NFL Team Analysis and Prediction Thread 2013

The Game Room
1

I know camps have only been going a week or two, but dammit, I’m ready to get on with it! Let’s break out the optimism machine and see what’s what. I’ll go first.

The Carolina Panthers (sigh.)

2012: 7 - 9 (won 5 of last 6)

The reasons for optimism:
[ul]
[li]Cam Newton is entering year 3. We’ll see how good he can be. I think the answer is “pretty damn good.”[/li][li]Deep RB group, and I expect more use of Mike Tolbert.[/li][li]Even at 34, Steve Smith is a top-10 receiver.[/li][li]The defensive line, with the addition of Star Lotulelei, should be formidable. [/li][li]Luke Kuechly is a tackling machine, and if Thomas Davis stays healthy again, the linebacking corp will be solid.[/li][li]Ted Ginn should improve an anemic special teams group.[/li][/ul]

The reasons for concern:
[ul]
[li]Who’s the #2 receiver? Brandon LaFell showed some signs of breaking out, but never did. Ginn is fast, but not much else. They brought in D. Hixon for depth, but there’s a lot of questions here.[/li][li]The secondary. Ooooof.[/li][li]Tough schedule. Ranked the hardest, for what it’s worth. Atlanta should be good, The Saints get their leader back. [/li][li]I’m not sold on Ron Rivera. At all. [/li][/ul]

This is a seriously below-the-radar team, even with Cam, but I think they are headed in the right direction. I like Dave Gettleman so far, but they are still digging out from a LOT of ridiculous contracts Marty Hurney gave out.

Prediction: 8 - 8. No playoffs. Rivera gets fired.

[/LIST]

2

No one? Too early?

3

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=697464

4

I’ve seen that thread. This one was geared more towards an analysis heading into the season and predictions. I may have jumped the gun a little… :smiley:

5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 record: 7-9. Where the Panthers floundered early and got good as soon as they were eliminated, the Bucs did their floundering just when it looked like they might win the division.

All things considered, there were a lot of good signs last year. The offense was unstoppable at times, both run- and pass-wise, despite missing the league’s best guard tandem for most of the year. The offense finished #9 overall, which I think makes it the best Bucs offense ever. Josh Freeman set franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Doug Martin had nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage. The run defense was #1 overall. The team was competitive in every game except a late-season road drubbing by the Saints, who were the hottest team in the league at the time.

Of course, a losing record means there was a lot to worry about, too. The secondary was historically bad. The team was dead last against the pass, allowing nearly 5000 yards. That was a big reason why the run defense was so good; nobody bothered to run the ball. Josh Freeman was okay for the first third of the season, on fire for the middle third (285 YPG, 16-3 TD/INT split from weeks 6-11), and awful during the last third (2 TDs and 9 INTs during the last three weeks). It was obvious that he and the wideouts weren’t on the same page on option routes; he wasn’t making inaccurate throws, he was just throwing the ball where the receiver wasn’t.

So, 2013. Did the team get better in the offseason? Well, the worst secondary in history won’t be anymore. All-everything cornerback Darrelle Revis and safety Dashon Goldson are probably worth 1,000 fewer passing yards all by themselves. Mark Barron has another year in the system and should be much better in coverage. The team trotted out a half-dozen undrafted rookies to play corner last year and the best one (Leonard Johnson) is back and should be decent in nickel coverage. The problem is the starting corner opposite Revis. The team gave Eric Wright $15 million guaranteed last year and he was out basically the whole season. They traded him to San Fran after the draft, where he failed a physical, and he was sent back and promptly cut. 2nd-rounder Jonathan Banks is penciled in to start based on the camp depth chart, which is obviously a worry. Of course, if Revis is healthy Banks will have help on almost every play. In any event, the secondary can hardly get worse than last year. Ronde Barber is gone, but he was spotty last year playing free safety.

The front seven is pretty good; Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David were superb last year, and Adrian Clayborn will back back off injury. The depth at end is pretty spotty though, since Michael Bennett left in free agency.

As for the offense, by rights it should be the best in team history. The line is healthy (and has three Pro Bowlers and a fourth player who’ll make one eventually). The wide receivers (#1 and #2 at least) are excellent. The running back is excellent. The question marks are at QB, TE and third-plus wideout.

