NFL Predictions - Week 14 (Calling All Bears Fans)

In My Humble Opinion
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Here’s the picks for the week. I’ll check back in later and try and summarize the past few weeks of results since I’ve been lazy and distracted and see where the overall numbers are at. I’ll also be sure to get in the OMNI picks.

Interesting stat I heard this morning, apparently 59% of favorites have been covering this season, a crazy percentage. The bookies are just getting crushed this season. The upshot is that we’d better be damn careful with picking favorites these last few weeks. You’ll notice a huge number of big spreads this week, and I’m guessing that’s a direct result.

Also, I’d like to get some opinions for Bears fans and anyone else following the NFC and Bears QB situation. Whats the consensus on the Orton/Grossman psuedo-contraversy? I’m going to weigh in with my thoughts a little later, but I’m curious where you kids stand. He’s won 8 in a row, but they haven’t usually been pretty for him, and that Cincy game still hangs over us. Lets kick the idea around.

On to the picks:

Sunday, Dec. 11
**CAROLINA 5 Tampa Bay 37 **
The Panthers and Bucs haven’t played up to their potential, and this matchup has a few question marks. We cannot forget that it’s a divisional game in which anything can happen. 5 points feels like a big margin for a team that struggles to run the ball against a pretty tough defense. Tampa is simply in a must win situation and has to go to Carolina where they’ve been tough to beat. Both teams have their flaws and both teams have their strengths, neither is the whole package. Recently, the Panther have been just a little bit more impressive.

The Pick: Panthers, Under

**New England 3½ BUFFALO 37 **
This game is a real pig. Both defenses suck, Moulds is suspended and the game could be a snowy one in Buffalo. I think the difference is that Dillon is supposed to be back and I have a hunch that McGahee is going to lose a bit of his edge in the elements. Even though the Pats are probably a playoff lock, they still have to feel some sense of urgency and can’t allow themselves to back all the way into the playoffs. Maybe they tighten things up just enough.

The Pick: Pats, Over

**MINNESOTA 6½ St. Louis 45 **
Well, I can’t say I saw the Vikings coming. Go figure, eh? I still think they are a poor team with marginal talent. I think they’ve won with a combination of favorable schedules, good match-ups and sheer good luck. Still, they are a better team than the Rams. The Rams defense belongs in the same discussion as the previous game’s, and might be the worst in the league all things considered. The rookie from Harvard slid back to earth last week and there’s little reason to assume much will change this week on the road in a loud dome.

The Pick: Vikes, Over

**PITTSBURGH 5½ Chicago 31½ **
WHAT!!! The Bears are nearly a TD dog? Bullshit. Favre nearly got gutted last week and here Big Ben is dinged up with a bad thumb. The Bengal D made him turn the ball over, what do you think the Bears will do? The Steelers won’t run the ball, they’ll get sacked repeatedly and will cough it up. I realize Orton has issues, but this should be a good game for him to sit back and let the D win it.

The Pick: Bears, Under

**Oakland 3 NY JETS 37½ **
Did I call that NE/Buff game a pig? Well this one is a seeping, festering, rotten pig rectum in comparison. A grand total of 6 starts for the 2 QBs. The Jets are starting a secondary with 2 rookies and a second year guy. Neither running back has done anything and Moss has already packed his tackle box for the season. Norv Turner should never have been hired and is ready to be fired. And….everyone repeat after me……”J-E-T-S Suck! Suck! Suck!” I pity you if your affiliate makes you watch this game.

The Pick: Jets, Under

**Indianapolis 7½ JACKSONVILLE 42 **
This is going to be a very fun game to watch, but I don’t buy into the hype that it’s going to be close. People forget that the Jags are starting a backup QB and have been softened by playing a bunch of tomato cans. The speed and precision of the Colts will catch them off guard, and don’t think the Colts haven’t solved whatever scheme they employed back in week 2.

The Pick: Colts, Under

**TENNESSEE 6½ Houston 42 **
I’m just going to play a hunch here. No analysis or anything. The Texans are just too talented at the skill positions to keep losing to other bad teams.

