NFL Predictions - Week 15

In My Humble Opinion
1

:frowning: 7-8 last week. 132-71 overall. My three game lead on the Sporting News? Gone. We’re tied. I know, I said the beagle would make the picks if I ever did this poorly, but he wouldn’t stop licking himself. Time to get serious and rack up some wins this week!

Cardinals 13 at Jaguars 30 (David Boston is the finest receiver in the NFL. Well, when his team is down by 28 and the opposition is playing prevent anyway.)

Panthers 20 at Chiefs 17 (4 words – puh tha et tic. Ah, what the hell, at least the Panthers still have a little hope.)

Bengals 10 at Titans 24 (Hmmm, this is actually starting to look like a week a guy who went 7-8 could use!! Based on Dillon’s past performance against stingy defenses, he’ll probably rush for 300 yards this week.)

Lions 17 at Packers 27 (The Lions are wannabes. Their record is much better than the team, and without Westbrook in the defensive backfield they are even worse.)

Vikings 31 at Rams 35 (I was going to comment about Warner and shaking the rust off, but…this just in, the Rams may use Faulk on kick returns!! Can you say Jason Sehorn?)

Patriots 17 at Bears 13 (Patsies at midgets. Hmmmm….McNown has no one left to throw to and the Bears defense has apparently taken the remainder of the season off. This one comes down to who wants it least.)

Eagles 20 at Browns 3 (You gotta love the Iggles’ playoff drive - Browns. Bye. Bengals.)

Steelers 9 at Giants 17 (Here’s the game of the week. Toughest one of the bunch to pick. IMHO, though, the Steelers are not as good as their record. Just about any other division and they’re 6-8.)

Chargers 13 at Ravens 32 (How do all these playoff bound teams get the pansies at the end of the year?)

Buccaneers 16 at Dolphins 20 (Another game that may seem tough to call. Nope, the Dolphins are apparently a team of destiny this year. My pick for AFC rep to the ‘Bowl.)

Seahawks 10 at Broncos 30 (I get the feeling Holmgren might be having second thoughts about serving as coach and general manager.)

Redskins 30 at Cowboys 17 (The “curse” is over. The coach who should have never been more than a coordinator is gone. Robiskie, now this is a coach. A one column article in SI, and he’s won me over. Really.)

Saints 20 at 49ers 17 (Oh, I get it, all the tough games are down near the bottom of the list. The Saints defense will bounce back just fine, and the Aaron Brooks-Willie Jackson-Terry Allen show continues.)

Jets 21 at Raiders 24 (I don’t really like the Raiders. I do like Gruden though. And this team has the talent. On the road, I’d probably go with the Jets though.)

Bills 16 at Colts 35 (This is exactly what the Colts need right now. A divisional rival (to hype the players) that’s hurt defensively and has no running attack.)

Cross your fingers and wish me better than 7-8 this week.

2

God, I hope you’re wrong. We’ll see what happens. The Steelers have a lot more to lose than the Giants. If the Steelers have a prayer to make the playoffs, then this week is going to be the hardest one to get by. The need to win all 3 games they have left (NYG, Skins, Chargers) and the Giants will without a doubt be the toughest of the three. Also, for them to make it, the Jets need to lose 2 of their remaining three (which is VERY possible, seeing as how they have Oakland Sunday and Baltimore in Week 17.)

Sigh. It’s gonna be a long three weeks.

3

With picks like these you’ll be 7-8 this week too! But no worry I’m here to help:

Nope, Cheifs 21, Panthers 10

Flip these around

Wanna bet? 49ers 31 Aints 24

Please review Denver/Oakland games, flip this one too.

4

Hey stuffinb, how’s it going?

You pretty much picked 4 of the games I felt could go either way. Here’s my reasons for picking those games the way I did:

Panthers over Chiefs - the Panthers still have an outside chance at the playoffs, so they still have something to play for. Plus, they’ve actually played fairly good ball the last two weeks. The Chiefs OTOH are crashing. Even at Arrowhead they can’t win.

Rams over Vikes - I want the Rams to win because I have Culpepper and Smith on my fantasy squad and need them to still be playing meaningful games for our playoffs.

Saints over 49ers - Just to piss you off. :smiley:

Raiders over Jets - Two pretty equal teams. Go with the home team.

5

I think the streak’s going to live on another week.

The Redskins are a ball of confusion right now, and this is one of those weeks when the obvious gimme-games can be real spoilers (I’m slightly more nervous about the Eagles/Browns than I was about the Eagles/Titans).