Freeman has been inconsistent to say the least, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. He’s got a lot of the usual excuses - different coordinator every year, youth, and so on. In Freeman’s case, it might be true; he’s been around forever, but he’s younger than Andy Dalton and barely a year older than Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. If he can figure out the option route thing, he can be superb. His problem is connecting on passes under 20 yards; he seems to hit on everything deep. Doug Martin was a good pass catcher last year but the team could really use a quality tight end to cover up Freeman’s short passing weakness. He should probably run a bit more, too; he ran for 238 yards and four TDs in 2011 but barely ran at all in 2012.

The Bucs have been trotting out ancient tight ends for a few years without much success; Kellen Winslow was good at times but not often, and Dallas Clark was mostly invisible last year. Luke Stocker, last year’s #2, will start this year. He has soft hands but hardly had any passes thrown at him (12 catches as a rookie, 16 last year). He should be at least as effective as Clark, at any rate.

So, wideouts. V-Jax and Mike Williams are big guys who can dominate outside. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have a credible slot receiver. The guys fighting for the #3+ wideout spots are all retreads from last year, plus Kevin Ogletree who signed as a free agent. He had one huge game in Dallas and promptly disappeared for two years, so I’m not expecting much.

Kicker is a bit of an issue. Quietly superb incumbent Connor Barth is out with a torn Achilles and will be replaced by occasionally-awful Lawrence Tynes.

So, expectations. The team hardly lost anything in free agency/retirement (Barber was more a coach than a player at this point), and significantly improved its one glaring weakness. Strength of schedule is middling, literally - opponents had a .500 winning percentage last year. The other teams in the division have harder schedules, including the Panthers (#1) and Saints (#3). I think this can be a 12-win team if Freeman plays well for a whole season. There are no big holes, provided a tight end or #3 wideout breaks out. There are some huge strengths. I think the season plays out like this:

1 SEP 8 1:00PMEDT ) AT JETS - win
2 SEP 15 4:05PMEDT ) SAINTS - win
3 SEP 22 1:00PMEDT ) AT PATRIOTS - loss
4 SEP 29 1:00PMEDT ) CARDINALS - win
5 BYE
6 OCT 13 1:00PMEDT ) EAGLES - win
7 OCT 20 1:00PMEDT ) AT FALCONS - loss
8 OCT 24 8:25PMEDT , PANTHERS - win
9 NOV 3 4:05PMEST ) AT SEAHAWKS - loss
10 NOV 11 8:40PMEST + DOLPHINS - win
11 NOV 17 1:00PMEST ) FALCONS - win
12 NOV 24 1:00PMEST ) AT LIONS - win
13 DEC 1 1:00PMEST ) AT PANTHERS - win
14 DEC 8 1:00PMEST * BILLS - win
15 DEC 15 1:00PMEST ) 49ERS - loss
16 DEC 22 1:00PMEST ) AT RAMS - win
17 DEC 29 1:00PMEST ) AT SAINTS - loss

That’s 11-5. I’m iffy on the Lions game (on the road), which I penciled in as a win. I’m also iffy on the Seahawks game; I think that team will come way back down to earth this year, especially with zero healthy wide receivers. Of course, we could easily lose both games to the Saints or Falcons, rather than just one, and I’d be happy with a 10-6 season if it means the playoffs. This team is built to win for at least three or four seasons, with no cap crunch coming assuming they re-sign Freeman for a reasonable number.

6

That’s what I’m talking about! However, I think you are being overly optimistic in thinking the Bucs will take both games from the Panthers…

7

Meh. We did it last year. What’s weird is the Buccaneers finished 4th in the NFC South despite sweeping the Panthers and having the same record. Apparently conference record is the first tiebreaker (the Bucs, Saints and Panthers were all 7-9 with 3-3 division records).

8

I think that says more about the Bucs lack of good QB’s than Freeman’s abilities.

Against The Chiefs, the Saints, the Vikings, the Raiders, and the Chargers (The worst, the the 5th worst, the 8th worst, the 3rds worst, and the 14th worst passing defenses as measured by opponent QB’s passer rating in the NFL).
[QUOTE=rnatb]
and awful during the last third (2 TDs and 9 INTs during the last three weeks).
[/QUOTE]
Those 5 straight loses to take them out of the playoffs was brutal.

I’m pretty sure you know my feelings on Josh Freeman. I think this is an important year for him, because it’s clear that the Bucs are a young, up and coming team. I just think he’s not the guy to lead them anywhere special.

