismail would be last on my list, even though he is having an awesome year. I have Warner as my QB, so I could go all out and keep Holt in or be safe and put Alex in, just in case Faulk and Bruce have big days.

I also need to decide between Miami’s D vs Buf or Pittsburg’s D vs. Titans.

14

My first reply to these threads.

I just want to go on record saying that if the Redskins defeat the Iggles in Philly this Sunday, they WILL make it to the playoffs.

Thank-you. That is all.

15

I assume you mean Q.Ismail. You can’t bench Holt for Daria who could injure himself lacing up on Sunday. Stick with Horn/Holt/Smith.

On the defensive end, go with PIT if the score allowed is a factor, go with MIA if it’s straight points for sacks, INT’s, and TDs scored by the defense. I have a feeling Fletcher will score a TD on an INT return. Either that or Jason Taylor gets a fumble recovery for a score. BUF’s d-line is bad.

Nice games today - DAL would’ve had a chance if not for a coaching error (4th quarter is when you do pay attention to the 2 point conversion chart). For the Lions, McMahon should have run that 2-point try in.

On a side note, the officiating crew in the GB/DET game was horrible. Favre had the ball on the ground, that’s considered down as far as I know. The GB DL-man had possession in the endzone - that’s a TD, not a safety. You have to review the Detroit TD where the WR was that close to the sideline (although, the ruling would probably be that the WR stepped out of bounds - by stepping on the pylon - and therefore couldn’t be the first guy to touch the ball). And the review on the next play, where the call was overturned was unreal - (a) I couldn’t tell his foot didn’t hit the turf, just because his foot didn’t bend doesn’t mean his toe didn’t touch, and besides, he was pushed out.

16

Just a quick note on the GB/Det Zebras: I watched all of the replays of the Favre fumble and at first I thought it was out, then from another angle it looked like it was down, then a slightly slower or different version of that angle looked like it just left his hand before it touched the ground. Net, it was inconclusive so the replay guy couldn’t overrule what was called on the field, right or wrong. On the play where he steps on the endzone pylon, as I understand it the inside of the pylon is inbounds, it would be a touchdown if the ball hit there, so he should be ruled inbounds (if my understanding is correct, I don’t have a rulebook handy). Either way they should have reviewed that automatically, since it was inside 2 minutes. I was basting the turkey so didn’t really see the other play you mentioned. Still feels like the replacement refs generally did a better job.

17

:stuck_out_tongue:

Of course, in fantasy ball I left Moulds on the bench!

18

Looks like a final tally of 3-1-1. Oh elusive perfection!

19

Well, I’m 2-2 ATS going into tonight, but my ‘sure’ pick won (just barely!) and more important, the Redskins won. Dallas next! :slight_smile:

20

Brooks 11 points, Culpepper 4, in my league.

Okay, I’m not going to quibble on this since I go into tonight 20 points up with Marshall Faulk to go. But I was anxious yesterday when I found out that A. Thomas was not going to play and not enough time or depth on my bench to do anything about it. Any word on if he’s back next week? Fortunately I picked up Dominic Rhodes as soon as Edge went down and he contributed big yesterday.

Just a note that if I ever met Randy Moss I’d feel terribly inclined to punch him in the face. Anybody want to start a pool on how soon he goes broke after he gets out of football? My guess is within two years, more likely one. Probably some arrests and prison time as well. I really feel sorry for whoever raised this kid.