NFL Week 11

I got it in on time this week!

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Sunday early
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK)
Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (NL)

Sunday late
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Byes: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

Six teams on a bye means a lot of fantasy team transactions this week.

The Falcons are 4.5 point favorites over the Cowboyos?! I know it’s in Atlanta, but hello, the Falcons just got beat soundly by Cleveland. And the Cowboys finally looked really good winning over the Eagles.

I’m going the Seattle/Green Bay game tonight. Two teams with a lot at stake tonight. Should be fun.

I forgot how much I dislike the constantly whining Pete Carroll.

Refs putting forth a valiant effort.

Why didn’t McCarthy challenge that “catch” made by Lockett? It was going to get overturned! Instead, the Seahawks score the deciding TD.

I can’t help it. Pouting Aaron Rodgers is my favorite.

Cause he’s an idiot.

I’m guessing he might be gone after this year if this continues.

I’d be pissed too if I knew I was the best player on my team and I was giving it my all and others around me weren’t.

Remember last week’s questions about “How much better/worse would Rogers and Brady be if they swapped coaches”?

Anyone think Belichick would punt on 4th and 2, down 3 with four minutes to go and only one time out?

I have disliked McCarthy’s management of games for quite some time. Again, lack of time outs late in the game bites the Packers on the ass. So does failure to believe in the offense. Get us a new coach, please!!!

When the Chiefs more-or-less inevitably flameout in the playoffs, there is strong probability that Reid will have made at least one odd game management decision.

Where was the ball?

Their own 33. Which, yes, the chance for them to get a touchdown is high, but that really shouldn’t matter. If you punt, pretty much your only chance to win is to get a 3 and out. If you can’t stop them from scoring a touchdown at your 33, you aren’t going to stop them from getting a first down at their 20.

Lord, with that much time left, you have to punt and trust your defense to get off the field in one series, which would leave you at least two minutes left with one time out and the two minute warning. You give up the ball there, and they can run it down to the two minute warning and kick a field goal, which would mean you’d be in the same situation time wise but needing a touchdown instead of just a field goal.

Yeah, but that’s not factoring the odds where a punt is 99.9% chance of turning over the ball, vs. what, a 50% chance of turning over the ball on a 2 yard play?

But if you trust your defense to get off the field in one series, why are you so scared of going for it?
By the way, there’s good data on succeeding at 4th and 2 (since it’s the same as a 2-point conversion) – 50-60% chance. Also, the Seahawks went three-and-out on almost exactly half of their series in the game. So calling them both 50/50 chances, here’s the possibilities:

Going for it
50% (convert 4th down) – 4 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie, TD to win
25% (turn over on downs, Seahawks get 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back
25% (over on downs, Seahawks kick field goal) – 2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a TD to win.

50 % (Seahawks forced to punt) – <2 minutes to drive 70 yards for a FG to tie TD to win
50 % - (Seahawks make 1st down) – lose w/o getting the ball back.

You don’t even need to know the odds of Rogers succeeding on the last drive – there’s no way the second option can be better.

Eh, given that Rodgers ignored an open Jones in the middle of the field on first down and Joe Webbed a ball to MVS on third, there’s no guarantee he completes the pass for the first, and Jones was apparently not allowed to touch the ball in the second (and I don’t know why).

As much as I would love to blame McCarthy for all of the offense’s ills, a good share of that blame falls on Rodgers. Watching All-22 replays constantly shows open receivers that Rodgers either isn’t seeing or just plain ignoring. Our offense generally gets yards in chunks or goes 3 and out, ignoring the dink and dunk things that set those big plays up. I think Rodgers is stuck in hero-ball mode, even when the calm, patient offense is getting it done. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some 60 yard heaves to a UDFA rookie tight end, but that’s not a solid basis for an offense.

That said, McCarthy is the leader of this team. If the team ain’t getting it done, the buck stops there. The nice guy act isn’t getting it done.

I blame McCarthy more than Rodgers. Not going for it on 4th and 2, getting away from the running game with Jones when it was working AND you had the lead, burning timeouts in the 2nd half, not challenging the Lockett reception, etc.

Rodgers certainly didn’t play his best game but man, this is the guy that came into this game with ONE interception. ONE!!

You put the ball in that guy’s hands no matter what.

No, it’s not Rodgers’ fault. As he said after the game, he tried to throw the ball but it stuck to his hand. How can even a great QB win a game with a ball stuck to his hand?