9

Okay, I’m going to try to do this without even mentioning a certain 2nd-year QB recovering from a knee injury and subsequent rehab from surgery (even though I just did), because there is certainly no shortage of talk about him already, whether it is newsworthy or not (almost 100% not).

After more than two decades of futility, things are finally looking up in the nation’s capital. The Redskins have a legitimate shot at repeating as NFC East champs, granted by virtue of bringing back essentially the same team and the rest of the division not doing much to improve themselves either.

The secondary, the most glaring weakness last season, will benefit from the addition of EJ Biggers (CB), draft picks David Amerson (CB), Phillip Thomas (S), and Baccari Rambo (S), as well as the (hopefully) healthy return of Brandon Meriweather (S), if only because they have to be an improvement over the patchwork, sub-par group the team fielded last season, not to mention the return of their best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo (OLB), to help take some pressure off of the DBs.

Unfortunately they’ve lost Adam Carriker (DE) for 4-5 months, and there’s not really much behind him to make up the difference. His primary backup would have been Jarvis Jenkins, but he’s suspended for the first 4 games for PEDs :smack:.

The good news is, barring injuries, the offense will at least remain as potent as they were last year; I am quite confident that the Shanaclan will continue to figure out a way to outsmart defenses, while rolling back the read-option, though it will certainly not go away completely. Alfred Morris will probably not have as prolific a year as his debut, he should still gain at least 1000 yards.

The OL will remain the same, and while they are mostly not especially good individual players, they are a cohesive unit that understands the zone-blocking system and have played together long enough that they are effective.

The receiving corp gets a boost with the return of TE Fred Davis, and the addition of rookie Jordan Reed (TE) adds an exciting two-TE-set element that could prove difficult to stop. The wideout group is led by Pierre Garcon, who showed last year that he has #1 WR talent, if only he can stay healthy. Santana Moss is on the tail end of his career but can still make plays.

Overall, I’m pretty optimistic about this coming season, for reasons other than straight homerism, unlike the previous 20 or so seasons. I wasn’t at all expecting a division crown last year but hey, I’ll happily take it. Of course that means they’ve got a pretty stiff #1 schedule, but I like our odds. I think it will come down to the last couple of games again, but I think they can make the playoffs again this year.

10

Okay, I’ll bite. But I’m not sure what I can come up with considering that there isn’t a more mysterious team in the NFL than the Eagles (and this is the most mysterious Eagles team in my memory).

2012: 4-12 (4th in NFC East)
It was really easy to be optimistic about Chip Kelly and the new regime until training camp started. I couldn’t genetically engineer a more perfect coach in terms of overall philosophy than Chip Kelly. (As an aside, my biggest concern with Kelly is that he’s starting to look like that guy who always thinks he’s the smartest guy in every room, and I think I’ve said this on this board before. He’s too dependent on Pac-12 guys and his former players. In my experience, people that exhibit that type of personality are too easily convinced by their own opinion. They form echo chambers and surround themselves with yes-men. When that happens, nobody can point out when they’re wrong or misguided and their pursuits usually end catastrophically. On the flip side, at least Kelly has already shown some of the opposite in his “team of rivals” coaching staff by, for example, bringing in west coast guy Pat Shurmur)

Still, even Chip Kelly can’t fix what is quickly becoming an annual Eagles curse: the preseason. The good vibes and rampant optimism have cratered since training camp opened.

If there’s a team who deals with more injuries than the Eagles, I’d certainly like to know who. I know it’s a common gripe, I get it. But nearly every year, a major Eagles contributor goes down for the season in the first week of TC (Peters last year, Maclin this year). Football Outsiders measures injuries with a metric called “Adjusted Games Lost,” and no team in the 11 year history of their tracking this metric has dealt with more offensive line injuries than the Eagles did last year. And now with the Riley Cooper fiasco… the suddenness of the pole shift from optimism to abject pessimism is astonishing and dizzying. This organization can’t get out of its own way.

At this point, with how little information has been revealed, making any projections will ultimately prove futile and embarrassing, but that hasn’t stopped me before.

Anyone who claims to know what the Eagles offense will look like is lying. But there is one absolute: Chip Kelly will tailor his gameplans to whoever he’s playing, and whoever he’s starting. Based on the Oregon tape I’ve seen, Kelly is really good at it. Really, really good. So I have confidence that the offense will be able to at least create opportunities. I’m especially interested in seeing how Kelly is going to abuse matchups with his trio of TEs: Celek, 2nd rounder Zach Ertz, and Jack-of-all-trades James Casey.

