Lots of big spreads and potential blowouts this week. Not very many compelling match-ups to be found up and down the slate, even those games that feature quality and/or equal teams seem to lack a certain edge to make them special. Cards-Texans…meh, Seahawks-Jags…yawn, Niners-Falcons…so-so, Jets-Fins…ho hum, Ravens-Bengals…has potential. Pats-Broncos is the best of the games, it’s got the McDaniels angle and looks like it could be a potential playoff match-up but your interest in the game will depend greatly on how much you believe in the Broncos. Even that Pats seem to be lacking a certain something. Perhaps this should be called the 2009 NFLs Lost Weekend.
Sunday, Oct. 11
Early Games
** Minnesota 10 ST LOUIS 40½ **
Impressive work from the Minnetonka Favres last week, they looked solid. I was skeptical of them last week because of their underwhelming performances against some poor teams in the first few weeks and their lack of a downfield passing attack and on MNF they essentially squashed all of those questions. You can play the “are the Pack actually any good” game and as it applies to the Vikings defense I think there’s a case to be made but that offense is for real. The Rams however aren’t any good at all. They’ve been shut out twice and have scored a whopping 24 points all season. They’ll probably be starting Kyle Boller again but will get back both starting Tackles who have been out with injury, so perhaps there could be an uptick compared to last week but I still see little reason to expect them to cover 10 points at home. Perhaps there’s a case to be made that this could be a trap game for the Vikings, going on the road after a huge MNF win, but the Rams are one of the most hopeless teams I’ve ever seen.
The Pick: Vikings 37 - Rams 3
** Dallas 9 KANSAS CITY 43 **
Another gaudy spread, but this one features a comparatively crappy Dallas team getting points on the road. I’m not sure I want to take the Chiefs here though even with Romo looking lost out there and the WRs apparently ready to mutiny. Fact is that the Cowboys running game is legit and consistent and should carry the game by themselves. The Chiefs offense is pretty pathetic and they are converting a miserable 17% of 3rd downs. The limp rushing game isn’t exactly giving them any easy distances but Haley and Cassel appear to be totally overmatched and the offense is unimaginative. I expect KC to capitalize on a couple of Dallas mistakes but they win going away anyways.
The Pick: Cowboys 27 - Chiefs 6
** CAROLINA 3½ Washington 37½ **
These two teams are terrible. People seem to still like Carolina a bit, and coming off a bye week perhaps there’s good reason to. I’m pretty sure Delhomme hasn’t regrown a new arm but I suppose Fox will have wised up and gone back to the run. The Redskins defense is still decent though and if you erase those turnovers last week their offense was pretty efficient. All in all Washington is a much more talented team that does a bunch of stupid things and you need to decide if the Panthers are the type of team that can make them pay. With the leagues worst run defense I’m thinking they’ll aren’t and for as miserable as the Redskins are the schedule seems to be doing them a bunch of favors. With the Chiefs in town next week they will have played 5 consecutive games against the 5 worst teams in the NFL. Lucky for them they are the 6th worst team.
The Pick: Redskins 20 - Panthers 16
** PHILADELPHIA 14½ Tampa Bay 43 **
Wow, 14.5 points? Seems like this game out to be closer than the Vikes-Rams game considering McNabb is playing with a busted rib and the Bucs have actually scraped together a few points here and there this season. Mind you I expect the game to be a blowout in favor of the Eagles but on paper this game is probably a little closer than that Rams game homefield advantage or not. I need McNabb to have a big fantasy week and I need Cadillac Williams to scrounge up a decent fantasy day somehow. I think both are possible and it will be interesting to see how McNabb looks out there with the flak jacket on and throwing on the move with that sore rib. Finally I get to pick a home team!