The Pick: Texans, Over

**CINCINNATI 12 Cleveland 43 **
The Browns have been improving and I liked the way Frye looked last week and it’ll be entertaining to watch them audition him for the rest of the season. Still, this is a must win game for Cincy and they need to get that team firing on all cylinders. If they let up there’s no hope of them turning it on in the post season. If they let off the gas and allow Cleveland within 2 TDs it’s a red flag.

The Pick: Bengals, Over

**Washington 4 ARIZONA 41 **
Stand back folks, I’m going to commit Hari-Kari with this one. It’s difficult to swallow, picking Warner and the Cardinals to win in December against a quality defense, but I’m going to do it anyways. Brunell hasn’t done much lately, Portis is too concerned with costumes than football, and the Redskins are going to be more concerned with their tee times than kick-off out on Phoenix. On the flipside, the Cardinal passing attack has heated up nicely. If they can add some O-line help in the off-season they high hopes they had this year could actually materialize.

The Pick: Cards, Over

**NY Giants 8 PHILADELPHIA 37½ **
The Eagles are total dogs and they flat out quit on Monday night. The Giants will relish sticking it to them in Philly, not to mention they need to win this game if they want to put away the NFC East. I like Shockey and Tiki to have pretty good days.

The Pick: Giants, Under

**SEATTLE 16 San Francisco 43 **
Don’t know what to make of this one. The Seahawks can certainly be dominant, especially at home, and the Niners are shooting for the Reggie Bush lottery. Still, that 16 points feels like a big number for anyone but the Colts. Their last matchup only 3 weeks ago was a tight game and this is a divisional contest. I’m going to defy logic with the Seahawks coming off a MNF game and go the other way and pick SF to stay in the game.

The Pick: Niners, Over

**SAN DIEGO 13½ Miami 45 **
The Dolphins announced that Frerotte is going to be back at QB for the Dolphins. It’s unlikely that I’d have picked them anyways, but I’m sticking with the old “don’t bet on a crappy QB on the road, especially Gus Frerotte” adage.

The Pick: Chargers, Over

**DENVER 14½ Baltimore 40½ **
Denver’s defense is pretty good, not staggering, but still pretty darn good. In any case it’s better than Baltimore’s, and Kyle Boller struggled against the Texans of all people. I realize 14+ points is a lot, but may I please refer you to the adage quoted above.

The Pick: Broncos, Under

**DALLAS 3 Kansas City 43½ **
It’s a must win for the Chiefs, and pretty close to it for the Cowboys. Should be an exciting game to watch and I really hope my network carries it. Right now KC has the look of a team of destiny, one that refuses to be held down. It’s pretty impressive what they’ve been doing lately and it’s a testament to Vermeil. You have to ask what the hell happened back in Buffalo. The Cowboys however look like a team that’s barely hanging on. Ugly losses are mounting and Bledsoe is sliding back to form. Still, the Chiefs don’t quite have that nasty attacking style defense that has been known for forcing errors in him. Jones has been an offensive boost for the Cowboys and he should get lots of carries. Should be a high scoring battle of wills, I think the Cowboys blink first.

The Pick: Cowboys, Over

**GREEN BAY 6 Detroit 36 **
Think the NFL regrets all these GB games in primetime? How nice would Dallas/KC tilt look in this spot? Even if it is Brett’s final season, this game is gonna suck. Wonder how much ice he went through after last week, probably took him 2 days to get out of bed. And don’t kid yourself by thinking that big ass chuck of flesh missing from his hand last week isn’t going to be a factor for the rest of the season. Garcia is tabbed to start for the Lions and that gives them a fair shot in Lambeau. I think the Pack are going to win, and I hope they do to eliminate the risk of seeing Bush in a Packers uni for a decade, but I think it’s a close enough game to pick the Lions.

The Pick: Lions, Over

Monday, Dec. 12
ATLANTA 10 New Orleans 43½
Another weak-ass game to cap off the week. Still, I think it’ll be competitive. The Falcons have been getting progressively worse week-to-week and New Orleans for how decimated they’ve been in every sense of the word they’ve still managed to play relatively hard in most weeks. The Falcons D has looked as porous as your typical bar-room debate and Vick just looks lost out there. Still, it’s tough to pick the Saints to win a game on the road, however I think there’s a certain comfort level for them in a dome. It all comes down to the 10 points, and I’ve gone back and forth on it. Really, the deciding factor is that I’ve pick too many underdogs this week so I’ll play it safe and go with the chalk.