The Eagles will run. A lot. But if the defense isn’t considerably improved, they won’t be able to run as much as they want. And while I love the idea of splitting Celek and Ertz out wide to pass from run personnel (or pulling them in line to run from a spread look), DeSean Jackson won’t be good enough by himself for the team to rely on the pass to catch up in games they fall behind. Without Maclin, there isn’t a second WR to attack with. The Eagles have some really useful young guys, but they’re all limited.

The defense should at least be improved, but only because you can’t really get much worse. Overall, the unit is going to be a weekly work in progress. Fletcher Cox is a stud and will make multiple Pro Bowls (unless he succumbs to the Philly tradition of Eagles players being wildly underrated for their position. See: Cole, Trent and Mathis, Evan, for recent examples). DeMeco Ryans was solid and Mychal Kendricks should be more able to display the tremendous promise he showed in last year’s preseason now that he won’t be asked to take on blockers directly as often. If one of Trent Cole or Brandon Graham can transition to an OLB effectively, the front 7 should be pretty good.

Obviously the secondary is the question. Cary Williams is the right type of player for this defense: physical, able to press, and a stellar tackler - but he’s an iffy cover corner and was exposed last season regularly for Baltimore. That’s not a problem at all if you have solid safety play, but safety is the biggest question mark on the entire defense. It can’t be worse than last season. Ideally, Kenny Phillips gets healthy because he’s a Pro Bowl caliber player when he is. But he isn’t now and he won’t be. Hopefully the Eagles can just find two guys who can at least tackle. They’ll give up big plays, but they’ll see significant improvement if they just stop letting small plays turn into gigantic ones.

To finish off, the guys to watch out for are CB Brandon Boykin, who is legitimately the best player the Eagles on defense other than Fletcher Cox. He played exclusively in the slot last season but is way too good to stay there; DE Cedric Thornton, who was rated as a top player at his position in multiple categories last season and is still really young; and CB Bradley Fletcher, who was one of the best cover corners in the league last season but took an unfair level of flak for getting benched in StL due to his penalties.

Projection:
The Eagles have a comparatively easy schedule this season, but they probably can’t take advantage of it. The Riley Cooper thing is another in a seemingly endless line of offseason scandals and landmines this organization has had to endure over the least few seasons. It’s going to spill into the season and taint, at the very least, the first quarter of the season. Because the Eagles needed Cooper with Maclin down, it’ll have a pronounced effect on the team when it becomes clear that they need him on the field and he isn’t there. (I’m leaning to him not coming back to the team, contrary to every report out of Philly)

Wk 1 - @ WAS
The Eagles could steal this game is RGIII isn’t fully healthy. Even if he is, he likely won’t have had a preseason and may need this game to get into game shape. With Kendricks being one of the fastest LBs in the entire league, the Eagles have a shot to keep RGIII in the pocket and contained, but he’s still so dangerous even there. The most likely scenario is a loss here, but do not be surprised if the Eagles steal it and continue their trend of starting the season building up false hope in their fan base. - LOSS (0-1)

Wk 2 - vs. SD
The Chargers are a bit of a mess. Philly’s attacking scheme matches well with San Diego’s haphazard offense and the Chargers don’t have the weapons to take advantage of Philly’s weaknesses in coverage. - WIN (1-1)

Wk 3 - vs. KC
There’s a whole lot to say about this game. Three games in eleven days for Philly (totally fucking fair). Andy Reid returns to Philly. It would tickle me to no end to see him come into the Linc, pass all over the field and not use Jamaal Charles at all, blow a couple early timeouts, fail to make any meaningful adjustments at halftime, and piss away a game he should have won by getting outcoached. Really, everything he’s done for the last seven to ten years. If there’s any justice in the universe, that exact scenario will happen and the Eagles win. They should win, with KC coming on the road on a short week. But they won’t, because things don’t ever work out the way they should for this organization. - **LOSS (1-2)
**
Wk 4 - @ DEN
No Von Miller… hmm…

No. Can’t even fanboy up a scenario in which the Eagles win. This is the beginning of a brutal stretch for the Eagles, and Denver is too much. I’ll call it now - Boykin shuts Welker down (assuming he’s still in the slot), but Denver has too many weapons and the Eagles are too vulnerable to Thomas and Decker. They’ll cover a too-large spread, but lose in one of those games where the final score is closer than the game. - LOSS (1-3)