The Pick: Eagles 44 - Buccaneers 16
** NY GIANTS 16 Oakland 39 **
See everything I said about the Eagles game regarding the spread? It applies double here. Manning is sore and I’d bet serious coin that he’ll be out come Sunday. He’s not saying he’ll be back and he won’t be practicing and with the Raiders coming to town they just don’t need him out there. Plantar Fasciitis is a nagging issue that can’t really be taped or braced away and he’ll feel it on every dropback. They’ve got a monster next week against the Saints and they’d be wise to hold him out this week. The Raiders are without McFadden who hasn’t done much yet anyways, but Mike Bush will be picking up the slack more than capably. More critically the Raiders are hurting on the O Line with 2 starters out and one playing out of position. With Eli out you want to take the points but that means betting on JaMarcus Russell the cross-eyed QB. Still, if Eli is out that means that you have Carr and the Giants WRs matched up against a really solid Raiders secondary and I think Steve Smith gets gobbled up my Asomugha without Eli’s accuracy. Might as well live a little dangerously, but if Eli is in there at close to 100% pretend I never said this.
The Pick: Giants 20- Raiders 18
** BUFFALO 6 Cleveland 40½ **
Yikes, another pig of a game. My gut tells me that the Brownies are due to win one and that last weeks close match with the Bengals portends better things to come, but the Bills have better personnel pretty up and down the roster. The Browns dumped their one big weapon and even if he was a disappointment the shake up in the locker room and practice field probably won’t pay immediate dividends. Derek Anderson is an upgrade but not a difference maker. The Bills offense has been shockingly disappointing and Trent Edwards completely suckered me in this offseason but the Browns could be just the thing to get them on track on the road. If the Browns are able to control the ball and time of possession I suspect that the Bills could be in trouble but I think that’s unlikely to happen and I think TO finally has that breakout game. Still, DA and SenorBeef’s lovechild help the Brownies keep it close.
The Pick: Bills 24 - Browns 21
** BALTIMORE 8½ Cincinnati 42 **
Before the Browns game last week I would have been tempted to take the Bengals to scare the Ravens in this one, but with the Ravens coming off a disappointing loss and the Bengals offense mysteriously clueless I just don’t see it happening. The Bengals D is for real, I think they can make some plays, but Flacco, Rice and Co are just too well balanced overall. Of course those WRs need to learn how to hold onto the ball.
The Pick: Ravens 24 - Bengals 14
** Pittsburgh 10½ DETROIT 44 **
No more Stafford, and my Fantasy teams are praying that it’s just temporary, and without him the Lions will probably regress. He made mistakes but he also made plays. The Lions would start strong but it seemed that the opponents were able to make adjustments at half and Stafford wasn’t able to respond to those changes leading to several second half collapses. Culpepper’s experience might mitigate that but he simply doesn’t have the upside that Stafford has and the Pittsburgh blitz is the worst match-up he could have. He’s not mobile and he doesn’t make good decisions under duress. With Mendenhall looking strong last week you can expect the Steelers to attack with him again this week and the Lions rush defense is pretty porous. It’ll be another big week for him and a big win for the Steelers.
The Pick: Steelers 40 - Lions 16
Late Games
** SAN FRANCISCO 2½ Atlanta 41 **
Crabtree’s in the house now, finally, and he probably won’t make an impact this week, if he even suits up. However it highlights the issue with the Niners, for as well as they have played and as great as that defense looks under the Samurai their passing attack is iffy at best. Crabtree could take him to a whole new level as a team and that at least contributes partly to why he got a deal after all that drama. Against the Falcons they’ll have to be balanced because they will be bringing a ton of pressure on passing downs and without Gore the Niners can’t rely on the run. Defensively they’ll be challenged in the middle of the field with Turner pounding the ball and Gonzo making Willis run like crazy, as good as he is he can’t contend with this much pressure. I expect Ryan to find quite a few holes on the outside as Gonzo gets all the attention and the running attack sucks in the safeties. The Niners are probably a better team but I think this match-up works against them.