Of course, I think the Eagles will whip the Browns, but still… with that game and the Ravens/Chargers coming up, I have a funny feeling some game is not going to go according to plan.

But, hopefully it’ll just be the Redskins tanking it. I’d love to hear the DC folks here talk about getting swept by Dallas. :slight_smile:

Go Eagles!!!

6

hijack ahead:

Have Heart, mouthbreaker. The Steelers CAN beat the Giants, and they don’t necessarily have to win out. I have to disagree with Gazoo. The Steelers are BETTER than their record, despite being in “weak” division. Yes they had the Brownies and the Bengals to beat up, but Baltimore and Jacksonville are not slouches. The weakest division in football is the NFC West, and look how badly the Rams are doing. They are in the same boat as the Steelers: Needing others to lose to make the playoffs.

Other than the Steelers comment, I pretty much have to agree with gazoo, with the exception of the Rams. They have been figured out. Who cares if Faulk runs back kicks? They already have an awesome kicking game. All they are doing is wearing out their workhorse.

The Steelers are playing way over their expected level. With the offense clicking and the Run defense making an effort, they are a playoff team.

Now, I’d like to post for you and other Steeler fans a list a football fanatic friend made for me, listing in order of preference, who, at this point, Steeler fans should hope to win or lose. Remember: Steelers own the tie-breaker over the Jets (head to head win).

P.S.: Hear about the Lemieux news? Go Stihlers! Go Pens!

7

Let’s see, they lost to the Browns. Yes, the Ravens and Jags are formidable opponents now, but not when they lost to the Steelers. They beat Jacksonville when the Jags we’re in a huge tailspin, it’s only been the last three or four weeks that Jacksonville has looked tough again (and beat the Steelers by 10 points). They beat the Ravens prior to the benching of Banks and the emergence of Jamal Lewis, the only person scoring at that time was Stover.

Sorry, this team will not make the playoffs. If they were in the AFC East, NFC East, or NFC Central they’d be basement dwellers.

8

I love you, stuffinb.

9

ROFLMAO!!!

10

Hey, Gazoo I’m doing pretty good:

[quote]
Raiders over Jets - Two pretty equal teams. Go with the home team.[/quote[

Other than outright Bias (I HATE the Raiders), I picked the Jets over the Raiders because the Raiders lack defense, and have been lousy against good teams, hence the “Review Radiers/Denver” comment.

The Panthers have never impressed me, other than they have the Niners number. I just don’t see them going anywhere.

The Vikings to me are just a better all around team than the Rams.

11

Tsk tsk…betting with your heart instead of your head.

The Vikes want this one *bad/i]. It could lock up home field throughout the playoffs. They’ll be up for it after last year’s second half debacle.

12

It’s a good thing I don’t type up their playbook.

13

Let’s see, they lost to the Browns. Yes, the Ravens and Jags are formidable opponents now, but not when they lost to the Steelers. They beat Jacksonville when the Jags we’re in a huge tailspin, it’s only been the last three or four weeks that Jacksonville has looked tough again (and beat the Steelers by 10 points). They beat the Ravens prior to the benching of Banks and the emergence of Jamal Lewis, the only person scoring at that time was Stover.
**
[/QUOTE]

You miss my point. It’s funny the way the NFL works. Often teams do play above their stations, others below. Often teams will stink until one or two facets of their game start to click. Others will thrive until one facet stops to click. Some magazines picked the Steelers to finish 2-14.

The Steelers have got to be having one of the oddest seasons on record. They lost 3 in a row with no offense and no defense. They won 5 in a row with no offense and outstanding defense. They then lost 3 in a row with little offense and a run defense that went on vacation. Now they’ve won 2 in a row with above average defense and unbelievable offense (run and pass). And most of this playing "shuffle between the motionless QB who can’t run and the running QB who can’t throw. And oddly, their wins are coming outside of their “weak” division. They even came within a blown call of beating Montfort’s precious, soon to be division winners, Eagles. Traditionally even bad AFC Central teams step it up for divisional games.

I could give other examples, such as Oakland and their 10-2 “Beat everybody but Denver.”

The Steelers that lost to the Browns is no more the same Steelers now as the St. Louis Rams are the same team that looked to run the table (I hope that sentence makes sense). If I had said in week 5 “The Rams won’t make the playoffs.” You ould have laughed. Now it’s a real possibility. And I think that Minnesota is going to walk all over them. They have a defense.

