Ophelia Windspeed - Hurricane heading toward Ireland and Scotland

Ireland is expected to get at least a storm-force wind lashing. This is so rare that America’s National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic projection maps amusingly cut off in eastern England, which luckily is not expected to get hit hard.

There’s a chance it could still be a hurricane when it hits Ireland which couldn’t be good. But I’m wondering if Ireland and Scotland could still receive a lot of damage if they get hit with a powerful near-hurricane.


Doesn’t seem like a less that hurricane strength storm would do much damage, unless unless you have low lying areas with structures that are prone to flooding, or have weak structures.

I just have to say that ‘Ophelia Windspeed’ woul’d be a great name for a Discworld or Harry Potter character.

Personally, 40 mph winds don’t sound that bad to me. (OK, they do where I live now. Trees, yknow?)

Look at Figure 2 in this Cat6 post here to get an idea of how unusual this storm is.

It was briefly a cat 3 storm. Where normally you wouldn’t expect a cat 1 at all based on ocean temps, etc.

The prediction that it will be only a tropical storm when it hits is optimistic.

Also note that some of the computer models are predicting it will veer off to the north just before hitting. Still would be mean nasty winds but not as destructive as a full hit.

Earlier in the week I was looking at the forecast cone and noticed Ophelia may impact the Azores, which it is/has. Even if it technically may not be a hurricane when it hits Ireland, there can still be significant rain/wind/surge


I was gthinking it would be good for the heroine of a pirate/gothic romance novel.

A friend in Ireland says everyone there is praying Trump won’t come to pass out paper towels :smiley:

This weekend is also the 30th anniversary of the hurricane-that-wasn’t Great Storm across the south of England. Thousands of trees down, power cuts and some dramatic (for us) sights of huge trucks being blown over, roofs ripped off and so forth. I’ve just been watching a segment in the BBC’s Countryfile programme about the effects on old-established woods and forests. Power cuts stopped many or most train services for a few days and fallen trees blocked some lines for even longer. Here’s hoping it isn’t as rough for Ireland.

It wouldn’t be surprising if that was the case (it’s the National Hurricane Center, not the International Hurricane Center), but I don’t see the cutoff you describe.

Here’s an NHC projected track map for Ophelia showing the entire U.K., Ireland, and much of Europe as well.

It’s in the “Tropical Force Wind possibilities” tab which, since the purple covers most of Ireland, it’s projected that they have a greater than 90% chance of receiving a tropical-storm-force storm. But the right side is suddenly cut off rather than making a deformed-cone shape, so one can’t be sure what the chances of a storm are in east England, not that it matters too much unless it keeps up its speed and veers to the east because the probabilities can’t be that high.

Emergency meeting held to discuss Ireland’s preparations for Hurricane Ophelia includes one of the cut off charts. According to Fark.com the limits are 2 degrees West and 60 degrees North.

The forecasts here are that it will move across Ireland and up the west coast of Scotland. Schools are closed across Ireland, most plane and ferry schedules suspended and people generally advised to stay at home.

Unfairly, perhaps, London and the south-east of England are enjoying a warm and peaceful sunny day today, up to 21C </smug>.

While the South-West (Bristol at least) has had a strange blustery yellow sky all morning, apparently caused by Saharan dust being blown up to us. I wouldn’t normally post about the weather (despite being British) but this does quite resemble the ‘radiation storm’ effect in Fallout 4.

Basically everything is closed here. Staring to get quite windy here but main wind will be in a hour or two.

Strange looking at these things on the news over the last few months now it’s outside my window.

First death reported, poor woman in a car that a tree fell on.

If yer in Ireland, keep yer head down and stay safe.

Well, I guess it must be either the computer monitors we’re using or we’re in parallel universes, because all nine of the current NHC graphics charts (including the overall storm track link which I posted) show all of the British Isles.

The NHC site is no longer showing its typical full complement of cyclone-related reports, graphics and discussion (which is what usually happens when a storm becomes extratropical or dissipates). Or maybe they’re deliberately dissing the Brits. :slight_smile:

Hope our Doper friends out that way make it through the storm OK.

Sure they could.

For one thing, if those areas don’t normally get those windspeeds buildings and other structures may not be engineered to withstand them.

For another, a lot of trees will fall down, as will other tall, pole-like structures.

Sure it could.

Yes, I know the post has been banned but for those thinking along similar lines - this will be hours and hours of high winds, blown debris, and the like in addition to lots of water. It sure could cause extensive damage.

Folks in Ireland stay safe.

I’m wondering about the effects of geography. The eastern coast of Ireland, like the eastern coast of the US, mostly slopes up gradually from the sea, but the western coast of Ireland is mostly high, rocky cliffs plunging down into the sea, with at most a narrow strip of beach at the bottom. Might this decrease the impact slightly? On the other hand, the mouth of the Shannon might channel winds and make things locally even worse.

That was my thought too, but looking at the forecast it appears the east and west might be spared high waves but not the south which will be looking at 20-foot high waves. That could be bad if they don’t have a high beach but I don’t know what they do have.

If anyone’s interested, this is the BBC Weather page for central Edinburgh (where I am, on the east coast of Scotland). The black windspeed dots are the ones to watch. We quite often get black dots indicating gusts over 40 mph but upper 40s and into the 50s are much rarer. As you see, the wind’s due here this evening and right through the night.
Over on the west, the speeds are greater; this is the Stranraer page, down in the SW, just across from Northern Ireland.
There’s a box on the page for entering place names or postcodes and it covers the whole UK, and at least some places in Eire.