The Pick: Falcons 21 - Niners 19
** New England 3 DENVER 41 **
Here’s the interesting game of the week. Wonder what the odds are that I’ll be able to watch it here in Chicago on a bye week. Probably 100-1, though without an NFC East team playing in the afternoon I might have a shot. I just cannot get my head around what’s happening in Denver. I’m thoroughly convinced that McDaniels is a complete moron, listening to him be interviewed instills about as much confidence as hearing a redneck describing the tornado that took his mobile home. I like Kyle Orton, I know him well, but the guy’s arm is weak and he’s not winning any games if they are behind. Their running game has been OK but not dominant and Eddie Royal has basically disappeared. Obviously the offense isn’t winning those games, it’s the defense. That same defense that was abysmal for the last few seasons, I think Mike Nolan deserves more credit for these Ws than McDaniels does. Champ Bailey will once again have to prove he’s elite facing Moss and with Brady a little jumpy I’d be worried if I were a Moss owner. The Pats offense still isn’t where it needs to be and they lost Freddy last week so they have one less weapon to use, they get a healthy Welker but even still the Broncos have the men to contain him. Long story short, the Broncos have to score enough points to support their defense and at home I think they find a way once again.
The Pick: Broncos 24 - Patriots 20
** ARIZONA 5½ Houston 49 **
This game could be fun to watch. I’m not sure either of these teams deserved the preseason hype they got and there were some big red flags in the preseason games which should prove that the meme “the preseason is meaningless” should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Nonetheless, they have loads of talent and should be able to score frequently. The key to the Cards getting back on track offensively, aside from giving up on Warner, is feeding the ball to their backs. Hightower can play but the real difference maker is getting Wells on track. He needs to have a Mendenhall like resurgence and the Texans run defense is just the cure. Schaub and the Texans have great weapons but the Cards defense is underrated. They’ve held their opponents down with the exception of the loaded Colts and that was partly a result of offensive turnovers. Coming off the bye I suspect the Cards will be loaded for bear.
The Pick: Cardinals 32 - Texans 24
** SEATTLE Jacksonville **
The rumor is that Hasselbeck will be back under center for the Seahawks but for now the line is OFF. I’m going to assume he’s in and fill in the line later if I’m right, if I’m wrong we’ll just throw it out. The Seahawks once again are injury riddled up and down the roster and Walter Jones might be calling it a career. At some point maybe we need to assume that this isn’t just bad luck but an institutional issue. The Jags have baffled me again, they are a team I can never really figure out, but this week I feel pretty good backing them based almost solely on the relative strengths of the two teams running games. MJD will have a strong day and the Seahawks committee will not. I worry about the crowd noise in Seattle taking it’s toll on the O Line but assuming the ground attack does it’s job and keeps them out of desperate passing situations they’ll be able to weather the storm.
The Pick: Jaguars 27 - Seahawks 20
** Indianapolis 3½ TENNESSEE 45½ **
I suppose it’s time to throw that whole “the Titans are a good team!” rationale out the window. The Colts have looked like a well oiled machine and the Titans can’t get out of their own way, too many drops and turnovers. That this is just a 3.5 point spread seems insane. I know the Titans and Colts have a history of playing really tight, low scoring games regardless of record but this match-up is really one sided. If the Titans can make the ball control thing work for them they might be able to stay in the game or if the weather shifts in their favor, but Peyton is plying almost flawlessly right now. They rarely lose games like this against 0-4 teams.
The Pick: Colts 26 - Titans 17
Monday, Oct. 12
** NY Jets 1½ MIAMI 36½ **
Edwards is on the practice field for the Jets and he’s expected to be in uniform and on the field come Monday Night. It’d be a little slice of hell for the Clevelanders if he exploded on primetime with a big game. I think it’s unlikely against a formidable Miami defense but I expect Sanchez to get back into form after taking a beating last week in New Orleans. Certainly the crowd will be a big factor as will the Wildcat for the Fins. I think Sanchez will respond to the crowd better after last week and the Jets will find ways to take the pressure off of him, adding Edwards will help in that regard. I think Ryan’s defense will give Henne and the Wildcat fits. The pressure and the 3-4 look are the perfect scheme to counter the Miami attack. Ronnie Brown could have a monster game but he’d have to go crazy to save Henne from the Jets attack. I’m a fan of the Wildcat but I don’t think you can use it as your primary attack the way they did last week against a legitimate defense.
The Pick: Jets 22 - Dolphins 18
Bye Week Teams: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego
