I find that number unlikely.
That seems likely to be an error of some sort in the source article, or else they’re using a very stringent definition of “literacy.” This site estimates the illiteracy rate in Kentucky at 12%, as of 2003. I doubt it’s gone up since then.
Is Nate Silver updating his Presidential odds frequently? (We need to know for a subthread about prediction assessment.)
David Rothschild showed Hillary at 90% for a day or two but bumped it to 91% an hour or two ago.
Do you know who else used a very stringent definition of “literacy”?
According to 538 his last update was 9 hours ago.
First batch of projections - IN, KY for Trump, VT for Clinton.
No surprises there.
GA – TOO CLOSE TO CALL. That’s great for Hillary.
VA – Too early to call, but Hillary leading (according to MSNBC).
IN – called for Trump. No surprise, but that it wasn’t in doubt means that we’re probably not getting a huge blowout.
MSNBC calling Indiana & Kentucky for Trump; Vermont for Clinton. No surprises there.
Edit: I’m too slow!
When I was in college, I spent a spring break doing volunteer work in Vanceburg, KY - northeast part of the state. We were informed that in the county which we were in, that 75% of the adult population were “functionally illiterate”.
I just want to tell you good luck. We’re all counting on you.
Well, I would expect the adults to be far less literate than the younger generation.
They have to wait until 8:00PM to start projecting for Florida, as a teensy part of the western section is in the CST.
Calling Florida before the Panhandle closes? What’s the worst that could happen?
OK, as near as I can work out, the source for the 40% illiteracy figure in Kentucky dates from the Kentucky Adult Literacy Survey in 1997, which revealed that 40% of working adults had “modest, marginal or no functional literacy skills.” I wouldn’t take that as gospel in 2016.
Now that states are being called the odds are updating. No significant change from pre-result with the early calls, at 72% for Clinton now.
Typically arrogant Canadian.
Note though, Riemann, that the first numbers to start trickling in from precincts are usually not indicative of the whole. Precincts with fewer people will usually report quicker than those with more people, and some states straddle multiple time zones, and there might be geographic differences.
Bellweather Vigo County, Indiana. The winner there has won the election in the last 15 Presidential elections…Trump is leading.
HuffPo is currently showing Trump with twice as many votes as Clinton in Florida.