Bear in mind that Norv’s reputation as an offensive coordinator was mostly established in a different league. His Chargers offenses were good, but not great except in 2010 - and that was with unquestionably the best RB and TE in the game.
I like to see Omniscient’s predictions on the Bears as he’s fairly insightful and types pretty well with his two thumbs. It looks like he hasn’t been around in a few weeks, so I’ll literally throw my proverbial two cents in.
The Chicago Bears
2012 record: 10 - 6 (3rd in NFC North)
If you hadn’t noticed, there was a little bit of a shake up with the Bears this year. Despite having a winning season, GM Phil Emery fired coach Lovie Smith and hired CFL coach Marc Trestman. Also this one guy named Brian Urlacher, who played for a few years with Chicago as middle linebacker, retired after not getting a new contract with the team or interest in any other franchise. Last year, the Bears defense was one of the best in the NFL but the offense just couldn’t produce consistently. They did a good job of defeating the weaker opponents, but just couldn’t run with the elite teams, hence Smith’s termination.
Other key losses include Nick Roach, a decent linebacker who is getting the opportunity to play MLB in Oakland; Gabe Carimi, former first round pick was traded to Tampa, and Kellen Davis, who might be better at catching the football if a mad scientist replaced his hands with a couple of greasy spatulas. Additionally, Evan Rodriguez was released after two separate alcohol-related arrests this summer.
The three key free agents signed by the Bears for this season include linebackers DJ Williams, James Anderson, and the Black Unicorn Martellus Bennett. The Bears have a lot of people on one year contracts this year as well as many veterans on the last year of their current contracts. The team may look noticeably different next year.
The Bears drafts include G Kyle Long, who is another stretch for a first round pick and doesn’t have much experience, but the Bears hope his athleticism and pedigree will make up for it; Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene, two linebackers; OT Jordan Mills, who is pushing J’Marcus Webb out of the starting right tackle position, DE Cornelius Washington and WR Marquess Wilson.
Reasons for Optimism:
[ul]Despite new personnel and coaching staff, the defense will play a similar scheme and play calling.
Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall. Hey it got us 1508 yards and 11 TDs last season, right?
Strong running back tandem of Matt Forte and Michael Bush.
Anything is better than last year’s offensive line and play calling.
The rookie linebackers have looked very good in preseason so far. I know preseason doesn’t count unless it does.
Special teams should remain strong.
[/ul]
Reasons for concern:
[ul]Cutler to Marshall. The QB needs to throw to someone else as well. Marshall acted as the main play maker/security blanket all last year and they need to spread the ball more.
Jay Cutler in general. This is his 4th offensive system with the Bears. There’s hope that Trestman is enough of a QB guru to help Cutler, but there is definitely work to be done.
Jay Cutler (yeah, I know, again). I don’t think he’s as big of an ass as everybody else in the universe apparently thinks, but I admit that he appears stand-offish and sullen quite a bit. Dude can’t even walk through a parking garage without getting crap from ESPN
Can the defense produce turnovers like they did last year?
Can the new regime produce a winning season?
[/ul]
Prediction:
Ugh, I hate this part. Of course, the fan in me wants to see a Super Bowl, and there’s no reason why they couldn’t beat more than half the teams on the schedule but who can say they will be better than last years team? Again, I’m being hopeful that the offense can produce and put points on the board, but they have to win the division and that mean beating Green Bay. There’s no reason they can’t go 10 - 6 again this year, maybe even 11 - 5, and get into the playoffs. I can’t see them getting to the NFC championship though.
Week 1. Cincinnati Bengals Win
Week 2. Minnesota Vikings Win
Week 3. @ Pittsburgh Steelers Loss
Week 4. @Detroit Lions Win
Week 5. New Orleans Saints Win
Week 6. New York Giants Loss
Week 7. @ Washington Redskins Loss
Week 9. @ Green Bay Packers Loss
Week 10. Detroit Lions Win
Week 11. Baltimore Ravens Loss
Week 12. @ St. Louis Rams Win
Week 13. @ Minnesota Vikings Win
Week 14. Dallas Cowboys Win
Week 15. @ Cleveland Browns Win
Week 16. @ Philladelphia Eagles Win
Week 17. Green Bay Packers Win
5-1 in the division? Good luck with that.
Yeah it’s a bit of a stretch, but I can see the Bears and the Packers splitting victories while the Vikings can’t throw the ball and the Lions can’t not melt down.
The Vikings couldn’t throw last year either, and beat the Bears down the stretch. The defense is a year older and Marc Trestman isn’t going to improve the offense significantly without any personnel upgrades.
I would have picked these 5 games exactly opposite.
I would have picked the Bengals, but the others seem reasonable. I’m withholding judgment on whether this year’s Saints are the ones from the first half of last season or the second half.
I see the Broncos going 12-4 this season. Broncos seem to be well rounded @ offense. Young RBs, good/great WRs, O-line is fine, just need JD Watson to return @ center later in the season.
Concern D-line, safeties, & MLB.
Von Miller is suspended for 4 (5?) games and the RB position is a huge questionmark. That offense could be scary but I see the Broncos underachieving a bit this year.
They’re also paying top 10 money for Jermon Bushrod to man the LT position. I think he’ll be the most important free agent signing of this offseason, for better or worse.
The Bears will be hard-pressed to match last year’s staggering value of their defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Bears’ defense had a DVOA ((Defense Adjusted Value Over Average, which is a fancy stat to attempt to track a defense’s value) of -26.8 (for defenses, negative numbers are better). That was almost twice as much as the second place most valuable defense (Houston Texans at -14.2), and the highest of any team in the last 5 years. They were simply amazing (and, to my Green and Gold tinted eyes, extremely lucky at times). I don’t think there is much chance that the defense, which has aged another year, can match that this year.
Pro Football Focus, another football geek stat place, pointed out that while Bostic has made some big plays and big hits, he’s still a rookie and is still graded negatively in the Charger game because he wasn’t that good against the run. It will be interesting to see how he develops.
Given that Devin Hester is counting almost $3 million against the cap this year and was a miserable failure as a WR #1, he’d better be special again.
As a Packer fan, I sincerely hope that Cutler plays the same as he always does, maybe even slightly better statistically, and the Bears pay him $20 million a year for 5 years while he continues to be the inefficient, turnover prone, excuse making, average NFL QB he always has been. Although it’s been said the last two years, this is his prove it year and he has no excuses anymore. It should be fun to watch what happens to him.
Sure there is. They can’t possibly match last years’ defensive output, Peppers/Briggs/Tillman are all a year older, and it’s a new offense with a sub-average efficiency QB who is asked to run a offense predicated on efficiency. I would be shocked if they went 11-5, and I think 8-8 is much more likely. Vegas has their win total over/under at 8.5, and that sounds about right to me.
I posted this to the Preseason and Training Camp thread. It should tide you over. I’m hoping to be able to post a full write-up and prediction for the Bears sometime after the rosters are closer to finalized.
Six, officially. Gives the Cowboy’s poor O-line a little bit of help for game 5.