Wk 5 - @ NYG
The Giants’ arrow is pointing down to me, but they’re still a better lineup top to bottom than Philly. The Eagles are generally better against the Giants on the road. Close game, but a late turnover seals it. - LOSS (1-4)

Wk 6 - @ TB
Three straight road games, each with a significant travel distance between them. TOTALLY FUCKING FAIR. The Eagles beat Tampa last season without their starting QB, starting RB, #1 WR, Starting LT, C, and RT. Still, the Bucs are coming off their bye this week and they’re a better team than Philly. I’ll give the Eagles a really close game, but not the win. - LOSS (1-5)

Wk 7 - vs. DAL
Dallas is falling under the radar. They strike me as that type of team that under performs for years before putting it together for a short run of success that suckers everyone back in and makes everyone think they never got off the bandwagon to begin with. Dallas starts out hot (3-1 or 4-0), but after losing at home to Denver and blowing a close game against Washington, and the Cowboys drop a winnable road game. As much as I want to pick Dallas from a hunch, this is the beginning of the end for Dallas. - WIN (2-5)

Wk 8 - vs. NYG
Do the Giants have a let down game on the road the week before their bye? I’ll make another bold prediction: Eli Manning misses a start this season. But the Giants still win. - LOSS (2-6)

Wk 9 - @ OAK
Oakland is a mess. A dumpster fire. They’re my #1 pick in next season’s draft. - WIN (3-6)

Wk 10 - @ GB
Philly to Oakland to Wisconsin. Another brutal travel stretch. And the Eagles are exhausted by this point. The only hope is a let down game from Green Bay since they play Chicago the week before… but no. - LOSS (3-7)

Wk 11 - vs. WAS
I don’t think the Redskins are as good as their record last year suggested. They won seven in a row, but got them against teams that went a combined 48-64. They had the good fortune of playing an imploding Philly team twice in that stretch, and when RGIII got hurt, they happened to play the Browns. Maybe their final outcome looks differently if RGIII misses a game against Baltimore or Dallas or the Giants instead. Still, unless RGIII is out again, the Skins should be good enough to win one here. - LOSS (3-8)

Wk 12 - BYE
A very late bye this season, clearly. The Eagles could have used it early this season, but by this point they’re evaluating their roster for the upcoming season and spending extra time watching college football in preparation for the draft.

Wk 13 - vs. AZ
I should try to go to this game, come to think of it. I think I’ll see a win, too. Because the Eagles are far out of contention and should be wrapping up the top overall pick. But things don’t work out the way they should for this organization. - WIN (4-8)

Wk 14 - vs. DET
Four straight weeks at home is a boon that makes up for the shitty scheduling in the first half of the season. The Eagles really, really should have beaten Detroit last season and ended up losing a close game in OT. Everyone thinks the Lions have vastly improved, but we hear that every year. How have they improved? Reggie Bush? On turf? Detroit will improve simply out of reversion to the mean. Is it enough to beat Philly? I’d guess that Megatron is just too much in a close one. - LOSS (4-9)

Wk 15 - @ MIN
Was Minnesota really that good? I understand Adrian Peterson was other-worldly and earned his MVP. I just still can’t believe they went 10-6. Still… the hope is that Jennings and Patterson can spread the field enough to give Peterson some running lanes. I’m just not sure Ponder is good enough to let it happen. It’s weird, I thought Ponder looked really crisp as a rookie and thought he had a lot of promise. The impression is that he’s a bum and he held the team back last season… and yet his numbers were right on curve for an improving QB with promise. He’s going to have to throw downfield more to continue, and without Harvin being so good at the line of scrimmage and tempting the team to gameplan to that, I think they open up a bit. Very close game, evenly matched teams, but the run D isn’t up to task. - LOSS (4-10)

Wk 16 - vs. CHI
If Jay Cutler is healthy…** - LOSS (4-11)**
If Jay Cutler isn’t healthy… - LOSS (4-11)

Wk 17 - @ DAL
I’ve written this paragraph three times now, changing my mind each time. It’s so tempting to take the unlikely outcome that Romo carries the team to a playoff spot and finally shatters the familiar, tired, low hanging fruit of a storyline that he’s a choker. At least then the national media will have to actually write their stories instead of copy and pasting. Still… I think Dallas collapsing is just a little more likely. Garrett isn’t the coach by this point. Chip Kelly embarrasses the interim coach (I’d love to say he crushes Kiffin one more time before Kiffin finally retires, but I don’t think Kiffin would accept) and Tony Romo is listless and disinterested, just going through the motions of another nightmare ending. The 4-3 has failed and the offensive line has devolved into a crime against the institution of the NFL. - WIN (5-11)

I thought this offseason was the longest ever… next offseason will really be a test. Chip Kelly and the Eagles will be just innovative enough and end on a high note to tease real promise heading into 2014 and beyond.