Have you ever seen the Sagarin Ratings? They are a formula calculated power ranking. They are adjusted each week according to how each team does statistically and is a really interesting way to compare teams. Check out the strength of schedule. A higher number indicates a tougher schedule:

Pittsburgh: 19.57 Rank: 16
St. Louis: 16.61 Rank: 31

The Steelers have 15 teams with easier schedules according to this system. The Rams have none. And yet here we are. The Rams have one more win than the Steelers. They lost to Carolina. Even the Steelers beat them last year. It looks like the NFC West will have its 5th title winner in 5 years. Amazing.

Your analysis of the Steelers chances to make the playoffs is very apt. I agree whole heartedly. Their chances are, indeed, slim to none. They have to win 2 of 3 at least (winning out guarantees nothing) and have the AFC east devour its own tail – which seems to be happening. And I would also have to pick the Giants this week if there was money involved. You said yourself that this was the hardest game to pick.

I feel like I’m in Great Debates. Sorry to hog your thread.

I must say that I do admire your game picking skills and have enjoyed reading these threads. But you’re still wrong about the Rams/Vikings game.

And please pick the Redskins next week. Franco Harris is going to be there.

-“Somebody hit that guy with a Polish Sausage or something!” - Myron Cope, Steelers Announcer, as Sebastian Janikowski was about to miss a field goal.

14

In case you didn’t notice, the Steelers could just as easily have only 2 losses (only the 2nd Jacksonville game and the 1st week were real blowouts). There have been no less than THREE league apologies for blown calls that cost us the game (Cleveland, Tenessee and Philadelphia)…ok NFL, when we miss the playoffs because of your fucking inept officials, we’ll forgive ya anyway!!! Also the wins against the then 4-0 Jets and the 10-2 Raiders, both at the time the best teams in the AFC, certainly play well for the Steelers odds. As for Tennessee, certainly the Steelers could have won either one of those games. This is a much better football team than people give credit for (I mean, how can any team with a top-rated defense be completely out of it?) Black and gold for life.

Latecomer, the Lemieux news brought a smile to my face and a tear to my eye :slight_smile:

15

I’m glad to see yinz jagoffs comin aht of the woodwork n’at. :slight_smile: For a while, it seemed that I was the only Stihlers fan on the board!

16

Yes, and though I don’t like computer rankings, they do help support my point. Under the Sagarin Rating, the Steelers would be 4th in the NFC Central and 5th in the AFC East. I’m not the only one who considers this team below average. Of the power polls I looked at this morning (Sporting News, CNNSI, CBSsportsline, and Foxsports) only the Sporting News had them ranked as high as 15. The rest had them at 16. Sagarin has them as 14. None of these ranks puts them in the top 12 which, in theory, are the playoff teams.

**
No need to apologize, I love discussing/debating/trash talking football. And I respect your analysis and support of your team. I just don’t agree with all of it. Hey, if the Steelers win, I’ll be the first to come back and eat crow for you.

**I know. Like I said (and Rysdad pointed out), I picked this one on wishful thinking for my fantasy football hopes. I expect the Vikings will win and then I’ll only get half of a game for each of the next two weeks from Culpepper and Robert Smith when I need them most. :eek: I can always hope though.

Too funny! Maybe SeaBass heard him and did a Homer during his approach. “Mmmm Polish Sausage.”

17

All True. I was just trying to debunk the “easy division/easy schedule” claim. At the beginning of the season I kept hearing how great the Rams were. Yeah, they were good, but not as good as people seem to think. Their offense is two fold: Run Marshall Faulk and throw little dink passes to him. Throw the ball really far knowing that your receivers will outrun anybody on the field. I think the NFL has figured this out. Don’t give the QB time to throw, jam the receivers to throw off their rhythm, and an average run defense beats them.

One thing that I’ve noticed is that Super Bowl teams seem to come from bad divisions. Last Year, Tennessee and St. Louis. The Falcons a few years back. Green Bay rode the ugly NFC central to the Super Bowl, as did San Francisco and Dallas in the early 90’s. Indeed, the Steeler team that went to the SB in '95 was in one of the weakest divisions in Football (Jacksonville’s first year in the league). It’s a sign of a great team, it seems to me, to take advantage of this. I like Miami, but I like Tennessee’s chances better in the playoffs because of the weak division. They won’t play as many hard, physical, games and should be healthier. The AFC East is devestating, though now it seems as though the cream is rsing to the top, with Buffalo and Indy falling back into the pack.

