The Browns waived Montario Hardesty, but were able to replace his name on the roster by grabbing Fozzy Whittaker off waivers.
Wocka Wocka Wocka!
I have heard that the most reliable way to rank teams for handicapping is to rate both the offense and defense respectively on yards-per-point. Very often, the losing team will have a much higher yds/pt rating than the winning team, and this stat, since it only counts actual rushing and passing yards, will reflect the effect of turnovers and sloppy special teams. The bettor who was describing this technique said that it works best averaged over the last four games.
You’re a bit thin-skinned. I guess I’ll have to resort to smileys.
Because points includes things like defensive TDs and special teams TDs? Because none of the major sources (NFL, ESPN, etc.) rank by points?
We’ve had these arguments before (hence my post), and I’m fine with either side because each tells a different and important story. The Eagles offense has been terrific, and they more than kept pace with the Broncos before halftime when the defense completely quit. It was the insinuation the Eagles weren’t deserving of that #2 spot that I responded to. They have been historically good on a per play basis.
Well, they’ve been good on a per play basis, but “*historically *good” suggests quite a bit more than, say, the 6th ranked offensive DVOA through 3 weeks (or 6th in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, etc.). And of course their Week 4 game was hardly one for the ages.
The game remains unchanged but Monday Night Football, the presentation, what a pathetic shell, a whisper of its former self it’s become.
They looked closer than I did, I’m sure. I’ve only seen the game once, live, and they’ve broken it down. But I have to wonder how they can concretely evaluate him without knowing his schematic role. It was his first start, and it seemed like they were giving him a lot of freedom to freelance. So if they told him to just go wild and go after the ball, you might deduct points from him for not setting the edge and handling gap responsibilities and such.
The impression I got watching him was that he was always around the plan, running around everyone else, showing a very quick first step, good speed, and good quickness. He’s one of those athletes that clearly stands out.
I’d have to watch the game again before I can really say more than that, but I suspect their grade of him is his failing to meet incorrect expectations.
They need to bring back Hank Williams, Jr. for the opening.
I don’t want Hank. I want Don.
Firing Hank Williams is the only positive change to Monday Night Football in the past 15 years.
I have to agree. One of the key talking points on the Bengals radio broadcast before the game was how supposedly the veteran tackle Whitworth would crush the rookie Mingo due to injury to Sheard and (someone else I can’t remember). That wasn’t the case, especially after the Bengals completely altered their oline lineup after RG Zeitler got injured and moved Whitworth to LG and backup T Collins to LT, with LG Boling moving to RG. I did not understand that maneuver and still don’t. They ended up reverting back to their original positions when Zeitler came back to play RG, but that aside…it didn’t end up mattering overall.
Mingo played well and was disruptive and the Bengals failed to account for him, amongst many other epic fails in that game for the boys in stripes. Andy Dalton probably played his worst game as a pro, with so many batted balls, under or overthrown passes, bad judgements…and also on the OC Jay Gruden. The Bengals last running play was at like 7:43 in the third quarter, with the Browns leading only 7-3. Major blunder there. The Bengals passed the ball EVERY time after that. You simply cannot win that way.
It was part of the hype before the game. Here’s an article where it get’s broken down. The Eagles were #2 in total yards to the Broncos’ #1. The Broncos were the leaders in passing yards while the Eagles led in rushing yards. So they called 'em #1 and #2.
Looking at other metrics, the question gets fuzzier.
That’s pretty intriguing, does this statistic have a name and is it commonly available via a public betting line?
Curiously, the name of the yards-per-point statistic is “Yards Per Point.” Wacky statisticians and their crazy words.
Team Yards Per Point
Opponent Yards Per Point
I believe the above includes all scoring, not limited to offense and defense.
There is also Points Per Play (and Opponent Points Per Play) which some like better. Yards per play is a good way to judge efficiency, but it doesn’t necessarily correspond to wins and losses.
How to judge this all versus a betting line is your own problem to solve.
It does indeed sound intriguing, and is backed up by that list of rankings.
After cursory inspection, the only anomalies that jumped out to me is that I would have expected the Cowboys (6th) and Eagles (24th) to swap places.
I’m surprised there isn’t something analogous to Offensive Efficiency, or Points per Possession.
In football, like basketball, you trade possessions. You are basically going to have the same number of possessions as your opponent, so scoring more frequently when you have possession is a sure way to win.
Yards per point and points per play would be improved by your non-scoring drives being extra short, which is not exactly better for your team’s prospects.
Shit i accidentally posted to Week 3, I’ll bump this with my post there:
My Redskins are one game out in the East, and absurdly I have hope. Worst Division ever.
I don’t know if you guys follow “NFL QBs on Facebook”, but the Week 4 edition is pretty funny.