11

Can’t argue with any of that. He doesn’t have to be great, though; just good.

12

San Francisco 49ers (w00t)

2012: 11-4-1 (2-1 in playoffs, 13-5-1 overall, lost Super Bowl :frowning: )

The reasons for optimism:
[ul]
[li]Colin Kaepernick[/li][li]Best O-Line in the NFL.[/li][li]Best middle linebacker in the league, standing next to the next best. There’s debate over who’s 1 and who’s 2. The OLB group is pretty darn good, too.[/li][li]Returning most of a championship caliber team. In fact, some replacements for departed players could actually be improvements.[/li][li]Deep running back group. Frank Gore may be on the wrong side of 30, but he’s still got plenty in the tank. Behind him are multiple capable runners.[/li][li]Colin Kaepernick.[/li][/ul]

The reasons for concern:
[ul]
[li]Injuries. After years of staying mostly healthy, players are going down left and right, everything from torn Achilles and ACLs to broken hands and tweaked everything else.[/li][li]The secondary was a weak point last year (not that any pass defense is impenetrable), and the current corners are mediocre. If the pass rush doesn’t rush opposing QBs, every game may become a shootout.[/li][li]Wide receivers. Anquan Boldin looks solid, but beyond him there’s very little to be happy about. Newly-signed Austin Collie might help, and rookie Quinton Patton might step up when his hand heals. Good thing the run game is solid. [/li][li]Lots of travel. Even without their trip to London, the 49ers travel more than any other team. They’ve managed OK in the last few years, but it could wear them out. [/li][/ul]

If it weren’t for the fact that the 49ers play on the West Coast, all eyes would be on them as they try to match the 71/72 Dolphins and return from a Super Bowl loss to win the next one. I’m very optimistic at my guy Kaepernick, by all accounts he looks fantastic so far in camp, much better than in practices last year (this from reporters who’ve seen both). I don’t think anybody’s going to be able to stop him, and it’s not designed read-option runs that will do it, those will happen, but it’s his big, accurate arm and scrambling ability that will make him an MVP candidate. Whether they can win Super Bowl XLVIII will really depend on how healthy they can stay come December-February.

Prediction: 12-4, Win Super Bowl

Week 1 - Sept 8 vs Green Bay Packers - W
Week 2 - Sept 15 at Seattle Seahawks - L
Week 3 - Sept 22 vs Indianapolis Colts - W
Week 4 - Sept 26 at St. Louis Rams - W
Week 5 - Oct 6 vs Houston Texans - L
Week 6 - Oct 13 vs Arizona Cardinals - W
Week 7 - Oct 20 at Tennessee Titans - W
Week 8 - Oct 27 vs Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium (London, England) - W
Week 9 - Bye
Week 10 - Nov 10 vs Carolina Panthers - W
Week 11 - Nov 17 at New Orleans Saints - W
Week 12 - Nov 25 at Washington Redskins - L
Week 13 - Dec 1 vs St. Louis Rams - W
Week 14 - Dec 8 vs Seattle Seahawks - W
Week 15 - Dec 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - W
Week 16 - Dec 23 vs Atlanta Falcons - L
Week 17 - December 29 at Arizona Cardinals - W

13

Cleveland Browns.

2012 Record 5-11

Reasons for optimism: You all know I’m a Browns homer and you’ll probably roll your eyes if I sound optimistic, but if you’ve actually listened to me over the last few years I haven’t been optimistic. I’ll praise individual players or units here and there, but as a whole I haven’t felt good about this team in quite a while. This year is the first year in a while where I’m feeling pretty good about the team.

The biggest changes are the coaching staff. I’m not enamored with the front office personnel, but the actual coaching staff is dramatically better than anything the Browns have seen since the return. Turner and Horton may be the best OC/DC combo in the league. Chud is new and unproven, but young and smart and aggressive, he feels like he might be head coaching material, unlike Crennel and Shurmur.

