Justin Blackmon with another dui arrest . So much talent wasted, really hope this isn’t repeated with Josh Gordon.
Just saw the Giants/Vikings game was moved to Sunday Night
But I am confused as to why when the skins play the eagles on saturday night. So if the skins win on saturday then that sunday night game means nothing
Unless this means it’s already been fixed for the eagles to win on saturday
Better QB: Cam Newton or Eli Manning?
ELi manning is not a good qb
This is exactly the kind of weak sauce that usually gets trotted out in the “Cam for MVP” discussions. There is in fact a statistical metric that takes game context into account in a quantitative way: Expected Points Added (EPA). The idea is that if it’s 3rd and 2, and you run for 2 yards, that’s a pretty big gain for your team. Specifically, say you were on your own 40 yard line. You might expect to score 2 points before your opponent scores again (this is similar to the EV [expected value] concept from statistics - it doesn’t mean that you’d expect a safety.) However, 1st and 10 from the 42 might be worth 2.5 expected points. So that run is worth 0.5 expected points. However, the same 2 yard run from 1st and 10 from the 42 might actually be worth negative expected points, since 2nd and 8 from your 44 isn’t a better game situation than 1st and 10 on the 42. Anyway, the good news is that a lot of the stats guys (and ESPN) have put a lot of it together for us.
So what do we find? Newton is only 7th among QBs in total EPA. The main reason is that passing accounts for a lot more value than running, and Newton isn’t that great of a passer (10th by EPA, but pretty middle-of-the-pack by almost all metrics). But secondarily, he’s still only 5th in running EPA. The problem is that fans’ intuition isn’t very valuable at understanding actual player value. For one thing, fans don’t see enough games. But all sorts of very human biases creep into our understanding of how players actually impact outcomes.
One quick note about EPA though. It’s probably the best metric we have right now. But it still has problems: unlike baseball, football has so many players impacting a play simultaneously that it can be quite difficult to adjust any QB metric for the quality of his blocking and receivers, as well as the quality of the defense. You’d probably want to also track the quality of the scheme, both offensive and defensive. A QB with a porous line and receivers who run the wrong route who ekes out a first down added a lot more value than a QB who easily got a first down with great blocking and a receiver who gets separation, even though EPA may show the opposite. Cam Newton might be overcoming horrible coaching and rallying his fellow players through his own raw charisma, adding tons of hidden value. But until you can quantify or at least demonstrate any of that, I have no reason to believe it’s true.
Eli Manning is a very good QB. For a few games a year. If those games happen to coincide with a playoff run (which it has, but not nearly frequently enough), well, then he gets to be the highest paid player in the game for a little while. Kinda like Joe Flacco.
Eli Manning is not a great QB, but he is definitely a good QB. Any NFL QB who starts games week in and week out cannot be described as “not good”. He has probably not quite lived up to his top-of-the-draft hype, but he is a regular starting QB. That is definitely “good”, at the least.
Good QB’s don;t miss the playoffs 4 years in a row
If a QB starts every game for 4 seasons and his team misses the playoffs then he is a average QB.
There was an interesting play during the Panthers/Giants game that I haven’t seen mentioned. Carolina was kicking a field goal, and the skycam (that camera suspended on wires over the field) was positioned behind the kicker looking toward the goal posts. But the kick was blocked and you can see the ball come back up and over the skycam. I’ve seen it from a couple different angles and it doesn’t look like it hit the camera or any of the wires.
Does anyone know what the ruling would be if it did; still a live ball or is the camera considered out-of-bounds? Has a live ball ever hit the skycam or any of its wires? I’m sure there are rules on where they can position the camera during a game.
NFL Rulebook, Rule 7, Section 2: "If a loose ball in play strikes a video board, guide wire, sky cam, or any other object, the ball will be dead immediately, and the down will be replayed at the previous spot. "
I’d be plenty annoyed if I blocked the other team’s field goal only to have that rule give them another chance at it.
Anyone know if such a thing has ever happened?
So you’d argue there is a player more valuable than Cam Newton, but who is it? Or would you award the MVP to the best player, not the most valuable? Or are those always the same guy? I mean, there’s no wrong answer. Cam Newton is almost certainly going to win it, so obviously a lot of people think he’s deserving. I’m one of them, but I can understand why someone would argue for Carson Palmer or Tom Brady.
QBR is such a stupid stat. Why would they use a team stat like EPA as the basis for evaluating an individual player?
It ranks Tyrod Taylor 7th, for crying out loud.
I’d go with Palmer, personally. I think the difference between a ‘most valuable’ and ‘best’ player is largely going to be based on position leverage. JJ Watt may very well be the best player in the league (at least pre-injury), but I doubt he can ever add as much value as the top QB. Frankly, 95% of the time ‘MVP’ will be the same as ‘best QB.’
I don’t know exactly how QBR is calculated, because ESPN won’t say. So I can’t really comment on how ‘stupid’ of a stat it is. But there isn’t a single stat that is commonly used that isolates single player performance, so this is a bizarre criticism.
They have to make the flex decision 12 days in advance, so they couldn’t have known for sure it would come down to the Saturday night game. Other options would be Patriots/Jets or Packers/Cardinals, but those were probably protected.
They take the EPA on a play, and divvy it up to the individual players based on their subjective interpretation of their contribution to the play. Applied to a unit as a whole it can mean something, but applied to individuals it’s meaningless. Why is that a bizarre criticism?
QB audibles at the line on 3rd down, WR in motion, counter run with a pulling guard for a 12 yard run and a first down. Who contributed the most to that play?
It’s bizarre to say “QBR is a stupid stat because it doesn’t properly attribute performance to individual players” when that is true of all commonly used football stats. Unless what you’re trying to say is “all football statistics are stupid.” As I said above, EPA isn’t the perfect stat for this very reason, but it is the best one single stat (for QBs) because it is a) transparent, unlike QBR and b) is fully game-context aware.
Ah, I get you. I guess what I’m really saying is that EPA divvied up between individual players, as opposed to units, is questionable enough to render total QBR stupid. Near as I can tell, Tyrod Taylor gets ranked high because he’s an effective scrambler. That’s a useful ability, but to conclude that he contributed X number of EPA on a scramble for a 1st down is wildly subjective.
So the Saints clock-management at the end of the first half was horrible, right? 4th and goal on the one, with about 20 seconds left (and you’re ready to go), you should immediately snap it, rather than letting the clock run down, right?
If you get stopped, the other team has to run a real play from their own one (a kneel-down would result in a safety). Seems like the chance of a safety there is far greater than a touchdown for the team taking over.
If you score, you have to kick off with 10 -15 seconds left, which yeah, has some chance of letting the other team score, but can’t be very much.
And if you score but get a penalty against you on the play, you have another chance to try again [Ahem. Not that that is likely to happen at all.]
Honestly, I wasn’t thinking about this from the penalty aspect, even though that was crucial last night; I was thinking about the benefit of making the other team run at least one play from their own one.
And, while we’re at it, why did Detroit call time-out twice with under a minute in the half and New Orleans having the ball? If it was just to get organized defensively (which appeared to be the case with their fourth time out), sure, no point in saving them, but it seemed like they were trying to save the clock, which I can’t fathom at all.