Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46
Everyone loves the Packers this year and the offense should be solid again with Rodgers, good WRs and a unexpectedly good Lacy at RB. But, they are walking into the Champ’s house and that house is the house of boom. The Packers still have a iffy O line, a bad recipe against this D, and I see no reason why the Pack’s defense will be any better this year than last. Big day for Russell Wilson and the Seattle D keeps Rodgers from settling in.
The pick: Seahawks 30, Packers 17
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5
Saints are a trendy pick to win it all, but like the Packers I’m not exactly sure what they did to get so much better this year. It’s basically the same offense, swapping a Sproles for a Cooks feels like a downgrade to me. They had a bunch of veteran defections on offense and while the defense added some pieces I still think this team is too one dimensional. The Falcons are an bit of a puzzle and the Hard Knocks showcase always screws up public perception a little. I like the Falcons passing game a little better than the Saints but it’t the pass defense that is worrisome. Wouldn’t be shocked with a upset here.
The pick: Saints 31, Falcons 23
Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44
I think the Vikings could be sneakily interesting this year. All the attention is on Bridgewater, but I actually like Cassel’s chances to hold the job for a while and win a few games. Zimmer will eventually make the defense better, but this year it’ll be in transition. Touch matchup against the Rams defense at home but it got a little easier with the Bradford injury. Count me among the folks who think Shaun Hill a lateral move for them.
The pick: Rams 19, Vikings 13
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5
The Browns offense is going to be an epic disaster. Tate is nice, but not special. I have no idea why people are high on West other than the fact that Tate gets hurt a lot. Hoyer and Manziel are just different styles of bad and no Gordon. Could be a long season for Jordan Cameron. I don’t love the Steelers but I do think they are righting the ship somewhat. I like the additions on defense and the old folks in the secondary will be just fine against this offense.
The pick: Steelers 28, Browns 3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53
I’m not sure if it’s still an unconventional POV at this point, but I expect the Jags to be officially frisky and be close to 8-8. I like the defense and I think the offense will actually be watchable once Bortles gets under center. Unfortunately this game is not that. I’m still not convinced that Chip Kelly’s system isn’t a bit of a gimmick and I think teams may adapt this year in round 2, but I love the Sproles addition for them. The defense is flawed, but it won’t matter against Henne and Gerhart.
The pick: Eagles 29, Jaguars 18
Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40
Two messed up franchises. The Raiders are starting a rookie at QB and the Jets are starting Geno Smith. Smith’s fantasy stats at the end of last year were decent, but I still think he’s a terrible QB. Rex Ryan always manages to hold the defense together even when the names on the jerseys aren’t that impressive, but the secondary looks like a garbage fire. Won’t matter against Oakland.
The pick: Jets 20, Raiders 10
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43
I’ve taken the favorites up until this point which usually spells disaster for a gambler in week 1. In this one, I like the dog even if they are only getting 1.5 on the road. I really like the Bengals on defense. Like everyone else I question Dalton and unlike most I think Gio is overrated and one-dimensional. This pick is more about the Ravens though, they are in for a big, big fall this season…and least season was no treat. They look like the snakebitten injury team and the offense will continue to be really shaky with that horrible running game.
The pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 16
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47
I’ll probably write more about the Bears in the NFC North thread, but I’ll say that I’m split on them this year. The offense will be special again, the defense and special teams will be special. I expect them to have little trouble with EJ Manuel and the Bills in the home opener but the Bills defense will get their licks in. The Bears offense might take a couple games to get rolling due to the lack of work in the preseason and a still gimpy Jordan Mills worries me. I think we get it done, but there will be more drama than there should be.
The pick: Bears 20, Bills 17
Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5
The Texans are by surprise playoff team this year in spite of Ryan Fitzpatrick. I like Arian Foster to stay healthy and the combo of Watt and Clowney will be utterly devastating. Turnovers on offense and big plays in the secondary will be an Achilles, but they will whip a few people. The Skins are counting on a healthy RG3 but few people are talking about the fact that they lost Shanahan and his offensive magic. He’s a terrible HC now, but he still was a heck of a play caller. I’m not convinced Gruden is.
The pick: Texans 27, Redskins 13
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5
No one thinks the Chiefs are legit and I understand the logic. That said, they are still going to be a effective offense with Reid, Charles and a couple good TEs but while Bowe is suspended they will be pretty hopeless at WR. I think the Titans are an enigma, Locker and the WRs are a trendy breakout pick but I really dislike the running game. Sankey is not a star. Neither teams defense is particularly interesting, but I slightly favor the Chiefs because the Titans are adapting to a new scheme. Really, no outcome would surprise me here…but I gotta make a pick, Arrowhead is the tie-breaker.
The pick: Chiefs 17, Titans 14
New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47
I’m all in on Brady this year in fantasy and I think that translates to wins. There’s not a ton of competition in the AFC this year and they are prohibitive favorites in the East. The Pats defense, healthy again, looks like it could be downright scary. This is going to be a long day for the Dolphins who are bringing a squirt gun to to this fight.
The pick: Patriots 40, Dolphins 13
Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5
The Panthers are another popular “regression” team. I’m going to buck that trend a little, since I actually like their defense and passing game a little more than most. I think the Bucs are a little more interesting. Lovie had a lot of work to do but he tends to always get good effort and few mistakes from his teams which would be a complete 180 for the Bucs. Lovie has been a QB and WR killer, and terrible game manager, so it will be interesting to see if McCown can manage to continue his success. Tedford has the keys to the offense and maybe he can do what Trestman did. Playing a hunch here.
The pick: Bucs 23, Panthers 20
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51
Two teams that could find themselves is a complete tailspin by week 6. The Cowpokes are probably a little more fragile with that god awful defense but everything is working against the Niners. I’m not the first to say it, but i think the wheels might come off on Kaepernick this season. Tough division with tough defenses and a tough schedule. Plus the defense isn’t going to set them up with great field position as much in the wake of the injuries and suspensions. I think Romo and the Cowboys with a healthy DeMarco Murray get over on the Niners in Monday’s most over-discussed game.
The pick: Cowboys 34, Niners 30
Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5
Interesting opener for Peyton and Luck. Funny that no one sees the Broncos as a Super Bowl hangover team. Understandable with a weak AFC I guess. And again, another regression team in the Colts. I don’t completely disagree with that due to a much tougher schedule, but I believe in Luck. The Broncos are running without Welker this week which will hurt but Peyton will lean on that run game. No reason to expect the Colts defense to make this one interesting.
The pick: Broncos 40, Colts 20
New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47
Everyone thinks the Lions will be better by default because Schwartz was canned, but how can you be excited for Jim Caldwell? Seriously? I expect this team to flounder again in close games. But…this won;t be one. The Giants are my pick for the #1 overall draft pick in 2015. This team will SUCK.
The pick: Lions 36, Giants 10
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45
Two popular unconventional contender picks. The Chargers particularly are getting all the non-Manning/Brady buzz for the AFC Super Bowl representative. I have no great argument against it, but this is one of those times where I feel like you should zig, when the public zags. The Cardinals aren’t really a Super Bowl pick, but they are a popular pick to supplant the Niners as runner up in the West and a potentially tough out as a wild card. That too makes sense. Palmer will be great in fantasy and kill his team with untimely INTs and the defense will be great when healthy, which it won’t be. I think its weird that the Cards are favorites here, so clearly Vegas considers the Chargers a question mark. Which Rivers will show up?
The pick: Chargers 28, Cardinals 27