The offense has looked like a real NFL offense in preseason. I know HERP DERP PRESEASON DOESN’T MATTER but it does. In the last few years the Browns offense has looked completely lost in preseason and that has carried over into the regular season. Schematically and in terms of coaching they simply haven’t had NFL caliber leadership. It’s different this year - they look like an actual NFL offense. Weeden is making some great throws, they’ve completely stonewalled some good pass rushing teams (best pass blocking line in the NFL), the playcalling is actually creating opportunities.

Josh Gordon is a retarded dipshit who, if he manages to get his shit together, will be one of the best in the NFL. He’s just an amazingly fluid athlete - one of those guys who doesn’t look like he’s trying very hard because he’s just so natural at it. And an exceptional pass catcher too. He’s at serious risk for getting a year long suspension and ruining his career because he’s a dipshit kid, but if he gets it together, he’s special.

On defense, it’s a mixed bag. I like Horton’s aggressive style, it’s at least fun to watch. The front 7 is surprisingly competent and will surprise people - the Browns D-line is very underrated. Sheard is making a surprisingly smooth change from 4-3 DE to 3-4 OLB. Front 7 is quite good, secondary is quite bad outside of Haden. There are going to be a lot of plays where the rush almost gets there but they end up getting burnt for a 30 yard pass because the corners and safeties fucked up. Should be a good amount of sacks coming out of this team, and a good amount of big plays given up.

Reasons for concern: I had higher hopes for the run blocking under Norv Turner. The Browns have the best T-C-T combo in the league but always try to scrape by with scrubby guards, which is annoying since finding a quality guard requires relatively little investment. A unit that could be in contention for the best in the NFL with some merely above average guards instead falls into the 5-10 range somewhere. Oh well, they’re all young and they’ll grow together.

Front office staff is concerning. Banner is a divisive, weird dude. Hard to evaluate him. Michael Lombardi… yeah. I have way more faith in the coaching staff than I do the front office.

I tend to be someone who thinks that the HC and coordinators matter way more than the average person seems to think, so it’s an enormous relief to finally feel like we’re fielding a good one. I think that alone will make a huge difference - the team was horribly coached the last 2 years and it stunted the development of one of the youngest teams in the league and failed to show. I think in a weaker divisions the Browns could be one of those surprise teams to come out of nowhere and win their division, but the AFC North is always tough.

Wins: MIA, @MIN, CIN, BUF, DET, @KC, PIT, JAX, @NYJ
Losses: @BAL, @GB, BAL, @CIN, @NE, CHI, @PIT

9-7

14

• I can’t see any reason that the Panthers improve this season over last. Not when they are clearly the 4th best team in their own division. I don’t think they’ll bottom out, but someone has to lose games in the NFC and I can’t really see the Panthers going better than 2-4 against their own division.

• I thought 11-5 for Tampa was absurd until I looked at their schedule, I can see 9 or 10 wins without much improvement, and they have improved. They got the best defensive player in the world (hopefully he’s fully healthy) to go with the best run defense in the NFL. You don’t even have to get much from Freeman to have a playoff team.

• The Redskins surge last season into the playoffs was fool’s gold, as I mentioned in my Philly prediction. I don’t think they win the division and they could easily drop to third.

• 9-7 for the Browns seems crazy considering they didn’t make any game-changing acquisitions. If they can make a huge improvement, it will be because Weeden has made a jump. I’m skeptical because I watched him against Philly last season and he was a bumbling klutz who put on tape the single worst performance by a QB I have ever seen. I’ve watched both his preseason games and he has has seemingly played well. Preseason football is disproportionately forgiving for QBs because they face vanilla defenses that are easy to read, but at least Weeden has looked much more decisive than last season. He has good rhythm on his drops and throws, which is an encouraging sign.

I don’t know. SenorBeef said the Browns stonewalled good pass rushing teams, but their O-Line got manhandled a lot in pass protection against Detroit. Yeah, Detroit has a great D-Line, so that’s fine. I just still see Weeden missing the easy throws, even when he isn’t rushed. He’ll be a lot better this season, and the Browns will improve with him, but this still looks like a team a couple years away, to me.

15

The Browns will be a case study in the difference between good and bad coaching staffs. Weeden is looking better (and while it is preseason, he’s light years ahead of where he was in preseason last year) in large part because he’s now well coached and running a scheme that fits his talents.