The Pick: Falcons, Under

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Sorry I’ve been missing all of the football fun the last couple of weeks. I will hopefully (but probably not) have more time later, but here are a few notes (on the games I will likely get to watch this week, including your Bears question):

Wash @ Ari - This game scares me a little. Arizona would appear to be clicking pretty well on offense, and have enough to beat the 'Skins at home. However, Washington actually has a bunch more to play for here - if they win this one, they have a deceptively accessible road to 10-6 and a possible playoff sixth seed, with home games against Dallas and NYG (the Giants in particular have had issues on the road, and divisional games are always a toss up) before a game at Philly (a winnable divisional road game if ever there was one, at this point) to close out the season. It’s not necessarily LIKELY, but far stranger things have happened, and I think there’s a decent chance Gibbs gets them motivated enough to play for it.

Indy @ Jacksonville - This game might be pretty fun to watch if Leftwich was playing. The Garrard-led Jags offense is exactly the kind of offense that the Colts defense has been getting fat on this year (maybe even moreso than the Leftwich offense that they already held to three points this season). I want this game to be close, but I just don’t think that it will be.

Denver @ Baltimore - Wow. Just, wow. I’m not sure Denver is as all-around good as we’ve been giving them credit for… but there is no doubt that they are a beast at home, and the Ravens, well, aren’t on the road. This game could be a three or four touchdown spread with ease, if things were ever done that way. Don’t think I’ll be using TOO much of my time on this one.

Bears @ Steelers - This one could be fun. I can understand why the Steelers might be favored (at home, Bears shaky QB, offense clicked a little last week)… but there is NO WAY that a defense that is so clearly the best in the league right now should EVER be an underdog by more than a field goal, except maybe at Indy. They have shown the ability to play (and win) low-scoring games on the road against halfway decent teams, and I think this one goes on that pattern (not something I’m necessarily happy about since I could use another big week from Hines).

Yeah… no way I’m going to be watching those Sunday and Monday night stinkers with end of term work looming.

Re: the Bears QB situation… this one is pretty tough. I think if we really knew anything about how Grossman was going to be, you’d almost have to take the risk if you were serious about trying to win a pretty open NFC in a year where a confluence of events have benefitted the Bears (very beatable schedule, few key injuries, Philly falling completely apart, Giants giving off that “we’ll be ready next year” feel, etc). On the other hand, Grossman has, what, less than half a dozen games played in the NFL? I mean, he’s had more to get familiar with the league, but Orton has more game experience at this point, and the team is winning him… so an “upgrade” is no guarantee. If this was a Bledsoe or Warner (or even, god forbid, a Garcia or Dilfer) coming back from injury, a veteran guy who offered decent hope of moving the offense into a “consistently almost-decent” range, then sure, you risk the change. I just don’t know that Grossman has enough immediate upside to balance the fact that you’re tinkering with a team that seems to have a pretty easy path to the NFC championship game.

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Ha! I think this is the first time I’ve found this thread in the past couple of weeks. Just glanced at the games of importance to me, not much I can quibble about. Although I do thank you for picking the Panthers, we have that going in our favor. I wonder if the Bucs cheerleaders will follow the team up to Charlotte and get some hardcore action going in a bar somewhere. Since the Bucs cheerleaders are much hotter I sure hope so.

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I agree with your picks, though I hate to do so with the Steelers. This week I’m not getting the usual Broncos game, which at times can be a good thing, because instead I get the Bears-Steelers, Colts-Jaguars, and Chiefs-Cowboys games. Of course, the Broncos game would replace the Chiefs game, but that’s the game with more signifigance in the playoff picture. But who do I root against? The Cowboys, because I hate the Cowboys, or the Chiefs, because they’re divisional rivals? Is there some way I can root for both of them to lose?

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Kiros, one general comment on the Grossman thing. I think the reason Bears fans (especially ones who’ve watched alot of games over the last 3 seasons) are more torn on this than you’d expect is because Grossman has at least looked to be a solid upgrade. The stats don’t really bear this out, but just on visual impressions he looked to be in command.

His passer rating is 9 points higher over about the same number of games and that was with an infinately worse team around him. He never had decent field position and David Terrell was the best weapon he had. :eek: Most importantly the offensive line now is light years better and healthy, which it wasn’t when he played before.

So yes, Grossman’s numbers aren’t impressive and he hasn’t proven himself yet, but the comparisons suffer because the circumstances are so different. I’m not convinced you yank Orton, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t hoping for a blowout in order toget Grossman a good long look before the postseason.

Then again, we really need to play for homefield advantage.

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Unfortunately, being a fan of one team often means rooting for a hated division rival now and then… as painful as it may be. I hate when that happens.

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And it’s only complicated by Fantasy Football. I’ve got Alexander and I’m torn between wanting to make my FFL playoffs and the Bears to get homefield advantage. It’s a dangerous web we weave.

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Yes. I’m a Dallas fan.

I keep my vomit bowl handy whenever I must root for the Eagles. In those rare games, when the Eagles make a good play, I cheer, then vomit, then cry, and curl up into a ball on the floor for the next play. It’s quite an ordeal.

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Just read The Sports Guy’s NFL column and it contained this nugget of brilliance.

Check it out

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Isn’t it more accurate to say Warner is clicking and that Arizona, while leading the NFL in passing Offense is still last in the League in Rushing? Whatever, the Redskins are last in the NFC in sacks & with wideout Anquan Boldin having posted three straight 100-yard games, and Larry Fitzgerald going over 100 yards in four of his last five games… I can see how someone could be scared to take the Redskins here (but 4 to 41 Omniscent? that has to be a mistake right?)-- I can envision Warner chewing the crap out of yardage on them and never being very hurried, let alone sacked.

Still, to me a team that can almost always run decently (Dunn, Barber and Alexander - thats it - the only NFC backs with more yards than Portis) has passed well enough for 9 weeks against all the NFL big boys and has a better defense will beat a team with a longer kicking game and better passing offense most times – Redskins 28 Cardinals 21

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Right, but if you remove that fluke of a Saints game, in all their other games, they’ve scored 187 points and given up 239.

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True, but it was a funny line.

Wha?

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Even with questionable coaching, questionable QBing, and the most talented talentless receiver corps in the NFL, Detroit will roll over Green Bay.

So a question for my money league, Vick or Hasselback?

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No brainer, Hasselbeck…god, that’s not even worth discussing.

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And it’s complicated by the fact that I no longer care about the NFC now that the Eagles are out of it and want to see the Steelers in the playoffs. Meaning I have to root for the Chargers and the Chiefs, at least, to lose every game they play from here on out, as well wanting Denver to secure homefield, meaning I’ve also got to root for whoever’s playing the Bengals so that they don’t get the better record and homefield. I guess I also need to root for the Jaguars to lose. The last thing I want to see is Denver having to play in Indianapolis yet again. So I guess I’m rooting for Miami, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and, ugh, Dallas this week. Even though Indy will lock up everything this week if they beat Jacksonville.

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I thought the line and over under were screwed up – I could have checked before I posted but I didn’t and see now it is pretty universal – so I am a dope

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Typo here on this one. I talked myself into picking the Chiefs, not the Cowboys.

The Pick: Chiefs, Over

While we’re at it, OMNI picks: Indy, Chicago, Carolina, Kansas City, NY Giants

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That Stephen Davis is a class act. Always liked him.

The way the Panthers D prepared for and handled Vick last week, you have to give them the edge over a rookie on the road. Stranger things have happened, but it’s real hard not to like Carolina this week.

The Skins hold their season in their hands. With a win this week, they’d be 7-6 and looking at 3 divisional games to close out the season–with only the “easy” game on the road. Could be interesting.

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I did very badly last week, i’ll dig up the results and post them later…

This week, my picks are:
PITTSBURGH defeats Chicago
Cleveland defeats CINCINATTI
TENNESSEE defeats Houston
JACKSONVILLE defeats Indianapolis
New England defeats BUFFALO
Tampa Bay defeats CAROLINA
St Loius defeats MINNESOTA
NY JETS defeats Oakland
PHILADELPHIA defeats NY Giants
San Francisco defeats SEATTLE
Miami defeats SAN DIEGO
Baltimore defeats DENVER
DALLAS defeats Kansas City
ATLANTA defeats New Orleans

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I didn’t count them, but I think Monocracy did better than Omniscient.