And, by the way, I think that even if the Steelers can back into the playoffs, their chances there are very slim. I never said that they were above average, but average teams make the playoffs every year. It’s all about hanging in there and playing well in December. It would just be a nice feather in Cowher’s cap to make the playoffs after two seasons that can only be described as disasters of major proportions. I would call a .500 record beyond expectations.

P.S., Myron Cope is the Steelers radio announcer. I do think that he jinxed Janikowski. Myron invented the Terrible Towel which has jinxed opponents for 25 years.

18

You silly people. There is nothing so goofy as arguing about who is going to win a game before the game happens. The real fun is explaining after the game why your team should have won, even though they didn’t! :wink:

I’ll go back to the election threads now… :wink:

19

Lucky people.

In one of my pools at work, not only do I have to pick the winners (fortunately, ignoring the spread) but I have to rank them as to how confident I am of their win. If there are fifteen games that week, the one game is worth fifteen points to me, another is worth fourteen points, and so on.

After fourteen weeks, I’m leading the pack with 1125 points, with two people at 1119 and 1118 nipping at my heels.

So, here’s my picks, ranked in order of how confident I am that I’m right (and thus how valuable they are to me.)

15: Baltimore over San Diego
I was thinking that the time was ripe for Ryan Leaf and the Chargers to crush the arrogant Baltimore defense … but then I laughed.

14: Tennessee over Cincinnati
I’m sorry. Tennessee just won’t lose at home to the Scott Mitchell / Akili Smith combo, Corey Dillon or no.

13: Denver over Seattle
Mike Anderson, you’re my fantasy football steal of the year. I love you.

12: Philadelphia over Cleveland
When the Browns are held to negative passing yards, that really meant something. I thought it was unrealistic enough that I managed to do that in a game of NFL 2k1 on the Dreamcast … little did I know it was prophetic.

11: Jacksonville over Arizona
Plummer will complete more to the opposition than he will to his own men.

10: Minnesota over St Louis
I’m feeling nervous about this game- but I’ve gotta make a gamble somewhere if I want to pull ahead of the people behind me in the rankings. The TWA dome is close enough to the Metrodome for the Vikes to pull this off, and the Vikings are going into this with three things in mind. If they win, they a) Clinch homefield advantage in the playoffs, b) Clinch the NFC Central title, and c) Quite possible eliminate the Rams from the playoffs. After last year’s 49-37 playoff debacle, Minnesota clearly doesn’t want to risk facing St Louis in the playoffs again. Also, my first road team I’m picking for a win.

9: New Orleans over San Francisco
Last week was an aberration, and the Saints will win their division. Another road win, too.

8: Washington over Dallas
Jeff George throws for a win, and all the while, Brad Johnson makes cutesy-poo eyes at his future Dallas teammates across the field.

7: Miami over Tampa Bay
They both have the “big-defense big-running no-passing” game going for them, but it’s working better for Miami.

6: New York Giants over Pittsburgh
Normally I’d go with the Steelers, but I don’t think they can pull it together on the road, and the Giants are making a surprising run for the playoffs. Of course, as we near this end of the list, the games are (in my opinion) getting too close to call.

5: Detroit over Green Bay
I want Green Bay to play spoiler, but they won’t. Their Lambeau mystique was destroyed in October of 1998 with the breakout game of Randy Moss. Yeah, it’s still a tough place to play, but it’s no longer a guaranteed loss.

4: Carolina over Kansas City
Elvis, grow your beard back. At least you looked rugged, then.

3: New England over Chicago
I don’t much care who wins this. Neither is a playoff contender. Bledsoe performed somewhat admirably lately, and Urlacher isn’t playing like he was earlier. Not that I’m ragging on him- he’s a rookie.

2: Oakland over New York Jets
If the Giants beat Pittsburgh, then the Jets are sitting pretty. First time in a long time that Jets fans are cheering for the Giants. But Gannon, that surprising MVP candidate, will pull it off at home.
P.S. SeaBass, PLEASE kick that 70 yarder you promised in the preseason? I’ve got money riding on you.

1: Indianapolis over Buffalo
Flip a coin.

20

Care to put your sig where your mouth is? What was abberant about last weeks game, hmmm? The Niners offense has always clicked, the defense has improved every week for the last three weeks. The Aint’s will lose at the Stick.