The Browns first team O-line didn’t allow much pressure to Detroit from what I recall, but I haven’t rewatched it.

16

I’m a skins fan and I agree that the streak that they went on last season was flukey. I wouldn’t say easily 3rd though. The Cowboys and the Eagles are decidedly not as good as they should be on paper imo. It would take a combination of the Cowboys and Eagles to play to their full potential as well as the Redskins taking many steps backwards in order for them to drop down to 3rd or 4th (I don’t think too many game will separate 3rd from 4th, but significantly from 2nd to 3rd in the division).

17

I see it the other way, the top three will probably be packed together with the Eagles likely a few games behind in the 4th spot. That’s why I think the 'Skins could easily drop to third, because 8-8 was good for third last year and 8-8 isn’t unreasonable for the Redskins.

The great thing about the NFC East is how wide open it is. I can make a case for any of the teams in the division winning it, even the Eagles (gosh it sure is fun to watch a team that actually has good coaching again). All of the teams are interesting and every team should be competitive, even if none of the teams are dominant.

18

Somehow this posted while I was working on it. Don’t know how it happened. I’ll post my charting in the next post.

19

I don’t know how the Brown’s O-Line is as far as health goes (I know one guy left the game with an injury, don’t know if he came back). And Detroit’s D-Line is terrific, so it isn’t an embarrassment to get beaten by them. But I’m counting 5 pressures on Weeden’s 14 dropbacks, and all five in the first eight attempts. So the Browns had a ton of trouble, but they cleaned it up. That might have something to do with some of the D-Line starters going out of the game, but I didn’t check. Here’s my count:
Att 1 (13:40) - Suh hits Weeden on the throw, one other guy on his back, hurried throw
Att 3 (12:48) - Pocket collapses, two people on Weeden (one on his ankles) as Weeden hurries his throw as the third guy is coming in
Att 5 (9:11) - Pocket collapsed all around Weeden. He can’t move to throw and missed his flat route. Hit while throwing by two defenders who shoved their blockers into Weeden.
Att 6 (8:34) - Looks like pressure, but it’s a designed screen
Att 7 (7:17) - RG gets manhandled and pushed right into Weeden who gets hit as he throws by his own guy.
Att 8 (5:09) - Both ends completely dominate their assignments and shove their blockers into Weeden’s face. Weeden has to roll out and Suh destroys him right as he throws. One of the ends was on a TE, so I don’t know if that counts, but the RT got wrecked too.
Att 12 (0:23) - I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the O-Line here because I don’t have the All-22 to see clearly, but it looks like Weeden gets rushed here. Both tackles get shoved backwards on the snap again. I don’t know how many of the starters are still in at this point.

I counted 14 attempts for Weeden, but ESPN has him credited for 12, so a couple of these include those wiped out by penalty. Weeden looks a LOT better than last season. I can definitely understand the optimism going into the season, especially for how rare it is in the factory of sadness.

20

Jules raises some good points, I haven’t rewatched the Brown lions game but I do think Detroit’s D-Line was getting some good pressure and we were almost lucky not to give up a sack. I’m still comfortable with Cleveland’s pass protection assuming one of the injured right guards can come back without too much time off (seems likely). I think Suh is an amazingly talented if somewhat dirty player and part of one of the best D-Lines in the league.

It’s hard to get a good read on Brandon Weeden. It’s clear that he’s playing lightyears better this preseason than last, but it’s still the preseason. Norv Turner has an excellent reputation as an Offensive coordinator and it’s plain to see his scheme fits Weeden’s skill set far better than Pat Shurmur’s did. I will wait till the games count to start getting too excited about his play, but it sure is fun to watch a Brown’s QB and counting the ways he didn’t suck in the last game.

With the obvious exception of the injuries, my biggest disappointment with the Brown’s second preseason game is that Megatron didn’t play for the Lions. I’m liking what little has been shown of Ray Horton’s defensive scheme and the brown’s front seven could be very good this year, they’ll have to be because our secondary could very well suck. Joe Haden very well could take the next step and join the ranks of elite CBs. TJ Ward is a solid “thumper” style strong safety who’s something of a liability when called on to cover Wrs. Past them we got problems. If an opposing QB can get the ball out fast and on target I can see a lot of five yard receptions going for significant gains.

There IS cause for optimism over at the Factory of Sadness, but this is still the AFC North. We could quite possibly double last years win total and still end up in 4rth place in the division.