The obvious reasons that Randy Moss might not be successful with the Titans are his attitude and his age. As for the first, I don’t think that we as fans are in any position to confidently assess the effect his personality will have on his play, and in any event he’s had an apparently lousy attitude for essentially his entire career, yet has nonetheless been, on balance, stupendously successful. As to his age, yes, at 33 most successful WRs would be in a state of serious decline (or already retired), but Moss is not merely successful but a *great *player, and great players blow the aging curve with some regularity – for every Michael Irvin, who followed a normal aging curve by declining at 30 and being done by 33, there are probably two or three Jerry Rices or Marvin Harrisons, who still have one or more above average (or even elite) seasons left in them at 34+. So, there’s a healthy precedent for players of Moss’ caliber being very successful into their mid-30s.
However, I think we should expect Moss to fail in Tennessee, even by the standards we would have for him as a WR joining a new team in mid-season. The reason, as I alluded to previously, is grass. Moss is a demonstrably inferior player on natural grass as opposed to artificial turf, and the Titans play their home games on natural grass (they’ll play only two more road games on turf this season).
The raw numbers (through 2009) look like this. On grass, Moss averages: 4.3 r/g, 66.6 y/g, and .6 TDs/g; on Turf, he’s at 5.3, 84.5, and .92. It’s easiest to see the difference if you average those numbers out to a 16-game season. Playing a full season on grass, on average Moss would catch 69 passes for 1,066 yards and 10 TDs – good, but numbers befitting, say, the 15th best receiver in the league instead of a Hall of Famer. However, an average 16-game season on turf would yield 86 catches for 1,351 yards and 15 TDs.
Of course, there are two biasing factors. First, he’s played his home games on turf for all but two seasons, and you would expect a player to have better numbers at home than on the road (though that actually turns out not to be the case with Moss). Second, the two seasons in which Moss played his home games on grass, which account for almost 40% natural grass games, were spent with the '05-‘06 Raiders, by far the worst offenses that Moss has been a part of. To correct for these factors, we take Moss’ artificial turf stats solely from his road games on the fake stuff, and we entirely ignore his two years in Oakland.
If we do that, Moss’ average 16 game seasons would look like this:
Grass (excluding the Oakland years)
76 Receptions
1,170 Yards
11 TDs
Artificial Turf (excluding Oakland AND all home games)
88 Receptions
1,385 Yards
16 TDs
To sum up, the Titans probably think that they’re getting a player who’s aging, unfamiliar with their offense, and likely to be difficult to work with, but who has a good chance to contribute in spite of those problems because he’s a great player. Unfortunately for them, he’s *not *a great player on natural grass, but rather just a good one, and for a merely “good” player that’s simply too much to overcome.
(Now watch Moss throw up a 40/700/8 the rest of the way just to fuck with me…)